What happened to the Nautilus market last week?

[qrc36]

Originally Posted by pam66

hongkong protests seem also rather disruptive for the watch sales

Yup. Loads of inventory especially the AD on the Kowloon side (Tsim Sha Tsui). I visited my AD last week and we joked that we have never seen so many watches on display in the last 2 years.

Tourists from China aren't coming in to buy watches. Locals are fearing a plunge in the stock market (lots of rumors here that the US stock market is going to burst soon...)

But don't get your hopes up about getting a 5711 / 5712 / 5164 / 5167 as the distributor has the final say here, not the AD.

[wisguy]

Funny how there are endless threads on the subject.

There is probably more hype to the prices than the pieces...

[tng11]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Cracks me up reading the patekaholic comments how many people are confident prices will never fall and it’s just a new paradigm.

The speed at which the buyer pool for over retail Patek’s and Rolex will dry up in a broader financial pull back will be astounding.

People who think the greys will just hold the inventory are nuts. They make their cake being a good middleman not holding for appreciation. They will sell at market and buy at market eating the spread like always.

+1

There's so many players in the grey market right now, not all of them have the strongest hands. Once a few start undercutting each other, then there'll be a mass run for the exits.

[Fat_ninja]

Tourists from China aren't coming in to buy watches. Locals are fearing a plunge in the stock market (lots of rumors here that the US stock market is going to burst soon...)
.

And what happens when it doesn’t. Prices spike

[AK797]

Chronext prices for Nauts and Aquas or the Nauti-nauties remain unchanged from a couple of weeks ago, still highest in the world.

[jschmidtdmd]

I dont think the asks have changed, I think the bids have. Meaning grey dealers aren't buying them up at the same prices they were.

[Xerxes77]

Originally Posted by RHIII

Because people are realizing that they’re not worth 250% markup maybe??

The prices are absolutely ridiculous. And a $75k 5711 purchase should come with a mental health exam.


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Because of this....

[raclaims]

I believe the prices have gotten holders to think about becoming sellers...so more inventory hits...prices stabilize...until fewer people start selling.

We shall see.

[psv]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

Summertime sadness - just like wall street. Sell in May and go away.

I see some softness and stabilization for 1-2 months and then we'll see.

I see resistance at $65k and $70k for the 5711a, and I also see resistance at $50k for the 5164a.

Precious metal has potential to fall.

This. Then brace for larger sell-off, aka correction, followed by a lowering of interest rates because there is an election year coming.

[chmhill]

I called a local luxury watch store today. They still sell 5712 at $101,000.

[GoingPlaces]

I think that they have probably found the ceiling. Not much more movement shy of a world event. Perhaps a slight trickle down but I wouldn't expect anything significant.

[ts3]

Nerve-wracking thread... LOL

On the plus side the 5711 may fall back to where I'll be comfortably wearing it wherever I go and whatever I do which hasn't been exactly the case since I got it from the AD not too long ago.

[V25V]

Originally Posted by ts3

Nerve-wracking thread... LOL

On the plus side the 5711 may fall back to where I'll be comfortably wearing it wherever I go and whatever I do which hasn't been exactly the case since I got it from the AD not too long ago.

I'll never understand this logic. If you are that scared to wear it, because of the value it has at the moment, sell it. Then buy it back once things cool off, whenever that is.... but why keep it locked up in your home if you aren't going to enjoy it?


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[MadSpaniard]

I'll admit I like the Nautilus 5711/1A. It's a classic sports watch, versatile, good looking, practical, etc.

But regarding the Nautilus, I try to separate intrinsic value from speculative asset value. When I look at it that way, I just can't come anywhere near justifying the current $60-70k (or higher) trading price being seen out there. The only way I can somewhat rationalize it is if I view it as a financial/speculative market asset, rather than as a piece of horological craftsmanship or artistry.

The list price, as stated by Patek, is around $30k. That's the value Patek themselves ascribe to it. Patek never intended the 5711 to be a $60-70k piece, and purposely didn't design or construct it as such.

So, one has to wonder: do people like it so much because the Nautilus truly is all that and a bag of horological chips, a sublimely gorgeous and amazing design with exceptionally outstanding craftsmanship? Or do people like it because it happens to command a lot of cash in the secondary market (for a variety of economic forces, speculative or otherwise) and therefore offers recognition and bragging rights (and profit potential)?

I just have to be somewhat skeptical about the underlying factors that are driving up Nautilus trading prices. I mean, the 5711 is admittedly good, even very good, but let's be honest with ourselves: from a purely intrinsic, horological and craftsmanship perspective, does it really qualify as being insanely off-the-charts great?

[Aquaman]

[QUOTE=V25V;9832153]I'll never understand this logic. If you are that scared to wear it, because of the value it has at the moment, sell it. Then buy it back once things cool off, whenever that is.... but why keep it locked up in your home if you aren't going to enjoy it?


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agree wear and enjoy or whats the point

[pam66]

[QUOTE=Aquaman;9832204]

Originally Posted by V25V

I'll never understand this logic. If you are that scared to wear it, because of the value it has at the moment, sell it. Then buy it back once things cool off, whenever that is.... but why keep it locked up in your home if you aren't going to enjoy it?


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agree wear and enjoy or whats the point

it becomes an asset of financial speculation out of fear of scratching it:::)))

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by MadSpaniard

I'll admit I like the Nautilus 5711/1A. It's a classic sports watch, versatile, good looking, practical, etc.

But regarding the Nautilus, I try to separate intrinsic value from speculative asset value. When I look at it that way, I just can't come anywhere near justifying the current $60-70k (or higher) trading price being seen out there. The only way I can somewhat rationalize it is if I view it as a financial/speculative market asset, rather than as a piece of horological craftsmanship or artistry.

The list price, as stated by Patek, is around $30k. That's the value Patek themselves ascribe to it. Patek never intended the 5711 to be a $60-70k piece, and purposely didn't design or construct it as such.

So, one has to wonder: do people like it so much because the Nautilus truly is all that and a bag of horological chips, a sublimely gorgeous and amazing design with exceptionally outstanding craftsmanship? Or do people like it because it happens to command a lot of cash in the secondary market (for a variety of economic forces, speculative or otherwise) and therefore offers recognition and bragging rights (and profit potential)?

I just have to be somewhat skeptical about the underlying factors that are driving up Nautilus trading prices. I mean, the 5711 is admittedly good, even very good, but let's be honest with ourselves: from a purely intrinsic, horological and craftsmanship perspective, does it really qualify as being insanely off-the-charts great?

The 5711 has become a status icon. Before it was just a design icon of sorts for watch geeks seeking borderline overpriced sports watches. 2 years ago most buyers seeking status would buy a rolex or maybe an AP. Then the nautilus hit pop culture hard and it is now basically the birkin bag of watches. It is a way to signal to other fools online and in person that you have money and more than the average rolex wearing LV wallet guy.

[Fat_ninja]

I feel better that my kid is wearing a $95k RM than a $80k nautilus


Just a thought lol

[JR16]

Originally Posted by chmhill

I called a local luxury watch store today. They still sell 5712 at $101,000.

I love my 5712a. It’s my favorite watch. Crown jewel of my collection. Wouldn’t sell it for $50k. Not for $60k. But honestly if someone came up to me and offered $100k? Would be hard to say no to that.


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[GB-man]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

I feel better that my kid is wearing a $95k RM than a $80k nautilus


Just a thought lol

you about to run the same play over at RM and see if it works? My kid loves RM she needs an 11-03 ti

[ts3]

Originally Posted by V25V

I'll never understand this logic. If you are that scared to wear it, because of the value it has at the moment, sell it. Then buy it back once things cool off, whenever that is.... but why keep it locked up in your home if you aren't going to enjoy it?


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There is not much logic involved... I don't keep it locked up but generally I wear my stuff daily irrespective of what I end up doing and I find that more difficult w a 60k watch than a 20k watch regardless of what I paid. I like it and would miss it if I sold it, no point in doing that...

[ts3]

[QUOTE=pam66;9832337]

Originally Posted by Aquaman

it becomes an asset of financial speculation out of fear of scratching it:::)))

Not really, not planning on ever selling...

In terms of scratches I like them both mint and beat up - if anything the in between gives me trouble... May be I should beat em up fast...

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by GB-man

you about to run the same play over at RM and see if it works? My kid loves RM she needs an 11-03 ti

Lol no 11-03


Bought a 029 for the wife and kid to share.

I’ll probably get a 030 when it’s available. Don’t think I can ever get a 11-03 from RM


Maybe I buy an AP for myself

[s.m.b.]

Originally Posted by GB-man

you about to run the same play over at RM and see if it works? My kid loves RM she needs an 11-03 ti

Her memoir...

Daddy Used Me: Tales from the Daughter of Ninja Watch Investor!

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Lol no 11-03


Bought a 029 for the wife and kid to share.

I’ll probably get a 030 when it’s available. Don’t think I can ever get a 11-03 from RM

Work that charm lol worked at patek who knows!

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Work that charm lol worked at patek who knows!

Lol love to try it tho. U never know

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by s.m.b.

Her memoir...

Daddy Used Me: Tales from the Daughter of Ninja Watch Investor!

Lol.

‘Daddy Loves me: My first F U watch...THE choice of the blue or yellow strap’

[AK797]

Originally Posted by jschmidtdmd

I dont think the asks have changed, I think the bids have. Meaning grey dealers aren't buying them up at the same prices they were.

I don't know, bids on hot pieces have been appalling for ages, greys been living it up with buy low, sell high, if they bid even lower now without reducing asks then no one will sell to them just out of a sense of injustice, better to hold or go private.

[s.m.b.]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Lol.

‘Daddy Loves me: My first F U watch...THE choice of the blue or yellow strap’

[ragsk]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

I feel better that my kid is wearing a $95k RM than a $80k nautilus


Just a thought lol

You bought your child an RM? How rich are you fat ninja?????