I saw the 2022 AP releases at OnlyWatch

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by BrunoMalik

Hello all, OP here again. Please feel free to have another look at post #1.

Just for the fun of it, i went ahead and read the thread from the beginning again. Its surprising and frankly sad how most of you chose to ridicule this information. Anyways, best of luck.

Not quite there yet, but not a bad call overall. How many ROs did you end up buying since Nov. 8?

[Willyjo]

Originally Posted by BrunoMalik

Hello all, OP here again. Please feel free to have another look at post #1.

Just for the fun of it, i went ahead and read the thread from the beginning again. Its surprising and frankly sad how most of you chose to ridicule this information. Anyways, best of luck.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Pretty much spot on accross the board OP.

Very cool.

My grey dealer has been harassing me for my RO's since early Dec. Each week he goes up by 10k.

Sent from my SM-G985F using Tapatalk

[macrowatch]

OP, clearly you were right on price prediction for the 15500, but now that the releases are out I’m not sure I see the connection between the new releases and price jump? What am I missing that you saw at only watch?

[tifamo]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

OP, clearly you were right on price prediction for the 15500, but now that the releases are out I’m not sure I see the connection between the new releases and price jump? What am I missing that you saw at only watch?

Exactly my question.. also the 15450 and 15500 are getting discontinued (OP previously said nothing is getting discontinued)

But still, pretty accurate leaks and price predictions from OP

[DonLee]

Originally Posted by BrunoMalik

I saw the 2022 releases in Francois’ phone at Onlywatch. AP is about to go to another level. It will leave Patek in the dust. Im buying up every single RO i can get my hands on, even at gray prices.

Price predictions for next year:
Any 15202 will got to 200k
Any 15500 non blue will be 100k, blue 150k
Ceramic QP skeleton will be a $1mn watch, non skeleton QP 700k.

U get the idea


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

with hind sight, we see it is Patek that left AP in the dust. Every nautilus asking for $200k now. Aquanauts on the brink of $100k

[dh1]

Originally Posted by tifamo

Exactly my question.. also the 15450 and 15500 are getting discontinued (OP previously said nothing is getting discontinued)

But still, pretty accurate leaks and price predictions from OP

Even if the OP saw everything that is being announced in 2022, I'm still not seeing how that would lead to predict the 15202 going to $200k. The fact that the 16202 is almost the same aesthetically and has a new movement might point to the 15202 stagnating or dropping vs. doubling.

[tifamo]

Originally Posted by dh1

Even if the OP saw everything that is being announced in 2022, I'm still not seeing how that would lead to predict the 15202 going to $200k. The fact that the 16202 is almost the same aesthetically and has a new movement might point to the 15202 stagnating or dropping vs. doubling.

Maybe there’s more to the story?…

Heard 4/15 is another day to watch out for announcements

[BrunoMalik]

Multiple releases this year, u haven’t seen anything yet. Im surprised there are still doubters and haters in this thread


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[robertengel]

you arent a doubter or hater if you question the logic of the ops reasoning, you are being inquisitive.

[rolexperfect]

Originally Posted by BrunoMalik

If you dont want believe me thats fine. Just dont sell your ROs until 1st half of 2022.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Just got a mint 15300ST in white. Not selling it for sure -- unless it's to fund something crazy, and I just got a mint 5711, so I'm just starting an "enjoy them" period right now

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by dh1

Even if the OP saw everything that is being announced in 2022, I'm still not seeing how that would lead to predict the 15202 going to $200k. The fact that the 16202 is almost the same aesthetically and has a new movement might point to the 15202 stagnating or dropping vs. doubling.

Guess trying to understand the correlation vs causation by asking for further understanding of causation because we are not smart enough to grasp the OP’s genius makes us haters.

@DonLee did not realize Nautalus had hit 200k. I stopped paying attention after 120k. Crazy times.

[eal15]

lol! a little vindication.

[GW44]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

OP, clearly you were right on price prediction for the 15500, but now that the releases are out I’m not sure I see the connection between the new releases and price jump? What am I missing that you saw at only watch?

Well said.

It’s clearly not rocket science to predict the market values (for AP or any hard to buy brand) will continue to climb so I’m really not seeing any insight or insider product launch info.

[tifamo]

Originally Posted by GW44

Well said.

It’s clearly not rocket science to predict the market values (for AP or any hard to buy brand) will continue to climb so I’m really not seeing any insight or insider product launch info.

Be careful, OP might think we are haters or doubters ;)

But really OP, we are all just curious minds here. Why are announcements of new watches driving price hikes? It’s not like any line is being discontinued like the nautilus, nor a $6M watch auction just happened.. mind shedding some light?

[GW44]

Originally Posted by tifamo

Be careful, OP might think we are haters or doubters ;)

But really OP, we are all just curious minds here. Why are announcements of new watches driving price hikes? It’s not like any line is being discontinued like the nautilus, nor a $6M watch auction just happened.. mind shedding some light?

No hate here friend, just love for the AP brand/product….

[Timo_]

This thread didn't age well.

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by Timo_

This thread didn't age well.

Looked prophetic for about six weeks.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by Timo_

This thread didn't age well.

Aged like milk.

[thekman]

Lol glad someone dug this up. Funny stuff!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[GW44]

Originally Posted by Timo_

This thread didn't age well.

Did we see your own market predictions in January 2022 to compare please?

I have no issue with saying I called the market wrong but at that time no one really knew all the factors that would cannonball the world wide economy post the Ukraine war/Covid/Brexit etc

[Timo_]

I am not fingerpointing in any way here. Just came across this thread and realised that this could be a good and amusing opportunity to reflect on past market outlooks just about a year ago.

So no judgement passed here.

In my view there will be an even more significant shift into the opposite direction in 2023 due to several factors besides the global recession awaiting.

There are currently a staggering 122 variations of the RO in production by AP which will ultimately lead to dilution of the model line as such.

Where do you see AP in 3-5 years when the hype eventually dies down, in a world in which they don't sell every piece they produce?

In my view they will eventually need to dig down into the archives and come up with more model lines and work towards a diverse offering in order to avoid cluster risk by betting on mainly one horse which is as we all know the RO.

[GB-man]

A nice TRF time capsule displaying the hilarity of 2021. This thread was actually posted right around the peak.

[edo]

It was a catastorphic Philips auction for AP... IP hammered below retail, brand new ceramic openworked at 244k and guys on chrono still asking 500 to 700k... brand new 2022 openworked double balance at 110.... correction will hit hard some greys...

[is2018]

Originally Posted by edo

It was a catastorphic Philips auction for AP... IP hammered below retail, brand new ceramic openworked at 244k and guys on chrono still asking 500 to 700k... brand new 2022 openworked double balance at 110.... correction will hit hard some greys...

Hello, can you post link to results?

Thank you!

[Reign]

Originally Posted by edo

It was a catastorphic Philips auction for AP... IP hammered below retail, brand new ceramic openworked at 244k and guys on chrono still asking 500 to 700k... brand new 2022 openworked double balance at 110.... correction will hit hard some greys...

A bunch of people going to take a bath on their speculative purchases. Prices dropping and fast.

Patek Enamel World Timers sub $100k, too


If you have liquidity you’re going to be able to get some great pieces


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[edo]

Originally Posted by is2018

Hello, can you post link to results?

Thank you!

https://www.phillips.com/detail/f-p-journe/NY080322/1

[edo]

Originally Posted by Reign

A bunch of people going to take a bath on their speculative purchases. Prices dropping and fast.

Patek Enamel World Timers sub $100k, too


If you have liquidity you’re going to be able to get some great pieces


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The prices are still strong, considering you bought at MSRP, but looking at market last 12 months it is a significant drop... remember auction after auction when most of the watches at least double Hight estimated price...

ALS Datograph also sold for a half guys are asking at chrono24... in one hand it's a shame because it is a technical marvel, but also a good thing if / as you said / you have liquidity...

FPJs are still going pretty strong....

[metzgergt1]

Originally Posted by edo

It was a catastorphic Philips auction for AP... IP hammered below retail, brand new ceramic openworked at 244k and guys on chrono still asking 500 to 700k... brand new 2022 openworked double balance at 110.... correction will hit hard some greys...

Remember there is also a 26% buyers premium, so out the door that $244k hammer has an additional $63k premium on top

[conkers]

A highly entertaining thread!

Bid hard and buy soon people as Chinese financial markets will be up 50% next year and the window will have gone!

[thekman]

This seems like a steal to me compared to current retail.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk