Anyone thinks that AP grey market prices will only keep going up?

[maruchan22]

I think this is driven by the rolex demand. Their new green bezel submariner is now selling for 24k which is ridiculous. I can see that the RO line will keep going up.

[HMHM]

For normal people AP is a bit of a foreign territory for them. Rolex remains the most recognisable and accessible watch brand for people but as you pointed out that the new Kermit is going for +/- 25k then AP becomes an interesting preposition. Limited production numbers of AP compared to Rolex and higher quality of finishing will start to draw more watch enthusiasts to opt for AP when the price difference between an AP 15500 and sub or Daytona is approximately 2-3k as advertised on DavidSW.

[maruchan22]

Originally Posted by HMHM

For normal people AP is a bit of a foreign territory for them. Rolex remains the most recognisable and accessible watch brand for people but as you pointed out that the new Kermit is going for +/- 25k then AP becomes an interesting preposition. Limited production numbers of AP compared to Rolex and higher quality of finishing will start to draw more watch enthusiasts to opt for AP when the price difference between an AP 15500 and sub or Daytona is approximately 2-3k as advertised on DavidSW.

The rolex prices are really ridiculous, it is not reasonable that rolex is at the same price level as AP. AP prices at grey will keep going up

[cascavel]

Anyone thinks they won't?

[macrowatch]

If Rolex deflated than AP deflates. Raising tide raises all boats. Look at how many posts with people coming into AP after locking in their Rolex profit into AP Retail price. If someone bought an early Hulk, wore for many years and now sold for 20k USD, I think many would be tempted at the switch into SS RO, just economically speaking.

[emtee]

I’d love it if my BLNR rose in price enough to trade it for a Royal Oak!

I would do it in a heartbeat

[Benzsiam]

The difference in price between Rolex and AP is still a lots. You have to compare MSRP to MSRP, not Gray market price of Rolex to MSRP of AP.

All the price of luxury watches go up because of value of USD go down and the gold price go up.

[RLXSRGN]

I believe they will continue to rise (grey market prices). I also strongly believe that gold piece prices (msrp) will rise by 20% within the next 3-6 months due to gold price. This goes for Rolex and AP as well.

I also just recently caught the AP bug. Looking back at things, I realize that if I had more exposure to the royal oak (whether seeing it in everyday life or at the boutique) I would’ve been less likely to purchase a Rolex.

Rolex makes amazing watches with a heavy emphasis on them being tool watches. AP makes watches (royal oak specifically) that feel like Jewelery. Just a totally different type of watch.

[supernova]

I also think AP prices will rise more and agree it is partly driven my Rolex SS prices too.

I for one am one of those that never really considered AP as was generally out of my budget but given the price of Rolex SS pieces such as Daytona etc. it pushed me to add that extra few k for a SS RO (I even had to pay 10% premium) when I was ready to buy a new piece.

The RO definitely feel more of a 20k+ watch than a Hulk or Daytona (well since the retail of RO is 20k!). I just cannot justify paying 20k+ for even a Daytona.

I don't think I will buy another SS Rolex at current market prices, or more even.

[RLXSRGN]

One limiting factor is the relative scarcity of royal oaks... people need to see them to want them... AP tightening up supply by closing ADs and moving to boutiques has been good but it may also hurt in that many watch lovers may never have the love at first sight moment since they never see them in the flesh.

[Nikrnic]

I bought a new Vacheron Constantin Overseas 4500v for 10k less than the asking price of many Rolex Subs. VCs are starting to catch on now but nothing like APs who by cutting production will certainly keep prices rising.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[HMHM]

Originally Posted by Benzsiam

The difference in price between Rolex and AP is still a lots. You have to compare MSRP to MSRP, not Gray market price of Rolex to MSRP of AP.

All the price of luxury watches go up because of value of USD go down and the gold price go up.

Sure the difference between Rolex and AP @ MSRP is still significant but that's because they are different in terms of finishing and quality. But grey prices of Rolex and AP are quite close to each other. There is a white dial Rolex Daytona that's retailing on DavidSW for 28k USD and there is also a white dial AP 15500ST that is going for 31k USD.

Would you rather pay for a Daytona that can be bought at MSRP (hypothetically) for 13k USD @ 28k USD from DavidSW or buy a 15500ST for 31k SUD (retail +/-24k USD?)

That is why more people are learning about AP due to the SS Rolex shortage and are starting to purchase RO because it offers greater value and quality.

[chiscott_29]

I trust AP a heckuva lot more than I do Rolex in terms of keeping production in check, which is one of the key factors of secondary prices.

My view is this...As long as there are not major underlying macroeconomic factors that impact the middle and upper ends of the economy, watch prices will continue to stay strong and will rise in the same sense as most markets would with strong fundamentals and demand. Adding to this is practically uninhibited ability for the most popular manufactures to raise MSRPs which provides a solid foundation.

I've said this before on here. Watches have been established as a bonafide market. Things will NEVER go back to the way they were in 2015/2016. This will work both ways though. When the next negative economic event occurs, watches that have rocketed in value (I'm looking at you, Rolex SS sports models) will get crushed much like an overvalued stock does. And then the cycle will repeat itself...

[SMD]

Glad to see all these fresh faces in the AP forum for all the right reasons....

[illiguy]

Yes.

[inadeje]

I’d say its pretty insane how much my 26331ST has increased in value since I bought it for retail

[Tanuki]

Originally Posted by inadeje

I’d say its pretty insane how much my 26331ST has increased in value since I bought it for retail

I unfortunately think it won’t last because it cannot. Everyone has pent up emotions and need for an outlet. Once the world gets back to normal there will be a lot of other things to spend money on like travel, eating out, entertainment, new cars and home improvements. Right now all those things are on the back burner so shopping from home and watches is a safe quick fix. Just my 2 cents.

[chiscott_29]

Originally Posted by inadeje

I’d say its pretty insane how much my 26331ST has increased in value since I bought it for retail

Get a quote to sell it. It’ll be around $28/$29k at the top end. C24 prices are grossly inflated.

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by HMHM

Sure the difference between Rolex and AP @ MSRP is still significant but that's because they are different in terms of finishing and quality. But grey prices of Rolex and AP are quite close to each other. There is a white dial Rolex Daytona that's retailing on DavidSW for 28k USD and there is also a white dial AP 15500ST that is going for 31k USD.

Would you rather pay for a Daytona that can be bought at MSRP (hypothetically) for 13k USD @ 28k USD from DavidSW or buy a 15500ST for 31k SUD (retail +/-24k USD?)

That is why more people are learning about AP due to the SS Rolex shortage and are starting to purchase RO because it offers greater value and quality.

+1

Also, getting RO or ROC at list price is still feasible as first time buyer.

[jschmidtdmd]

I do......the efforts to control the market are as strong as ever.

My issue is I don't know how they do it at 50,000 watches.

At 5k RM, ALS, FPJ can do it.

I don't know how it works at 50k.

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by jschmidtdmd

I do......the efforts to control the market are as strong as ever.

My issue is I don't know how they do it at 50,000 watches.

At 5k RM, ALS, FPJ can do it.

I don't know how it works at 50k.

Remember, only the 10k RO (guessing on 41 and 38 size RO production number).

[golfsc]

I'm still amazed that a few years ago you could buy a SS RO at 20% below MSRP and now they are commanding such a premium.

Let's face it guys part of the appeal of these SS watches is the exclusivity.
No one wanted a green Sub a few years ago. Rolex makes them inaccessible and now they go for an insane amount. Patek figured this out, so did Rolex, and now AP. These watch companies are never going back. Not only do they force everyone to pay MSRP for watches we used to get at a discount, but they are also getting buyers to buy less desirable watches in hopes of getting a purchase history with the AD.

This is such a crazy time. I was at a Rolex AD at a jewelry story and he said business is booming. His thought was that with people not traveling, not eating out, and saving on entertainment, there is a lot of disposable income available.
Imagine what you can buy with that money from your canceled trip to Europe.

[impactplayer]

I hope not as I stopped by my local AP boutique and they were not interested in selling me any stainless steel version of the RO or ROC unless I had a strong relationship with them first, meaning buy one of our Code 11:59s before we'll even consider you. It was pretty off-putting.

[mjm944]

I recently bought the RO 15500ST with a black dial...the finish is amazing and the bracelet is a work of art..I also have Rolex and Cartier watches ,but AP is another level..

[illiguy]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

Remember, only the 10k RO (guessing on 41 and 38 size RO production number).

Anyone have an estimate on how many Jumbos - 15202ST - are produced each year?

[speedfighter]

Originally Posted by impactplayer

I hope not as I stopped by my local AP boutique and they were not interested in selling me any stainless steel version of the RO or ROC unless I had a strong relationship with them first, meaning buy one of our Code 11:59s before we'll even consider you. It was pretty off-putting.

Sorry no watch is worth the brown nosing-too many other good stuff out there. Screwed up world where you have to beg to give them money.

[impactplayer]

Originally Posted by speedfighter

Sorry no watch is worth the brown nosing-too many other good stuff out there. Screwed up world where you have to beg to give them money.

Totally agreed. I made clear that I was an enthusiast and loved the brand and saw the SS watches as a great entry point with a goal of upgrading to a precious metal watch in a few years. They told me that, with AP, it's actually flipped - you should buy the precious metal first to get the SS. Or I could get a Code 11:59. I told them that I'd be interested in buying a SS for me and for my SO, and they more or less told me it was still impossible because they have ten people asking for the SS watches.

It was just disheartening as a fan to see that sort of gatekeeping.

[eskiserkan]

Originally Posted by illiguy

Anyone have an estimate on how many Jumbos - 15202ST - are produced each year?

Less than 1000

[Stevie_Goodlife]

I suppose if economics is at play and the demand side of the equation has changed substantially (newly interested buyers, previously Rolex) then yes prices can continue increasing.

Also remember there is a limited number of APs actually being bought and sold (many keep them long term; eg. save them for their kids).

When the speculators or hypebeast buyers appear and continue bidding up prices of a limited quantities of available "traded" watches, this is no different than other markets.

For full disclosure I am an AP RO owner

[dh1]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

Also, getting RO or ROC at list price is still feasible as first time buyer.

Which RO is feasible to get at list for a first time buyer?

All of the boutiques say you need to buy a bunch of watches that aren't in high demand (e.g. diamond bedazzled ones) before they will sell you the ones that have more wide aesthetic appeal.