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14 August 2021, 06:00 AM | #1 |
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Why do complicated watches not hold their value?
I don’t understand why a super complicated Patek loses a significant amount of its retail price straight after its purchased from an AD and the nautilus / aquanaut range go up in value?
Yes watches should not be bought for investment but it baffles me how 5270p decreases significantly upon purchase and 5167 increases a lot. What’s you’re thoughts behind the reasons why this happens? Do you think complications will start to hold their value in the future? |
14 August 2021, 06:33 AM | #2 |
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Any value is based on what a willing buyer will pay to a willing seller.
Some models are in greater demand and therefore can command a higher price, others have to be sold cheaper just to get a buyer. If complications do not become popular enough to drive asking prices upward, then no, they will not become more valuable.
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14 August 2021, 06:48 AM | #3 | |
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14 August 2021, 06:59 AM | #4 | |
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14 August 2021, 07:30 AM | #5 |
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Suit sales are still way, way down. So far down in fact by tailor has gotten into the custom hoodie business. I kid you not.
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14 August 2021, 07:34 AM | #6 |
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This is the right answer. Dress watches are simply not worn as much (and likely will never be). The trend toward casual dress is something I'm willing to bet is a forever trend.
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14 August 2021, 07:39 AM | #7 |
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Not all….
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14 August 2021, 07:49 AM | #8 |
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I think MSRP of all complicated watch models are overprice and the demand aren't as much as sport models.
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14 August 2021, 08:21 AM | #9 |
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We are in sport watch era but I am still buying Complications and Grand Complications. You never know after 10/20/30 years :)
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14 August 2021, 08:33 AM | #10 |
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I think it's because dress watches are just worn far less. If they made super complicated pieces in a more sporty way they would sell easily.
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14 August 2021, 08:50 AM | #11 |
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I have slightly different opinion than what has been said so far.
Historically speaking and before the hype started: The 5711 and 5167 are among the entry level in terms of patek prices. So no wonder people thought of it when wanting to enter the patek club rather than complicated or more expensive watches. As more and more people got interested in these two references and supplies started drying prices in the secondary market started creeping higher (to the point of surpassing higher complication prices) And interest in other models in the two lines started growing. Just like people interest grew in other references when 5711 and 5167 where in short supply, and as other models of nautilus and Aquanut also become in short supply…people will develop interest in complicated watches and grand complicated watches It is a matter of time Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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14 August 2021, 08:56 AM | #12 |
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FP Journe goes up in value. Maybe it has something to do with... you know.
You could try a Rolex SkyD, great value and far better annual calendar design than old-school PP side pushers. Higher waterproofness too.
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14 August 2021, 09:45 AM | #13 |
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Lol seriously now we are comparing Rolex SkyD to Patek Phillips complications?
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14 August 2021, 10:12 AM | #14 |
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Oh, and tongue in cheek, you could say sales for the most complicated watch of all, from Apple, is sales at all time high.
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14 August 2021, 10:32 AM | #15 | |
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14 August 2021, 10:34 AM | #16 |
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Few reasons that I can see.
1. People are dressing more casually, and sport models are more versatile and therefore more desirable 2. We live in a time of conspicuous consumption. The people who buy watches hoping nobody will notice their wrist are a small minority. I also believe some of those who claim to be in this group are liars. To the average guy, it is not easy to tell Calatrava from Daniel Wellington. You might think this is ridiculous, but this is coming from my own experience. And many people who spend $20k+ on a watch do not want it to be mistaken for a watch that costs $200, including myself. This is why I collect both sport and dress watches. Call me pretentious or what not, but this element of conspicuous consumption is the reality of the luxury goods market. Which brings me on to the next point. 3. Sport models are iconic, even from 10 feet away. People can identify a Rolex, Royal Oak and Nautilus just by the bracelet. There’s a reason so many “homage” brands try to copy them. Meanwhile only connoisseurs appreciate the differences between a Calatrava and a Patrimony. To most people they’re just round watches, and Complications are just round watches with more busy dials. Connoisseurs by definition make up a small portion of the market. This is why demand is less for dress watches…only connoisseurs appreciate them. Meanwhile sport watches are appreciated by typical wealthy spenders, fashionable celebrities and also by connoisseurs therefore there is a much larger market. |
14 August 2021, 11:29 AM | #17 | |
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This is spot on Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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14 August 2021, 11:36 AM | #18 |
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Complicated watches and their second hand prices are not above the laws of supply and demand. Why isn’t there more of a demand for them? Besides their prices (which are unaffordable for even the majority of TRF members), other reasons outlined above.
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14 August 2021, 12:33 PM | #19 |
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Complicated functions in Nautilus (5740 & 5726) and Royal Oak (repeater, tourbillon & PC) cases are doing extremely well. I don't think it has anything to do with the complications but the watch case and bracelet which play a big role in demand today. If you drop the PCC movement into the Nautilus case, the value will double from MSRP.
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14 August 2021, 01:03 PM | #20 | |
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14 August 2021, 01:32 PM | #21 |
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Lots of good points above about the shift towards sports watches. However, let’s remember that Journe dress watches (simple and complicated) are doing fine. Yes, they make far fewer watches than Patek and perhaps it’s not the perfect comparison, but it wasn’t too long ago that many independent watch brands tanked immensely versus MSRP. As we all know, Journe watches now hold their value very well, and many are even worth even more than MSRP.
I think a big part of it is Journe is priced right whereas Patek’s pricing of dress watches, particularly complications and grand complications, is a bit absurd.
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14 August 2021, 04:15 PM | #22 | |
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14 August 2021, 08:24 PM | #23 |
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Watch prices are currently being driven by consumers of fashion. They don't want to spend hours setting the various little dials on their watch when they haven't worn it in a week. They don't want to spend a fortune having it repaired when one of those little dials doesn't function properly. They want the name without the hassle.
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14 August 2021, 08:45 PM | #24 | |
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Consumers of fashion won't pay 50-250k if they can get the name for 25-50k. No wonder 5740 had a slow start in the preowned market compared to most other Nautilus despite being considered the king of the Nautilus lineup by some. |
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14 August 2021, 09:21 PM | #25 | ||
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but i would be curious to see how the 5726 compares to a skydweller Quote:
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14 August 2021, 09:58 PM | #26 |
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I agree with nearly everything said and supply and demand underlies all. My understanding has always been as an ultra-luxury good, they are not priced to hold their value for resale. That really isn’t the intent or norm for any products of this nature. It is only when there is abnormal demand or a limited / collector version that you see a blip in the resale value. Remember, we are suppose to keep and pass on, not sell. At least that is how they are priced.
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14 August 2021, 10:11 PM | #27 | |
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14 August 2021, 10:32 PM | #28 | |
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14 August 2021, 10:51 PM | #29 | |
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Look at the innovation of the Rolex SkyD movement and compare to Patek's annual calendar. Rolex truly is an amazing complication that also ensures a high waterproofness too. Very usable as a daily for people who love office life AND the ocean. Five-year warranty too. If you mean true high-quality movement decoration, then obviously you'll want FP Journe. So yes, take your pic if you want incredible innovation (Rolex) or perhaps the very best in movement decoration (FP Journe). How would you compare FP Journe to PP when it comes to offering truly excellent movement handwork? Here's a video of the SkyD movement, look at all that incredible innovation! https://youtu.be/abHr5TOu6m4 Am sure you already know of FP Journe's greatness so....
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14 August 2021, 10:53 PM | #30 |
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Trends come and go and are impossible to predict. All I know is that it is great the younger generation is still into watches. Whatever their reason is it keeps our hobby alive. One day once they get bored of the usual popular sports watches, they will gravitate towards dress watches. We might already be seeing signs of this with rising values of Lange etc
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