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Old 10 February 2024, 02:17 AM   #151
PhilAviate
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The watch market will stop going lower when the Chinese economic markets start to recover.
The 2 biggest influences on the market where China and bitcoin.
Bitcoin isn't doing bad, so that leaves China.
China is facing demographic collapse.
That is mathematical fact.
Unless they can magic a bunch of 35 year olds into existence in the next 5 years they are facing a total meltdown of their economy.
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Old 10 February 2024, 02:44 AM   #152
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I think itís a fools errand to predict the future price of any security, product etc. I have heard from three resellers of high end watches that their business has sharply picked up recently. Is that a trend? Who knows?
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Old 10 February 2024, 03:23 AM   #153
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I think itís a fools errand to predict the future price of any security, product etc. I have heard from three resellers of high end watches that their business has sharply picked up recently. Is that a trend? Who knows?
Thatís smoke and mirrors. Look at any of the dealer chats or B2B networks. Prices havenít picked up.
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Old 10 February 2024, 04:40 AM   #154
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Prices still seem pretty steady with grey dealers. I just reviewed pricing for the BLNR and still see pricing around $16-18K.
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Old 10 February 2024, 05:21 AM   #155
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Prices will probably move up slightly ~US tax refund time then drop quite a bit.
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Old 10 February 2024, 12:31 PM   #156
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Thatís smoke and mirrors. Look at any of the dealer chats or B2B networks. Prices havenít picked up.
I did not say prices had picked up- rather that it appears more business is being transacted.
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Old 10 February 2024, 04:53 PM   #157
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I did not say prices had picked up- rather that it appears more business is being transacted.
So heightened demand with a static supply and pricing? Sounds like that defies some basic economic concepts.
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Old 10 February 2024, 05:33 PM   #158
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Increase in demand + static supply means higher prices (2016-2022). As demand starts to taper some due to flipper slowing/less Covid money and when/if Rolex increases production/supply we will most likely see prices adjust down accordingly for preowned and possible discounts for certain models like DJ.
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Old 10 February 2024, 08:11 PM   #159
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When it wants to.
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Old 10 February 2024, 08:28 PM   #160
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Six pages of what use to be deleted. Missing the old days.
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Old 11 February 2024, 12:22 AM   #161
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After market values have become so important to lots of Rolex buyers. If the used prices would fall below MSRP on most models, a lot of new buyers at ADs in my view, would drop out. There needs to be a cost of ownership to restore sanity to the market.
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Old 11 February 2024, 01:37 AM   #162
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Six pages of what use to be deleted. Missing the old days.

I for one appreciate the mods moving such discussions to the watch out forum rather than deleting it.

It's part of the watch discussions and discourse. If you don't like it done read it / comment on it. AND it doesn't clog up the main Rolex forum

Win win in my book
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Old 11 February 2024, 02:46 AM   #163
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Six pages of what use to be deleted. Missing the old days.
And yet it would have been so easy to avoid this self-inflicted infringement upon your time.
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Old 11 February 2024, 04:38 AM   #164
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Until grey and secondhand dealers decide to let pieces go for less than they paid for them, you will continue to see higher prices.
A lot of the prices are inflated because watch dealers trade amongst themselves, stating that the watch is sold for X dollars (inflated price) when in fact it was only sold to another dealer in order to move inventory. Most likely that dealer will pass the watch to another dealer, showing that it too was sold at an inflated price. Unless we know that any of these watches were sold to end users, this game will continue.
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Old 11 February 2024, 04:57 AM   #165
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Modern 6 digit watches are selling and moving still, that includes from secondary sellers to end consumer not just B2B. I’m hunting for a couple references and watching the market and they are selling and moving, maybe not as fast as a year ago but they’re a moving for sure.
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Old 11 February 2024, 08:12 AM   #166
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I think the watch market is bottoming. Various prices are down 40-60% from the highs and just above pre covid prices. If you draw a trend line over the last 6-7 years, prices are probably where they should be in a still popular market.

Can prices go down another 10-20%? Maybe, but you will most likely never be lucky enough to buy at the absolute bottom. Buying near the bottom is pretty good in my book.

If you see something you like that was 40k before covid, 100k at the top and 50k now... it's time to buy. Could it go to 40-45k, again who knows, but it's a heck of a buy at 50.

Same goes for a watch that was 10k, went to 18k, now you can buy for 13. Time to buy if you love the watch.
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Old 11 February 2024, 11:26 AM   #167
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I think the watch market is bottoming. Various prices are down 40-60% from the highs and just above pre covid prices. If you draw a trend line over the last 6-7 years, prices are probably where they should be in a still popular market.

Can prices go down another 10-20%? Maybe, but you will most likely never be lucky enough to buy at the absolute bottom. Buying near the bottom is pretty good in my book.

If you see something you like that was 40k before covid, 100k at the top and 50k now... it's time to buy. Could it go to 40-45k, again who knows, but it's a heck of a buy at 50.

Same goes for a watch that was 10k, went to 18k, now you can buy for 13. Time to buy if you love the watch.

Iíve done just that with multiple pieces but I have no illusions that itís a sure thing. If the bottom were to fall out of the stock market or economy at large we could go much much lower. I donít care. Thereís a lot out there at prices I can stomach.
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Old 11 February 2024, 01:46 PM   #168
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Originally Posted by TunaTuna View Post
I think the watch market is bottoming. Various prices are down 40-60% from the highs and just above pre covid prices. If you draw a trend line over the last 6-7 years, prices are probably where they should be in a still popular market.

Can prices go down another 10-20%? Maybe, but you will most likely never be lucky enough to buy at the absolute bottom. Buying near the bottom is pretty good in my book.

If you see something you like that was 40k before covid, 100k at the top and 50k now... it's time to buy. Could it go to 40-45k, again who knows, but it's a heck of a buy at 50.

Same goes for a watch that was 10k, went to 18k, now you can buy for 13. Time to buy if you love the watch.
Itís always time to buy if you really love the watch. But I agree with your post.
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Old 11 February 2024, 02:33 PM   #169
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After market values have become so important to lots of Rolex buyers. If the used prices would fall below MSRP on most models, a lot of new buyers at ADs in my view, would drop out. There needs to be a cost of ownership to restore sanity to the market.
most Rolex models are at or below retail on the secondary market, especially the precious metal models. The only ones commanding any premium are the daytona, GMT (pepsi, sprite, batman), sub (barely 10%), skydweller (green or blue dial).

Sea Dwellers, gold subs, gold day dates, yacht masters, deep sea, explorers, gold sky dwellers are all below retail.
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Old 13 February 2024, 09:05 AM   #170
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Want to know what the true value of your watch is? Try to sell it to multiple dealers and see what they'll pay.

Don't bother at looking at "asking" prices.
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Old 13 February 2024, 08:55 PM   #171
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Want to know what the true value of your watch is? Try to sell it to multiple dealers and see what they'll pay.

Don't bother at looking at "asking" prices.
The true value of my watch (to me) is the pleasure of owning, and wearing, such a finely engineered (mass produced, albeit) piece of machinery in this age of iPhones, Apple Watches, etc, etc. My daily wear is a 116710BLNR that I routinely bang against pistons, handlebars and frames and daily submerge multiple times in a tank of mineral spirits to degrease engine parts. The fact that it just keeps going and going makes me happy. When I want to get "fancy" I give it a good washing in dish soap and head out on the town.
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Old 19 February 2024, 11:27 PM   #172
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As long as DSW and Than and other greys are selling watches at the prices they are advertising then their prices are ďrealĒ.
Are they really selling at advertised prices?
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Old 20 February 2024, 01:05 AM   #173
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Prices will bottom fall of 2025 where they will stay permanently

The peak we saw in 2022 will stand for decades to come
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Old 21 February 2024, 04:02 AM   #174
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Want to know what the true value of your watch is? Try to sell it to multiple dealers and see what they'll pay.

Don't bother at looking at "asking" prices.
Right. Actual selling price ( we'll never know) is the real indicator.

Reducing "asking" prices is a signal of market weakness that sellers dont want to flash.

Decline in asking prices will lag decline in actual selling prices IMHO
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Old 21 February 2024, 04:33 PM   #175
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Right. Actual selling price ( we'll never know) is the real indicator.

Reducing "asking" prices is a signal of market weakness that sellers dont want to flash.

Decline in asking prices will lag decline in actual selling prices IMHO
This. Agree thatís the best litmus test.

MODA is the most liquid watch market out there, so if something isnít moving there, itís blatantly mispriced by definition.

15500st fullset just went for $30.5k at auction there (if you even believe that itís not a shill bid). Thatís literally retail price in CA
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Old 21 February 2024, 10:08 PM   #176
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This. Agree that’s the best litmus test.

MODA is the most liquid watch market out there, so if something isn’t moving there, it’s blatantly mispriced by definition.

15500st fullset just went for $30.5k at auction there (if you even believe that it’s not a shill bid). That’s literally retail price in CA
Will retail drop? AP has a history of quickly increasing retail during good times, and just as quickly reducing retail during slower times. Wasn’t the 15500 only 18k retail at the start of 2020? The last published retail price of the 15400 was $17,800. I’m pretty sure the 15500 started at 18K. That’s a hell of a lot of gauging during COVID, and plenty of room for reduction while staying profitable. Not saying they are there yet, but it’s coming.
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Old 22 February 2024, 01:32 AM   #177
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Will retail drop? AP has a history of quickly increasing retail during good times, and just as quickly reducing retail during slower times. Wasn’t the 15500 only 18k retail at the start of 2020? The last published retail price of the 15400 was $17,800. I’m pretty sure the 15500 started at 18K. That’s a hell of a lot of gauging during COVID, and plenty of room for reduction while staying profitable. Not saying they are there yet, but it’s coming.
I really hope so. The price increases have been crazy.
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Old 22 February 2024, 08:09 AM   #178
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Will retail drop? AP has a history of quickly increasing retail during good times, and just as quickly reducing retail during slower times. Wasnít the 15500 only 18k retail at the start of 2020? The last published retail price of the 15400 was $17,800. Iím pretty sure the 15500 started at 18K. Thatís a hell of a lot of gauging during COVID, and plenty of room for reduction while staying profitable. Not saying they are there yet, but itís coming.
I paid 20k with tax at the boutique for my blue 15500st in 2019, so yea around 18k was the retail price
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Old 22 February 2024, 08:13 AM   #179
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This. Agree thatís the best litmus test.

MODA is the most liquid watch market out there, so if something isnít moving there, itís blatantly mispriced by definition.

15500st fullset just went for $30.5k at auction there (if you even believe that itís not a shill bid). Thatís literally retail price in CA
Don't forget, 90% of the transactions on Moda are dealer to dealer. That 30.5k watch would then be retailed at 36k, and probably after a light service and polish. Moda is a good measure of the wholesale market, not the retail market.
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Old 22 February 2024, 08:30 AM   #180
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Don't forget, 90% of the transactions on Moda are dealer to dealer. That 30.5k watch would then be retailed at 36k, and probably after a light service and polish. Moda is a good measure of the wholesale market, not the retail market.
No. Look at this black dial that’s been sitting at Nashville watch. Even more desirable than the white.https://nashvillewatch.com/product/a...-box-papers-2/

Issue is that what you are quoting as market prices aren’t moving. What is the true market clearing price is the rate at which buyer and seller are willing to transact. Sure, Moda skews more towards wholesale but frankly, it’s becoming more of a retail channel and people are more privy to it. Competitive dealers will price Within 10% of what is transacting at Moda.
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