the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by Naples09

FL is easy to understand. They didn't want to shut down during spring break and snowbird season. They need that revenue to survive the rest of the year. Now that spring break ended and most snowbirds left early - time to lock down the state.

Yup. I agree that it is easy to understand the economics behind the decision from a strictly short term money Uber Alles decision making process.

Just like it was easy to understand the economics behind the cruise lines' decisions to try and get another round of cruises in to build reserves to weather the down time. And the list goes on.

But understanding a decision does not make it correct.

Stay safe.

[watchmework]

Originally Posted by directioneng

Do we have any good news from anywhere?

Check this out....it’s a nice break from your regularly scheduled programming and I found it to be pretty refreshing.


https://youtu.be/F5pgG1M_h_U

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by directioneng

Do we have any good news from anywhere?

Yes. This has been a beautiful spring in the North Carolina Foothills.

Forsythia were brilliant. Deciduous magnolia were awesome. And the Redbuds have had their best year ever.

Stay safe.

[Moggo]

Apparently masks now do help, WHO have changed their mind


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[77T]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

Interesting article in the Daily Telegraph:

“This is also the first pre-modern recession since the Second World War. Downturns since the industrial revolution have normally been about monetary policy errors or bubbles going pop. The coronavirus recession is like a war or a crop failure or a natural catastrophe, events that, together with pandemics, have caused the most savage depressions in history.

Drawing on the Bank of England’s Millenium of Macroeconomic Data, Deutsche Bank reminds us that the worst ever recessions were in 1624 (GDP down 25 per cent the year Parliament voted for war against Spain) and 1349 (down 23 per cent during the Black Death). The current downturn – GDP down 6 per cent this year – will only be slightly less severe than those of 1919 and 1921, both connected to war and flu. No “modern” recession has come close. It is also an exceptionally concentrated collapse: the second quarter will be the worst three month period for the economy since records began.

In 1919, those US cities that reopened too soon suffered a worse overall hit to the economy – after the flu returned with a vengeance in a second peak – than those that waited longer in lockdown, according to Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck and Emil Verner.”

I’m not sure where the author got that first sentence. But even in my lifetime we’ve had 4 recessions.



According to the IMF, there have been four global recessions since World War II: 1975, 1982, 1991 and 2009.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[Jim Smyth]

Masks always helped and is why Asia is doing well in terms of infected and deaths. They couldnt advocate masks early on because there wasnt enough for the front line heath care workers and they didnt want people hording them like toilet paper. Now more are becoming available so there ya go. At least thats my take on it.

[Moggo]

Originally Posted by Jim Smyth

Masks always helped and is why Asia is doing well in terms of infected and deaths. They couldnt advocate masks early on because there wasnt enough for the front line heath care workers and they didnt want people hording them like toilet paper. Now more are becoming available so there ya go. At least thats my take on it.

I think you are bang on

Pretty negligent though.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Zakalwe]

Originally Posted by 77T

I’m not sure where the author got that first sentence. But even in my lifetime we’ve had 4 recessions.

According to the IMF, there have been four global recessions since World War II: 1975, 1982, 1991 and 2009.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

I think the operative term is “pre-modern” i.e. a recession not related to monetary policy. I’m not sure it’s an especially useful distinction other than to add a new dimension of hyperbole.

[77T]

Originally Posted by Jim Smyth

Masks always helped and is why Asia is doing well in terms of infected and deaths. They couldnt advocate masks early on because there wasnt enough for the front line heath care workers and they didnt want people hording them like toilet paper. Now more are becoming available so there ya go. At least thats my take on it.

Yes, I agree even a basic mask blocks liquids from sneezes and coughs.

The messaging was confusing but supply/demand did shape the narrative.

Today there are many YouTube DIY’s. Search “how to make” and the first result is how to make mask cloth.

If one isn’t handy, even a neck gaiter is better than nothing.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[cop414]

I ordered a 3 pack of those last week on Amazon, better than nothing and I’m sure they’ll be sold out soon.

[77T]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

I think the operative term is “pre-modern” i.e. a recession not related to monetary policy. I’m not sure it’s an especially useful distinction other than to add a new dimension of hyperbole.

It’s certainly possible - context to monetary policy would’ve been better described as “post-quantitative easing”.

But I do believe this is an unprecedented interruption of social, economic and healthcare systems - one that will shape policies for the coming decades.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[77T]

Originally Posted by cop414

I ordered a 3 pack of those last week on Amazon, better than nothing and I’m sure they’ll be sold out soon.

I use them running, walking in Winter when it’s below freezing and for sun protection while fishing in Summer.

There are two uses: to protect others from your own sneezes, and secondarily to protect yourself.

In either case, they are not very effective unless you double one up by folding the tube back upon itself.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[77T]

The USA unemployment picture is becoming more focused through March 28th measurement (in millions):
6.648 initial jobless claims

Largest one week jump.

About 10 million people have now been hurt by the pandemic because last week’s number was over 3 million.
(Due to many large States’ websites limping along, and people not able to file their initial claims, I expect the real number is higher.)


I certainly hate to see the 5000+ people who have lost their life to Covid-19. But it is possible our neighbors are silently suffering great emotional strain, financial stress and feelings of failure despite this pandemic not being their fault.

The 10 million may need our support in one way or another. Time to be humble if you are not affected and see what we can do to help them. Just my 2¢...




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[statsman]

I have posted before about watching the nations with less restrictions on their people, to see how they fare. So far- not that encouraging. Sweden has a population less 1/30 of the US, and currently has 5,540 cases- roughly comparable to the US, and 300 deaths (50 in the last 24 hours), a pace a little ahead of the US.

The Netherlands tried reduced restrictions until last week. They have a population 1/20 of the US and have 13,600 cases and over 1,100 deaths. This looks very much like a “pick your poison” situation for everyone.

[Star Ferry]

Q for the doctors on here: I no longer have any fever or chest pain, but I'm exhausted. Got out of breath walking up a hill. A few weeks ago I could jog while holding a conversation. Level of fatigue is high. Is this a natural result of having fought an infection? What are the odds of lasting lung/heart damage with this?

[joeychitwood]

Originally Posted by Star Ferry

Q for the doctors on here: I no longer have any fever or chest pain, but I'm exhausted. Got out of breath walking up a hill. A few weeks ago I could jog while holding a conversation. Level of fatigue is high. Is this a natural result of having fought an infection? What are the odds of lasting lung/heart damage with this?

I’m glad to hear you are feeling better. The fatigue and malaise you feel is normal. You’ve recovered from a serious infection with a fairly high mortality rate compared to most community illnesses. No one knows yet how prevalent post-infection complications will be. In Hong Kong, 20-30% of patients who recovered had signs of lung damage, but it is not known if that injury is short term or long. Only time and extensive study will tell, and it will be months or longer before the answers regarding post-infection sequelae are known.

[Star Ferry]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

I’m glad to hear you are feeling better. The fatigue and malaise you feel is normal. You’ve recovered from a serious infection with a fairly high mortality rate compared to most community illnesses. No one knows yet how prevalent post-infection complications will be. In Hong Kong, 20-30% of patients who recovered had signs of lung damage, but it is not known if that injury is short term or long. Only time and extensive study will tell, and it will be months or longer before the answers regarding post-infection sequelae are known.

thanks Joey. and thanks for your continued participation in this thread

[cop414]

Originally Posted by 77T

I use them running, walking in Winter when it’s below freezing and for sun protection while fishing in Summer.

There are two uses: to protect others from your own sneezes, and secondarily to protect yourself.

In either case, they are not very effective unless you double one up by folding the tube back upon itself.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Good to know Paul.

[77T]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

I’m glad to hear you are feeling better. The fatigue and malaise you feel is normal. You’ve recovered from a serious infection with a fairly high mortality rate compared to most community illnesses. No one knows yet how prevalent post-infection complications will be. In Hong Kong, 20-30% of patients who recovered had signs of lung damage, but it is not known if that injury is short term or long. Only time and extensive study will tell, and it will be months or longer before the answers regarding post-infection sequelae are known.

I’ve read the same. As for an individual and his/her own potential compromised lung capacity, would therapy now be a good idea? (Of course with personal physician’s directions)

There are simple, inexpensive tools to help do this at home...



I found them to be affordable - for example: https://www.vitalitymedical.com/huds...CABEgK6gfD_BwE


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[joeychitwood]

Originally Posted by 77T

I’ve read the same. As for an individual and his/her own potential compromised lung capacity, would therapy now be a good idea? (Of course with personal physician’s directions)

I can’t think of a downside to exercising ones heart and lungs, assuming no contraindications or physician restrictions. Most obvious would be not smoking or vaping, avoiding pollutants or allergens like pollens, using meds as prescribed and of course, getting 8-9 hours of sleep.

[Gaijin]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

I’m glad to hear you are feeling better. The fatigue and malaise you feel is normal. You’ve recovered from a serious infection with a fairly high mortality rate compared to most community illnesses. No one knows yet how prevalent post-infection complications will be. In Hong Kong, 20-30% of patients who recovered had signs of lung damage, but it is not known if that injury is short term or long. Only time and extensive study will tell, and it will be months or longer before the answers regarding post-infection sequelae are known.

Doc, it gives me comfort that you are on this thread.

[TheDude]

Originally Posted by DJ39

End game:

May - start going down and transition
June - some return to normalcy
July and August - too hot for Corina virus but still careful due to person to person transmission
September - anti virals approved just in time for flu season and spike in some cases
October and November - contact tracing and testing catches up in entire country. More effective measures and prep
December - uneasy celebration and time for reflection on the last six month. A prayer for a better 2021
January 2021 - Rolex releases coke GMT ceramic. Rolex forum erupts in celebration


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Or just look here by state.


https://covid19.healthdata.org/


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Patton250]

As I’ve told some of you before my wife is a scientist at the University of South Florida in Tampa. Here is an interesting and brief summary from the dean of medicine at USF. It’s his opinion on how we can get out of this. Anyway I know most of you only accept information from scientists so here is one. His ideas and timeline seem pretty reasonable to me.

https://www.tampabay.com/opinion/202...rles-lockwood/

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by Patton250

As I’ve told some of you before my wife is a scientist at the University of South Florida in Tampa. Here is an interesting and brief summary from the dean of medicine at USF. It’s his opinion on how we can get out of this. Anyway I know most of you only accept information from scientists so here is one. His ideas and timeline seem pretty reasonable to me.

https://www.tampabay.com/opinion/202...rles-lockwood/

Thanks for the link. If you look at his timeline, he is not that far off others. And he is still saying several months. And his plan is predicated on wide spread testing of everyone first.

Stay safe.

[77T]

Originally Posted by Patton250

As I’ve told some of you before my wife is a scientist at the University of South Florida in Tampa. Here is an interesting and brief summary from the dean of medicine at USF. It’s his opinion on how we can get out of this. Anyway I know most of you only accept information from scientists so here is one. His ideas and timeline seem pretty reasonable to me.

https://www.tampabay.com/opinion/202...rles-lockwood/

Appreciate the link...

From a science, reporting and recovery rate his review of where we are now is likely reliable. He explains how the death rate has been amplified and the millions of people who were never reported because of mild or no symptoms.

I wish he had better evaluated the factors to support his guessing:
“My best guess is it will take about four-to-six weeks to distribute sufficient testing to identify individuals with proven immunity”

That guess is off by an order of magnitude methinks. IMHO, the level of testing to identify proven immunity is not coming in that period.

To conduct that level of testing in 4-6 weeks (presuming the test kits of each type can be produced and distributed) would mean 7+ million tests per day (24x7) for every day over 6 weeks to cover the US population.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

Thanks for the link. If you look at his timeline, he is not that far off others. And he is still saying several months. And his plan is predicated on wide spread testing of everyone first.

Stay safe.

Yes but he saying several months for the most vulnerable. As you can tell from his article he’s anxious to get people back to work.

[Brew]

He seems to assume that we can't be re-infected or we develop an immunity. I don't think that's been established yet.

[77T]

This post is solely to brighten your day...
Well I had a few friends over for a bite this morning...


Stayed within the CDC recommendation of 10 or less - but...


I failed to keep them from violating the Social Distancing recommendations...
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

So I ate them...

.
.
.
.
.





The dinosaur was tastiest...
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[gtnator]

Lindsey Graham threatens US-Chinese trade over ‘disgusting’ wet markets


https://nypost.com/2020/04/01/lindse...g-wet-markets/


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[watchmework]

Originally Posted by 77T

This post is solely to brighten your day...
Well I had a few friends over for a bite this morning...


Stayed within the CDC recommendation of 10 or less - but...


I failed to keep them from violating the Social Distancing recommendations...
.
.
.
.
.

So I ate them...

.
.
.
.
The dinosaur was tastiest...
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

you did what was needed to be done Paul!