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Old 20 January 2024, 02:46 AM   #1
Ceriano
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When do you think secondary market prices will bottom out?

Summer is usually the weakest month, do you think we finally see the bottom in the summer of 2024? What would take for the market to capitulate?
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Old 20 January 2024, 03:23 AM   #2
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I think most model already bottomed with a few notable exceptions including the Pepsi. The Daytona, the new one, won't go down for a few years, but the last gen one is probably close if not at the bottom imho.

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Old 20 January 2024, 10:33 AM   #3
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I think most model already bottomed with a few notable exceptions including the Pepsi. The Daytona, the new one, won't go down for a few years, but the last gen one is probably close if not at the bottom imho.

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Idk. I think the 116500 has room to fall. With Zenith Daytonas in the low 20s, I think the ceramic have room to go down. Either the 16520 is great value or the 500 is expensive.
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Old 20 January 2024, 11:06 AM   #4
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Idk. I think the 116500 has room to fall. With Zenith Daytonas in the low 20s, I think the ceramic have room to go down. Either the 16520 is great value or the 500 is expensive.
Where are zeniths in the low 20s? I am looking for one and am not seeing that.
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Old 20 January 2024, 11:30 AM   #5
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Where are zeniths in the low 20s? I am looking for one and am not seeing that.
Tim just sold this and it was mint.

https://www.fogcityvintage.com/produ...ith-daytona-5/

There’s a bunch on Moda in high teens/low 20s as well.
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Old 20 January 2024, 12:00 PM   #6
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Tim just sold this and it was mint.

https://www.fogcityvintage.com/produ...ith-daytona-5/

Thereís a bunch on Moda in high teens/low 20s as well.
Thanks, never heard of Fog City Vintage before! Iím not on Moda, looking more at usual suspects like HQ Milton and Tropical Watch. Any other good sites I should check?
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Old 20 January 2024, 03:35 AM   #7
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As more and more people post less and less photos on Facebook, Instagram, etc... or quitting social media completely, the need to "flex" a luxury lifestyle has drastically diminished.

Since the need is diminishing, the market is adgusting.
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Old 20 January 2024, 03:43 AM   #8
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In the near term, I think used market prices have bottomed out. If those prices were to soften further, demand will soften cascading everything further down. If there is a real cost to accumulating Rolex watches by their depreciation, people will want to own less of them. Life was a lot simpler where all Rolex lost value on the used markets. Demand for new was a lot more stable and manageable.
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Old 20 January 2024, 03:40 AM   #9
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I didn’t know watches follow a seasonal trading range. Learned something new here today.
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Old 20 January 2024, 03:47 AM   #10
Calatrava r
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I didnít know watches follow a seasonal trading range. Learned something new here today.
Before the hype and demand when nuts, the summer months were traditionally a slow period in watch sales. In the past few years there hasnít been a slow period for the hot brands and models.
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Old 8 February 2024, 08:21 AM   #11
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I didnít know watches follow a seasonal trading range. Learned something new here today.
They don't follow a "seasonal" trading range like some equities do, but in fairness, watches' market prices mirror other hobbies' pricing. And those cycles can stretch in the years.
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Old 8 February 2024, 08:34 AM   #12
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I personally expect them to fall significantly more over the coming months and years.

The whole market was fuelled by a mad hype to own the latest fashion item, a luxury watch, and to make a quick buck by flipping watches.

Fashions and fads pass fast. I expect in a few years to see very few active members on here with ‘20-‘22 registered accounts.

Next, the profit of flipping is almost entirely gone on most models as the brands maximise their profit, and greys pay low for watches.

As such the demand fuelling everything will disappear, and the watches will start to be available at retail more and more readily. This will force grey dealers to drop their prices or else they just won’t sell.

Just my view on your Q.
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Old 8 February 2024, 11:09 PM   #13
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I personally expect them to fall significantly more over the coming months and years.

The whole market was fuelled by a mad hype to own the latest fashion item, a luxury watch, and to make a quick buck by flipping watches.

Fashions and fads pass fast. I expect in a few years to see very few active members on here with Ď20-Ď22 registered accounts.

Next, the profit of flipping is almost entirely gone on most models as the brands maximise their profit, and greys pay low for watches.

As such the demand fuelling everything will disappear, and the watches will start to be available at retail more and more readily. This will force grey dealers to drop their prices or else they just wonít sell.

Just my view on your Q.
I joined the forum last year, ďpost-hypeĒÖ got my ďhypeĒ Rolex in 2019, pre-hype. It was already trading at a 50%++ premium to msrp at that time (SS Daytona). For context had been interested in and buying watches for perhaps 15 years prior to getting my first Rolex.

When I saw prices rocket I knew it wouldnít last. I donít actively trade in/out of my collectibles so didnít sell any watches. Same with other things I collect.

I also didnít add anything that fell into a ďhypeĒ category. I didnít entirely stop buying but added nothing people were speculating on.

That speculative sub-segment fell back and is (in my view) fully corrected today. There will be some further easing but would be surprised it anything dramatic. I imagine depleted savings for big swaths of the population here in the US will eventually become a real drag (hasnít happened) but I think for Rolex that hit has already been felt, along some other aspirational luxury goods.

The tricky part is that any further macro erosion will support central bank aggression with rate reductions - restarting the cycle. So while we may not be at absolute bottom today it is likely weíre a) not far off and b) as likely to be in a boom cycle again in 24 months from now.
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Old 9 February 2024, 12:33 AM   #14
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I joined the forum last year, “post-hype”… got my “hype” Rolex in 2019, pre-hype. It was already trading at a 50%++ premium to msrp at that time (SS Daytona). For context had been interested in and buying watches for perhaps 15 years prior to getting my first Rolex.

When I saw prices rocket I knew it wouldn’t last. I don’t actively trade in/out of my collectibles so didn’t sell any watches. Same with other things I collect.

I also didn’t add anything that fell into a “hype” category. I didn’t entirely stop buying but added nothing people were speculating on.

That speculative sub-segment fell back and is (in my view) fully corrected today. There will be some further easing but would be surprised it anything dramatic. I imagine depleted savings for big swaths of the population here in the US will eventually become a real drag (hasn’t happened) but I think for Rolex that hit has already been felt, along some other aspirational luxury goods.

The tricky part is that any further macro erosion will support central bank aggression with rate reductions - restarting the cycle. So while we may not be at absolute bottom today it is likely we’re a) not far off and b) as likely to be in a boom cycle again in 24 months from now.
You’re drawing a 1:1 correlation to fed funds rates/liquidity/economic health and asset pricing for a trinket.

I think you’re forgetting a key part of the analysis - that watches as “investments” was the flavor of the month so to speak during COVID. But things fall out of fashion, and it’s becoming ever more apparent that flippers are getting squeezed out. So the demand is not linear. Once we get to a point where folks realize they’re losing money out the door. And we’re getting closer to that every day.
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Old 20 January 2024, 03:41 AM   #15
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Erm is this a genuine question
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Old 20 January 2024, 04:18 AM   #16
Ceriano
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Erm is this a genuine question
It's a watch forum so any general discussion topic is valid as far as I'm concerned :)
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Old 20 January 2024, 10:06 AM   #17
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It's a watch forum so any general discussion topic is valid as far as I'm concerned :)
It's a little how long is this string in my bag you can't see. Kind of question
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Old 20 January 2024, 10:19 AM   #18
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It's a watch forum so any general discussion topic is valid as far as I'm concerned :)
Seconded ..l
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Old 20 January 2024, 04:02 AM   #19
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Model dependent, imo. I think the more "recent" (2000s era) 5 digits have some more room to fall. There were too many people that purchased these during the boom years because they couldn't obtain/afford the 6 digits they really wanted OR thinking they were investment pieces that would only keep going up. As some of these people start getting the call for a 6 digit or the 6 digit comes down to a price they can afford, they will keep dumping the 5 digits, along with those people that realize it's not an investment.

There's also just a ton of them on the market, not exactly rare watches.

IMO a 16570 Polar should settle down into the 6k range, the black around 5k (mint with papers). 16610 should probably be in the 7-8k range, and the 16710 should come down to 8-9k. I think that would be about the bottom range for these watches.
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Old 20 January 2024, 04:34 AM   #20
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I believe the labor market will continue to soften. Several layoff were announced this week and I believe more are to come. Most F500 are reporting earnings in the next few weeks. The results for those that already reported have been mixed so far which could signal trouble ahead.

I don't believe the price correction will be huge tho, for that to happen Rolex needs to overflow the market with subs, gmt, etc. But heck, what do I know :D
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Old 20 January 2024, 04:37 AM   #21
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NASDAQ closed at all time high yesterday.

We are nowhere near a bottom, of anything.

WoS guidance revision and a 36% drop in share prices yesterday should give you a hint on where things are going to go though...
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Old 20 January 2024, 04:39 AM   #22
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It will drop the day people stop feeding it.
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Old 20 January 2024, 04:46 AM   #23
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I don't think we are close to the bottom. The labor market as already intimated is far from really posting what is going on. Seasonal labor and second jobs skewing whats out there. Layoffs are coming and maybe "they" will let us know we are probably in a recession. The bets that the Fed were going to lower short term rates in March are a little muddled last 2 weeks and that will tell a lot. The 10 yr is up over 4% again. So in all that gobblygook there is a lot going on. Yes many YouTubers are quitting after covid and the insta crowd so yes personally I see more mov't down. But thats just me and what i look at. Daily

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Old 20 January 2024, 11:54 AM   #24
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It will drop the day people stop feeding it.
You are correct but I dont believe that will happen(the feeding ).
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Old 22 January 2024, 01:23 PM   #25
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NASDAQ closed at all time high yesterday.

We are nowhere near a bottom, of anything.

WoS guidance revision and a 36% drop in share prices yesterday should give you a hint on where things are going to go though...

WoS stock hit $18.85, on February 7, 2022.

Currently, at/near 52-week low, in the $4 range.


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Old 20 January 2024, 04:40 AM   #26
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What is the expectation here? Rolex 20% below retail through greys and AD stuffed with watches to buy at will?
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Old 20 January 2024, 05:26 AM   #27
Ceriano
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What is the expectation here? Rolex 20% below retail through greys and AD stuffed with watches to buy at will?
Not for new watches but I do expect the pre-owned prices for most models to be at or below retail.
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Old 20 January 2024, 07:27 AM   #28
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What is the expectation here? Rolex 20% below retail through greys and AD stuffed with watches to buy at will?
I think a realistic expectation is smaller spreads with grey dealers and DJs, OPs, Exp1 and 2 readily available.

Subs 3-4 month wait and the rest still exclusive with 1+ year waits.
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Old 20 January 2024, 11:18 AM   #29
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What is the expectation here? Rolex 20% below retail through greys and AD stuffed with watches to buy at will?

So basically 2015


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Old 6 February 2024, 08:44 PM   #30
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What is the expectation here? Rolex 20% below retail through greys and AD stuffed with watches to buy at will?
Not exactly, but it would be great to just go to an AD and buy the model watch we want without having to wait more than a couple of weeks ! Discounted,.... of course!
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