Hulk gamble?

[rmlovett1]

Originally Posted by travisb

Based on your scenario I'd pass.
I love the reference though.

I agree with Travis....
Love the watch! Could go on and on about investing....but, in the short term, 99% of all watches aren’t a worthwhile investment.....at least what I would personally consider a good ROI.
So, in your case, I’d pass.

[Little machines]

It’s only a watch that’s used to tell time . Too much thought for a watch. Rolex’s are great time pieces to wear and enjoy and if we get lucky they go up in value. Just purchase a time piece that you will wear and enjoy looking at . Good luck !

[DoctorSpazz]

It’s not going to get discontinued. Stop the fear mongering


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[herts9]

Even if it does get discontinued, there's tens of thousands of them out there.

With anything else, do your homework and don't overpay for the hype. Regardless of what comes and goes, if you ever need to part with it, you'll be safe.

Buy watches to WEAR them. Let the chips fall where they may after a few decades of happiness, should you decide to go that route.

[GGGMT]

Poor investment. Hard pass


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[bayerische]

Originally Posted by Xtralarg

Let someone buy it who would wear it, that's what watches were made for. Its people like you who are ruining this hobby.

Agreed.

[Rolex1983]

Originally Posted by padi56

Exactly.

I don't see it as a bad thing where people are interested in the value of the watch. For the flippers I am not a big fan of, they should find another way to make money as its pretty annoying how they are effecting the market.

For the ones interested in the value of their watch in the future in case they had to sell due to financial misfortune or something of that nature. Maybe affording the Rolex was hard for them and if a few things they planned don't go as planned they may need to sell their Rolex to keep things afloat. In those situations most would say they should not get a Rolex in the first place but some people have to consider future value for luxury items.

[Michael V]

I would never pay 1 cent over msrp for any Rolex.

With that being said.. I think you should buy at the absurd grey price and gamble.

[Tommy Smokeshow]

I just read op post this is soooo an investment post and he even gave us all the possible scenarios. Wow move on, time to put on the flame suit

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by Michael V

I would never pay 1 cent over msrp for any Rolex.

1 cent is that big a deal for you?

[Rolextellstime]

I would say use your cash and buy one, then use your credit facility and buy three more. The hulk will get discontinued and go up in value by at least $100. Then you sell all four and run like you robbed a bank. Definitely great investment strategy.

But seriously, I love and wear mine, I got it at retail and still not selling even if I could make a nice profit. Even if it doubled in value or it went down to 50% of retail makes absolutely no difference. Buy and wear watches you like. Like others have said, put your money in real investment vehicles, and watches are not one of them.

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[KingsTrumper]

Sorry to those offended by the question. I hoped by being open from the outset that replies would lead me in the right direction and they have.

I agree with all that say buy a watch to wear and all of mine are worn in rotation with the exception of a 57 triology edition speedy but more because it's not my cup of tea as I fell out of love with faux patina.

Reading through the replies has enlightened me. I think it's a little naive to think everyone has bought a rolex purely on the name alone and has no interest in it's ability to store value. There is always an exception to the rule of course. Being relatively new to the watch game (circa 2 years) I have entered in to an environment of FOMO and Hype so won't pretend to know of the "good ole days" where this forum was seemingly just watch talk and nobody ever mentioned value.

With reference to value retention. I think there are 3 types of watch buyer.

1. Who can afford whatever whenever
2. Can afford it but if all goes belly up needs to liquidate
3. Flipper

I would suggest with the economy as it stands and some hangover of the 08 recession some fall in to category 2 and it's more a case of ensuring there is value left in a piece if needed to sell quickly. My big assumption being that not everyone that buys a rolex can necessarily afford it or if they are stepping up from a less expensive brand they may have buyers remorse from buying a luxury item (likely the ones that lose sleep over micro scratches).

That said I think value, investment, retention etc. is just as valid a subject as an incoming thread.

[JacksonRain]

Originally Posted by brucethemanlee

Watches are not like stocks. You can’t sell these things at moments notice to take advantage of small upticks and downticks.

You forgot one other option:

- you sell the watch at massive premium but get robbed of the watch when u show up for the transaction



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I don't think OP should buy the Hulk strictly as an investment. But I have to disagree with your statement - these watches, only a select few, with the Hulk included, and several of the other models you have in your collection, can be liquidated 7 days a week, within a few hours, tops, for in some cases, several thousand dollars more than you paid.

OP, the Hulk is probably not going to go up in value more than 2 to 3 k at most in the next couple of years. Even if that happens, when you want to sell it, to a wholesaler / retailer, they have to make their profit too. If you do that, then best case scenario is that you will pretty much breakeven or make a few hundred dollars. If you are lucky to sell it yourself, you will not be able to charge trusted seller, reputable dealer Gray prices, so you would probably make 1 to 2k max.

Take care

[pbubsy]

I hope you buy it and lose money on a watch you didn't wear or enjoy.

[KingsTrumper]

Originally Posted by JacksonRain

I don't think OP should buy the Hulk strictly as an investment. But I have to disagree with your statement - these watches, only a select few, with the Hulk included, and several of the other models you have in your collection, can be liquidated 7 days a week, within a few hours, tops, for in some cases, several thousand dollars more than you paid.

OP, the Hulk is probably not going to go up in value more than 2 to 3 k at most in the next couple of years. Even if that happens, when you want to sell it, to a wholesaler / retailer, they have to make their profit too. If you do that, then best case scenario is that you will pretty much breakeven or make a few hundred dollars. If you are lucky to sell it yourself, you will not be able to charge trusted seller, reputable dealer Gray prices, so you would probably make 1 to 2k max.

Take care

Thank you for your reply. Certainly makes sense and whilst a couple of people have suggested me asking an "investment" question is the reason they don't like this forum anymore, it's people like you who have taken the time to thoughtfully answer the question that is why I do like this forum.

[llxhansenxll]

Originally Posted by brucethemanlee

Watches are not like stocks. You can’t sell these things at moments notice to take advantage of small upticks and downticks.

You forgot one other option:

- you sell the watch at massive premium but get robbed of the watch when u show up for the transaction



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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[KingsTrumper]

Originally Posted by pbubsy

I hope you buy it and lose money on a watch you didn't wear or enjoy.

I hope you never lose money and have a long and happy life... peace not war.

[Rado63]

Looking at C24 today out of 1272 116610 Subs, 521 or supposedly green dials. The hype is causing the pieces to be sent to market and not be worn. Purchasing a green dial sub today that has stickers in tact and remains unworn, will most likely have a higher return when selling at a future date. Any unworn "NOS" type version of anything usually will have a higher asking as time goes by.

[Calatrava r]

Most likely, given its bought at a premium, the best case outcome is a breakeven sale.

[jvb.nc]

Originally Posted by KingsTrumper

(SIGH - Why do people read / reply when I stated early it was an investment question).

because this isn’t an investment forum and people like you are as stated above ruining the hobby for people who might actually love to own and wear that watch forever.

[newu5er]

Originally Posted by jrs146

Truth is Rolex steel watches are now bought/sold like commodities. As a collector, it stinks. Also as a collector, it adds stability and liquidity to a collection. It’s a double edge sword.

I’m not a fan of investment related questions personally, but perhaps there should be a specific place for this on the forums. It’s just the reality we live in...

And I’ll take a shot at answering the OP’s question.

I see one of three outcomes.

1 - no change to Hulk. This will probably cause prices to remain stable, maybe they rise slightly.

2 - hulk gets discontinued. Prices will skyrocket and a buy now is smart.

3 - Hulk gets updated. If it’s only a movement change I speculate that prices on the old hulks will slightly go up. Rolex will certainly raise msrp on the new model and the demand for old ones will stay strong. If it’s a substantial change I speculate prices on older Hulks go p even more as flippers do their best to make a market on the discontinued model.

So I really don’t see much risk in buying a hulk.

Awesome answer. I understand the not liking an "investment thread" part of the conversation, but agree that the reality is there are so many types of people drawn to so many types of things in this world for so many reasons. This forum is likely the best resource for all things Rolex, so it makes sense that someone would ask a question like OP did. I don't see people like that ruining a hobby - there's just as many examples for Legos, Cars, Coins etc. and there will always be those that exist among us who have a monetary reason for entering a hobby. There's no reason to chastise anyone for being different or having different motives - in fact what the OP is talking is essentially the grey business where many of us purchase our watches...it's just on a way smaller scale...a single watch.
I would be remiss if I didn't contribute an answer to the original question, so I will agree that if you have to ask the question, you already missed most of the upside in the opportunity. I see this a lot for traditional investing on related forums.

[Flyfisher]

To invest in production watches is not investing.

I would gently suggest that you may want to reevaluate your investment strategy.

[dtwer]

I think your analysis pretty much answered your own question; the down side risks > up side risks.

Plus, watches are not very liquid as an investment instrument, relative to other investment instrument. Unless you have a reliable c2c business channel you will have to rely on a middleman to sell them. Both involve certain degree of risk.

[KBM]

You're in the wrong forum.

[Bigblu10]

Originally Posted by Uggi

If you were offered a Rainbow Daytona at MSRP would that be a bad investment?

An impossible hypothetical. Those watches are not just offered to any Joe Schmo off the street. And price on secondary market is around 250K. Let me know how that is a good investment?

[jon54]

Originally Posted by brandrea

So this is or isn’t an investment thread ... I’m confused

Bad investment..

[KingsTrumper]

Originally Posted by newu5er

Awesome answer. I understand the not liking an "investment thread" part of the conversation, but agree that the reality is there are so many types of people drawn to so many types of things in this world for so many reasons. This forum is likely the best resource for all things Rolex, so it makes sense that someone would ask a question like OP did. I don't see people like that ruining a hobby - there's just as many examples for Legos, Cars, Coins etc. and there will always be those that exist among us who have a monetary reason for entering a hobby. There's no reason to chastise anyone for being different or having different motives - in fact what the OP is talking is essentially the grey business where many of us purchase our watches...it's just on a way smaller scale...a single watch.
I would be remiss if I didn't contribute an answer to the original question, so I will agree that if you have to ask the question, you already missed most of the upside in the opportunity. I see this a lot for traditional investing on related forums.

Thank you. I agree with your answer. One of those... should have bought 3 years ago moments.

[Geckobros]

Originally Posted by KingsTrumper

Being relatively new to the watch game (circa 2 years) ...

...With reference to value retention. I think there are 3 types of watch buyer.

1. Who can afford whatever whenever
2. Can afford it but if all goes belly up needs to liquidate
3. Flipper

Sounds like you got it figured out. You don't need our advice or opinions.

[KingsTrumper]

Originally Posted by dtwer

I think your analysis pretty much answered your own question; the down side risks > up side risks.

Plus, watches are not very liquid as an investment instrument, relative to other investment instrument. Unless you have a reliable c2c business channel you will have to rely on a middleman to sell them. Both involve certain degree of risk.

I agree. With the middleman costs we are down to sheckles along with the ifs, buts and maybes of it being discontinued it's not a viable option. Thank you.

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by Bigblu10

An impossible hypothetical. Those watches are not just offered to any Joe Schmo off the street. And price on secondary market is around 250K. Let me know how that is a good investment?

But surely you understood the point? It wasn't even subtle. Substitute the Rainbow Daytona for a steel Daytona. Or a Hulk. Or a Pepsi. Or a Skydweller. Or any other watch trading on the grey market over MSRP. Same point. A watch can be bought for x and sold for 2x very quickly. That makes it an "investment" opportunity no matter how much that bothers WIS types like us. You don't like it, I don't like it - but that's the reality all around us. Sorry if you thought this quite general point was exclusive to one single watch in the Rainbow Daytona.