First Grey to fall… The Watch Standard

[HelloMelo]

And here we go… overleveraged average grays falling one by one.




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[Vince M.]

And watches will be blowing out of AD cases in short order. The blood letting has begun and its going to get much much worse.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Vince M.

And watches will be blowing out of AD cases in short order. The blood letting has begun and its going to get much much worse.

Awesome, cannot wait until there are discounted Subs and Daytonas in every AD case

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Awesome, cannot wait until there are discounted Subs and Daytonas in every AD case

Please PM when it is happening.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by brandrea

Honestly sounds like waaaaay too much drama for me.

I’ll stick to buying watches from my AD

Exactly!

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

Please PM when it is happening.

Any day now

[Littletommy]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Awesome, cannot wait until there are discounted Subs and Daytonas in every AD case

You're going to waiting a long time.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Littletommy

You're going to waiting a long time.

Not waiting at all, don’t care.

I have moved on. Rolex neither wants nor needs my business and I am very happy

[101031-28]

By looking at their website it seems like it is business as usual.

[Solo118]

Originally Posted by 101031-28

By looking at their website it seems like it is business as usual.

They are probably making whatever sales they can to pay back their vendors. However this just shows that many people were over their head thinking the prices would just continue going up on a weekly basis

[Goupax]

Even Roman Sharf from Luxury Bazaar in his last video was troublesome, his partner Adrian was on air stating that they would not accept trade ins anymore unless it made sense for them to stock the references they receive as part exchange. Those large greys stocking 20+ watches of the same model because they can't unload them fast enough anymore is just another sign that these dealers are holding the largest bag of odorous excrement that has ever been assembled in the history of the grey market. This whole business looks more and more like the movie Margin Call, remember the scene where Kevin Spacey drills his sales staff to unload all their securities, whatever it takes? And no swaps allowed, everything must come out of the door by the end of the day.

I'm telling you guys, these muppets truly have no clue about the real market value of the assets they are selling, and most of them don't care as long as the music keeps going on. The less savvy ones make threads on forums asking in which direction the wind is blowing, it just goes to show you that nobody knows who or what dictates the value of those pieces on the secondary market.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by Goupax

Even Roman Sharf from Luxury Bazaar in his last video was troublesome, his partner Adrian was on air stating that they would not accept trade ins anymore unless it made sense for them to stock the references they receive as part exchange. Those large greys stocking 20+ watches of the same model because they can't unload them fast enough anymore is just another sign that these dealers are holding the largest bag of odorous excrement that has ever been assembled in the history of the grey market. This whole business looks more and more like the movie Margin Call, remember the scene where Kevin Spacey drills his sales staff to unload all their securities, whatever it takes? And no swaps allowed, everything must come out of the door by the end of the day.

I'm telling you guys, these muppets truly have no clue about the real market value of the assets they are selling, and most of them don't care as long as the music keeps going on. The less savvy ones make threads on forums asking in which direction the wind is blowing, it just goes to show you that nobody knows who or what dictates the value of those pieces on the secondary market.

seeing all these greys advise clients on watches late last year/early this year was fun to watch too. seemingly every model was gonna go up forever and a safe buy

i think LB is a bit different from the rest though because they have a pretty big and legitimate operation that goes past watches and they don't only focus on 10 models like every other youtube grey dealer that wanted to get rich

[Goupax]

Originally Posted by huncho

seeing all these greys advise clients on watches late last year/early this year was fun to watch too. seemingly every model was gonna go up forever and a safe buy

i think LB is a bit different from the rest though because they have a pretty big and legitimate operation that goes past watches and they don't only focus on 10 models like every other youtube grey dealer that wanted to get rich

Goldman Sachs had a pretty big and legitimate operation as well before 2008, just being a whale does not make you bulletproof. You could even argue that the bigger you are, the harder it is to steer the ship in a different direction to save yourself in a down turn. We can all laugh at the backpack dealers but they don't have as much to lose as those established brick and mortar dealers and their substantial overheads and inventories that are as liquid as molasses right now.

Have you noticed as well that LB is pushing the jewellery part of their business more and more in their latest videos? They seem to have put a lot of focus on training new sales staff on the popular brands and collections that will move easily, the margins on these items must be so much better than watches right now. Especially if the dealer has a good eye on what piece might be a opportunity to make an healthy and fast profit.

[Polar Bear]

Originally Posted by huncho

seeing all these greys advise clients on watches late last year/early this year was fun to watch too. seemingly every model was gonna go up forever and a safe buy

i think LB is a bit different from the rest though because they have a pretty big and legitimate operation that goes past watches and they don't only focus on 10 models like every other youtube grey dealer that wanted to get rich

I just feel bad for every non watch person that bought into the BS in an effort to diversify their investment portfolios
I recall one vid (6 months- 1 year ago) where a infamous dealer delivered a fully stickered Platona to a new client who bought it purely as an investment piece
I bet that guy is sweating bullets right now

I think LB will be fine, Roman managed to survive the 08 crash and have a pretty diverse business offering, he's the only well known youtuber i follow that seems to push/mention brands outside of the hype and has said many times, theres almost no margin in rolex these days.
Fingers crossed his sales staff are good at actually selling watches rather than just taking orders as i fear they may be in for a shock

[JWillard]

Originally Posted by Goupax

Even Roman Sharf from Luxury Bazaar in his last video was troublesome, his partner Adrian was on air stating that they would not accept trade ins anymore unless it made sense for them to stock the references they receive as part exchange. Those large greys stocking 20+ watches of the same model because they can't unload them fast enough anymore is just another sign that these dealers are holding the largest bag of odorous excrement that has ever been assembled in the history of the grey market. This whole business looks more and more like the movie Margin Call, remember the scene where Kevin Spacey drills his sales staff to unload all their securities, whatever it takes? And no swaps allowed, everything must come out of the door by the end of the day.

I'm telling you guys, these muppets truly have no clue about the real market value of the assets they are selling, and most of them don't care as long as the music keeps going on. The less savvy ones make threads on forums asking in which direction the wind is blowing, it just goes to show you that nobody knows who or what dictates the value of those pieces on the secondary market.

i cant remember which podcast or YouTube vid i was watching, well rather listening to, they had a discussions how some dealer groups basically buying same watches back and forth driving prices up and even using the same pics from the original seller, if that the case no telling the real value, only over the next months or year will determine the true value

[Turbo Racer]

Is this the same company that was a site sponsor? Maybe I’m confusing it with some other company that I saw the banner for?

[jfmiii]

Originally Posted by Turbo Racer

Is this the same company that was a site sponsor? Maybe I’m confusing it with some other company that I saw the banner for?

Not sure but they still have watches for sale on TRF.

https://www.watchrecon.com/?user_nam...rd&last_days=0

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by jfmiii

Not sure but they still have watches for sale on TRF.

https://www.watchrecon.com/?user_nam...rd&last_days=0

Yeah, you might want to go there in person and call in the wire.. just sayin

[Al1969]

Originally Posted by EEpro

Yeah, you might want to go there in person and call in the wire.. just sayin

[Al1969]

Originally Posted by Turbo Racer

Is this the same company that was a site sponsor? Maybe I’m confusing it with some other company that I saw the banner for?

I recall seeing their banner as well. I’m sure they won’t be last ones to fold.

[Al1969]

It’s happening.

[TheVTCGuy]

Uhm…. So maybe I am not seeing the obvious, someone correct me, but exactly WHERE did this “Admin announcement” Come from and WHO sent it? Who exactly is: “Admin Team” and how do they know all this information?

[SlideRacker]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

Uhm…. So maybe I am not seeing the obvious, someone correct me, but exactly WHERE did this “Admin announcement” Come from and WHO sent it? Who exactly is: “Admin Team” and how do they know all this information?

Moda

[Ferdelious]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

Uhm…. So maybe I am not seeing the obvious, someone correct me, but exactly WHERE did this “Admin announcement” Come from and WHO sent it? Who exactly is: “Admin Team” and how do they know all this information?

GB-Man posted this in the WatchOut Section as well. It's a FB group called Moda Watch Club.

[Seddyspaghetti]

“It’s happening”

[AmirudinAbduk]

And the administrator / owner of the group is in this forum as well.

[BDSedd]

I’ve approached several reputable grey dealers to sell a Rolex and no one seemed interested. They said they have to pass.

[rrags]

Originally Posted by BDSedd

I’ve approached several reputable grey dealers to sell a Rolex and no one seemed interested. They said they have to pass.

Same experience here with 2 different models.

[Gebbeth]

Doesn't Moda occasionally flash list watches on eBay for like $10.00 as an opening bid, and then remove the postings a micro-second later?

Anyway, I'm not surprised that a company like the Watch Standard(?) might be having problems (FYI, their outward behavior...like nothing bad is going on....is NEVER an accurate indication of the true state of things).

It's when the LBs, Watchboxes, Watchfinders, Crown & Caliber's, DavidSW's, and Bob's Watches of the world start to have financial problems that you can say the canary is chirping in the coal mine.

I have seen small price drops, but no huge movement from these entities. Perhaps they have more varied inventory and deeper pockets (like Richemont with Watchfinder), but until you see them buckle, there will only be incremental change.

BUT, to ignore what is going on in the larger watch market and the economy in general would be just plain stupid.

Remember, the 2008 financial crisis began when banks and i-banks began turning bad loans into more varied and leveraged bad debt, and traders started to bid up the bad assets between each other on the secondary markets. This behavior just kept feeding the beast until somehow, someone sensed what was going on and started to sell.

The crisis actually happened when banks started to turn on each other and refused to buy and trade these securities when one or more of them got burned.

Then the market essentially turned illiquid and all the actual cash that was circulating between these players disappeared. Not even "safe" securities, like the commercial paper market, were liquid. Everything....for a brief and scary moment...stopped.

You can draw the parallels from there.

[jj312]

Originally Posted by Gebbeth

It's when the LBs, Watchboxes, Watchfinders, Crown & Caliber's, DavidSW's, and Bob's Watches of the world start to have financial problems that you can say the canary is chirping in the coal mine.

Oof... if we get to that point, the mine has collapsed and we're all dead! That's the bulk of the used/grey market right there!

[Gebbeth]

Originally Posted by jj312

Oof... if we get to that point, the mine has collapsed and we're all dead! That's the bulk of the used/grey market right there!

True, but I guess I meant "financial trouble" in the milder sense....profits way down, some bad quarters....but not bankruptcy-like financial trouble.