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Old 22 February 2024, 12:03 PM   #181
TunaTuna
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No. Look at this black dial thatís been sitting at Nashville watch. Even more desirable than the white.https://nashvillewatch.com/product/a...-box-papers-2/

Issue is that what you are quoting as market prices arenít moving. What is the true market clearing price is the rate at which buyer and seller are willing to transact. Sure, Moda skews more towards wholesale but frankly, itís becoming more of a retail channel and people are more privy to it. Competitive dealers will price Within 10% of what is transacting at Moda.
Chase is buying at Moda prices and has to mark up to sell. His prices are pretty good
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Old 22 February 2024, 04:59 PM   #182
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Chase is buying at Moda prices and has to mark up to sell. His prices are pretty good
Agreed. That 15500 for example is one of the best prices Iíve seen outside of Moda/dealer chats but still isnít moving. Makes you wonder what the true market clearing price is
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Old 23 February 2024, 02:53 AM   #183
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Agreed. That 15500 for example is one of the best prices Iíve seen outside of Moda/dealer chats but still isnít moving. Makes you wonder what the true market clearing price is
It is certainly interesting what is going on. It does seem like things are very slow, however Nashville keeps updating his sold section every day with several watches.

And European Watch has new sold and pending pieces every day too. Their turn around on Patek is incredible, even at their high prices
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Old 23 February 2024, 05:30 AM   #184
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It is certainly interesting what is going on. It does seem like things are very slow, however Nashville keeps updating his sold section every day with several watches.

And European Watch has new sold and pending pieces every day too. Their turn around on Patek is incredible, even at their high prices
You know, sold listings can be manipulated to encourage potential buyers. Itís common in all industries, even in mine, and itís something I may have done yesterday.
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Old 23 February 2024, 07:14 AM   #185
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Agreed. That 15500 for example is one of the best prices Iíve seen outside of Moda/dealer chats but still isnít moving. Makes you wonder what the true market clearing price is
Easy to work out true values, and where values are heading.

Simply ring round all the Greys and ask what they will offer for your watches, and repeat monthly.
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Old 23 February 2024, 08:02 AM   #186
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Easy to work out true values, and where values are heading.

Simply ring round all the Greys and ask what they will offer for your watches, and repeat monthly.
Exactly. AP on particular is taking a bath.
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Old 23 February 2024, 12:14 PM   #187
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Secondary market will bottom out when people stop buying from them.
I personally don't care about the resale price as I am not going to flip the watches I purchase from the AD/boutique.
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Old 23 February 2024, 07:07 PM   #188
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At the earliest the secondary market will (have) bottom(ed) out when mint 15202ST go below their last retail.
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Old 24 February 2024, 12:21 AM   #189
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You know, sold listings can be manipulated to encourage potential buyers. Itís common in all industries, even in mine, and itís something I may have done yesterday.
Yeah, there is a seller here on TRF that seemingly 'sells' an identical watch for their asking price RIGHT before listing a watch! And it is never one that has been listed here a while, they just list a new 'sold' listing right next to it.
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Old 24 February 2024, 08:59 AM   #190
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So if I'm reading you all correctly...

You think the decline will be over when we are back to 2014 where you could walk in and get a Sub or Royal Oak at the AD no problem, and the smart people were getting discounts or buying pre owned at 30% off?
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Old 24 February 2024, 10:15 AM   #191
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My guess is a return to 2018 levels. The COVID free money idiocy is hopefully gone forever.
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Old 24 February 2024, 12:48 PM   #192
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It will be further falling over the next 6 months I predict

1. Interest (bonds etc) is actually attractive for a change, so the opportunity cost is higher than free money with no yield outside of uncertain stock markets
2. Buyers craze has waned and now the herd moves on to the "let's wait" mode because they've seen prices fall already - never underestimate momentum
3. Housing market is frozen - prices are still high but new mortgages are super expensive
4. More attractive "other ventures" (i.e. travel is open, international / air travel is back to normal)
5. Crypto is making a comeback but not at the same crazy levels as before
6. Manufacturers got super greedy with prices over the past 3-4years. A RO at $18k is interesting, a RO at $27k 4 years later is a big much (same with Patek, Rolex etc)... not even discussing the more interesting pieces, PM pieces etc
7. AD shenanigans have been a turn-off to say the least. Loyalty swings both ways - after treating your existing customers like garbage, who is knocking down the door to buy the 34mm TT datejusts now?
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Old 24 February 2024, 06:17 PM   #193
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My guess is a return to 2018 levels. The COVID free money idiocy is hopefully gone forever.
Agree. Reversion to the historical mean/trendline, excluding COVID craziness
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Old 24 February 2024, 07:32 PM   #194
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The SS Daytona prices are raising. Slowly, but surely.
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Old 24 February 2024, 09:52 PM   #195
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My guess is a return to 2018 levels. The COVID free money idiocy is hopefully gone forever.
I am in the back to 2018 camp as well, not early 2021 but also not 2014.

Some of the formerly hottest watches such as 15202 or 5711 have a long way to go. My guess is another 30-50% after having already dropped 50% from the 2022 peak. I don't expect this to play out in the next 6 months but rather a slow bleeding for another 1.5 years minimum and possibly longer.
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Old 25 February 2024, 05:10 AM   #196
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Good points guys.

I think most of the decline has happened already, but I don't think we will see prices increase for a while
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Old 25 February 2024, 10:07 AM   #197
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I am in the back to 2018 camp as well, not early 2021 but also not 2014.

Some of the formerly hottest watches such as 15202 or 5711 have a long way to go. My guess is another 30-50% after having already dropped 50% from the 2022 peak. I don't expect this to play out in the next 6 months but rather a slow bleeding for another 1.5 years minimum and possibly longer.
I think youíre right about 2018. But I also think the bleeding will be faster. Once economic fundamentals get stronger, itíll work against the softening of the market (to a degree). Economic health isnít a 1:1 correlation to luxury, Veblen good.

I think where prices end up is the easier question. When they will actually stabilize is a bit difficult. But frankly I think weíll be there by EOY.
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Old 25 February 2024, 03:22 PM   #198
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Market has bottomed. At least for the short term
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Old 27 February 2024, 07:28 AM   #199
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So if I'm reading you all correctly...

You think the decline will be over when we are back to 2014 where you could walk in and get a Sub or Royal Oak at the AD no problem, and the smart people were getting discounts or buying pre owned at 30% off?
Not back to 2014 prices, but back to the 2015-2019 trend line + a bump for inflation, which means prices will still be higher today vs pre-covid.

But I agree we aren't very far from normalization at this point. Most rolex models are trading for about retail, with most precious model and TT pieces at or below retail. The exception remains the daytona, pepsi, sprite etc.

Most 43mm AP Offshores have corrected below retail, and the 42s are pretty much back to 2020 prices. The new ROs are at a reasonable premium nowadays.

Almost all the Patek models (except Nautilus & Aquanaut) are at or well below retail. For example I just looking at the 5205g and it's 15K below retail. Folks with purchase history are getting offered brand new Aquanauts at retail by their ADs without even asking. Nautilus on bracelet is standing strong (but down significantly from ridiculous peak), and will be the last General to fall.
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Old 4 March 2024, 02:22 PM   #200
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What do you all think would be the watch to buy if available at your local Rolex AD? Thank you!
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Old 4 March 2024, 02:24 PM   #201
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What do you all think would be the watch to buy if available at your local Rolex AD? Thank you!

The watch that brings you joy.
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Old 15 March 2024, 01:51 AM   #202
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And there is one thread left
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Old 15 March 2024, 02:31 AM   #203
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And there is one thread left

Explain
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Old 15 March 2024, 11:52 PM   #204
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Old 16 March 2024, 01:03 PM   #205
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That one's still sitting there, pricing is way too high. Pieces cheaper than that have been getting bumped since February. One went for $26k today, full set minus the card.
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Old 16 March 2024, 01:30 PM   #206
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Watch market bottomed out last Tuesday


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Old 9 April 2024, 12:39 PM   #207
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All the BLROs are currently coming out of the woodwork on MODA as it's clear it's not being discontinued. Lots of auctions and price reductions from the current run-up nonsense. Laughable.
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Old 18 April 2024, 06:09 AM   #208
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I'm a buyer when you can get a 228238 at or below retail
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Old 18 April 2024, 09:38 AM   #209
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Full set minus white hang tag 116710 BLNR dated 2020 just sold on Moda for 10,600.
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Old 18 April 2024, 12:54 PM   #210
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Full set minus white hang tag 116710 BLNR dated 2020 just sold on Moda for 10,600.
You love to see it!
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