How is this any different to a #1 restaurant, Porsche or Ferrari limited run, Clubs?

[Brew]

Why do so many people want a Camry?


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[RealMadrid1988]

Originally Posted by Aquinas

Rolex isn't comparable with Ferrari. Rolex built and builds robust, reliable tool watches. A better comparison would be Toyota. And having to beg to get on a waiting list for a Camry would irritate quite a lot of people.

Someone is bitter!

[fsprow]

Where a Rolex is still reliable and sturdy, it is no longer a "tool watch". It has been moved upscale by Rolex as a luxury good and appeals to a different clientele with accompanying increases in demand.

Those who don't appreciate this protect their expenditure by avoiding tiny scratches, checking for dust with a loupe, constantly checking timekeeping and desiring strange colored dials and bezels.

Sorry, the old ship has sailed.

[PaulChronometer]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Agreed but for those of us like myself in the game for decades, I don’t like being manipulated. The issue where these things are only attainable by oligarchs when they used to be available at army bases is sad, and from my vantage point distasteful. Rolex is quickly becoming synonymous with ostentatious displays of wealth and run away capitalism as its deep history of making watches that have survived the highest peaks, deepest depths, and hell of warfare fades into obscurity. Just sad really. Some may call it clever marketing and yes rolex os making bank, but it’s selling out.

Totally agree. I once purchased a Rolex Explorer because of its timeless, toolwatch, iconic under-the-radar characteristics.

What is happening now is that Rolex is becoming more and more associated with flexing ­­­­­– a trend that feeds on the (artificial?) scarcity and prices way above retail. The games one has to play to get one, and the sad association with showing of wealth rather than a love for watches of high quality.

So the OP may have given a correct impression of what is happening, but I am not sure if Rolex will benefit in the longer run. Like a club that attracts more and more crowd, but of the wrong kind, and in the end things collapse. I am exaggerating of course, but I don't see how this will pay off in the end.

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by PaulChronometer

Totally agree. I once purchased a Rolex Explorer because of its timeless, toolwatch, iconic under-the-radar characteristics.

What is happening now is that Rolex is becoming more and more associated with flexing ­­­­­– a trend that feeds on the (artificial?) scarcity and prices way above retail. The games one has to play to get one, and the sad association with showing of wealth rather than a love for watches of high quality.

So the OP may have given a correct impression of what is happening, but I am not sure if Rolex will benefit in the longer run. Like a club that attracts more and more crowd, but of the wrong kind, and in the end things collapse. I am exaggerating of course, but I don't see how this will pay off in the end.

I mean it’s getting gross. I am spending more and more time wearing my seiko arnie and turtle. Both watches with real heritage as well, and do what I need from the functional standpoint.


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[teck21]

Originally Posted by airchitect

Sure they are, esp from a marketing (ie lack of inventory) perspective, but the product is no better than it was a decade ago. So reality is, they are not more “tangibly” upmarket than when an LN GMT could be had in the low 6’s brand new. At least the other brands mentioned actually deliver something for those dollars whether it be hand finishing, crazy movements etc. This is simply a case of a company being smart and consumers being naive as all hell.


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Upmarket is really nothing more than a matter of perception.

To call the new breed of consumers naive is rather uncharitable.

It is certainly possible that they simply view what Rolex is, and what Rolex stands for very differently from the traditional markets of US/W Europe due to a mixture of marketing and new found wealth.

It is worth noting that a lot of these so-called naive consumers have done very well recently, while many supposedly savvy consumers have been languishing on the sidelines.

Only time will tell whether they are indeed naive, or simply fast to recognise the evolution of Rolex as a watch and a brand.


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[ramenlover]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Agreed but for those of us like myself in the game for decades, I don’t like being manipulated. The issue where these things are only attainable by oligarchs when they used to be available at army bases is sad, and from my vantage point distasteful. Rolex is quickly becoming synonymous with ostentatious displays of wealth and run away capitalism as its deep history of making watches that have survived the highest peaks, deepest depths, and hell of warfare fades into obscurity. Just sad really. Some may call it clever marketing and yes rolex os making bank, but it’s selling out.

You call it selling out, I call it adapting with the times

[Chiboy]

Well, another "stretch" analogy is when your favorite band goes from playing small clubs to football stadiums. You can either consider yourself lucky that you got to see the band or buy the watch before superstardom, or lament that it isn't as good as the good old days.

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by Aquinas

Rolex isn't comparable with Ferrari. Rolex built and builds robust, reliable tool watches. A better comparison would be Toyota. And having to beg to get on a waiting list for a Camry would irritate quite a lot of people.

You've seen toyota truck secondary prices right?

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by ramenlover

You call it selling out, I call it adapting with the times

Not so much adapting as Rolex was never hurting for cash. More evolution, but to my eye in the wrong direction. I mean it’s to the point where I’m almost embarrassed to wear the thing anymore. If not for the fact that it was gifted to me by my late mother back in the late 90’s I would get rid of it. I gave my 116520 to my wife a couple years back as well.


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[tarponfly]

Originally Posted by Chiboy

Well, another "stretch" analogy is when your favorite band goes from playing small clubs to football stadiums. You can either consider yourself lucky that you got to see the band or buy the watch before superstardom, or lament that it isn't as good as the good old days.

Great analogy....love this.

[ramenlover]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Not so much adapting as Rolex was never hurting for cash. More evolution, but to my eye in the wrong direction. I mean it’s to the point where I’m almost embarrassed to wear the thing anymore. If not for the fact that it was gifted to me by my late mother back in the late 90’s I would get rid of it. I gave my 116520 to my wife a couple years back as well.


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A brand that merely seeks to survive will inevitably die. Rolex consistently stays ahead of the curve and I respect that. Unfortunately a business cannot please everybody.

[DC116710LN]

Every party in this ecosystem is acting in their own best interests. Rolex is maintaining production levels and prices for long term growth, buyers are rushing to purchase high value assets, ADs are leveraging rabid demand to maximize their own profit, and aspiring social media influencers are using exclusive goods to signal worth.

[Harry-57]

Good post OP.

Pretty much agree with all of it.

[Emery]

Originally Posted by Aquinas

Rolex isn't comparable with Ferrari. Rolex built and builds robust, reliable tool watches. A better comparison would be Toyota. And having to beg to get on a waiting list for a Camry would irritate quite a lot of people.

I wouldn't go as far to call it a Toyota.

A BMW or a Benz maybe.

[Rashid.bk]

Completely different when it comes to each topic, cars is way off. Show me where some second hand dealer has seven new Ferraris or Porsche GT RS brand new in stock. Not to mention that you can actually buy most Porsche models.
Golfing restaurants, well I still can get a slot on off day or even pay my way thru in some cases, there are no off days at Rolex.

Bottom line this analogy of cross comparisons doesn’t hold weight, hell you can’t find some grey dealer selling 20 Birkin bags brand new with boxes and dust bags.
This Rolex problem is bigger than Rolex itself and it’s created mostly by a combination of high demand, lots of wealth with buyers and an opportunist free market capitalist society.

[Kelvin Knight]

prestigiously aged and highly-capitalized BRANDS who sell material things to consumers, adapting seamlessly to the many nuances of how consumers purchase material things in modern times… shocker.

It doesn’t matter who they are or what they’re selling. Find a way to get in on the action or get back on the bench.

[samuel019]

Originally Posted by inadeje

Thread after thread concerning the disgust, head-scratching and indignation that Rolex AD’s don’t have watches, restrict sales or are selective with customers. Yet we have examples all around us that this happens in many industries, services and retail environments.

Ferrari 599 GTO, F12 TDF, 812 GTS - Just one example of limited run 12 cylinder Ferrari’s (there are many other variants). These cars were all limited production. You weren’t getting one unless you have an extensive and contemporary buying history with Ferrari. Out-the-gate lucky buyers could quadruple (or more) retail price, but Ferrari keeps tabs on these resale shenanigans and the offenders NEVER get a sought after Ferrari again. NO MATTER who they are.

Porsche GT-2, GT-3 - ditto above

The most popular restaurant in a major city - News flash - You’re probably never getting a table. If you do it will be outside of usual dining hours. After you’ve dined numerous times during these bizarre hours you’ll create a “relationship” and maybe, just maybe, you’ll get to dine one Friday night if its your 30 wedding anniversary, birthday etc. Maybe… Dress code? If they say no sneakers, you’re not getting in with sneakers NO MATTER who they are.

Clubs - Super select nightclubs. Has anyone tried to get into a major city’s hottest nightspot?

Golf Clubs - Anyone play Golf? How about the chicest Golf Club in say the Hamptons? Are you just showing up there, paying your membership and playing? How many personal references do you need? Interview? Board approval?

I hope that this thread isn’t off topic, but the memo everyone isn’t getting is that Rolex has moved upmarket in dramatic fashion. Some of It’s products have become the unicorn of the watch world. This Forum you’re reading hasn’t probably ever been as active as it is now.

The “disgust”, “AD won’t”, “empty cases” and “waiting list” threads are just repetitive reminders that our much loved brand has hit the high notes, it’s become coveted, it’s arriving in Patek or AP territory, or moving close to this niche.

I’ve listed a few examples of industries, services and retail environments in which this has been the case for DECADES. Anyone else care to provide more examples, services or products that coincide with this new Rolex reality? If only to bring back some sanity to TRF and underline why this current situation isn’t as abnormal as we incessantly or continuously keep reading.

The Rolex boat sailed, or at least it has for the foreseeable future. I for one salute Rolex, it’s truly masterful what they’ve achieved through marketing and supply quotas. They’ve cultivated this brand in such a manner that it’s so impressive to see it explode the way it has over the past few years. We lose perspective though, we are blessed that this happened on our watch (pardon the pun). I mean that it’s happening now and we are witnessing it first hand. It’s only taken 116 years…, but things have changed positively for the brand. It was overdue in my humble opinion.

Originally Posted by airchitect

Agree in some respects except many of your examples are far more upmarket than Rolex. Meaning they’re more comparable to Patek, Journe, etc. Not run of the mill Rolex.


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Originally Posted by 1William

I like the OP's points and see it also with other luxury goods and services. I believe the expectation for some is that if a company produces a good and sets a price they should be able to buy it for that price. Works with most items but for some, not so much. It all comes down to money. If we could walk into any AD and buy what ever watch we wanted for retail or less then many would not want them. I remember the days of getting any Rolex, except the Daytona in SS, at a discount and on the spot. Trusted Sellers were loved for the discounts and post after post on TRF was about the good deals we got. Now it is as much about speculation and equity in the watches and if you get it at retail you can sell in the future for more. In the end, it is always about the watches for me.

Originally Posted by Aquinas

Rolex isn't comparable with Ferrari. Rolex built and builds robust, reliable tool watches. A better comparison would be Toyota. And having to beg to get on a waiting list for a Camry would irritate quite a lot of people.

Originally Posted by Chiboy

Well, another "stretch" analogy is when your favorite band goes from playing small clubs to football stadiums. You can either consider yourself lucky that you got to see the band or buy the watch before superstardom, or lament that it isn't as good as the good old days.

All of these posts I agree with in parts. All well stated.

The problem I have overall and has others have stated I do not think Rolex is on the level, as of yet anyway, to the much more limited scenarios.

Ferrari, Porsche, Hermes, even certain items from LV, PP, Blancpain, AL&S, and others are all on a different level.

Part of what I think where the whole problem started was when all the "hype chasers" thought lets go get a Rolex and flex then they found out "wait a minute most of these are "only" 8-10K? Well I'm buying a ton of them in SS.

And they did

You're not saying that with PP and AP and a bunch of others. Now sure there are tons of other factors and the 8-10k analogy doesnt apply to all models and isnt a small amount of money to most.

Then on a different note I believe that most of our long time trusted sellers have a relationship that goes waaaaaaay back to a time when discounts on TRF were as certain as the sun coming up. So if these trusted sellers were keeping that A D afloat when Rolex's werent flying off the shelf I'd like to think there is a since of loyalty and they still get pieces. Granted the math/which ones has changed but the relationship is still there.

So when you add up A and B then multiply it with more and more hype chasers and more and more Grey sellers this is what you have. I mean no disrespect to any of the Grey sellers here on TRF but way back in 2012 when I joined it was mostly David, Patrick, Tony, Oscar, Thanh, and yes a few outliers but look at it now. Much much more.

Now we have No availability, games, and on and on . End result is the true Rolex enthusiast gets the short end of the stick.

All of this is just my so blast away if you disagree. But all the complaining and whining and whatever you wanna call it changes nothing but I guess it does help some have a platform to vent

[asiparks]

Originally Posted by Emery

I wouldn't go as far to call it a Toyota.

A BMW or a Benz maybe.

He said "robust and reliable"

[ROBERT1183]

I don't know if id compare it to a Ferrari. Their proecess for vetting customers and preventing flippers from receiveing allocations it alot more stringent. For most the price of a new Ferrari is out of reach for the masses, where as just about anyone with decent credit can through a rolex on a credit card and transfer it to a 0% interest card with a small fee and pay it over a few years. Im just a regular joe, I cant afford a new Ferrari, but i can swing $10-14k+ on a new Rolex. Which is what im trying to do lol

[Boopie]

Originally Posted by IamJacky

I know of a Japanese silver jewelry brand named Goro's that was coveted among only enthusiasts back in the early 2000's and thanks to the internet it's become so sought after today that there's an entire economy based on its secondary market, similar to Rolex (though the brand is only mostly popular in Asia whereas Rolex is world-wide).

Goro's specializes in hand-made, Native-American inspired silver pieces, with the Eagle Feather as its iconic piece. All the pieces were originally solely hand crafted by its creator Goro Takahashi, the silver works are continued by his disciples after his passing in 2013.



Prior to the age of the internet and social media, Goro's were mostly revered by certain groups of enthusiasts/collectors who were "in the know" and appreciated the craft and style of the brand.

Goro's has a very, very strict/strange shopping policy. There is only one shop in the world that is in Tokyo Japan; they only allow a certain number of customers into their store (I think 5) at any given time; only those who waited in line and got the raffle number get to go in and only when they're called; they don't always have all the products available for sale, AND they have the final say if they want to sell the pieces to you.

Still, Goro's popularity continued to climb. In recent years, thanks to the exposure of social media and internet, the demand for their pieces have skyrocketed to unprecedented level.

Despite their increasing popularity, Goro's do not expand their business; they don't plan on ever opening a second branch store nor do they plan on increasing production of their pieces at all. In many ways it is quite similar to the Rolex phenomenon: the demand grew exponentially while supply remains low.

As a result, there is now an entire secondary market with dealers who specialize in reselling Goro's pieces at significant premiums for those who don't want to go through the near-impossible task of shopping at a Goro's store.

Literally never heard of them until this post, but now I totally want one!



Agree with OP. 20 years ago the Daytona was the unobtainable Rolex, but everything else was available. When I first joined TRF, the common posts were “how much of a discount can I get?” I guess Rolex decided somewhere along the way to be a super-luxury company. Who knows? Maybe the CEO was sick and tired of everyone saying Patek was the best. Maybe it was the internet, or the exploding market in China. Regardless of how we got here, here we are. Check out the Hermès Birkin bag market.

If you’re not in your expensive car or your pricey house, how do people know you’re wealthy? For women, it’s the purse. For men, it’s the watch. I’ve been to countless fancy events in Los Angeles, and when everyone is gathering around at the end, waiting for the valets to bring the cars, people do notice what kind of car we drive. It’s a proxy for success. We can have philosophical debates about whether that’s appealing to our “better angels,” or how dumb it is to lease a new BMW when you’re better off driving your paid-for Honda Accord until the wheels fall off, but that’s the way it is. It’s no holier than thou, because as much as I enjoy my MBZ, if I were a housewife driving around some totally middle class town, I’d have a different car.

So yes, the world has changed, and impossible to predict the future. Who knew just two years ago how much the world would change. COVID, Zoom, mask mandates, social distancing, travel restrictions, etc. The way we live, work, and learn has changed.

[Kelvin Knight]

Originally Posted by ROBERT1183

I don't know if id compare it to a Ferrari. Their proecess for vetting customers and preventing flippers from receiveing allocations it alot more stringent. For most the price of a new Ferrari is out of reach for the masses, where as just about anyone with decent credit can through a rolex on a credit card and transfer it to a 0% interest card with a small fee and pay it over a few years. Im just a regular joe, I cant afford a new Ferrari, but i can swing $10-14k+ on a new Rolex. Which is what im trying to do lol

Agreed. Instant profit for the average buyer (instead of Rolex SA) has them on their heels. It definitely wasn’t planned nor is it entirely preventable and has completely gotten away from them at this point.

[gerry100]

Porsche is like Rolex in that it’s on the rung where many moderately
Well off people can own/live with
Ferraris/Lamborghini along with $100k watches are for a more
Select few

[asiparks]

Rolex has been churning out roughly the same quantity of watches for years, priced, save for the occassional increase, in the roughly the same strata, sponsoring the same golf matches, appearing in the same glossy mags.

I don't believe Rolex themselves can take any credit for the current madness, which has been driven by a combination of social media and available cash, amplified by AD tactics and Grey dealers nudging up the price to test the limits of demand elasticity. Rolex were probably as surprised as anyone else.

Rolex are not limited in numbers, they're still getting churned out. Rolex is not controlling steering the market. Grey dealers are, by setting the price- so everyone looking to sell their Rolex wants at least 2X what they paid. Dealers favored customers are buying to flip or are holding in the hope of the market going higher.

Rolex may have moved "upmarket" in terms of speculative pricing, but the watches remain middle tier. Is this really helping the brand or hurting it, only time will tell, but there's often a backlash when something becomes over hyped.

If you have enough play money to buy a $13k steel watch for $34K, all power to you, but for that money there are more compelling, higher quality items.

To go back to the idea of cars and Toyotas. If Camrys suddenly became a social media phenom, sold out at dealerships and used car dealers were charging $80K for a $22k car, you could leap on the hype, or you could say "eff that!" and buy a 2 year old M5 or S8 instead.
And you could post saying how great your $80k Camry is, but really, is it ?

[douglasf13]

Rolex is basically the Porsche of watches, not Ferrari. Ferrari sells less than 9k vehicles per year, while Porsche sells 30x more than that. It made sense when a few Rolex models were hard to get, just like a few Porsche models, but now that situation has jumped the shark.

It wasn’t that long ago that luxury vehicle sales fell off a cliff, not only because of the lack of funds from people struggling after the recession, but also because people didn’t want to be “seen” as rich during that hard time. Add in the future health potential of smart watches, and it leaves me thinking the current Rolex hype won’t necessarily last forever.

[jcapulet786]

Originally Posted by ROBERT1183

I don't know if id compare it to a Ferrari. Their proecess for vetting customers and preventing flippers from receiveing allocations it alot more stringent. For most the price of a new Ferrari is out of reach for the masses, where as just about anyone with decent credit can through a rolex on a credit card and transfer it to a 0% interest card with a small fee and pay it over a few years. Im just a regular joe, I cant afford a new Ferrari, but i can swing $10-14k+ on a new Rolex. Which is what im trying to do lol

Both you and I my friend.

[Bizcut1]

Well said.

But you'll never stop the whining. People love to complain.

[kieselguhr]

Originally Posted by Bizcut1

Well said.

But you'll never stop the whining. People love to complain.

Bingo

[jb335]

In other words;

c'est la vie

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by Rashid.bk

Completely different when it comes to each topic, cars is way off. Show me where some second hand dealer has seven new Ferraris or Porsche GT RS brand new in stock. Not to mention that you can actually buy most Porsche models.
Golfing restaurants, well I still can get a slot on off day or even pay my way thru in some cases, there are no off days at Rolex.

Bottom line this analogy of cross comparisons doesn’t hold weight, hell you can’t find some grey dealer selling 20 Birkin bags brand new with boxes and dust bags.
This Rolex problem is bigger than Rolex itself and it’s created mostly by a combination of high demand, lots of wealth with buyers and an opportunist free market capitalist society.

Agreed. I won’t tackle every analogy OP was trying to make but I’ll say you cant compare rare supercars to mass produced wrist trinkets. Like others have already mentioned, DavidSW has every hot model you want and can even source you a brand new one tomorrow if you wanted. You cannot do that with the aforementioned supercars.

All this is is hype and false scarcity. Once flippers stop making double their money it’ll fall apart. Once greys can’t trade inflated inventory amongst themselves anymore it’ll fall apart. Who knows when, but I’ll be on the sidelines laughing.


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