Should/can we stop calling this a "bubble"?

[Simon.DGV]

Originally Posted by Acquisition40

Love the confidence!

Success is about confidence.
good time piece will eventually outperforms.

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by Russell996

He indicates to the reader where he went in the article - but to be more precise I would suggest Watchfinder and the Burlington arcade and surrounding streets.

So, do you think he meant British Pounds and not U.S. Dollars when he said that it was easy to find a 5711A for 55K or a 116500 for 20K? Those prices would make sense.

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by Watch Expert

If the inflated price is due to genuine demand and also if the model has been discontinued, then price will remain high ; price may drop slightly but not free fall. If the inflated price is because some group of dealers buying in bulk and keep them hoping price will continue to increase ; at the same time the AD still pumping more regular supplies to the market. You will see significant price correction. Will it come down to retail price, for Daytona, Nautilus Aquanaut and Royal Oak. I don’t see that it could.

Especially Rolex Daytona I don’t think it will, considering certain Rolex Daytona Paul Newman model price is getting close to $10million - $15million.
Also I see Patek dress watch ref 1518 may be the second position below the Rolex Daytona. They will be up there for as long as it could be, perhaps forever. Patek Nautilus and Aquanaut price hype is not fully supported by any good ground. It is falling apart as we see it.

Will it be disaster if there is financial crisis? Or will there be crisis? Crisis occur because there is liquidity dry up in the market and people do not trust banks and decide to pull money out of the market at same time ; like Lehman Brother collapse and price of everything plummets.

Today the money supply is not controlled by man, there is artificial intelligence that navigates what amount of liquidity needed to sustain an economy. So I think it is highly unlikely to have major financial crisis.

Money has been loosen by banks, today the liquidity seems to be much more accesible and easy compared to in 2016-2018; We see stock reaching new record height and more people in finance get bigger bonus.

The big problem if the sales of watch model that is concentrated too much in Asia; corona virus will likely to stay in China ; Taiwan; Hong Kong ; Japan and Singapore for the rest of the year till vaccine is found. So watches that are traditionally sought after by rich Asian businessman will suffer price correction.

The Europe, UK Australian and US market in general (housing, stock market, watches) is stable or slightly moving up ; infact in certain watch model (especially Rolex) moving up in price because of the easing in borrowing and growing economy.

Patek market is very limited and people that can afford Patek know that there is not many people can afford to purchase their watch when he decide to resell. It is ok if you buy Patek retail, but if you bought Nautilus 5726 ,5980 ,5711 or 5740 at premium 200% over retail last October, today you can purchase at price 30% cheaper and you may not be able to sell easily even if you want to get out and take 40% loss. But price still 70% -100% over retail.

I have seen many models (Patek Vacheron AP) quoted in Chrono 24 selling for more than certain price say US$50,000 or more when in reality the grey dealers are trying to sell like $35,000 and unable to sell them. But Rolex perform well. I saw dealers that have 7 Rolex sub 3 months ago, last week his store was clean. Only date just left.

Patek sport watches are inflated and only grey dealers in HK and Singapore that holding dozen of them know how far can it come down, not even Thierry Stern know how much stock of Aquanaut and Nautilus are in the hand of grey dealers unsold due to corona virus in China.


I would say Rolex sport is a safe buy even at premium. Patek sport is good buy at retail , but not a good buy at premium. Stay away from Patek sport watches. Patek dress watch leather straps is ok, a healthy buy at grey used market or retail. Patek sport watch at premium involves high risk, you may be drowned.

Richard Mille, I think is going similar direction with Patek sport watches.

Buy used watches if the price is 20% cheaper than retail. (Only exception is Rolex) ; as it will not happen till you die. Rolex demand is genuine , sales are very well spread globally not dependant on one market and price range like Air King ; Milgauss is still very affordable for successful average middle class family. There are also massive speculation going on in Rolex, but the Rolex demand and Rolex production is huge; so the grey market is just a minor impact ; just a small percentage of the overall Rolex sales and would not be to bring a major disaster that able to sink Rolex price.

Very interesting. I appreciate your thoughts.

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by cascavel

So, do you think he meant British Pounds and not U.S. Dollars when he said that it was easy to find a 5711A for 55K or a 116500 for 20K? Those prices would make sense.

I did wonder that when I first read it. The I took the view that if the C24/Grey sticker price was $20k, you could very likely negotiate a sub $20k price.

[Acquisition40]

Originally Posted by Watch Expert

If the inflated price is due to genuine demand and also if the model has been discontinued, then price will remain high ; price may drop slightly but not free fall.
If the inflated price is because some group of dealers buying in bulk and keep them hoping price will continue to increase ; at the same time the AD still pumping more regular supplies to the market. You will see significant price correction. Will it come down to retail price, for Daytona, Nautilus Aquanaut and Royal Oak. I don’t see that it could.

Especially Rolex Daytona I don’t think it will, considering certain Rolex Daytona Paul Newman model price is getting close to $10million - $15million.
Also I see Patek dress watch ref 1518 may be the second position below the Rolex Daytona.
They will be up there for as long as it could be, perhaps forever.
Patek Nautilus and Aquanaut price hype is not fully supported by any good ground. It is falling apart as we see it.

Will it be disaster if there is financial crisis? Or will there be crisis? Crisis occur because there is liquidity dry up in the market and people do not trust banks and decide to pull money out of the market at same time ; like Lehman Brother collapse and price of everything plumets.

Today the money supply is not controlled by man, there is artificial intelligence that navigates what amount of liquidity needed to sustain an economy. So I think it is highly unlikely to have major financial crisis.

Money has been loosen by banks, today the liquidity seems to be much more accesible and easy compared to in 2016-2018; We see stock reaching new record height and more people in finance get bigger bonus.

The big problem if the sales of watch model that is concentrated too much in Asia; corona virus will likely to stay in China ; Taiwan; Hong Kong ; Japan and Singapore for the rest of the year till vaccine is found. So watches that are traditionally sought after by rich Asian businessman will suffer price correction.

The Europe, UK Australian and US market in general (housing, stock market, watches) is stable or slightly moving up ; infact in certain watch model (especially Rolex) moving up in price because of the easing in borrowing and growing economy.

Patek market is very limited and people that can afford Patek know that there is not many people can afford to purchase their watch when he decide to resell. It is ok if you buy Patek retail, but if you bought Nautilus 5726 ,5980 ,5711 or 5740 at premium 200% over retail last October, today you can purchase at price 30% cheaper and you may not be able to sell easily even if you want to get out and take 40% loss. But price still 70% -100% over retail.

I have seen many models (Patek Vacheron AP) quoted in Chrono 24 selling for more than certain price say US$50,000 or more when in reality the grey dealers are trying to sell like $35,000 and unable to sell them. But Rolex perform well. I saw dealers that have 7 Rolex sub 3 months ago, last week his store was clean. Only date just left.

Patek sport watches are inflated and only grey dealers in HK and Singapore that holding dozen of them know how far can it come down, not even Thierry Stern know how much stock of Aquanaut and Nautilus are in the hand of grey dealers unsold due to corona virus in China.


I would say Rolex sport is a safe buy even at premium. Patek sport is good buy at retail , but not a good buy at premium. Stay away from Patek sport watches. Patek dress watch leather straps is ok, a healthy buy at grey used market or retail. Patek sport watch at premium involves high risk, you may be drowned.

Richard Mille, I think is going similar direction with Patek sport watches.

Buy used watches if the price is 20% cheaper than retail. (Only exception is Rolex) ; as it will not happen till you die. Rolex demand is genuine , sales are very well spread globally not dependant on one market and price range like Air King ; Milgauss is still very affordable for successful average middle class family. There are also massive speculation going on in Rolex, but the Rolex demand and Rolex production is
huge; so the grey market is just a minor impact ; just a small percentage of the overall Rolex sales and would not be to bring a major disaster that able to sink Rolex price.

Interesting! Thanks for your thoughts! Do you think the discontinued SS 5711 white dial at current premium (somewhere around $65-68K USD) is also a risk?

[ma.st.]

Enjoying the discourse everyone has contributed, thanks!

My biggest question is: Grey dealers M.O. seems to be to buy in the bell and sell at the tail to get a healthy ROI. Unless we as consumers accept and shift the bell curve continuously higher toward the tail end (2-3 standard deviations) through our behavior how can this be supported unless there is one of two things happening--either the actual sale price is less extreme than the advertised price, for which we don't have reliable data on actual sold prices above retail, or there is a larger population purchasing at those extreme prices than expected to exist under the curve at that point.

As mentioned above we are a small slice of the community and the Rolex market, more than Patek, may be somewhat insulated from disaster given the geographic and economic breadth of Rolex consumers.

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by Watch Expert

If the inflated price is due to genuine demand and also if the model has been discontinued, then price will remain high ; price may drop slightly but not free fall.
If the inflated price is because some group of dealers buying in bulk and keep them hoping price will continue to increase ; at the same time the AD still pumping more regular supplies to the market. You will see significant price correction. Will it come down to retail price, for Daytona, Nautilus Aquanaut and Royal Oak. I don’t see that it could.

Especially Rolex Daytona I don’t think it will, considering certain Rolex Daytona Paul Newman model price is getting close to $10million - $15million.
Also I see Patek dress watch ref 1518 may be the second position below the Rolex Daytona.
They will be up there for as long as it could be, perhaps forever.
Patek Nautilus and Aquanaut price hype is not fully supported by any good ground. It is falling apart as we see it.

Will it be disaster if there is financial crisis? Or will there be crisis? Crisis occur because there is liquidity dry up in the market and people do not trust banks and decide to pull money out of the market at same time ; like Lehman Brother collapse and price of everything plumets.

Today the money supply is not controlled by man, there is artificial intelligence that navigates what amount of liquidity needed to sustain an economy. So I think it is highly unlikely to have major financial crisis.

Money has been loosen by banks, today the liquidity seems to be much more accesible and easy compared to in 2016-2018; We see stock reaching new record height and more people in finance get bigger bonus.

The big problem if the sales of watch model that is concentrated too much in Asia; corona virus will likely to stay in China ; Taiwan; Hong Kong ; Japan and Singapore for the rest of the year till vaccine is found. So watches that are traditionally sought after by rich Asian businessman will suffer price correction.

The Europe, UK Australian and US market in general (housing, stock market, watches) is stable or slightly moving up ; infact in certain watch model (especially Rolex) moving up in price because of the easing in borrowing and growing economy.

Patek market is very limited and people that can afford Patek know that there is not many people can afford to purchase their watch when he decide to resell. It is ok if you buy Patek retail, but if you bought Nautilus 5726 ,5980 ,5711 or 5740 at premium 200% over retail last October, today you can purchase at price 30% cheaper and you may not be able to sell easily even if you want to get out and take 40% loss. But price still 70% -100% over retail.

I have seen many models (Patek Vacheron AP) quoted in Chrono 24 selling for more than certain price say US$50,000 or more when in reality the grey dealers are trying to sell like $35,000 and unable to sell them. But Rolex perform well. I saw dealers that have 7 Rolex sub 3 months ago, last week his store was clean. Only date just left.

Patek sport watches are inflated and only grey dealers in HK and Singapore that holding dozen of them know how far can it come down, not even Thierry Stern know how much stock of Aquanaut and Nautilus are in the hand of grey dealers unsold due to corona virus in China.


I would say Rolex sport is a safe buy even at premium. Patek sport is good buy at retail , but not a good buy at premium. Stay away from Patek sport watches. Patek dress watch leather straps is ok, a healthy buy at grey used market or retail. Patek sport watch at premium involves high risk, you may be drowned.

Richard Mille, I think is going similar direction with Patek sport watches.

Buy used watches if the price is 20% cheaper than retail. (Only exception is Rolex) ; as it will not happen till you die. Rolex demand is genuine , sales are very well spread globally not dependant on one market and price range like Air King ; Milgauss is still very affordable for successful average middle class family. There are also massive speculation going on in Rolex, but the Rolex demand and Rolex production is
huge; so the grey market is just a minor impact ; just a small percentage of the overall Rolex sales and would not be to bring a major disaster that able to sink Rolex price.

You make a lot of good points. I agree Patek steel at 2X MSRP or more is a very risky proposition. But I still think a small premium is fine. At the end of the day, they are expensive but there are not a whole lot of them out there either.

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by cascavel

Unless we as consumers accept and shift the bell curve continuously higher toward the tail end (2-3 standard deviations) through our behavior how can this be supported unless there is one of two things happening--either the actual sale price is less extreme than the advertised price, for which we don't have reliable data on actual sold prices above retail, or there is a larger population purchasing at those extreme prices than expected to exist under the curve at that point

Solid points, and I think the answer is that the sale price has to be less extreme than the advertised price. Why? Because, if there were a large number of buyers willing to pay significant premiums, we would not see the large numbers of "hot" watches currently for sale. On c24 right now, there are: (1) 152 AP15202s; (2) 732 Rolex 116500s; (3) 535 PP 5711s and 200 PP5164s; (4) 369 PP5167s; (5) 368 Rolex 16610LVs; (6) 259 PP5726s... I could go on. I think we'd see fewer watches selling more quickly if there were lots of buyers, and we would not see prices gradually decreasing.

Although, I acknowledge that the C24 numbers above can be skewed in all sorts of ways, e.g., on C24, DavidSW has nine PPs (including an unworn 5164R); on his webpage, he has 14 (and no 5164R); on C24, he has 10 Rolex; on his site, he has well over 100.

[GreenLantern]

Are we, perhaps, overthinking this?

It's an illiquid and small market. Some references have been hyped up by various factors (including social media influencers). Some dealers have jumped on the hype (years ago) and started hoarding. The hoarders control the secondary market.

This has then caused ADs to get a bit worried about flippers (because of the consequences), so they only sell to trusted customers.

It's a bubble if you think it's a bubble based on speculation that values will rise forever and/or remain at an extremely elevated state (>2x MSRP is something I would easily consider speculative for a brand new watch that's not explicitly limited edition).

[ap1]

These are limited pieces. Call the AD to acquire one for proof

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by ap1

These are limited pieces. Call the AD to acquire one for proof

That's correct. Though, if this is in response to my comment above, limited by controlled/throttled production != limited edition.

The White 5711 was produced for years and years and years. That's not Limited Edition.

I explicitly stated limited edition, where limited edition is a fixed total number with the number engraved on the case somewhere.

[martinr]

Something else to think about. Everyone is saying the hard to get pieces are sold to VIP’s and good customers that spend a lot. But don’t those VIP’s and “good customers” already have their 5711’s etc.? So the point is the bubble is basically caused by these watches being a fad and are they going to be desired long term or long term enough to make people willing to pay double msrp? I have my doubts.

[Acquisition40]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

Are we, perhaps, overthinking this?

It's an illiquid and small market. Some references have been hyped up by various factors (including social media influencers). Some dealers have jumped on the hype (years ago) and started hoarding. The hoarders control the secondary market.

This has then caused ADs to get a bit worried about flippers (because of the consequences), so they only sell to trusted customers.

It's a bubble if you think it's a bubble based on speculation that values will rise forever and/or remain at an extremely elevated state (>2x MSRP is something I would easily consider speculative for a brand new watch that's not explicitly limited edition).

What percentage of these high-demand references do you think are being hoarded by the secondary market? And at what percentage does the secondary market gain control?

[Acquisition40]

Originally Posted by martinr

Something else to think about. Everyone is saying the hard to get pieces are sold to VIP’s and good customers that spend a lot. But don’t those VIP’s and “good customers” already have their 5711’s etc.? So the point is the bubble is basically caused by these watches being a fad and are they going to be desired long term or long term enough to make people willing to pay double msrp? I have my doubts.

That's a good point. I think it all comes down to whether or not this is a fad. If people finally discovered that high horology/quality watches that can be worn in summer/water/formal occasions is absolutely the best thing, then maybe it'll stay super long-term. Kind of like Rolex as a brand, as a whole, providing reliable, robust watches or McDonalds in how people discovered cheap, predictable, fast food could be super convenient. Still going strong, and they kind of never turned back--at least for now.

If that's the case, maybe the secondary prices will linger up there or people will spill over to other options (like VC Overseas) and/or the manufacturers will provide other options, like the Odysseus. But in terms of people on "the list" to what the ADs receive ratio, maybe the VIPs have their watches, but I don't know if those who got bit by the bug enough to be ready to drop $10K-$30K (MSRP) on a watch would quit that easy. I mean, who goes into a store and asks to be put on a 7 year wait list? For what other products do people do this?

But maybe this is in fact a fad, and people will see SS sports watches as not as cool as gold dress watches. Though, SS Nautilus and Daytonas are damn good...

[Watch Expert]

Originally Posted by Acquisition40

What percentage of these high-demand references do you think are being hoarded by the secondary market? And at what percentage does the secondary market gain control?

For Rolex Daytona I think 50% of sales goes to grey market flippers
For Nautilus and Aquanaut I think 80% of sales goes to grey market speculators
That is before the Corona Virus Jan 2020

Rolex grey market dealers will likely be able to keep for less than 2 weeks and its gone, but Nautilus or Aquanaut dealers may likely to keep the watch for much longer time average about 1 or 2 months as the buyer are limited.

Previously Patek AD expanded store size and added more store to have more Patek inventories for Chinese buyer ; I saw 2 Patek AD in one shopping mall in Singapore or Hong Kong.
Today with Chinese buyer plummet; Shopping mall is empty, very quiet; like graveyard, I think Patek will experience several AD / grey dealers rejecting or reducing orders. Some AD began downsizing and closing number of stores to avoid overhead and rental high cost ; that may lead to AD bankruptcy.

[Acquisition40]

Since, we’ve been using terms like bell curve, standard deviation, etc., I did a little bit of number crunching to give us a better sense of what we’re referring to.

I took 30 samples of sales prices of the Patek 5711/1A blue dial from roughly the last 6 months or so from Sotheby’s, Phillips, Christies, as well as a few current Chrono24 postings (in this case, FS prices). In USD, sales tax not included. This is only representing purchase price: the price at which a bidder at auction/customer of a grey dealer/or buyer from independent seller has purchased the watch. This does not represent how much you can get for your watch if you sold to to a grey or at auction (that’s a whole separate thing).

If we assume that there have been 5,000 sales transactions existent in the past 6 months, with a confidence level of 90%, that gives us a sample size of 31. If we assume that there were less than 5,000 transactions, this data should be even more solid, since we have a bigger sample size relative to the population.

I’ve rounded the numbers to the nearest 10 for easier reading purposes.

62500, 81250, 77100, 75000, 75000, 67600, 68750, 65800, 66000, 56250, 64250, 78500, 71500, 72000, 70000, 65000, 64500, 72500, 68500, 71950, 75500, 78500, 71250, 65000, 68000, 77650, 69500, 72000, 72000, 68450

Mean is $70,400. Standard deviation is $5540.

This means we can assume that in the last ~6 months, IF there were around 5,000 transactions:

68.3% of the people that have bought a secondary market 5711/1a blue dial has paid $70,400 +/- $5540 (between ~$65K and $75K). within 1 standard dev.
95.0% of the people that have bought a secondary market 5711/1a blue dial has paid $70,400 +/- $11,080 (between ~$59K and $81K). within 2 standard dev.
99.0% of the people that have bought a secondary market 5711/1a blue dial has paid $70,400 +/- $14,400 (between ~$56K and $85K). within 2.6 standard dev.
99.9% of the people that have bought a secondary market 5711/1a blue dial has paid $70,400 +/- $18,300 (between ~$52,100 and $88,700). within 3.3 standard dev.

Didn't go into linking price to condition/completeness of set. This is by no means the most accurate or reliable data and analysis, but a general idea based on what I pulled from the internet. The numbers seem about right, though.

Based on this rough info, I don't know if this kind of stuff is what auction houses or greys use to determine their price range, but the theory is that even if they had put up for sale a 5711/1A blue dial at $85K, there were at least 50 people that bought it at that price point (still assuming 5,000 transactions). So maybe if the grey is super reputable, has good marketing, and the condition of the item is amazing, they put the pricing way up there. Maybe a grey looking to turn over inventory will place it at the middle of the curve at close to $70K.

Anyways, this is the curve we're looking at. There's really no way/reason to combine this with MSRP or produce a chart for MSRP sales because we can't produce a standard deviation model with MSRP (since, they're literally sold at the same price +/- tax or exchange rates, which I won't get into).

The takeaway from this model is that, yes, the auction house/greys can set the price premises as the seller, but the spread within this model ($59K-$81K for 95% of population) indicates that buyers have control, too. If they don't like the $72K price, maybe they try to find another seller or haggle to get to $68K. If they don't want to pay a dime over MSRP, then they don't buy from secondary at all (as indicated by a non-infinite, limited population). Greys have some control, but it's not like the grey can list a 5711/1A that's in excellent condition for $80K when the next website/door over, they have something very similar for $71K--they don't have that kind of control unless they have something else going for them, like reputation.

S

[ap1]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

That's correct. Though, if this is in response to my comment above, limited by controlled/throttled production != limited edition.

The White 5711 was produced for years and years and years. That's not Limited Edition.

I explicitly stated limited edition, where limited edition is a fixed total number with the number engraved on the case somewhere.

Yeah
I find them limited with crazy weights. I have gotten several limited pieces 8 month from release. No such luck with Patek. I see demand > supply and price above MSRP. Don’t really see it changing all that much

[Bubba Kongo]

In general most watch market and luxury handbags such as LV or Hermès that was driven by Chinese demand is slowing down ; not as good as last year ; especially the steel sport luxury watches will be heavily hit.

Other financial market like NY stock market ; property market around the world outside China HK or Singapore is actually picking up steam as government around the world coming up with many stimulus to drive market up.

I see there is a shift in market, less sales probably in Asia but more sales going on in America Australia UK and Europe.

[martinr]

Responding to Acquisition40, I agree there will always be a market for Nautilus, Aquanaut, Daytona and Rolex professional models. But I think the market will revert back to what it was. Walk into a Rolex AD and buy a Submariner or GMT, tell your Patek AD you want a Nautilus or Aquanaut and maybe wait a few months, like that. When I got interested in watches I started with Rolex, then AP, and then bought a 5711 at msrp which was around 24K then. I had the money but still kept thinking to myself hey I just bought a 24K watch I must be crazy. No way would I have paid double that. Then I had every Nautilus and Aquanaut. Got bored and thought they all looked alike, sold everything and got into Panerai. Then I got bored with Panerai and went back to Patek. But not Nautilus or Aquanaut, more complicated watches. It’s a disease I know. I became a WIS. The difference though in my opinion is the Nautilus Aquanaut Rolex fad isn’t making people WIS. It’s one and done and it’s more for show than interest in horology. And that’s why I think the bubble will burst eventually.

[Acquisition40]

Originally Posted by martinr

Responding to Acquisition40, I agree there will always be a market for Nautilus, Aquanaut, Daytona and Rolex professional models. But I think the market will revert back to what it was. Walk into a Rolex AD and buy a Submariner or GMT, tell your Patek AD you want a Nautilus or Aquanaut and maybe wait a few months, like that. When I got interested in watches I started with Rolex, then AP, and then bought a 5711 at msrp which was around 24K then. I had the money but still kept thinking to myself hey I just bought a 24K watch I must be crazy. No way would I have paid double that. Then I had every Nautilus and Aquanaut. Got bored and thought they all looked alike, sold everything and got into Panerai. Then I got bored with Panerai and went back to Patek. But not Nautilus or Aquanaut, more complicated watches. It’s a disease I know. I became a WIS. The difference though in my opinion is the Nautilus Aquanaut Rolex fad isn’t making people WIS. It’s one and done and it’s more for show than interest in horology. And that’s why I think the bubble will burst eventually.

That's a really great way of looking at it--I can totally see how it can be a bubble from that perspective. Thanks for sharing.

I have a few friends who got some of these SS sports watches because of the kind of status they represented. They also felt safe in their purchases that these models would retain their value well. At the same time, it sometimes feels like their interests in watches don't necessarily go beyond these models. Nothing wrong with that, but it does make me wonder if they would've gotten these watches to begin with if it weren't for the craze.

I still think people are either into* (edit) watches or not. Perhaps the a good portion of people paying secondary are not, but then again, who knows?

S

[toucan]

Martin for once I agree 100%, well said.

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by martinr

Responding to Acquisition40, I agree there will always be a market for Nautilus, Aquanaut, Daytona and Rolex professional models. But I think the market will revert back to what it was. Walk into a Rolex AD and buy a Submariner or GMT, tell your Patek AD you want a Nautilus or Aquanaut and maybe wait a few months, like that. When I got interested in watches I started with Rolex, then AP, and then bought a 5711 at msrp which was around 24K then. I had the money but still kept thinking to myself hey I just bought a 24K watch I must be crazy. No way would I have paid double that. Then I had every Nautilus and Aquanaut. Got bored and thought they all looked alike, sold everything and got into Panerai. Then I got bored with Panerai and went back to Patek. But not Nautilus or Aquanaut, more complicated watches. It’s a disease I know. I became a WIS. The difference though in my opinion is the Nautilus Aquanaut Rolex fad isn’t making people WIS. It’s one and done and it’s more for show than interest in horology. And that’s why I think the bubble will burst eventually.

Well said. I think that’s what will drive the prices down, as many who get the hot pieces tire of them quickly and are looking to flip (as their desire was superficial to begin with) and thats one reason the grey market has so many so-called hot pieces.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ma.st.]

Originally Posted by The Argonaut

Well said. I completely agree. I think that’s what will drive the prices down, as many who get the hot pieces tire of them quickly and are looking to flip (as their desire was superficial to begin with) and thats one reason the grey market has so many so-called hot pieces.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Very true. The last in are the first out as they say.

I'll also say in terms of limiting "hot" model sales to (V)VIPs, it can be frustrating to a collector like myself. I have spent my fair share on watches and from a strictly monetary standpoint would be considered a VIP at a single AD...if I spent all of that money at a single AD or on a single brand. My horological interests and therefore my spending dictated that my 2019 watch money went to different brands not all housed at the same AD as well as a few vintage models.

I'm not complaining one bit, it's just interesting that the various ADs I have worked with are not concerned with acquiring my future money and developing me in to their next VIP. I'd be happy to be one long after the hype dies if the door was opened even just a little bit.

It's unfortunate that an air of mistrust exists due to lack of transparency from both buyers and sellers that often gets blamed on the grey market. Wearing a complicated Patek in to a Rolex AD doesn't prove anything or get you any closer to a $13k Daytona. And being put on an indefinite waitlist doesn't inspire me to not spend my money on Lange for example.

[Acquisition40]

Originally Posted by The Argonaut

Well said. I think that’s what will drive the prices down, as many who get the hot pieces tire of them quickly and are looking to flip (as their desire was superficial to begin with) and thats one reason the grey market has so many so-called hot pieces.

So true.

[The Argonaut]

Of interest, I looked up some of the hot watches on C24 (116500, 5167, 5711), and looked only at the U.S. Unsurprisingly, the highest number of watches for sale were sold by ADs in 2019.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by martinr

Responding to Acquisition40, I agree there will always be a market for Nautilus, Aquanaut, Daytona and Rolex professional models. But I think the market will revert back to what it was. Walk into a Rolex AD and buy a Submariner or GMT, tell your Patek AD you want a Nautilus or Aquanaut and maybe wait a few months, like that. When I got interested in watches I started with Rolex, then AP, and then bought a 5711 at msrp which was around 24K then. I had the money but still kept thinking to myself hey I just bought a 24K watch I must be crazy. No way would I have paid double that. Then I had every Nautilus and Aquanaut. Got bored and thought they all looked alike, sold everything and got into Panerai. Then I got bored with Panerai and went back to Patek. But not Nautilus or Aquanaut, more complicated watches. It’s a disease I know. I became a WIS. The difference though in my opinion is the Nautilus Aquanaut Rolex fad isn’t making people WIS. It’s one and done and it’s more for show than interest in horology. And that’s why I think the bubble will burst eventually.

Very well said. My story is very similar, too.

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by ma.st.

It's unfortunate that an air of mistrust exists due to lack of transparency from both buyers and sellers that often gets blamed on the grey market. Wearing a complicated Patek in to a Rolex AD doesn't prove anything or get you any closer to a $13k Daytona. And being put on an indefinite waitlist doesn't inspire me to not spend my money on Lange for example.

If I'm completely honest, if I could have just one watch--just one--it would be a Datograph Up Down. What's truly sad is that for the price of a grey 5711, which is a great watch, one could have an Up Down, which besides being an utterly functional watch, is a bloody horological masterpiece. It's an end game watch. One you have it, you're done. It just shows how pointless much of the hype around the "hot pieces" is. That's why it'll pass for most watches; it's no more than a passing fad.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by The Argonaut

If I'm completely honest, if I could have just one watch--just one--it would be a Datograph Up Down. What's truly sad is that for the price of a grey 5711, which is a great watch, one could have an Up Down, which besides being an utterly functional watch, is a bloody horological masterpiece. It's an end game watch. One you have it, you're done. It just shows how pointless much of the hype around the "hot pieces" is. That's why it'll pass for most watches; it's no more than a passing fad.

Indeed. To be honest, if you look hard enough, you can find a Dato Up/Down for less than the "grey market value" of a 5711 Blue.

And, if you go with a slightly older Dato (no Up/Down) you can get it for slightly above half the price of a grey market 5711 Blue.

It's crazy.

[Acquisition40]

Originally Posted by Watch Expert

For Rolex Daytona I think 50% of sales goes to grey market flippers
For Nautilus and Aquanaut I think 80% of sales goes to grey market speculators
That is before the Corona Virus Jan 2020

Whoa.

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

Indeed. To be honest, if you look hard enough, you can find a Dato Up/Down for less than the "grey market value" of a 5711 Blue.

And, if you go with a slightly older Dato (no Up/Down) you can get it for slightly above half the price of a grey market 5711 Blue.

It's crazy.

Couldnt have said it better myself.