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Old 28 March 2020, 02:57 AM   #4051
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Italy last 24 hours death toll = 919

Total cases = 86,498
Total deaths = 9,134

That's over 11% of mortality for infected people!
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Old 28 March 2020, 03:02 AM   #4052
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I just saw that, ouch, devastating death number. I think that's the highest they've had yet. The new cases number seems to have flattened out. I keep hoping to see these numbers improve, but they disappoint every day.
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Old 28 March 2020, 03:04 AM   #4053
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Italy last 24 hours death toll = 919

Total cases = 86,498
Total deaths = 9,134

That's over 11% of mortality for infected people!

Why are they suffering so badly? Overwhelmed health care system? Older population? Its pretty puzzling and incredibly sad


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Old 28 March 2020, 03:05 AM   #4054
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Italy last 24 hours death toll = 919

Total cases = 86,498
Total deaths = 9,134

That's over 11% of mortality for infected people!
Total reported cases.

Please don’t get me wrong. I get your point. And it’s horrifying. Just trying to find whatever positivity we can.

Either way it’s terrible. But likely better for all of us if we don’t go down the road of negativity.

Positive can keep our immune systems strong. True story.
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Old 28 March 2020, 03:08 AM   #4055
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Old 28 March 2020, 03:11 AM   #4056
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Why are they suffering so badly? Overwhelmed health care system? Older population? Its pretty puzzling and incredibly sad


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I don't know myself, I keep asking myself the same thing. Their numbers were improving for a few days, looked hopeful and then this. Suffering is the right word. Absolutely tragic.
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Old 28 March 2020, 03:14 AM   #4057
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Why are they suffering so badly? Overwhelmed health care system? Older population? Its pretty puzzling and incredibly sad


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Both of these have been cited as causes for Italy's death rate.

Here's a video from an MD in Madrid, Spain, playing a recording of a statement from another MD in Madrid, who asked that this message get out to the public.

It was posted on a retired UK nurse's YouTube channel, Dr. John Campbell.

It is sobering and sometimes profane.
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Old 28 March 2020, 03:15 AM   #4058
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Italy- their actual cases are much higher than their documented cases. They know it. Getting the case count right is a job for down the road, after people stop dying on gurneys in the hospital hallway. I am ashamed that the US isnít prepared to help them in any material way. Dark days.

Spain- pretty bad there, too.

How is Switzerland holding up? I saw that they are another nation that isnít testing those with mild symptoms.
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Old 28 March 2020, 03:15 AM   #4059
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Why are they suffering so badly? Overwhelmed health care system? Older population? Its pretty puzzling and incredibly sad


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My understanding Italy has a relatively older population, more smokers and extended families relative (no pun intended) to the states.
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Old 28 March 2020, 03:23 AM   #4060
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When comparing mortality rates of Covid-19 to influenza, the argument is frequently made that not every case of Coronavirus is known because not every ill person is tested. Thus, we don't know the denominator in the mortality fraction. However, the same applies to influenza. Millions of people sit at home with influenza and are never tested because they know they have "the flu." The true denominator for flu is just as nebulous as for Covid.
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Old 28 March 2020, 03:24 AM   #4061
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Sorry if this has been covered before but how does this compare to other strains of influenza
Flu in the US runs less than 1%.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
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File Type: jpg Flu.JPG (44.1 KB, 234 views)
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Old 28 March 2020, 03:34 AM   #4062
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Both of these have been cited as causes for Italy's death rate.

Here's a video from an MD in Spain, playing a recording of a statement from another MD in Madrid, who asked that this message get out to the public.

It was posted on another MD's YouTube channel, Dr. John Campbell.

It is sobering and sometimes profane.
This is horrifying.
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Old 28 March 2020, 03:37 AM   #4063
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Why are they suffering so badly? Overwhelmed health care system? Older population? Its pretty puzzling and incredibly sad


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Total reported cases.

Please don’t get me wrong. I get your point. And it’s horrifying. Just trying to find whatever positivity we can.

Either way it’s terrible. But likely better for all of us if we don’t go down the road of negativity.

Positive can keep our immune systems strong. True story.
Very true Seth being positive can reduce stress, anxiety, depression all of which help keep a healthy immune system. A few things in Italy that are making things tough:

-Industrial North has a very high cost of living, skewing population towards elderly or seniors that are generally more wealthy able to afford living costs. Large portion of global workers as well in industry that travel quite frequently. I'm also not convinced the air quality isn't fairly poor when comparing pollution images from satellites and changes since shutdown.

-From a society perspective, the high cost of living has generally resulted in many more multi-generation households compared to some other countries. It's not uncommon for 3 generations to be living under the same roof. Shows the importance of not being carriers for those more vulnerable.

-Huge tourism industry that has a very high global travel rate. Venice really is a town of just tourists nowadays to be honest as an example. Milan, Florence, Torino, Rome are all high turnover in terms of travelers and also restaurant and accommodation industries.

-Generally higher proportion of adults that smoke cigarettes (especially older generations), that increase complications potentially from a respiratory illness.

Hoping they are able to turn the corner, and recovery.
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Old 28 March 2020, 03:59 AM   #4064
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A good interview with Dr. Fauci (Daily Show). Regardless of how you feel about the Daily Show bias, Trevor Noah asks unbiased and informative questions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8A3jiM2FNR8
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Old 28 March 2020, 04:02 AM   #4065
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A good interview with Dr. Fauci (Daily Show). Regardless of how you feel about the Daily Show bias, Trevor Noah asks unbiased and informative questions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8A3jiM2FNR8
Saw that one. I agree it's pretty good. Normally not a daily show fan but Trevor did a good job with this one
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Old 28 March 2020, 04:09 AM   #4066
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Very true Seth being positive can reduce stress, anxiety, depression all of which help keep a healthy immune system. A few things in Italy that are making things tough:

-Industrial North has a very high cost of living, skewing population towards elderly or seniors that are generally more wealthy able to afford living costs. Large portion of global workers as well in industry that travel quite frequently. I'm also not convinced the air quality isn't fairly poor when comparing pollution images from satellites and changes since shutdown.

-From a society perspective, the high cost of living has generally resulted in many more multi-generation households compared to some other countries. It's not uncommon for 3 generations to be living under the same roof. Shows the importance of not being carriers for those more vulnerable.

-Huge tourism industry that has a very high global travel rate. Venice really is a town of just tourists nowadays to be honest as an example. Milan, Florence, Torino, Rome are all high turnover in terms of travelers and also restaurant and accommodation industries.

-Generally higher proportion of adults that smoke cigarettes (especially older generations), that increase complications potentially from a respiratory illness.

Hoping they are able to turn the corner, and recovery.
Climate too.

The weather conditions from 50N L to 30N L are an absolute tinderbox for virus transmissions. Cool temps with low humidity.

Most of the Conus lies between these latitudes. Spain, N Italy...NYC, Iran...etc

All the hotspots are in this zone...there are clearly a lot more cities in there that won’t consistently warm up for another 8weeks or so. Watchout.

New Orleans and Florida would organically be in better shape, but the influx of tourists for Mardi Gras and Spring Break screwed it up. But it’s getting hot in Florida so let’s see what happens.

Not seeing wildfire spread in Mexico and Latin America...yet, so maybe the heat is helping interfere with transmission?

Mother nature’s coming summer fever in the norther hemisphere might be what it takes to put this down for long enough for us to prepare for wave 2.
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Old 28 March 2020, 04:11 AM   #4067
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The mortality rate is completely skewed because it’s based on people who have actually been officially tested as positive. Of course every person who has died has probably counted to the official death number. I personally know several people who have the symptoms but are just staying home and riding it out so they will not count to the official infected number and therefore the real mortality rate must be way lower than the official number.
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Old 28 March 2020, 04:18 AM   #4068
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Yes, I have seen that the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), counting all who arenindected (most of whom are not being counted) May be .3%, still much higher than the flu, but not 2-4%.
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Old 28 March 2020, 04:28 AM   #4069
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The mortality rate is completely skewed because it’s based on people who have actually been officially tested as positive. Of course every person who has died has probably counted to the official death number. I personally know several people who have the symptoms but are just staying home and riding it out so they will not count to the official infected number and therefore the real mortality rate must be way lower than the official number.
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Yes, I have seen that the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), counting all who arenindected (most of whom are not being counted) May be .3%, still much higher than the flu, but not 2-4%.
But the actual number of people infected with influenza is never known every year either. Millions get sick but never go into the clinic or hospital for testing. They stay home and ride it out. Also, many people every year die of influenza related complications of other diseases and are not counted as flu deaths. Comparing mortality rates for epidemic and pandemic infectious diseases is difficult.
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Old 28 March 2020, 04:40 AM   #4070
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But the actual number of people infected with influenza is never known every year either. Millions get sick but never go into the clinic or hospital for testing. They stay home and ride it out. Also, many people every year die of influenza related complications of other diseases and are not counted as flu deaths. Comparing mortality rates for epidemic and pandemic infectious diseases is difficult.
Well yeah this is my exact point. Pretty much every death attributed to these viruses is recorded but every infection is not because most people arenít officially tested (because they just stay home until they get better). So the official mortality rate has to be way higher than the real mortality rate because most people donít contribute to the official infected rate.
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Old 28 March 2020, 05:12 AM   #4071
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Finger prick antigen test to be rolled out for front line NHS workers.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52070199

This is good news, not so much from a selfish perspective, but firstly because the staff at my GP practice are utterly terrified (and needlessly so, for the most part, I think). I rather suspect many of them will be pleasantly surprised to find theyíve already been infected, which in turn will boost morale for the serious uptick in workload I anticipate in the coming weeks. Secondly we might be able to keep most of the doctors and nurses in the building instead of everybody with a cough instantly having to self isolate.
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Old 28 March 2020, 05:12 AM   #4072
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https://www.beckershospitalreview.co...sis-finds.html

Becker's prediction

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Old 28 March 2020, 05:18 AM   #4073
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Finger prick antigen test to be rolled out for front line NHS workers.


Every time I hear/see that story, I canít help but think of Elizabeth Holmes and Theranos.

I hope they can produce reliable results during trials.


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Old 28 March 2020, 05:24 AM   #4074
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Every time I hear/see that story, I can’t help but think of Elizabeth Holmes and Theranos.

I hope they can produce reliable results during trials.


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The Theranos thing is a very interesting and cautionary tale.

However I understand Public Health England has been undertaking a vigorous process of validation on the tests behind the scenes which is close enough to completion for them to feel confident enough to announce the roll out.
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Old 28 March 2020, 05:25 AM   #4075
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https://www.beckershospitalreview.co...sis-finds.html

Becker's prediction

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2300 deaths a day by the second week of April??? Well, we are going to find out.
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Old 28 March 2020, 05:26 AM   #4076
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Finger prick antigen test to be rolled out for front line NHS workers.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52070199

This is good news, not so much from a selfish perspective, but firstly because the staff at my GP practice are utterly terrified (and needlessly so, for the most part, I think). I rather suspect many of them will be pleasantly surprised to find theyíve already been infected, which in turn will boost morale for the serious uptick in workload I anticipate in the coming weeks. Secondly we might be able to keep most of the doctors and nurses in the building instead of everybody with a cough instantly having to self isolate.
Iím glad theyíre doing that. Thank you for posting. Blessings and safety to you friend.
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Old 28 March 2020, 05:37 AM   #4077
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The Theranos thing is a very interesting and cautionary tale.

However I understand Public Health England has been undertaking a vigorous process of validation on the tests behind the scenes which is close enough to completion for them to feel confident enough to announce the roll out.


Yes, I donít doubt that - I believe they will do it right.

The Theranos thought that popped to mind was that her defense case would ironically strengthen if this proves to be effective. Defense attorney can say ďSee, Elizabeth was just ahead of her time.Ē

But back on topic, each and every innovative outcome from this pandemic moves humankind another step ahead for the future. Thanks for sharing the update.


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Old 28 March 2020, 06:34 AM   #4078
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I know many of us are dealing with the stress of this pandemic. Some are quarantined, others voluntarily isolating and all of us separated from socializing and hanging out - that which was a normal part of life. Just getting out of the apartment or house for a walk is now a blessing.

Today I had a little revelation that I thought worthy of sharing.

Iíve been walking and running in parks for years. But the parks are crowded due to kids out of school and workers furloughed.

I went to a different place today and found it virtually empty - peaceful and quiet - my familyís cemetery. I usually go for the reasons many cultures do, and usually every month.

So today it was a revelation, as well as a veneration of the family.
All their names on granite and marble row upon row. A peaceful walk away from the crowds and bustle of the city. Birds and trees and squirrels and monuments to courage. A quiet stillness on a warm early Summerís day.

Two miles along the paths and roads lifted spirits more than any past visit in this new reality we all share.

So maybe that idea is something you might feel warmed by doing - and maybe take a flower or two with you.

Have a great weekend wherever you are.


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Old 28 March 2020, 06:47 AM   #4079
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I know many of us are dealing with the stress of this pandemic. Some are quarantined, others voluntarily isolating and all of us separated from socializing and hanging out - that which was a normal part of life. Just getting out of the apartment or house for a walk is now a blessing.

Today I had a little revelation that I thought worthy of sharing.

Iíve been walking and running in parks for years. But the parks are crowded due to kids out of school and workers furloughed.

I went to a different place today and found it virtually empty - peaceful and quiet - my familyís cemetery. I usually go for the reasons many cultures do, and usually every month.

So today it was a revelation, as well as a veneration of the family.
All their names on granite and marble row upon row. A peaceful walk away from the crowds and bustle of the city. Birds and trees and squirrels and monuments to courage. A quiet stillness on a warm early Summerís day.

Two miles along the paths and roads lifted spirits more than any past visit in this new reality we all share.

So maybe that idea is something you might feel warmed by doing - and maybe take a flower or two with you.

Have a great weekend wherever you are.


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Good idea honestly. I went cycling today and man the bike paths were busy. Felt like I was probably riding through clouds of aerosol CV yikes
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Old 28 March 2020, 06:53 AM   #4080
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Good idea honestly. I went cycling today and man the bike paths were busy. Felt like I was probably riding through clouds of aerosol CV yikes
Weird -- parks and paths in NYC (at least Riverside on the westside) are empty. play soccer with the kids every day for 3 hours each morning and no one in sight. It's great.

That and to go margaritas from the restaurants around me and things are looking up!
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