COVID-19 and Home Values?

[golfgrouch]

We all know how COVID-19 is decimating stock values. But how will it affect our home values? Unlike stocks, you can't see what your house is worth at a given moment. Are there any professionals here that can shed some light?

Thanks for any valuable input.

[Seibei]

Originally Posted by golfgrouch

We all know how COVID-19 is decimating stock values. But how will it affect our home values? Unlike stocks, you can't see what your house is worth at a given moment. Are there any professionals here that can shed some light?

Thanks for any valuable input.

If you have to sell right now I suspect you are in trouble. If you don't have to sell, then everything should be fine since while prices may take a hit in the short term they are most likely to recover in the long term.

[watchmework]

FWIW and I'm definitely not a real estate professional but as a start, both Redfin and Zillow are showing an increase in home values over the past week...that, I'm assuming, is largely because of recent sales in the area but I haven't seen any negative impact to the property value in my area at least.

I'm sure it all depends on the market you're in...three separate homes in the past week and a half have been listen in my immediate neighborhood, all were pending contingent 1-3 days later.

[Burlington]

We are also considering this now. My offer accepted post of a week ago feels like a lifetime ago now as this thing has evolved.

[Doc Savage]

While I don't revel in anyone's difficulties, I have twice sold a house in a down market and lost close to $100k total. I might be moving this summer, so I'd love to be on the right end of real estate buying for a change.

[Hard_Six]

I think historical lows in mortgage rates are propping things up for the time being. Still a good bit of activity out there.

[Duey]

Las Vegas over the next 90 days will show you where were going.

[Blansky]

With Covid-19 I value my home even more since apparently I’ll be spending more time there.

[newu5er]

I haven't been in real estate very long. In fact I've never been in real estate, but generally speaking, something like this doesn't directly effect the housing market, it's the loss of jobs, investments and eroded consumer confidence that creates and atmosphere were people don't want the change associated with a new primary residence and the payment that comes with it. Especially in the case of trading up.

In a recession, several economic factors converge to create an economic scenario where people who have to sell may need to cut price to get their property to move. If you're losing 20% or 30% of your portfolio it doesn't exactly inspire confidence to go close on a new house.

[Old Farmer]

I am professionally qualified to speak on home/house values, but only in Australia and to a limited extent, the UK. We have not seen any real impact yet, but, in my opinion, we will within the next 2-4 months.
Unemployment is tipped to triple in Aust before Oct,this will impact on peoples ability to service a mortgage.If you have secure employment, bunker down, if you are casual or other like employee, talk to your lender, now, not when it gets nasty.

[Art 1]

Sky high in Toronto area. One listed 2 days ago at $399,000 and went yesterday for $505’000. Crazy. Most start off around $600,000 and sell for $675,000. Seems about the average.

[Recondope]

I don't know about long term effects but the entire Bay Area could use a reality check when 1 million gets you a dilapidated shack.

[djgallo]

Housing in the US.... will follow the job market....with a few exceptions....

[yonexsp]

Originally Posted by Art 1

Sky high in Toronto area. One listed 2 days ago at $399,000 and went yesterday for $505’000. Crazy. Most start off around $600,000 and sell for $675,000. Seems about the average.

Toronto is for the birds. I wonder how all the Airbnb condo hoarders are going to fare down near the Gartner soon.

[bayerische]

It all goes hand in hand. Let us keep on destroying.

[RWH]

Originally Posted by yonexsp

Toronto is for the birds. I wonder how all the Airbnb condo hoarders are going to fare down near the Gartner soon.

Airbnb hosts are going to be hit really really hard with the economy heading to the sewers and all the travel cancellations. I personally know one that if this keeps up for 2 more months he will go into default on many properties since the Airbnb income covers the mortgages

[enjoythemusic]

Pricing affects all nearly equal accross the board (generally speaking). Thus it is kinda a 1:1 of you selling 'cheap' to then buying elsewhere 'cheap'. The great news is that lower home value also lowers your tax burden

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by Art 1

Sky high in Toronto area. One listed 2 days ago at $399,000 and went yesterday for $505’000. Crazy. Most start off around $600,000 and sell for $675,000. Seems about the average.

That must be a pretty doggy area my friend. The average house price in Toronto a little over a million.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/toronto-...k-35-1.1385675

[Art 1]

Originally Posted by brandrea

That must be a pretty doggy area my friend. The average house price in Toronto a little over a million.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/toronto-...k-35-1.1385675

I was meaning more out our way.

[Tha Baron]

Originally Posted by djgallo

Housing in the US.... will follow the job market....with a few exceptions....

I’m interested in a 2nd home in Naples FL... I’m guessing some inventory frees up by next year. The hit to investment values and retirement incomes

[cda555]

My mom is an agent and had two homes fall out of escrow this week. When she spoke with her escrow rep she was told that everyone is backing out.

[Seibei]

Originally Posted by cda555

My mom is an agent and had two homes fall out of escrow this week. When she spoke with her escrow rep she was told that everyone is backing out.

Exactly. People are going to start defaulting on mortgages. That is only going to push the market down. If you are thinking of buying, wait. If you are thinking of selling, do it ASAP.

[bayerische]

Originally Posted by Seibei

If you are thinking of selling, do it ASAP.

I honestly think this is close to impossible now.




Here we are already seeing car dealerships "false" selling cars in advertising just to try and project "normality" to the consumer. I don't think that it will work.

Feels like living in North Korea as soon as you go into town. Barely any traffic, shops empty. It hasn't even been a week, and businesses are already on their knees!

[dba]

Originally Posted by Seibei

If you are thinking of buying, wait. If you are thinking of selling, do it ASAP.

We put an offer on a home that dropped $200k yesterday. We have the cash and aren't in a super hurry to sell our existing one.

Originally Posted by bayerische

I honestly think this is close to impossible now.

Here we are already seeing car dealerships "false" selling cars in advertising just to try and project "normality" to the consumer. I don't think that it will work.

Feels like living in North Korea as soon as you go into town. Barely any traffic, shops empty. It hasn't even been a week, and businesses are already on their knees!

I've never heard an anecdote from someone actually from N. Korea. Is it as bad as the media portrays?

[The Libertine]

Originally Posted by bayerische

I honestly think this is close to impossible now.

Here we are already seeing car dealerships "false" selling cars in advertising just to try and project "normality" to the consumer. I don't think that it will work.

Feels like living in North Korea as soon as you go into town. Barely any traffic, shops empty. It hasn't even been a week, and businesses are already on their knees!

Agree.

[GB-man]

No question housing is being affected. Hard to say the extent right now but buyers are backing out and who the hell wants strangers coming into their home in this environment. Its basically like the e brake has been thrown on.

[Beauregard]

Our home is on a hill with great fields of fire backed up to the ocean, it's a highly defensible six acres. I suspect in the event of the apocalypse our home has great value.

[vman]

Originally Posted by Beauregard

Our home is on a hill with great fields of fire backed up to the ocean, it's a highly defensible six acres. I suspect in the event of the apocalypse our home has great value.

Where you live, is quite awesome indeed. Judging by the location in your signature ;-)

[vman]

Here is my understanding based on the conversation with people who are selling houses and real estate agents.

Depending on where and when you bought the house, you may be okay. Folks in highly desirable areas who bought during 2008-2010 are still making significant profits. For some, losing $50K-100K on a house hurts a bit but does not matter much.

However, many people are pulling out. My friend is a real estate agent in the area that is less hot than, say SF Bay, says that the demand is down. The supply, ironically, is down too because people do not want to sell. When supply and demand are down, things get interesting. You can get fewer houses with little changes to price, more houses with slight price decrease, or fewer houses with slight price increase. It really depends on the difference in changes between supply and demand.

Here is another perspective: stop treating your house like a tradable asset. Learn how to manage wealth so you don't have capital tied up in a single asset. If you do that, then you increase your chances of financial well-being in times like these.

[Rollie8]

Originally Posted by djgallo

Housing in the US.... will follow the job market....with a few exceptions....

Indeed. With the exception of real estate markets that are global and are accessed by foreign buyers as a store of value into real assets (ie. London, NYC), property values have historically had a very high correlation to the local employment outlook and health, since debt service on mortgages are paid with wages earned from work for most typical households. Given their illiquid nature and less real-time, marking to market, I suspect we will see how values hold up in the next 2-3 months but expect a decline. Even historically low rates aren't enough to spur strong demand if people are worried about their jobs and or the negative wealth effect on their public markets portfolios.