ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX
21 March 2020, 06:24 PM | #1 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: In a bubble
Posts: 379
|
Are we going to see vintage watches at 5+ years ago prices?
First and foremost, stay safe fellow vintage collectors.
This is not a panic thread, or one that is focused on how we must stay away from buying watches etc. Everyone does what he can within his means. One person's loss is another's gain, as has always been the case. If someone has to offload for a relatively cheap price, there will be someone that is in a much more comfortable position to buy. I post just to see what other collectors think is coming. We can always revisit such threads in 5 years, 10 years, etc to see if it actually went any way any of us had predicted, or the way you would expect it to have gone. Are we going to see Vintage Daytonas at 20s? 30s? Matte dial 5513/1675 back at sub $10K? Gilt dials in the teens? Interesting to see what happens in the market. For those that are able to stay put, perhaps the market will come back stronger eventually. Even if it does take a few years, it is a normal cycle. Stay safe and it will be interesting to hear opinions whilst trying to keep it civil. |
21 March 2020, 06:27 PM | #2 |
Banned
Join Date: Feb 2020
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 83
|
A lot of people here seem to be hoping this happens. Post like this started popping up two weeks ago.
|
21 March 2020, 06:57 PM | #3 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Paris
Posts: 3,530
|
Also depends how long this is going to last. Fast forward 2-3 months and this situation is still ongoing, you'll see the difference.
|
21 March 2020, 09:22 PM | #4 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: USA
Watch: where do i start??
Posts: 3,254
|
If there was a case of a quality example that pops up for sale under market price, it would be out of desperation to liquidate fast.. I can say with certainty, many collectors aren’t going to get rid of their quality pieces during a down turn, as they were not easily obtainable..
It all depends on people’s financial situation but for me, it would have to get to the point of poverty to let go of my personal things to buy food and other essentials to survive.. I really don’t see that happening to any of us. The question really is, what will be the new price points once’s this all blows over and normality is restored? I suspect slightly higher market values.. We went into this recession with a strong economy, so our recovery will be quicker than the norm. It’s just a matter of when people can start living lives again to jump start the economy . |
22 March 2020, 03:57 AM | #5 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2016
Real Name: Mo
Location: Dubai
Watch: 1675 GMT, DRSD
Posts: 1,432
|
I doubt. A correction is possible as some think they are due for it but to take a massive hit, it has to be a bigger and longer catastrophe. (God forbid). Sadly, There will be some that may have to liquidate for financial reasons but a huge drop like that, I really doubt.
Stay safe all. |
22 March 2020, 04:09 AM | #6 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Apr 2008
Real Name: jP
Location: Texas
Watch: GMT-MASTER
Posts: 17,195
|
The high dollar vintage watches will correct, the others will not or drop very minimal in price- just like back in 2008. Back then, the prices for GMTs remained very stable, the Subs corrected a little and the high dollar vintage watches corrected substantially.
GMT 1675s sold for around $2600-$3000 during 2008. Red Subs were from $10,000-$11,000 and the collector Daytonas were substantially higher than the Subs.
__________________
Member of NAWCC since 1990. INSTAGRAM USER NAME: SPRINGERJFP Visit my Instagram page to view some of the finest vintage GMTs anywhere - as well as other vintage classics. |
22 March 2020, 04:38 AM | #7 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: uk
Posts: 362
|
just like back in 2008
this situation has the potential to be a hell of a lot worse than 2008.......... |
22 March 2020, 04:56 AM | #8 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2013
Real Name: Flavio
Location: N/A
Posts: 14,652
|
|
22 March 2020, 04:59 AM | #9 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jan 2009
Real Name: Aaron
Location: CT/NYC
Watch: ing the time!
Posts: 6,789
|
Quote:
China is getting back to normal, Russia had very few cases, and with diligence, the US can follow suit. |
|
22 March 2020, 05:01 AM | #10 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Apr 2008
Real Name: jP
Location: Texas
Watch: GMT-MASTER
Posts: 17,195
|
Quote:
The potential, as you wrote, for anything is possible - my crystal ball isn't as clear as yours!!! It could definitely be worse, but my point concerned price corrections, nothing more, nothing less. There were corrections back in 2008 and there will be some now.
__________________
Member of NAWCC since 1990. INSTAGRAM USER NAME: SPRINGERJFP Visit my Instagram page to view some of the finest vintage GMTs anywhere - as well as other vintage classics. |
|
22 March 2020, 05:03 AM | #11 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2014
Location: mississippi river
Posts: 2,940
|
I have seen large dealers raise the prices on watches that they have not sold, year after year.
So, I doubt it. |
22 March 2020, 05:13 AM | #12 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: US
Posts: 657
|
Quote:
|
|
22 March 2020, 05:15 AM | #13 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: uk
Posts: 362
|
Quote:
|
|
22 March 2020, 05:52 AM | #14 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Apr 2008
Real Name: jP
Location: Texas
Watch: GMT-MASTER
Posts: 17,195
|
Hello Paul, if you don't know what is considered high dollar vintage, we can discuss it during your next phone call
__________________
Member of NAWCC since 1990. INSTAGRAM USER NAME: SPRINGERJFP Visit my Instagram page to view some of the finest vintage GMTs anywhere - as well as other vintage classics. |
22 March 2020, 06:43 AM | #15 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: US
Posts: 657
|
|
22 March 2020, 09:45 AM | #16 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2010
Real Name: Per
Location: Sweden
Watch: Gilt Rolex
Posts: 2,946
|
Personally I think a lot of mainstream models will correct when the speculation comes out of the market. Lots of stuff bought by people who doesn’t know or care about watches as long as they just appreciate 20% annually.
But who knows.. I am not selling so it is not really an issue. I am way more concerned about other things in this crisis.
__________________
Instagram: @perj123 |
22 March 2020, 11:14 AM | #17 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: Japan
Posts: 4,344
|
Quote:
As for my vintage watches, I ain't selling, so short-term fluctuations don't bother me. |
|
22 March 2020, 11:27 AM | #18 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jul 2010
Real Name: @jb.watching
Location: NYC
Posts: 1,467
|
There are way way more “investors” in this market today, both vintage and modern. To me this suggests a not insignificant chance of a much bigger correction than 08.
And right this minute, what’s going on looks like it could be far worse than 08. |
22 March 2020, 05:21 PM | #19 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Santa Fe
Posts: 1,852
|
California, New York, Connecticut, New Jersey, Illinois, France, Italy and Great Britain are in a social and economic lock down. It is impossible to sell a piece of real estate in those locations. Practical unemployment in those places is probably around 30% at the moment. Entire industries are flat lining: aerospace, airlines, casinos, hotels, cruise lines, restaurants, automobile manufacturing. The price of oil has dropped 60%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is off 9,000 points (32%) in the last month.
Will this affect the prices of luxury watches? Nah. Last edited by cascavel; 22 March 2020 at 05:22 PM.. Reason: Punctuation |
22 March 2020, 08:49 PM | #20 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Scotland
Posts: 2,844
|
|
23 March 2020, 03:31 AM | #21 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: /
Posts: 1,735
|
I started to track a couple of models and here are a couple that I think shows some sort of correction:
https://www.chrono24.com/rolex/subma...US&SETCURR=USD https://www.chrono24.com/rolex/vinta...id14576438.htm |
23 March 2020, 04:16 AM | #22 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: East coast
Posts: 6,590
|
2 crappy examples.....
|
23 March 2020, 04:35 AM | #23 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Clemson
Watch: G Shock
Posts: 608
|
Quote:
Looks like some bargains starting to appear, I like both of those Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk |
|
23 March 2020, 05:01 AM | #24 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Lancs. England
Posts: 993
|
|
23 March 2020, 05:36 AM | #25 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2018
Location: South Florida
Posts: 35
|
|
23 March 2020, 11:48 PM | #26 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: Chicago
Posts: 54
|
I'm going to copy in a response that I typed up over the weekend when discussing this question. Not that I have any more insight than others do, but it's already typed so easy to do!
"I think price declines are inevitable given the equity market's recent volatility (makes people reevaluate priorities), but I also think rare or excellent condition vintage pieces in the hands of collectors aren't going to move much in price during this cycle. Nobody is buying watches with debt and most people spending $20K+ on multiple watches are fairly liquid and won't need to firesale their watches to make ends meet. What that ultimately means is lower volume of desirable stuff trading hands between collectors and a pronounced decline for average watches in average condition being marketed to new buyers. Oh, and the people paying $70K for a brand new Nautilus on the grey market [insert: or 2-3x for a new steel Rolex]? Wouldn't be surprised to see that house of cards collapse." |
24 March 2020, 07:07 AM | #27 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: Chicago
Watch: 5508 & 9401
Posts: 639
|
Quote:
|
|
24 March 2020, 07:14 AM | #28 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: /
Posts: 1,735
|
Here is some pretty recent auction results for some Rolexes...
https://www.catawiki.com/a/285837-rolex-watch-auction Maybe not so astounding...what do you guys think? |
24 March 2020, 07:19 AM | #29 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: East coast
Posts: 6,590
|
Quote:
|
|
24 March 2020, 09:18 AM | #30 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2014
Real Name: Matt
Location: NC
Watch: Polar 16570 c.3186
Posts: 28
|
Unfortunately for me I did not realize how much I loved the 16570 cal. 3186 Explorer II until last Summer, after the prices went insane. I look at the current prices and shake my head. It's completely insane and I wonder if it will ever soften up.
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests) | |
|
|
*Banners
Of The Month*
This space is provided to horological resources.