the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by Pantheon

yes, Iran is reporting 4.4% mortality rate. Even based on 2% at 325m~ population the US that equates to about 6.5 million deaths. The death rate of the flu is only 0.1% vs the data we have on the coronavirus. What is so scary about this coronavirus how contagious it is. Flu is most contagious during the first 3-4 days. In fact my mother just had the flu and even though she lives with me and my son, neither of us got it just from my mother being careful. Keep in mind we don't have a vaccine against Coronavirus vs the flu as well so that plays a big factor.

I'm not worried as much for myself as I've got an immune system akin to a steam roller but I definitely fear for my parents and other friends and relatives.

Who says it’s more contagious than the flu? If that were the case then shouldn’t more than 78,000 Chinese people have this virus? Shouldn’t literally millions upon millions of them have the virus? Millions and millions of Chinese people got the flu. This is a huge question of mine. I would love to know the answer to it. I would love to know the answer to it backed up by DATA

[Arcticsub]

Originally Posted by V25V

I am saying it should put things into perspective. A vaccine has already been entered into trials in humans which should begin in April (there are plenty of articles on this). I just do not think its as big of a deal as everyone seems to make it (media). Social media, big news outlets, etc have been making these "headlines" about it for weeks now and of course everyone is going to get stirred up when that's all they hear/read about.

That vaccine you're referring to won't be available until 2021. It is a big deal for people in at risk groups.

[Moggo]

Originally Posted by daveathall

It is all very well for those young and fit, but when one's frail mother or father dies because of it long before their time is due. One would presume that it's quite a shocker. I'm of the opinion that this will spread more than seems to be thought by the majority commenting on this thread.

This.


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[Moggo]

British Airways among others in the UK now cancelling flights.

If it’s no big deal as many here are saying are we saying a company like BA who are all about profit are buying into the hype?!


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[steeevvvooo]

Originally Posted by Moggo

British Airways among others in the UK now cancelling flights.

If it’s no big deal as many here are saying are we saying a company like BA who are all about profit are buying into the hype?!


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Personally I think there has to be more to it than we are officially told. We didn't have flight or city lock downs with past pandemics right? The official reaction scares me more than it should...

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[Patton250]

Originally Posted by Moggo

British Airways among others in the UK now cancelling flights.

If it’s no big deal as many here are saying are we saying a company like BA who are all about profit are buying into the hype?!


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I would imagine they are canceling flights because they would be empty flights. As I’m sure you’re aware many people are canceling their trips because of the ”hype”

[Knappo 1307]

Originally Posted by steeevvvooo

Personally I think there has to be more to it than we are officially told. We didn't have flight or city lock downs with past pandemics right? The official reaction scares me more than it should...

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My guess is we have learned from them, hence the lockdowns now.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by steeevvvooo

Personally I think there has to be more to it than we are officially told. We didn't have flight or city lock downs with past pandemics right? The official reaction scares me more than it should...

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That’s my thoughts too. Watching what the CCP is doing vs saying concerns me. Hopefully they are just flexing their control.

[Zakalwe]

Originally Posted by steeevvvooo

Personally I think there has to be more to it than we are officially told. We didn't have flight or city lock downs with past pandemics right? The official reaction scares me more than it should...

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There’s a big difference between how any given individual might view the risk posed by the virus and how a government must react to it.

I’m in front line healthcare and am probably at higher risk than most of contracting it if it spreads significantly. I’m also (in isolation) not bothered about the prospect. I’m young and healthy and highly unlikely to be severely affected should I contract it.

However the law of large numbers means that any government which actually values its citizens absolutely has to take it very seriously, which means making contingency plans for implementing very disruptive action to try to contain the virus - even if the worst-case-scenario projections are unlikely. I do not accept that the currently quoted mortality figures are definitely accurate (I expect the number to drop as time goes by, though I accept I could be wrong) however if only 10% of Brits were to become infected and even if the currently mortality figure is a 10-fold over-estimate, that would mean 140 000 deaths. Even if the government doesn’t give a toss about the plebs, voters might not forget in a hurry the people at the top who ignored those kinds of numbers.

[StarvingBillionaire]

Coronavirus and 5G? That's interesting, even if it would sound too far-fetched:

Originally Posted by Yzord

You do know that many 5G installations are being tested atm without being documented?

Also seen the video's of people from Wuhan who dropped dead instantly without being ill? They were just walking in the streets and all of a sudden they dropped dead. How is that related to a flu?

5G operates over a 60Ghz band through oxygen. The same oxygen we breath in through our lungs. As 2.4Ghz rubs molecules and warms up moisture in a microwave, 60Ghz rubs molecules in oxygen which could prevent being usable for our organes if we breath it in. Endresult, our organes fails to work.

Because they say Corona is a lung disease following up from a virus it could be well connected to 5G. But because 5G is a "must go" they had to think of something else to give the blame.

Please, do not take for granted that i "know for sure" it is the 5G. But when there was a Mexican flu a while back, no country locked a city back then. Why are they locking cities these days? And if they lock cities, why are they still flying?

And what about Lombardy italy? What do you think of this article?

http://www.justnews.es/2019/12/09/it...ts-from-monza/

And what about Bavaria germany?

https://www.iis.fraunhofer.de/en/pro...5gbavaria.html

All areas where Corona has been located for the first time in these countries.

Don't take for granted it is a flu. Personally i think (and that means i do not know for sure) that there is much more happening then a flu.

[V25V]

Originally Posted by Patton250

I would imagine they are canceling flights because they would be empty flights. As I’m sure you’re aware many people are canceling their trips because of the ”hype”

Exactly.

Look, I am not saying that this isn't something we should take seriously. I am just saying if you watch CNN/MSNBC or any other, or follow them on social media, its literally their headline with constant posts/articles about it. With it being so sensationalized by them, of course it will be received with a lot of people being freaked out. People are buying up water in stores and masks...... come on. I just think this will be worked out and it is being too hyped up.

But I am no doctor, I guess I just play one on TRF.

[Moggo]

Whichever way this works itself out there are going to be a huge amount of ‘I told you so.....’ threads!

At the end of the day we are all guessing.


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[joeychitwood]

Originally Posted by V25V

You are going to take Iran's mortality rate and apply it to our population? Is that really a fair use of that data? I personally do not think it is.

The mortality rate number vary wildly. The most reliable estimate I've read comes from Michael Osterholm at the University of Minnesota. He estimates the death rate in China to be about 0.9%, less than the 2-4% numbers tossed about, but still 9 times more deadly than influenza.

And when considering those who are at higher risk of death from Covid-19, people with high blood pressure (hypertension-HTN) fall into a high risk category. How many friends and family members does each of us have afflicted with HTN?

I really don't think enough data has been complied on the infection to make reliable predictions about the outbreak's future course, but as a physician, I am very concerned at the rapid spread and alarming death rates compared to other community-acquired infections. And I'm not holding my breath for a quick vaccine.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by Moggo

Whichever way this works itself out there are going to be a huge amount of ‘I told you so.....’ threads!

At the end of the day we are all guessing.


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Exactly right. Nobody knows. I just wish we could all find out together without hyping it up and scaring everyone into a massive worldwide financial crisis. If things get as bad as some people feel they will then a financial crisis will happen on its own but we will feel pretty stupid if this is no worse than a regular flu but we destroy the economy anyway.

[V25V]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

The mortality rate number vary wildly. The most reliable estimate I've read comes from Michael Osterholm at the University of Minnesota. He estimates the death rate in China to be about 0.9%, less than the 2-4% numbers tossed about, but still 9 times more deadly than influenza.

And when considering those who are at higher risk of death from Covid-19, people with high blood pressure (hypertension-HTN) fall into a high risk category. How many friends and family members does each of us have afflicted with HTN?

I really don't think enough data has been complied on the infection to make reliable predictions about the outbreak's future course, but as a physician, I am very concerned at the rapid spread and alarming death rates compared to other community-acquired infections. And I'm not holding my breath for a quick vaccine.

[77T]

I agree with those who say some people have been panicked by the constant news coverage.

There are millions more adults now than the last big virus outbreak (H1N1) - and their thinking has been shaped by social media hype as well.

The news will get worse until educational efforts help people reshape their current general hygiene profile - that could help a lot - and until warm weather might stem the life span of the virus on objects that could reduce transfer contamination.

If I might add a thought...
H1N1 frightened many at the outset. Thousands died and eventually it was brought under control by vaccinations.

However it still kills.

IMHO, if we don’t respect history we repeat the mistakes of the past. The advice about avoiding this new Coronavirus is almost identical the the advice for H1N1. If you read up then you smarten up.

And H1N1 is still with us - it just migrates, goes dormant, resurges and still kills thousands each year. While that is true, it doesn’t mean ignoring the good advice millions have forgotten. Here is what CDC published on February 10, 2010...sound familiar?

Take these everyday steps to protect your health:
Cover your nose and mouth with a tissue when you cough or sneeze. Throw the tissue in the trash after you use it.

Wash your hands often with soap and water. If soap and water are not available, use an alcohol-based hand rub.*

Avoid touching your eyes, nose or mouth. Germs spread this way.
Try to avoid close contact with sick people.

If you are sick with flu-like illness, CDC recommends that you stay home for at least 24 hours after your fever is gone except to get medical care or for other necessities. (Your fever should be gone without the use of a fever-reducing medicine.*) Keep away from others as much as possible to keep from making others sick.

Other important actions that you can take are:
Follow public health advice regarding school closures, avoiding crowds and other social distancing measures.

Be prepared in case you get sick and need to stay home for a week or so; a supply of over-the-counter medicines, alcohol-based hand rubs * (for when soap and water are not available), tissues and other related items could help you to avoid the need to make trips out in public while you are sick and contagious.


https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/qa.htm#d

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[6538]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

Thank you! The voice of intelligence and reason. The concept that an educated adult could believe a $.50 paper mask designed to filter sawdust would protect them from a virus is ludicrous. You will protect yourself better by frequently washing your hands. I believe there is one confirmed case in San Diego county, but I see people walking around everywhere with these stupid masks that look foolish.

Anyone hear about the vampire virus? If you wear garlic around your neck you won’t be infected.

You should realize there are different surgical masks for different medical purposes. The standard surgical mask you see on TV in medical dramas we hand to patients with a cough or flu like symptoms to prevent them spreading their germs. N95 masks are given to healthcare workers. These are respirators and filter 95% of airborne biological particles. They are not advertised to keep you 100% safe from a pathogen, but it is better than not having something protecting your mouth and nose.

You are absolutely spot on about proper hygiene. If you could see the bacteria on surfaces you casually touch in everyday life...you would remember to NOT TOUCH YOUR FACE.

[steeevvvooo]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

There’s a big difference between how any given individual might view the risk posed by the virus and how a government must react to it.

I’m in front line healthcare and am probably at higher risk than most of contracting it if it spreads significantly. I’m also (in isolation) not bothered about the prospect. I’m young and healthy and highly unlikely to be severely affected should I contract it.

However the law of large numbers means that any government which actually values its citizens absolutely has to take it very seriously, which means making contingency plans for implementing very disruptive action to try to contain the virus - even if the worst-case-scenario projections are unlikely. I do not accept that the currently quoted mortality figures are definitely accurate (I expect the number to drop as time goes by, though I accept I could be wrong) however if only 10% of Brits were to become infected and even if the currently mortality figure is a 10-fold over-estimate, that would mean 140 000 deaths. Even if the government doesn’t give a toss about the plebs, voters might not forget in a hurry the people at the top who ignored those kinds of numbers.

Appreciate the comment and seriously, take care out there. The NHS is a cornerstone of modern Britain and anyone working on the front line are heros/heroines.

Information and disinformation is so much more easily accessible now vs just a few years ago it makes distilling the truth so much harder. Hopefully this all blows over but doesn't hurt to be skeptical and take precautions.

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[daveathall]

Originally Posted by steeevvvooo

Appreciate the comment and seriously, take care out there. The NHS is a cornerstone of modern Britain and anyone working on the front line are heros/heroines.

Yes, yes, yes.

[Zakalwe]

Originally Posted by steeevvvooo

Information and disinformation is so much more easily accessible now vs just a few years ago it makes distilling the truth so much harder.

Ain’t that the truth!

[Cryten]

The CDC have removed the testing data from their website.

I hope this is just another glitch in the matrix and not their attempt to hide the fact that their testing hasn't increased as promised.

Let's hope it returns.

[StarvingBillionaire]

The NYC doctor basically says, "Don't believe the false assurance. It will spread. We severely lack testing facilities. The mortality rate from the reliable S. Korean study is .2-.4%; but it's still twice as high as flu":

[zengineer]

Originally Posted by Moggo

Whichever way this works itself out there are going to be a huge amount of ‘I told you so.....’ threads!

At the end of the day we are all guessing.


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If there are a bunch then you can start one pointing out that you predicted their surge.

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[SPMN]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Who says it’s more contagious than the flu? If that were the case then shouldn’t more than 78,000 Chinese people have this virus? Shouldn’t literally millions upon millions of them have the virus? Millions and millions of Chinese people got the flu. This is a huge question of mine. I would love to know the answer to it. I would love to know the answer to it backed up by DATA

The truth is we don't have enough data to currently know exactly what the transmissibility is. They did a study on the Princess Diamond cruise ship and found that on average, each person would infect 2.28 others. This is known as the "R-Nought." The seasonal flu has an r-nought value of about 1.3. So the average infected person with the normal flu will infect 1.3 others. Some studies have the Covid 19 r-nought value higher, at almost 3. The WHO estimates it between 1.3 and 2.5. I don't think I've seen a single study showing its transmissibility is lower than the seasonal flu.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-persp...-23-death-rate

It's important to know that environmental factors play a role in this number. Are the dynamics on a cruise ship the same as the real world? Probably not. Then again, is the population of a cruise ship healthier and more resilient to catching a virus than the general population? Maybe, maybe not. We need time and data to study these things.

So, in a nutshell, that's the cause of the fear. At best, it transmits the same as the seasonal flu, but kills at a rate 20x higher. At worst, it transmits about double the seasonal flu, and still kills 20x as many infected.

As to why China isn't experiencing many millions infected...well they put in place some of the most severe measures to stop the spread of a disease than any country ever has before. They put an entire province under quarantine, complete with drones that would identify people who were moving around. They built multiple hospitals in 10 (TEN!) days.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...ther-countries

But if you think they did all that because of the western media, well, more power to you I guess.

[Pantheon]

Originally Posted by SPMN

The truth is we don't have enough data to currently know exactly what the transmissibility is. They did a study on the Princess Diamond cruise ship and found that on average, each person would infect 2.28 others. This is known as the "R-Nought." The seasonal flu has an r-nought value of about 1.3. So the average infected person with the normal flu will infect 1.3 others. Some studies have the Covid 19 r-nought value higher, at almost 3. The WHO estimates it between 1.3 and 2.5. I don't think I've seen a single study showing its transmissibility is lower than the seasonal flu.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-persp...-23-death-rate

It's important to know that environmental factors play a role in this number. Are the dynamics on a cruise ship the same as the real world? Probably not. Then again, is the population of a cruise ship healthier and more resilient to catching a virus than the general population? Maybe, maybe not. We need time and data to study these things.

So, in a nutshell, that's the cause of the fear. At best, it transmits the same as the seasonal flu, but kills at a rate 20x higher. At worst, it transmits about double the seasonal flu, and still kills 20x as many infected.

As to why China isn't experiencing many millions infected...well they put in place some of the most severe measures to stop the spread of a disease than any country ever has before. They put an entire province under quarantine, complete with drones that would identify people who were moving around. They built multiple hospitals in 10 (TEN!) days.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...ther-countries

But if you think they did all that because of the western media, well, more power to you I guess.

Great summary. I wholeheartedly agree. China has used measures that no western country can deploy and on top of that, they've changed the way they classify infected cases many times. Trying to get real data in China is next to impossible

[Laszlo]

Originally Posted by StarvingBillionaire

The NYC doctor basically says, "Don't believe the false assurance. It will spread. We severely lack testing facilities. The mortality rate from the reliable S. Korean study is .2-.4%; but it's still twice as high as flu":

Super dramatic for such a low death rate. Why don’t they just let it ride like the flu then?

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by SPMN

The truth is we don't have enough data to currently know exactly what the transmissibility is. They did a study on the Princess Diamond cruise ship and found that on average, each person would infect 2.28 others. This is known as the "R-Nought." The seasonal flu has an r-nought value of about 1.3. So the average infected person with the normal flu will infect 1.3 others. Some studies have the Covid 19 r-nought value higher, at almost 3. The WHO estimates it between 1.3 and 2.5. I don't think I've seen a single study showing its transmissibility is lower than the seasonal flu.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-persp...-23-death-rate

It's important to know that environmental factors play a role in this number. Are the dynamics on a cruise ship the same as the real world? Probably not. Then again, is the population of a cruise ship healthier and more resilient to catching a virus than the general population? Maybe, maybe not. We need time and data to study these things.

So, in a nutshell, that's the cause of the fear. At best, it transmits the same as the seasonal flu, but kills at a rate 20x higher. At worst, it transmits about double the seasonal flu, and still kills 20x as many infected.

As to why China isn't experiencing many millions infected...well they put in place some of the most severe measures to stop the spread of a disease than any country ever has before. They put an entire province under quarantine, complete with drones that would identify people who were moving around. They built multiple hospitals in 10 (TEN!) days.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...ther-countries

But if you think they did all that because of the western media, well, more power to you I guess.

This dude with the WHO popped today and says it's less contagious than flu:

Dr. Mike Ryan, the WHO's chief of emergencies, pointed out that even regions that have taken less aggressive measures than the extraordinary lockdowns implemented by China have managed to keep the virus in check. Ryan said that because COVID-19 is not as easily transmitted as the flu, “it offers us a glimmer ... that this virus can be suppressed and contained.”

Who knows?????

[037]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Who knows?????

Who knows or WHO knows?

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by 037

Who knows or WHO knows?

WHO seems to be contrarian in their analysis.

According to them, the virus is not as contagious as the flu and their aren't that many asymptomatic persons with the infection.

Other Data and opinions based on clusters popping up are the exact opposite of that....

[037]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

WHO seems to be contrarian in their analysis.

According to them, the virus is not as contagious as the flu and their aren't that many asymptomatic persons with the infection.

Other Data and opinions based on clusters popping up are the exact opposite of that....

Agreed. It's hard to know who to believe — small who, not big WHO. The message is polarized and data is being obfuscated depending on what each country reports.

It's odd that our primary function in life is survival yet we can't even agree not to keep health info upfront and accurate.