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Old 19 March 2020, 12:40 AM   #2581
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Thank you for sharing. Sending positive thoughts to you, your family and your friends and neighbors.
Thank you. I would like to add that because of two deaths in a Postal Office, the Union is pressing to shut down the service completely.
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Old 19 March 2020, 12:41 AM   #2582
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Trust me, meditation works.

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Old 19 March 2020, 12:42 AM   #2583
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Well, that's essentially how we're living in Italy right now.

Everything is closed with the exceptions of public transports, groceries, banks and some other stuff that were defined as "basic services". You can't walk around or drive unless you have a written declaration that you MUST go out. The police pressed charges on about 43K people so far because of this.

My kids are having their school lessons at home, thanks to the internet. I work from home too and so is my wife. We get out once a week, only one of us, to buy groceries for us and for my 75yo mother. Otherwise we're basically locked in.

And despite this, here in Italy we had 3000 NEW cases only yesterday. And 345 NEW deaths only Yesterday. Only because we were hit by the virus a couple of weeks before you.

The so-called "Patient one" in Piedmont has tested positive just few days after he was declared healthy and now he's in quarantine again. This virus is a real beast, 50-75% of the people that tested positive in the small village in Veneto that was probably the first contaminated area were completely unaware of that, no symptoms at all: they spread the virus almost everywhere, unknowingly.

Last but not least, so far we have worldwide:

204069 total cases with 8250 deaths.
112953 active cases with about 6% serious or critical.
91116 closed cases with about 9% deaths.

Here in Italy we have so far 31506 total cases with 2503 deaths on 5444 closed cases. Yes, about 46% of the closed cases are deaths.

More than 2K people are serious / critical. We don't have emergency beds anymore in Lombardy where I live, we're shipping patients around the country.

It's not a James Bond movie.
Thanks - was trying to put this across that this is not a 'blown out of proportion' scenario or a movie situation! My prayers are with you!
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Old 19 March 2020, 12:43 AM   #2584
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These are takeaways from an invite only Goldman Sachs call that just completed. In true TRF tradition believe what you will...

50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.

70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.

Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.

The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal.

Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly.

Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.

There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.

Chinaís economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.

Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.

S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall.

There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.
Thank you for sharing this. As Michael Osterholm said on CNBC yesterday we are going to have to figure out what it means to live with this virus. It will involve asking ourselves some tough questions and the answers to those questions will not be easy. However it is simply unsustainable to have the entire country/world on lockdown for an extended period of time. I am not saying we should do nothing; I'm saying we are going to have to be much more flexible and agile in our approach.

There is a light at the end of this tunnel, folks.
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Old 19 March 2020, 12:52 AM   #2585
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COVID-19 globally:
179,111 confirmed cases (11,525 new ones in last 24 hours)
7,426 deaths (475 occurred in last 24 hours)

https://www.who.int/docs/default-sou...rsn=a26922f2_4

4.1% mortality on those numbers (of course local mortality rate will vary by the coronavirus infection demographics).

We need to bend that curve downward with possible combined therapies once people have COVID-19. That part is in the hands of the health officials and medical professionals. I believe there is an answer - it will need some inventive person (aka Alexander) to untie the apparent gordian knot.

The distancing and isolation efforts can reduce the number of people exposed to coronavirus. That part is in our hands. Our efforts donít change the conversion rate of coronavirus exposure into full-blown COVID-19 cases - but our efforts are key.

We have a two-pronged problem to solve; the first prong is in our hands. Complying with the distancing and isolation requires our personal attention. The second prong is with the professionals.

Just my take on what we can do each and every day to reduce the spread. This buys time for health proís to create a better treatment course to bring down the mortality rate.






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Those were yesterday's numbers.

Infected: 204,251
Deaths: 8,246

Live Map: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6
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Old 19 March 2020, 01:07 AM   #2586
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As for the mortality rate, I thought that was the whole point of closing things down and staying home. So far, Americans who've needed medical treatment have largely gotten it. If it spreads quickly and hospitals are overwhelmed, then that rate would go up (e.g. Italy, which has roughly one death per 12 confirmed cases)
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Old 19 March 2020, 01:13 AM   #2587
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This is a Florida beach yesterday. Full of spring breakers ignoring the warnings about the pandemic.


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Old 19 March 2020, 01:16 AM   #2588
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this is a florida beach yesterday. Full of spring breakers ignoring the warnings about the pandemic.


wtf!!!!
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Old 19 March 2020, 01:17 AM   #2589
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This is a Florida beach yesterday. Full of spring breakers ignoring the warnings about the pandemic.


Until the FL governor puts a stop to this, I don't really see a slowdown happening at the beaches. So far, he has refused.
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Old 19 March 2020, 01:18 AM   #2590
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Those were yesterday's numbers.



Infected: 204,251

Deaths: 8,246



Live Map: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6


I know many will post and pick the data source they like the most, so I respect your opinion.

However, the source I cited is the WHO. They are the collection point for global data. The numbers are from the 3/17 report. Another one is due for 3/18. And every report is only as good as past 24 hours.

The source in that link you posted uses modeling on top of data. But itís all about reducing cases so Iím not quibbling.


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Old 19 March 2020, 01:20 AM   #2591
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the Coronavirus outbreak thread

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As for the mortality rate, I thought that was the whole point of closing things down and staying home. So far, Americans who've needed medical treatment have largely gotten it. If it spreads quickly and hospitals are overwhelmed, then that rate would go up (e.g. Italy, which has roughly one death per 12 confirmed cases)


Closing things down is to flatten the curve of new infections. This helps our healthcare system cope with the numbers. By itself, isolation doesnít change mortality rates.



The mortality rate is not affected in the near term. Reducing it will depend upon medical interventions through better therapies and in the long-run engineering an effective vaccine.


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Old 19 March 2020, 01:20 AM   #2592
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Dr. Fauci was on every network yesterday begging young people to heed the warnings and quit congregating. They feel invincible, and they may in fact be at low risk for dying from the virus, but they could bring it back to loved ones, employers or vulnerable friends.
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Old 19 March 2020, 01:24 AM   #2593
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the Coronavirus outbreak thread

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Dr. Fauci was on every network yesterday begging young people to heed the warnings and quit congregating. They feel invincible, and they may in fact be at low risk for dying from the virus, but they could bring it back to loved ones, employers or vulnerable friends.


Yes - his messaging was direct and thoughtful. Now we must wait to see what effect it has.

For the seniors, immunodeficient or immunosuppressed the message is keep the kids indoors too. And decline visits from the teenagers and millennials going out and about.


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Old 19 March 2020, 01:25 AM   #2594
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This is a Florida beach yesterday. Full of spring breakers ignoring the warnings about the pandemic.







Gramps and Grams need to keep those away from their home for a long long time.


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Old 19 March 2020, 01:32 AM   #2595
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Well it got worse today here. Woke up to a 5.7 magnitude earthquake. This should increase all the panic buying. 20+ aftershocks in the last two hours.

They are saying ~74K people have lost power.
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Old 19 March 2020, 01:33 AM   #2596
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This is a Florida beach yesterday. Full of spring breakers ignoring the warnings about the pandemic.


yeah. this is stupid.

smh.
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Old 19 March 2020, 01:36 AM   #2597
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This is a Florida beach yesterday. Full of spring breakers ignoring the warnings about the pandemic.


That is utterly disturbing and sad to see. I'm in my 20s and perfectly healthy yet I've done my part to be sure I'm part of the solution and not the problem. I'm a millennial and I really think a lot of the crap we get is justified sadly enough
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Old 19 March 2020, 01:46 AM   #2598
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yeah. This is stupid.

Smh.
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Old 19 March 2020, 01:47 AM   #2599
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Well it got worse today here. Woke up to a 5.7 magnitude earthquake. This should increase all the panic buying. 20+ aftershocks in the last two hours.

They are saying ~74K people have lost power.

So sorry

Thatís the other issue, other events go on whilst this virus is happening. Itís not one or the other so the strain is greater.


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Old 19 March 2020, 01:51 AM   #2600
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Well it got worse today here. Woke up to a 5.7 magnitude earthquake. This should increase all the panic buying. 20+ aftershocks in the last two hours.

They are saying ~74K people have lost power.
I read about it as it broke. Talk about layering it on. Yikes. Hoping no casualties and that power is restored quickly.
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Old 19 March 2020, 01:52 AM   #2601
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Closing things down is to flatten the curve of new infections. This helps our healthcare system cope with the numbers. By itself, isolation doesnít change mortality rates.



The mortality rate is not affected in the near term. Reducing it will depend upon medical interventions through better therapies and in the long-run engineering an effective vaccine.


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we'll have to disagree. Sick people without healthcare have worse outcomes than sick people with healthcare. To the extent that the wave moves above that dashed line representing max capacity, I can't imagine a plausible reason why the mortality rate wouldn't go up. It already happened in Italy. Isolation could save lives, albeit indirectly, even if the same number are ultimately infected
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Old 19 March 2020, 01:54 AM   #2602
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we'll have to disagree. Sick people without healthcare have worse outcomes than sick people with healthcare. To the extent that the wave moves above that dashed line representing max capacity, I can't imagine a plausible reason why the mortality rate wouldn't go up. It already happened in Italy. Isolation could save lives, albeit indirectly, even if the same number are ultimately infected


We donít disagree. I didnít address how lack of access to healthcare would change the mortality rate.


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Old 19 March 2020, 01:54 AM   #2603
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Closing things down is to flatten the curve of new infections. This helps our healthcare system cope with the numbers. By itself, isolation doesnít change mortality rates.



The mortality rate is not affected in the near term. Reducing it will depend upon medical interventions through better therapies and in the long-run engineering an effective vaccine.


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Exactly. It is about spreading out the infection rate.

However, a byproduct of this is not overwhelming our medical system. This will make it more likely to be able to save lives of people with other medical conditions who might otherwise be denied service due to COVID patients in beds.
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Old 19 March 2020, 02:04 AM   #2604
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That is utterly disturbing and sad to see. I'm in my 20s and perfectly healthy yet I've done my part to be sure I'm part of the solution and not the problem. I'm a millennial and I really think a lot of the crap we get is justified sadly enough
Itís not just young people not following the recommendations.....I have witnessed first hand all age groups including many seniors...
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Old 19 March 2020, 02:08 AM   #2605
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Exactly. It is about spreading out the infection rate.



However, a byproduct of this is not overwhelming our medical system. This will make it more likely to be able to save lives of people with other medical conditions who might otherwise be denied service due to COVID patients in beds.


Yes. I failed to mention the consequences of the red hump but thought it was intuitively obvious to the casual observer. The death rate for aged victims, the immunodeficient and immunosuppresed would rise sharply due to no beds with respirators available. And our regular ED patients from stroke, coronary and accidents would also be in jeopardy like you mentioned.


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Old 19 March 2020, 02:16 AM   #2606
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So sorry

Thatís the other issue, other events go on whilst this virus is happening. Itís not one or the other so the strain is greater.


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I read about it as it broke. Talk about layering it on. Yikes. Hoping no casualties and that power is restored quickly.
Thanks both. I think it will be ok. We have a lot of older brick construction that is slightly damaged. No casualties have been reported.
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Old 19 March 2020, 02:16 AM   #2607
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Yes. I failed to mention the consequences of the red hump but thought it was intuitively obvious to the casual observer. The death rate for aged victims, the immunodeficient and immunosuppresed would rise sharply due to no beds with respirators available.
Unfortunately not everyone gets it. Lots of people think the red wave is better because it gets the outbreak over with faster. I think the public messaging should explain in a simple, logical fashion why the blue wave is better. Many people just aren't able to draw their own inferences about second-order consequences
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Old 19 March 2020, 02:25 AM   #2608
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the Coronavirus outbreak thread

From my reading of the whole thing it appears you guys in the US are doing a better job than we are in the U.K.

You seem far more proactive, maybe Iím wrong.


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Old 19 March 2020, 02:25 AM   #2609
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Unfortunately not everyone gets it. Lots of people think the red wave is better because it gets the outbreak over with faster. I think the public messaging should explain in a simple, logical fashion why the blue wave is better. Many people just aren't able to draw their own inferences about second-order consequences


I certainly agree about the general public. Hope that the TRFíers are more learned on average.

In J-school they told us to write to 5th grade level despite being a college publication.

If we explain everything at that level, each post would be 12 column inches and ignored after the first paragraph.


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Old 19 March 2020, 02:43 AM   #2610
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Waiting to see what happens in India and Indonesia.

#2 and #4 in population. But are warmer and mostly humid (except some parts of India)

It’s going to be 100 degrees in Dhaka Bangladesh later this week. They have 10 known cases in the whole country. Let’s see if it spreads.
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