the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by gnuyork

Completely unnecessary

Agreed, should have said “leave me alone” anyway I deleted it.

[joeychitwood]

Originally Posted by Old Expat Beast

It was 1918-1920 and killed tens of millions, without the assistance/existence of international airlines.

50 million dead. 500 million infected. And a large percentage of fatalities were people from 20-40 years old who died of cytokine storms, an internal chemical death caused by their robust immune systems. Even today with state-of-the-art treatment, the mortality rate of cytokine storm is 27%. These infections can happen again.

[G8RDPM]

This has horrible potential in the US and worldwide! As far as we have advanced as a society, we are still being beaten up by a microbe.
Agree with the other doctors on this thread.

[Bryant Park]

Originally Posted by 12Relojes

I'm out. The other doctor dropped out of this thread too.

Actually I would welcome your continued informed participation. On a thread like this the volume of posts is irrelevant and none of us are uniquely qualified to comment.

No disrespect VCTguy intended but none of us have an opinion on this situation that outweighs the opinions of others. I would rather hear from any and all and draw my own conclusions rather than have people metaphorically shouted down. Particularly the doctors on medical threads, pro investors on investment threads, etc....

[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

You might want to ask the person who gave you this information the source of their facts.

The Spanish Flu was 1918.

The Spanish Flu did not kill a few hundreds of thousands. Estimates vary, but it appears to have killed between 20-50 million people.

The Spanish Flu infected about 28% of Americans, it had a mortality rate of about 2.5% or about 670,000 Americans

Yes, we have better medical care now. But on the other hand, there were not nearly that many people in the world then. And we were not as interconnected. I have no clue whether better medicine will prevail. I hope so. But I am very conerned.

Here is an article from Sanford U.

https://virus.stanford.edu/uda/

You might be right, I was speaking off the cuff. I have seen first hand medical miracles, and have faith in our capabilities... I really hope I’m right and they cut this thing off before more people die.

Meanwhile, as I’m sitting in a coffeshop it looks like California is going to mandatory take-out only! Wow!

[*LexLover]

Originally Posted by Bryant Park

Actually I would welcome your continued informed participation. On a thread like this the volume of posts is irrelevant and none of us are uniquely qualified to comment.

No disrespect VCTguy intended but none of us have an opinion on this situation that outweighs the opinions of others. I would rather hear from any and all and draw my own conclusions rather than have people metaphorically shouted down. Particularly the doctors on medical threads, pro investors on investment threads, etc....

I am new here and this is a welcome touch of positivity to this thread. We can all learn from each other and the fact medical professions provide opinion here is a blessing in the skies.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

You might be right, I was speaking off the cuff. I have seen first hand medical miracles, and have faith in our capabilities... I really hope I’m right and they cut this thing off before more people die.

Meanwhile, as I’m sitting in a coffeshop it looks like California is going to mandatory take-out only! Wow!

Stay safe Paul. We are all in this together.

[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by Bryant Park

Actually I would welcome your continued informed participation. On a thread like this the volume of posts is irrelevant and none of us are uniquely qualified to comment.

No disrespect VCTguy intended but none of us have an opinion on this situation that outweighs the opinions of others. I would rather hear from any and all and draw my own conclusions rather than have people metaphorically shouted down. Particularly the doctors on medical threads, pro investors on investment threads, etc....

None taken. Everyone is entitled to an opinion, mine is we (medical science) can best this before a lot (more) people die. I could be wrong.... Hope not.

Right now I have to run, the shop I am in is closing due to the virus! Crap!

[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

Stay safe Paul. We are all in this together.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

50 million dead. 500 million infected. And a large percentage of fatalities were people from 20-40 years old who died of cytokine storms, an internal chemical death caused by their robust immune systems. Even today with state-of-the-art treatment, the mortality rate of cytokine storm is 27%. These infections can happen again.

And an oft forgotten problem was that because of War effort morale, media reporting was squelched. Hence the Philadelphia parade debacle.

[Bryant Park]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

None taken. Everyone is entitled to an opinion, mine is we (medical science) can best this before a lot (more) people die. I could be wrong.... Hope not.

Right now I have to run, the shop I am in is closing due to the virus! Crap!

and good health!!

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

None taken. Everyone is entitled to an opinion, mine is we (medical science) can best this before a lot (more) people die. I could be wrong.... Hope not.

Right now I have to run, the shop I am in is closing due to the virus! Crap!

Medical science is a while out before a formal vaccine... I've heard 1 to 1.5 years, so hoping is not really gonna get us there, I'm afraid... but rather listening to the advice of the health experts by washing hands, and staying home as much as possible... I certainly wouldn't be sitting in a coffee shop if you didn't absolutley have to. My 2¢

[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by gnuyork

Medical science is a while out before a formal vaccine... I've heard 1 to 1.5 years, so hoping is not really gonna get us there, I'm afraid... but rather listening to the advice of the health experts by washing hands, and staying home as much as possible... I certainly wouldn't be sitting in a coffee shop if you didn't absolutley have to. My 2¢

Don’t have to worry about that anymore, they kicked us all out!! I think it’s state-wide in California; anybody know?

Guess I’ll be spending a lot of lonely evenings at home, oh well I do normally anyway

[Seibei]

Not much of a lock down in reality. I took this screen shot a few minutes ago:

[breitlings]

Originally Posted by gnuyork

Medical science is a while out before a formal vaccine... I've heard 1 to 1.5 years

You mean before widespread distribution? USA tested one today on a human, Israel and Germany announced they are weeks away as well.

Austrialia and China have said anti malaria and anti HIV may work as well in observed cases of experimental treatment.

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by breitlings

You mean before widespread distribution? USA tested one today on a human, Israel and Germany announced they are weeks away as well.

Austrialia and China have said anti malaria and anti HIV may work as well in observed cases of experimental treatment.

That's correct, widespread distribution is what I meant. It takes a long time to test and then produce (from what I have read).

[mannyv11]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

True, it could reach this bad or even worse, I just think medical science will cut this off.

Shouldn’t everyone hope I’m right?

I of course hope you’re right my friend.
But as I was Always told prepare for the worst but hope for the best.

That’s the way I’m handling it, stocking up on food while my family has the chance and getting ready to hunker down. I’m in construction and my industry was just shut down for 2 weeks per the mayor.

I would also rather stay away from people because I would feel extremely guilty if I ever found out I had this virus and gave it to anyone else. I think a lot of people who aren’t taking this seriously and pretending everything should be business as usual is not safe. I hope I’m wrong but like I said I would be disappointed in myself if my stupidity hurt anyone else.

[77T]

Originally Posted by breitlings

You mean before widespread distribution? USA tested one today on a human, Israel and Germany announced they are weeks away as well.

Austrialia and China have said anti malaria and anti HIV may work as well in observed cases of experimental treatment.

Moderna is the outfit who is first mover on the US vaccine. They are using Messenger RNA tech to engineer a vaccine.

Rather fast timeframe - I hope the first recipient has positive outcome for the purpose of testing safety. They hit NIH & FDA fastrack process ahead of all others.

Here’s a bit about the timeline of Moderna’s response and a link:

On January 11, 2020, the Chinese authorities shared the genetic sequence of the novel coronavirus.

On January 13, 2020, the U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH) and Moderna’s infectious disease research team finalized the sequence for mRNA-1273, the Company’s vaccine against the novel coronavirus. At that time, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of NIH, disclosed their intent to run a Phase 1 study using the mRNA-1273 vaccine in response to the coronavirus threat and Moderna mobilized toward clinical manufacture. Manufacture of this batch was funded by the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI).

On February 7, 2020, the first clinical batch, including fill and finishing of vials, was completed, a total of 25 days from sequence selection to vaccine manufacture. The batch then proceeded to analytical testing for release.

On February 24, 2020, the clinical batch was shipped from Moderna to the NIH for use in their Phase 1 clinical study.

On March 4, 2020, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) completed its review of the Investigational New Drug (IND) application filed by the NIH for mRNA-1273 and allowed to the study to proceed to begin clinical trials.

On March 16, 2020, the NIH announced that the first participant in its Phase 1 study for mRNA-1273 was dosed, a total of 63 days from sequence selection to first human dosing.

https://www.modernatx.com/modernas-w...ainst-covid-19


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[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by mannyv11

I of course hope you’re right my friend.
But as I was Always told prepare for the worst but hope for the best.

That’s the way I’m handling it, stocking up on food while my family has the chance and getting ready to hunker down. I’m in construction and my industry was just shut down for 2 weeks per the mayor.

I would also rather stay away from people because I would feel extremely guilty if I ever found out I had this virus and gave it to anyone else. I think a lot of people who aren’t taking this seriously and pretending everything should be business as usual is not safe. I hope I’m wrong but like I said I would be disappointed in myself if my stupidity hurt anyone else.

Completely get it Manny, it is prudent to be prepared for the worst, and I understand you’re concern about transmitting, even though you may have absolutely no signs. I was going to visit my 86 year old mother, but until it is proven I am not a carrier, I will not take that chance.

[BNABOD]

Originally Posted by 77T

Moderna is the outfit who is first mover on the US vaccine. They are using Messenger RNA tech to engineer a vaccine.

Rather fast timeframe - I hope the first recipient has positive outcome for the purpose of testing safety. They hit NIH & FDA fastrack process ahead of all others.

Here’s a bit about the timeline of Moderna’s response and a link:

On January 11, 2020, the Chinese authorities shared the genetic sequence of the novel coronavirus.

On January 13, 2020, the U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH) and Moderna’s infectious disease research team finalized the sequence for mRNA-1273, the Company’s vaccine against the novel coronavirus. At that time, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of NIH, disclosed their intent to run a Phase 1 study using the mRNA-1273 vaccine in response to the coronavirus threat and Moderna mobilized toward clinical manufacture. Manufacture of this batch was funded by the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI).

On February 7, 2020, the first clinical batch, including fill and finishing of vials, was completed, a total of 25 days from sequence selection to vaccine manufacture. The batch then proceeded to analytical testing for release.

On February 24, 2020, the clinical batch was shipped from Moderna to the NIH for use in their Phase 1 clinical study.

On March 4, 2020, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) completed its review of the Investigational New Drug (IND) application filed by the NIH for mRNA-1273 and allowed to the study to proceed to begin clinical trials.

On March 16, 2020, the NIH announced that the first participant in its Phase 1 study for mRNA-1273 was dosed, a total of 63 days from sequence selection to first human dosing.

https://www.modernatx.com/modernas-w...ainst-covid-19


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Thanks and for anyone that does not know how this works (my wife is in the industry) this is very fast and about time the fda cut down some red tape. Now it will take time to go through the data from a safety and efficacy stand point but if it all goes well then let’s just pray it gets out there ASAP and that this virus doesn’t mutate for the worse .

[Burlington]

The thread continues to be highly useful so please do keep it open.

I’m filling my car and getting some cash out tomorrow morning. The office at work is about to go into hibernation/ very limited use for a month and we will bunker down at home to play our part in social distancing.

[12Relojes]

Let me apologize for the tone. I have enormous respect for the courtesy and tone of TRF. My bad.

Coronavirus team presented 15 DAYS TO SLOW THE SPREAD program.

15 DAYS TO SLOW THE SPREAD

• Listen and follow the directions of your STATE AND LOCAL AUTHORITIES
• IF YOU FEEL SICK, stay at home. Do not go to work. Contact a medical provider.
• IF YOUR CHILDREN ARE SICK, keep them at home. Do not send them to school. Contact your medical provider.
• IF SOMEONE IN YOUR HOUSEHOLD HAS TESTED POSITIVE for the coronavirus, keep the entire household at home. Do not go to work. Do not go to school. Contact your medical provider
• IF YOU’RE AN OLDER PERSON, stay at home and away from other people.
• IF YOU ARE A PERSON WITH A SERIOUS UNDERLYING HEALTH CONDITION that can put you at increased risk (for example a condition that impairs your lung or heart function or weakens your immune system), stay home and away from other people.

These are all sensible recommendations and should be followed.

Despite all the self-congratulation and praise for public-private partnerships we do not have adequate testing.
• Our office does not have testing kits.

They didn’t mention mortality rates:
• Worldwide mortality is currently between 4-8%
o Of the cases that have run their full course, mortality is 8%. When you include diagnosed cases that have not reached the peak of illness, it drops to 3.9%
• USA mortality
o 4598 cases
o 86 deaths
o 1.9%
• World Health Organization estimates mortality at 3%.
• Comparison to other viral infections
o 3% Covid-19
o 9.6% SARS
o 34% MERS
o 0.02% Swine Flu
o <0.01% Seasonal Influenza


No one on the task force mentioned hospitalization rates.
• Gov. Cuomo reports a 17% hospitalization rate
• Angela Merkel estimates that 40-60% of Germans have been infected

Dr. Fauci said the task force did not give consideration to daycares in their analysis. This is a significant oversight. The next set of recommendations should include the closure of daycare facilities.

[rushca01]

I’m beginning to wonder if I had it back in February and didn’t even know it. I traveled to S.L.P. MX from Jan 28-31 through DFW. This was right at the early onset of reporting of the outbreak over seas. It caught my attention enough to consider not going but I went anyways. By the following Tuesday upon my return I was feeling tired but went to work through Wednesday but went home early. I stayed home Thursday through the weekend, hit the the typical “flu” like symptoms with a fever but never any shortness of breath etc. My oldest (10) was than sick about 5 days later, same thing laid up on the couch for 3-4 days with a fever but then kicked it. Very likely just the “flu” but now I’m wondering...

[Dawg2]

I just think it's odd to shut down an entire planet for a pandemic with a 3% mortality rate. My suspicion is it is much higher than what we are being told.

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[Star Ferry]

Originally Posted by Dawg2

I just think it's odd to shut down an entire planet for a pandemic with a 3% mortality rate. My suspicion is it is much higher than what we are being told.

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It could be possible to get COVID-19 more than once, which could hypothetically make for a death toll higher than its mortality rate

[Dawg2]

Originally Posted by Star Ferry

It could be possible to get COVID-19 more than once, which could hypothetically make for a death toll higher than its mortality rate

Interesting that there are cased being reported of reinfection by COVID19.

This whole situation is very odd and I don't feel we are getting full disclosure.

It won't be long before domestic air travel is severely curbed it halted.

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[77T]

Originally Posted by 12Relojes

Let me apologize for the tone. I have enormous respect for the courtesy and tone of TRF. My bad.



Coronavirus team presented 15 DAYS TO SLOW THE SPREAD program.



15 DAYS TO SLOW THE SPREAD



•Listen and follow the directions of your STATE AND LOCAL AUTHORITIES

•IF YOU FEEL SICK, stay at home. Do not go to work. Contact a medical provider.

•IF YOUR CHILDREN ARE SICK, keep them at home. Do not send them to school. Contact your medical provider.

•IF SOMEONE IN YOUR HOUSEHOLD HAS TESTED POSITIVE for the coronavirus, keep the entire household at home. Do not go to work. Do not go to school. Contact your medical provider

•IF YOU’RE AN OLDER PERSON, stay at home and away from other people.

•IF YOU ARE A PERSON WITH A SERIOUS UNDERLYING HEALTH CONDITION that can put you at increased risk (for example a condition that impairs your lung or heart function or weakens your immune system), stay home and away from other people.



These are all sensible recommendations and should be followed.



Despite all the self-congratulation and praise for public-private partnerships we do not have adequate testing.

•Our office does not have testing kits.



They didn’t mention mortality rates:

•Worldwide mortality is currently between 4-8%

oOf the cases that have run their full course, mortality is 8%. When you include diagnosed cases that have not reached the peak of illness, it drops to 3.9%

•USA mortality

o4598 cases

o86 deaths

o1.9%

•World Health Organization estimates mortality at 3%.

•Comparison to other viral infections

o3%Covid-19

o9.6%SARS

o34% MERS

o0.02%Swine Flu

o<0.01% Seasonal Influenza





No one on the task force mentioned hospitalization rates.

•Gov. Cuomo reports a 17% hospitalization rate

•Angela Merkel estimates that 40-60% of Germans have been infected



Dr. Fauci said the task force did not give consideration to daycares in their analysis. This is a significant oversight. The next set of recommendations should include the closure of daycare facilities.

Welcome back - I think your medical background can be beneficial. Especially if your research helps others to better understand the facts.

I understand the frustration and the pressure can result in frayed nerves at times.


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[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by 77T

I understand the frustration and the pressure can result in frayed nerves at times.

SHUT UP!!!!!!!

[77T]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

SHUT UP!!!!!!!

Well especially when an inflatable deflates...


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[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by 77T

Well especially when an inflatable deflates...


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Paul G. Paul D