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Old 3 April 2020, 02:11 AM   #4861
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Yes but he saying several months for the most vulnerable. As you can tell from his article heís anxious to get people back to work.
Actually he says 10 to 12 weeks for most non-immune, non-infected low risk workers to return to work. That puts his suggestion 3 months away assuming the testing takes place. You good with that?


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He seems to assume that we can't be re-infected or we develop an immunity. I don't think that's been established yet.
Also some of his assumptions are based on a recent study from China. Well how do we feel about trusting that data set?
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Old 3 April 2020, 02:12 AM   #4862
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He seems to assume that we can't be re-infected or we develop an immunity. I don't think that's been established yet.
I think itís likely we develop immunity (but of course the virus will probably mutate)

If we donít develop immunity, we are wasting our time in shutdown as we canít afford to do so until a vaccine is developed.
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Old 3 April 2020, 02:12 AM   #4863
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Doc, it gives me comfort that you are on this thread.
Thank you. Thatís very kind. Stay well.
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Old 3 April 2020, 02:13 AM   #4864
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I received this email from the company making Wolf watch winders. You might want to join their mail list as they are going to be offering a series of giveaways and promotions.

Itís a nice gesture by them.

Together the world is facing a truly unprecedented situation. The global COVID-19 pandemic is affecting our families, our businesses, our communities and our way of life. The struggles we face at WOLF mirrors those felt by people all around the world. As most of us have been relegated to work from home, we collectively have time to reflect and maybe even see the world around us with new eyes.

At WOLF we donít make toilet paper, hand sanitizer or masks. Our purpose for over 185 years has been to Protect Your Legacyís. It is our mission to honour your stories and the priceless possessions you have entrusted with us.

Although our offices are closed our website WOLF1834.com remains open and we are prepared to continue to serve you. We thank you for all you have helped us build over the past 185 years, we are committed to being a partner in the days and years ahead. We want to find ways to stay connected with all of you, in the up-coming weeks we will share a series of giveaways, promotions, and messages like the one below that remind us that the new restrictions on our lives, are simply an act of love.

ďAnd then the whole world walked inside and shut their doors and said, we will stop it all. Everything. To protect our weaker ones, our sicker ones, our older ones. And nothing in the entire history of humankind ever felt more like love than this.Ē - Unknown

All the best,
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Old 3 April 2020, 02:35 AM   #4865
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He seems to assume that we can't be re-infected or we develop an immunity. I don't think that's been established yet.
More than this. In Italy we already had people reinfected.

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Old 3 April 2020, 02:38 AM   #4866
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What is the TP situation in your locales?
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Old 3 April 2020, 02:40 AM   #4867
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Yes but he saying several months for the most vulnerable. As you can tell from his article heís anxious to get people back to work.
Anxious though he may be to get people back to work (like most of sane people), he is not recommending that those under 60 go back without testing. And as Paul indicated, his time period for testing is extremely optimistic. But let's go with it. He is still not saying a few weeks. Just add his numbers up.

His approach is similar to the approach by AEI and the White House CV Task Force. Wait for it to peak, and then verify in community by community, ease restrictions and then test and tract to maintain. Again, this is not projected to happen in a few weeks.

My hope is that the overwhelming majority of people in the US follow the guidelines and that this in turn cuts the numbers and the time line. But we shall have to see the data.

Stay safe.
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Old 3 April 2020, 02:42 AM   #4868
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What is the TP situation in your locales?
I have heard not good. I started slowly buying a little extra of everything back when China first admitted there was an issue. So, my butt is clean.

Stay safe.
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Old 3 April 2020, 02:43 AM   #4869
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This is an excellent article on how it is often true that not all exposures to this are equal. It is something I have wondered about for some time, and this piece summarizes it very well.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/o...iral-dose.html

(It may say you have to log in depending on the device you're using but I just clicked connect with Google and it revealed the entire article without me even having to sign in)
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Old 3 April 2020, 02:45 AM   #4870
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What is the TP situation in your locales?
Soft, strong and unbeatably long.
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Old 3 April 2020, 02:47 AM   #4871
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Soft, strong and unbeatably long.
Right answer, wrong question?
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Old 3 April 2020, 02:52 AM   #4872
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the Coronavirus outbreak thread

We were in Costco yesterday and there was no evidence of a TP shortage. Pallets available of Charmin and the store brand. That said. One of the chain grocery store was still low. Just a few packages on the shelves.

One of the interesting reads after this is after this is over is TP demand will plummet.
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Old 3 April 2020, 02:54 AM   #4873
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Right answer, wrong question?
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Old 3 April 2020, 02:56 AM   #4874
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Old 3 April 2020, 03:00 AM   #4875
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More than this. In Italy we already had people reinfected.

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The medical and scientific community is highly skeptical of reinfections.

Worst case estimates is that we should get a minimum of a few years of immunity, and it could be much longer.

Itís tough to sort out truth from mistake in all the chaos.


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Old 3 April 2020, 03:04 AM   #4876
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.
Blansky:

I am assuming this is a family photo?

Stay safe.
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Old 3 April 2020, 03:09 AM   #4877
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Blansky:

I am assuming this is a family photo?

Stay safe.
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Old 3 April 2020, 03:14 AM   #4878
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What is the TP situation in your locales?
After initially unravelling completely it seems to have partially rerolled. Not a problem for me. I installed a Kohler washlet seat about 2 months ago so I'm TP free.
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Old 3 April 2020, 03:18 AM   #4879
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Masks always helped and is why Asia is doing well in terms of infected and deaths. They couldnt advocate masks early on because there wasnt enough for the front line heath care workers and they didnt want people hording them like toilet paper. Now more are becoming available so there ya go. At least thats my take on it.
Possibly... but I think they simply didn’t realize how contagious the virus is... nor the full benefit of the mask protection

I believe the masks helps overall due to the fact that lotta people don’t know if they have the virus or not. And in crowded and confined areas like subways or even elevators, one infected person can infect everyone around them. Not just by coughing... but also by talking (u will be surprised how much people spit when they speak)

If everyone wore a mask in public area, it would definitely slow down the spread of the virus.

Be safe everyone
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Old 3 April 2020, 05:05 AM   #4880
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the Coronavirus outbreak thread

A few days back I mentioned how quite the skies were with the 70% reduction in airplane traffic overhead.

Today, I noticed something different.

Did you notice that there are no more (or drastically reduced) election campaign ads on the networks, internet, radio, etc?


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Old 3 April 2020, 05:13 AM   #4881
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A few days back I mentioned how quite the skies were with the 70% reduction in airplane traffic overhead.

Today, I noticed something different.

Did you notice that there are no more (or drastically reduced) election campaign ads on the networks, internet, radio, etc?


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I have noticed that too. Silver lining.
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Old 3 April 2020, 05:19 AM   #4882
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I’m not sure if this also happened in USA and across the world but in the UK at 8pm last Thursday and this evening people stopped what they were doing and applauded the Medical carers/doctors/nurses etc.

I live on the outskirts of a large English city with views over it and this evening my family stood on our doorstep and joined in.

A really loud uproar of people near and far clapping, cheering, beeping horns and letting off fire-works – a properly moving experience.
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Old 3 April 2020, 05:21 AM   #4883
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Iím not sure if this also happened in USA and across the world but in the UK at 8pm last Thursday and this evening people stopped what they were doing and applauded the Medical carers/doctors/nurses etc.

I live on the outskirts of a large English city with views over it and this evening my family stood on our doorstep and joined in.

A really loud uproar of people near and far clapping, cheering, beeping horns and letting off fire-works Ė a properly moving experience.
Wow. That had to be quite moving.
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Old 3 April 2020, 05:25 AM   #4884
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Needs to be a national defense directive to all consumer apparel companies to make masks. Brooks Brothers has done this already.

Government issued masks at cost ($1 or less) at Wal-mart/CVS/Target parking lots each week with the presentation of a valid driver's license.

Significant penalties for non-mask wear outside home ($5000 fine) enforced by national guard and local police. Same thing with employers.

This isn't different from what is happening in China/Taiwan etc.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/asia/...hnk/index.html

Writing last month, Adrien Burch, an expert in microbiology at the University of California, Berkeley, noted that "despite hearing that face masks 'don't work,' you probably haven't seen any strong evidence to support that claim. That's because it doesn't exist."
In fact, there is evidence of the exact opposite: that masks help prevent viral infections like the current pandemic.
Burch pointed to a Cochrane Review -- a systemic analysis of published studies on a given topic -- which found strong evidence during the 2003 SARS epidemic in support of wearing masks. One study of community transmission in Beijing found that "consistently wearing a mask in public was associated with a 70% reduction in the risk of catching SARS."

Simple math. You wear a mask, I wear a mask. My probability of getting infected is reduced by 1 - (0.3 X 0.3) = 91%

Go back to work in May with protection. Isolate the old and immuno-compromised. Be like Japan (world's largest aging population but low deaths/infection) - be a ninja. Even better, be a Fatninja
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Old 3 April 2020, 05:35 AM   #4885
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Iím not sure if this also happened in USA and across the world but in the UK at 8pm last Thursday and this evening people stopped what they were doing and applauded the Medical carers/doctors/nurses etc.

I live on the outskirts of a large English city with views over it and this evening my family stood on our doorstep and joined in.

A really loud uproar of people near and far clapping, cheering, beeping horns and letting off fire-works Ė a properly moving experience.
I live in a small village in North Yorkshire, everyone was out clapping.
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Old 3 April 2020, 05:59 AM   #4886
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Iím not sure if this also happened in USA and across the world but in the UK at 8pm last Thursday and this evening people stopped what they were doing and applauded the Medical carers/doctors/nurses etc.

I live on the outskirts of a large English city with views over it and this evening my family stood on our doorstep and joined in.

A really loud uproar of people near and far clapping, cheering, beeping horns and letting off fire-works Ė a properly moving experience.
Happens every night in NYC at 7:00PM
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Old 3 April 2020, 06:04 AM   #4887
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A few days back I mentioned how quite the skies were with the 70% reduction in airplane traffic overhead.

Today, I noticed something different.

Did you notice that there are no more (or drastically reduced) election campaign ads on the networks, internet, radio, etc?


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This may make sense as the advertiser or in this case the election campaign may not want to be associated with all the negative news. Negative by association.... Iím guessing
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Old 3 April 2020, 06:10 AM   #4888
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- Brilliant!
Certainly made me feel proud and I'm sure it must make the people we are applauding feel appreciated
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Old 3 April 2020, 06:16 AM   #4889
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Needs to be a national defense directive to all consumer apparel companies to make masks. Brooks Brothers has done this already.

Government issued masks at cost ($1 or less) at Wal-mart/CVS/Target parking lots each week with the presentation of a valid driver's license.

Significant penalties for non-mask wear outside home ($5000 fine) enforced by national guard and local police. Same thing with employers.

This isn't different from what is happening in China/Taiwan etc.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/asia/...hnk/index.html

Writing last month, Adrien Burch, an expert in microbiology at the University of California, Berkeley, noted that "despite hearing that face masks 'don't work,' you probably haven't seen any strong evidence to support that claim. That's because it doesn't exist."
In fact, there is evidence of the exact opposite: that masks help prevent viral infections like the current pandemic.
Burch pointed to a Cochrane Review -- a systemic analysis of published studies on a given topic -- which found strong evidence during the 2003 SARS epidemic in support of wearing masks. One study of community transmission in Beijing found that "consistently wearing a mask in public was associated with a 70% reduction in the risk of catching SARS."

Simple math. You wear a mask, I wear a mask. My probability of getting infected is reduced by 1 - (0.3 X 0.3) = 91%

Go back to work in May with protection. Isolate the old and immuno-compromised. Be like Japan (world's largest aging population but low deaths/infection) - be a ninja. Even better, be a Fatninja


The link you posted isnít working but Iím guessing you may have meant the White House may ask or require Americans to wear masks when outdoors. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trum...ry?id=69914514

I think until we know who was asymptomatic or mildly infected, and has recovered successfully, the idea of simple masks makes sense.

Good on BB for doing their part - I had not heard that. But as you know they are in a tiny minority of brands who still make clothing in the US.

The NE Pats just flew in 1 million N95ís from China in their team plane.




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Old 3 April 2020, 06:20 AM   #4890
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What is the TP situation in your locales?
Zero!! Aisles have been bare for weeks.
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