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24 April 2024, 02:56 AM | #1 |
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Sports steel allocations to ADs
I did a rough calculations as follows:
1. Typical AD gets 50 watches per month. 2. About 1/3 are sports models in Sub, GMT, Daytona, AK, Explorers, YM, SD 3. Out of ~17 sports models, ~5 are TT and gold. 4. That leaves about 12 steel sports watches. Maybe ~5 Subs and 1 or less for other models. |
24 April 2024, 02:59 AM | #2 |
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Hope one is mine .. waiting on a special piece ..
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24 April 2024, 03:08 AM | #3 |
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Used to work for Goldsmiths. We used to get about 12 watches a month - 2/3 SS Sports.
The rest were heavy hitter pieces that we had to shift in order to prove to our Rolex rep that we were worthy of having Daytona's etc. Our rep would micromanage our manager and if he said jump the manager would say how high.... Sent from my SM-S918B using Tapatalk |
24 April 2024, 03:25 AM | #4 | |
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24 April 2024, 03:28 AM | #5 | |
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24 April 2024, 03:35 AM | #6 | |
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Don’t really believe they don’t get any more than that. I opened the box my AD (a small familiy owned AD) gets every friday and this what it looks like. There was 10-12 watches. 1 steel daytona, 1 airking, 1 skydweller, 1 day date and the rest ladies watches. We opened a Patek box there was 6 watches. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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24 April 2024, 03:42 AM | #7 | |
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And the numbers you're describing are far higher than what the other poster described. At 10-12 watches per week with 52 weeks a year, that's still 520-624 watches a year for a small family AD. |
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24 April 2024, 03:43 AM | #8 |
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It would be interesting to get an insight from someone in the know as to how many an allocation would be
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24 April 2024, 03:49 AM | #9 | |
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24 April 2024, 03:52 AM | #10 |
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In the US there are tiers of dealers with the Rolex only Boutiques at the top of the food chain. Any AD that is still left after the continued closings gets more than a dozen a month.
2019, the year I got my 116500, my AD got at least 30 with equal numbers of the two dial colors. I was told their “floorplan” was 275 watches per month, i.e. that’s what they were expected to sell. Obviously every dealer doesn’t get that many but from personal experience I believe that a lot more than the stories of “we only got one of those this year.” |
24 April 2024, 03:58 AM | #11 | |
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Some weeks they get less watches. They have to have 30 watches in stock at all time or they get a red flag. They started to get less watches last year, and they contacted Rolex, then the represant from Rolex (not direct from Rolex) told them they have to rebuild the store and now they get more watches again. |
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24 April 2024, 04:35 AM | #12 |
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Rolex makes ~1m watches annually. There are roughly 1400-1500 ADs in the world. Different ADs get different number of allocations however number of watches per dealer comes to about 600.
I don’t know if true or not but several SAs told me about 2/3 are classic models (DJ, Lady DJ, DD, OP, SkyD, 1908, etc) and about 1/3 are sports models. I made an assumption about 30% of sports models come in TT or Gold. It appears that way more Subs are floating around than other sports models and I estimated 4-5 steel subs (124060, 126610 LN and LV) come out of 50 or so total watches in a month. |
24 April 2024, 05:14 AM | #13 | |
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24 April 2024, 05:20 AM | #14 |
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I doubt any AD gets 50 watches per month. More like 20 for a big AD and down from there. There is a reason why SS sports Rolex sell for a premium used. It is because supply to ADs is very limited and is far outpaced by demand. There was a time when cases were generally full and only when watches were sold Rolex would send more watches, So an AD that did not sell a lot of watches did not have much coming in, just enough to keep the case full and no more. When all the cases emptied, supply could not begin to keep up.
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24 April 2024, 05:22 AM | #15 | |
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Green sub and BLNR on jubilee is the one they get the most of the hot models. |
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24 April 2024, 05:23 AM | #16 |
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Interesting! I was told in June 2022 by an AD in Maui that they get 1 Sub LV a month, which really doesn't seem like a lot to me!
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24 April 2024, 05:26 AM | #17 | |
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That’s crazy! DSW got 4 2024 BLROs just last week. The flip rate has got to be like 90% on the SS models Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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24 April 2024, 05:27 AM | #18 |
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It all depends on relationship I guess. Waited 3 weeks for the LV and asked for the MK2 when I was there and they said no worries that I will get it the 8 of June.
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24 April 2024, 06:04 AM | #19 | |
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There's no way a small family AD is getting average or more than average allocation is there?
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24 April 2024, 06:12 AM | #20 |
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If that were the case, the. Your chances of getting a watch at a small AD should be much better. They obviously get allocated less and the bigger ADs get more, but also have more customers and longer lists.
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24 April 2024, 06:28 AM | #21 | |
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24 April 2024, 06:49 AM | #22 |
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I was told at my AD in Southern California, they received about 15 watches per week. Most are DateJust, and a few sport watches...
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24 April 2024, 07:18 AM | #23 | |
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24 April 2024, 09:51 AM | #24 | |
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In late 2019, I heard from two sources that the biggest volume dealers in the US for that year were the Boutiques of Wempe New York, Geary’s Santa Monica, and Deutsch’s Houston. If you know the markets in those cities, it makes perfect sense. |
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24 April 2024, 10:41 AM | #25 |
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I went in to visit my SA to get a ballpark idea of where I’m at wait wise, but he made it sound like they haven’t gotten any SS Subs in lately, says they come in waves. He wouldn’t commit to a time, just that I should get one this summer. Just in my brief 10 minute visit, there were 3 requests to be added to a wait for a sub or explorer and a line queuing out the door.
They had TT watches to sell, but demand is SS. |
24 April 2024, 02:09 PM | #26 | |
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24 April 2024, 02:24 PM | #27 |
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Amusing
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24 April 2024, 07:33 PM | #28 | |
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I think your estimate is too optimistic wrt Sub allocations Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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24 April 2024, 11:23 PM | #29 |
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Interesting discussion. Just doing the math there are still not enough watches to go around and that is just based on our speculation without hard data.
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24 April 2024, 11:33 PM | #30 |
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Interesting conversation. I literally have no idea how many watches my AD would get in a month.
They are a boutique in the GTA, so I’d image they are close to the top of the food chain volume wise. Their store is quite large and just to pay the rent, they’d have to be moving a lot of units every month. |
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