Nautilus Starting to lose it's luster?

[fsprow]

Future price trends don't really matter to me since I rarely sell a watch - but I'd note that the goods (autos, jewelry, furniture .... ) that have gained substantially in price over the years are those that were produced in small quantities and designed by an artist who developed an international reputation (Gerald Genta in this case, as with the AP Royal Oak).

Although I have and like several Rolex models, as mass produced items I would not expect much long term appreciation, in contrast to the 5711 which meets the criteria I have noted.

[DC116710LN]

Originally Posted by JR16

Let’s say hypothetically a 5711/12 becomes easily attainable at retail 10 years from now? Is that really relevant to someone who wants one now ? That’s a long time of not being to enjoy a watch. So what “cost” per year to enjoy it sooner is it worth ? Well, that will be a diff number for everyone. Don’t get me wrong, I would never pay market price now- but someone whose salary is quadruple mine? Maybe it’s worth it to them. (Full disclosure, I got my 5712 in 2019 at retail from an AD....and IMO it is worth the hype, price aside).


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I agree - everyone will need to determine what premium is justifiable to them

[Nav01L]

Originally Posted by mongrelnomoad

Eh... not to undermine the Nautilus but it was far from “iconic”, let alone “one of the most iconic... references” until the mad hype of the last few years. When I bought my Royal Oak in the ‘90s, the Nautilus was very much considered “the other” Genta steel sports watch, and a bit of a cynical copycat.

Kool-aid y’all.

Good to see some people still know that

[Nav01L]

Originally Posted by DC116710LN

I agree - everyone will need to determine what premium is justifiable to them

Indeed, but that’s not what drives these prices. The irony is that the demand is driven by the perception that its something that increases in value, as soon as it won’t have for a while, it could indeed lose favor with a community that hasn’t cared much for the Nautilus for long enough.

[JR16]

Originally Posted by Nav01L

Indeed, but that’s not what drives these prices. The irony is that the demand is driven by the perception that its something that increases in value, as soon as it won’t have for a while, it could indeed lose favor with a community that hasn’t cared much for the Nautilus for long enough.

There may be some truth in this, but desire to own what many think is an amazing watch also drives demand ... I bought my 5712 and 5167 to wear and own forever , and don’t care if they end up selling for less than msrp 20 years down the road.


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[DC116710LN]

Originally Posted by Nav01L

Indeed, but that’s not what drives these prices. The irony is that the demand is driven by the perception that its something that increases in value, as soon as it won’t have for a while, it could indeed lose favor with a community that hasn’t cared much for the Nautilus for long enough.

Perception of scarcity and ROI calculations are two (of many) factors which influence the premium that buyers are willing to justify

[Nav01L]

Originally Posted by JR16

There may be some truth in this, but desire to own what many think is an amazing watch also drives demand ... I bought my 5712 and 5167 to wear and own forever , and don’t care if they end up selling for less than msrp 20 years down the road.


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I understand that and that’s great, but everyone seems to be saying that about their Nautilus, which has me wondering, where were all these folks for the 40years in which the Nautilus was readily available and worn mainly by people who were not sophisticated enough to know it was merely a derivation of - and back then - not as much of an icon as the Royal Oak. After the hype, everyone seems to believe that these things used to be popular and in super high demand forever, but the truth is, as much for the Royal Oak as for the Nautilus, they used to be fairly slow sellers back when they were bought on the basis of their „substance“, as recently as 2010. It’s only now that everyone wants one and seemingly no one is wearing them for fear of harming their value.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by fsprow

Future price trends don't really matter to me since I rarely sell a watch - but I'd note that the goods (autos, jewelry, furniture .... ) that have gained substantially in price over the years are those that were produced in small quantities and designed by an artist who developed an international reputation (Gerald Genta in this case, as with the AP Royal Oak).

Although I have and like several Rolex models, as mass produced items I would not expect much long term appreciation, in contrast to the 5711 which meets the criteria I have noted.

This is spot on, I have noticed a similar trend in special edition and classic cars. Interestingly enough, handbags have been outperforming arts, cars etc (good short read below).

https://robbreport.com/style/accesso...items-2931458/

[Uros]

Wow...a lot of emotions here, of course nobody wants to end up paying huge premium and later end up with watch being available at retail or even less with tax free...but thats the (potential) price of the hype...

My 2 cents, history is good teacher, if something was sold at retail 5 to 10 yrs ago why wouldnt it be sold again.

In 2016 have bought my Jumbo in AD with 5perc discount...covid19 may bring that time sooner than we think...


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[rumnyc]

Originally Posted by Nav01L

I understand that and that’s great, but everyone seems to be saying that about their Nautilus, which has me wondering, where were all these folks for the 40years in which the Nautilus was readily available and worn mainly by people who were not sophisticated enough to know it was merely a derivation of - and back then - not as much of an icon as the Royal Oak. After the hype, everyone seems to believe that these things used to be popular and in super high demand forever, but the truth is, as much for the Royal Oak as for the Nautilus, they used to be fairly slow sellers back when they were bought on the basis of their „substance“, as recently as 2010. It’s only now that everyone wants one and seemingly no one is wearing them for fear of harming their value.

This....


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[Knappo 1307]

Originally Posted by GoingPlaces

Nice piece but never really did anything for me. To me it's a 30K watch, period.

This....

[Uros]

Originally Posted by rumnyc

This....


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+1


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[superdog]

I love the Nautilus.

And I’m fine with paying over. But not for a simple three hander. To me, I like the complications and those are the only ones that are “worth it” imo. But to each their own.

I don’t see prices ever dropping significantly. Too many people want them. Too few watches. Law of supply and demand.

[IBDOC]

Originally Posted by superdog

I don’t see prices ever dropping significantly. Too many people want them. Too few watches. Law of supply and demand.

Prices are determined according to supply and demand, yes. But neither supply nor demand are static over time which many have pointed out.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by IBDOC

Prices are determined according to supply and demand, yes. But neither supply nor demand are static over time which many have pointed out.

you are absolutely correct. of course. and thank you for pointing out my use of ever.

clearly, that is impossible to tell.

But if a worldwide pandemic does not slow down the demand side, I cant imagine what will.

[IBDOC]

Originally Posted by superdog

you are absolutely correct. of course. and thank you for pointing out my use of ever. But if a worldwide pandemic does not slow down the demand side, I cant imagine what will.

A world wide world war and the great depression didn’t slow down the demand for watches either. But somehow pocket watches still bit the dust. It helps to view things from the cultural perspective too aside from the purely economical one. Demand isn’t just fueled by money. Things change, people change, preferences change, hence demand changes. Stainless steel integrated bracelet sports watches are all the rage today. In a few years they might not be. Doesn’t matter how the economy and luxury consumption purchasing power looks like if the apetite for the good itself has waned.

[Fleetlord]

Patek limits production and distribution of these for a reason.

Unless they reverse course on this or the economy really collapses to the point that potential buyers of these are DIRECTLY affected, then I see no reason for prices to fall back to retail.

There is simply too much money chasing too few goods.

Also, dealers who paid big $$ to have these to resell aren't suddenly going to have a fire sale to cut bait and run...so no pricing on these will not implode.

[IBDOC]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Patek limits production and distribution of these for a reason.

Unless they reverse course on this or the economy really collapses to the point that potential buyers of these are DIRECTLY affected, then I see no reason for prices to fall back to retail.

There is simply too much money chasing too few goods.

Also, dealers who paid big $$ to have these to resell aren't suddenly going to have a fire sale to cut bait and run...so no pricing on these will not implode.

5100 limited ed prices didn’t collapse due to any of those reasons you stated. It simply went out of fashion. Just like Franck Mullers, Tourbillons and 34mm PM chronographs also did. Doesn’t matter what Patek or dealers do to control supply. If the watch stops being the it thing then prices will follow demand.

[martinr]

Apparently possibly maybe at some unknown time in the future things may be different or maybe they won’t. Great discussion.

[Chiboy]

Although Patek is a much different company than, say, Hublot, were folks here saying the same thing about Hublot's everlasting hotness way back when? I have only been here about four years, and don't really know anything about former "flavors of the month/year/decade" but I can imagine that sometimes things go out of fashion.

To me, $60k for a simple SS three handed, but pretty watch, seems difficult to sustain. I agree that Patek leverages its hotness to bring folks into the showroom, and sell them other watches in the hopes of one day getting a Naut. So they have a real vested interest in keeping the Nautilus hot. But lots of things in fashion don't stay forever fashionable.

We'll see. I have no dog in the race. I'll never be able to get one at retail and will never pay gold/platinum perpetual calendar money for a simple SS watch.

[Token74]

Don’t see why Nautilus prices would soften.

I have a 5990and could make an argument for the prices of this model softening as it’s a bit niche. That said, it probably won’t have a long production run so maybe prices will hold.

The 5711 though is a true classic. It has legendary status due to its connection with the Royal Oak and Gerald Genta.

It is one of the watches that changed the market. And along with the Royal Oak, looks basically the same now as it did nearly 50 years ago! How many products look identical (to the untrained eye) 50 years on? People talk about the Submariner being an iconic design, and in some ways it is, but it looks nothing like the original, and is significantly different even to the 5-digit references.

In my view, the Nautilus is under-appreciated because it is seen by many as a basic watch which in many ways can’t really justify the Patek badge. But...in terms of design, it is almost untouchable.


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[superdog]

Originally Posted by IBDOC

A world wide world war and the great depression didn’t slow down the demand for watches either. But somehow pocket watches still bit the dust. It helps to view things from the cultural perspective too aside from the purely economical one. Demand isn’t just fueled by money. Things change, people change, preferences change, hence demand changes. Stainless steel integrated bracelet sports watches are all the rage today. In a few years they might not be. Doesn’t matter how the economy and luxury consumption purchasing power looks like if the apetite for the good itself has waned.

well thats a fair point.

and only time will tell.

great discussion. I would be that this the market doesn't soften. But we will see.

[cbalster]

Originally Posted by IBDOC

5100 limited ed prices didn’t collapse due to any of those reasons you stated. It simply went out of fashion. Just like Franck Mullers, Tourbillons and 34mm PM chronographs also did. Doesn’t matter what Patek or dealers do to control supply. If the watch stops being the it thing then prices will follow demand.

You forgot about watches on straps (especially Panerai), the Yachtmaster, and cases in yellow gold.

[bob101]

You should see the price for R Mille “simple 3 handers” lol

[superdog]

Originally Posted by bob101

You should see the price for R Mille “simple 3 handers” lol

so grateful that those do nothing for me.

I have enough problems as it is.

[Chiboy]

Originally Posted by bob101

You should see the price for R Mille “simple 3 handers” lol

I could more easily imagine 5711s priced at six digits than I can most RM's being worth more in ten years than they are now.

[IBDOC]

Originally Posted by Token74

Don’t see why Nautilus prices would soften.

I have a 5990and could make an argument for the prices of this model softening as it’s a bit niche. That said, it probably won’t have a long production run so maybe prices will hold.

The 5711 though is a true classic. It has legendary status due to its connection with the Royal Oak and Gerald Genta.

It is one of the watches that changed the market. And along with the Royal Oak, looks basically the same now as it did nearly 50 years ago! How many products look identical (to the untrained eye) 50 years on? People talk about the Submariner being an iconic design, and in some ways it is, but it looks nothing like the original, and is significantly different even to the 5-digit references.

In my view, the Nautilus is under-appreciated because it is seen by many as a basic watch which in many ways can’t really justify the Patek badge. But...in terms of design, it is almost untouchable.


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*True Classic*
*Unchanged for 50 years*
* Iconic design*
*Legendary status

-> only been really hot less than 5 of those 50 years

*Untouchable*


...OK.

*

[fsprow]

[QUOTE=Uros;10782000]Wow...a lot of emotions here, of course nobody wants to end up paying huge premium and later end up with watch being available at retail or even less with tax free...but thats the (potential) price of the hype...

My 2 cents, history is good teacher, if something was sold at retail 5 to 10 yrs ago why wouldnt it be sold again.

Not my view of history. A Ferrari 250 had an MSRP in the ‘60s of $30,000. Now a million.

[chiscott_29]

Originally Posted by fsprow

My 2 cents, history is good teacher, if something was sold at retail 5 to 10 yrs ago why wouldnt it be sold again.

Not my view of history. A Ferrari 250 had an MSRP in the ‘60s of $30,000. Now a million.

I think we need to simply acknowledge that there's been a sea change over the last 10 years:

- Sites/Blogs/Businesses that are purely dedicated to watches and are successful

- Explosion of social media and it's influence on every human being

- Exploitation of scarcity and exclusivity by luxury goods companies

- Massive worldwide trend towards casual work settings, casual clothing, casual social gatherings, etc., all of which put a higher demand and value on stainless steel and sport watch models

- Lack of options to earn a meaningful return outside of equity markets

All of these things (and more) have created a legitimate industry - what we now call the watch market. Yes, there is now a "watch market". Just like there is a stock market, an art market, a collectible car market.

Macroeconomic factors will impact the watch market just like it does other markets...it won't be immune to ups and downs.

All of this noted, do I think things will ever go back to "the way they were"? Where watches are available at boutiques at SRP? Or, that premiums will disappear on whatever watches are currently "hot"? That the secondary market will go away?

To be direct - Not a chance in hell.

[Seddyspaghetti]

I wish 5711 prices would drop but i highly doubt it :/