The Assassination of the Swiss Watch Industry by the Coward Apple

[Chewbacca]

Good thread. Thanks OP.

As a business case, the video isn’t wrong. It’s all available data and even Swiss executives have been saying smart watches are a threat in the <$5k range. What’s interesting to me is why companies like Rolex don’t simply crank up the price, now, and are instead pissing off many loyal ambassadors and collectors by throttling production or allowing ADs to own a failing relationship with a back door to new resellers.

Simply double the prices yesterday, and go ultra premium and you solve so many issues and set the tone. Because having an ‘intro’ priced Rolex is an intro to nothing if your market isn’t being replaced, there’s no watch to buy, and nobody even cares.

Rolex has the bank to ride any waves for a decade and it’ll be better in the end.

It’s mind blowing how they’re messing this up.

[HiBoost]

Originally Posted by Chewbacca

Good thread. Thanks OP.

As a business case, the video isn’t wrong. It’s all available data and even Swiss executives have been saying smart watches are a threat in the <$5k range. What’s interesting to me is why companies like Rolex don’t simply crank up the price, now, and are instead pissing off many loyal ambassadors and collectors by throttling production or allowing ADs to own a failing relationship with a back door to new resellers.

Simply double the prices yesterday, and go ultra premium and you solve so many issues and set the tone. Because having an ‘intro’ priced Rolex is an intro to nothing if your market isn’t being replaced, there’s no watch to buy, and nobody even cares.

Rolex has the bank to ride any waves for a decade and it’ll be better in the end.

It’s mind blowing how they’re messing this up.

But what company in the history of any industry has doubled prices on the same product line? No company that respects its reputation or its customers could get away with that. Gradual doubling over the next decade? Sure. And that's already been happening. When comparing retail pricing for a Submariner to average wages, the effective cost has doubled since the 1980s. But to dramatically do this overnight? That would look REALLY bad.

The fact is, the Daytona is simply not on par with what the industry offers for $30k retail. It's a great $13k watch. But for Rolex to say "yeah, we think this is a $30k watch" next to a Patek or AP which also have a $30k MSRP, I think that would really blow up in their face.

Also, I keep responding to posts like this looking for any shred of proof of this whole "purposely limiting production" theory. All actual statements from Rolex, ADs, watch journalists, etc. directly contradict this notion. Inventory at ADs is non-existent because demand has gone looney tunes. This is not Rolex "messing this up" IMO. Price gouging or getting sloppy with production just to fill cases would certainly qualify as good ways to tarnish a stellar reputation.

[doboy007]

Apple watch is what got me wearing a watch again and start my Rolex journey so not a bad thing. Maybe not for my wallet :)

[fsprow]

This is one of the reasons Rolex has moved "upmarket" into the luxury area and keep production levels slightly below demand.

[macrowatch]

JCB had this great quote, and I think he says it quite a bit, which is that actually Apple saved the big swiss brands because it got a whole new generation into the habit of wearing watches again, and as those people grow up, they 'upgrade' to Rolex.

Besides, in 30-50 years, wearables will likely migrate future away from the wrist to other AR tech, which frees up the wrist to be the sole domain of status symbols.

[Jack T]

Originally Posted by kg19989

In my opinion, an Apple Watch is just a connection device and health tracker. My Swiss watches are jewelry. Two different markets. As much as I would love the utility of an Apple Watch, I will never give up my stainless steel or white gold for one. Cheers!


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I concur; for people wearing either an Apple watch or a luxury Swiss watch, telling time is not the primary purpose.

[Ganymede]

Originally Posted by BLNR Nairobi

The video below (which has the aforementioned title) is exactly why Rolex (Patek and AP) will not massively increase supply, and why the likes of Omega are moving away from discounts.

https://youtu.be/OArs12Qinl0

.

The comparison being made in this video is obtuse beyond words. It’s like comparing vespas to Ferraris.

The only thing an Apple Watch and a Rolex have in common is the fact that they both tell you the time and date. Beyond that, their intended purposes are radically different.

I wear my Rolex to work and almost everywhere else. It makes a statement about me - and depending on who you ask, it says different things. To some, it says I’m a pretentious jerk who likes to waste money on flashy items. To others, it says I’m a successful fellow who appreciates quality. To others, I says I’m fashionable. For me, it says all of these things. Regardless, it makes a statement.

My Apple Watch says nothing. I wear it to the gym. I bought the thing because I want to stream music while exercising and don’t want to bring my iPhone in with me. Beyond that, the watch is a small, black, rectangular, ugly piece of trash. But at the gym, it gets the job done. I also wear it when I’m working in the yard…. because I want to stream music and because it’s an ugly piece of trash and I don’t care if it gets damaged. I also wear it while biking for the same exact reasons. It is a utilitarian device.

A Vespa and a Ferrari can both move a person from point A to point B, but their intended purposes are quite different.

[Jack T]

Originally Posted by HiBoost

Also, I keep responding to posts like this looking for any shred of proof of this whole "purposely limiting production" theory. All actual statements from Rolex, ADs, watch journalists, etc. directly contradict this notion. Inventory at ADs is non-existent because demand has gone looney tunes. This is not Rolex "messing this up" IMO. Price gouging or getting sloppy with production just to fill cases would certainly qualify as good ways to tarnish a stellar reputation.

Everything I have seen and heard during 2021 supports this position, yet people can not stop making these unfounded declarations about production. My AD believes Rolex is back to 2019, 2018 production levels (his allocations certainly are there), with demand, like you said, through the roof. Don't know why people don't get this.

I'll bet very few people on this website run large manufacturing companies, nor do they conduct economic research, study demographic trends, position luxury brands or manage marketing strategies.

[samson66]

Originally Posted by Ganymede

My Apple Watch says nothing. I wear it to the gym. I bought the thing because I want to stream music while exercising and don’t want to bring my iPhone in with me. Beyond that, the watch is a small, black, rectangular, ugly piece of trash. But at the gym, it gets the job done. I also wear it when I’m working in the yard…. because I want to stream music and because it’s an ugly piece of trash and I don’t care if it gets damaged. I also wear it while biking for the same exact reasons. It is a utilitarian device.

I got a great laugh out of your description of your Apple watch

[Chewbacca]

Originally Posted by HiBoost

But what company in the history of any industry has doubled prices on the same product line? No company that respects its reputation or its customers could get away with that. Gradual doubling over the next decade? Sure. And that's already been happening. When comparing retail pricing for a Submariner to average wages, the effective cost has doubled since the 1980s. But to dramatically do this overnight? That would look REALLY bad.

The fact is, the Daytona is simply not on par with what the industry offers for $30k retail. It's a great $13k watch. But for Rolex to say "yeah, we think this is a $30k watch" next to a Patek or AP which also have a $30k MSRP, I think that would really blow up in their face.

Also, I keep responding to posts like this looking for any shred of proof of this whole "purposely limiting production" theory. All actual statements from Rolex, ADs, watch journalists, etc. directly contradict this notion. Inventory at ADs is non-existent because demand has gone looney tunes. This is not Rolex "messing this up" IMO. Price gouging or getting sloppy with production just to fill cases would certainly qualify as good ways to tarnish a stellar reputation.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ch-supply-glut

https://www.scmp.com/magazines/style...-rolex-snapped

https://www.ablogtowatch.com/how-sca...any-consumers/

The signs are there.

[MiloDiThernan]

Originally Posted by BLNR Nairobi

The video below (which has the aforementioned title) is exactly why Rolex (Patek and AP) will not massively increase supply, and why the likes of Omega are moving away from discounts.

https://youtu.be/OArs12Qinl0

.

3 seconds and I closed it. Look forward to your next post.

[rolexako]

Apple watch = annoying gadget that prevents you from having a conversation with someone who is wearing one.
Also, I wear my Rolex because I love it period. That is all.

[Mendota]

Originally Posted by HiBoost

But what company in the history of any industry has doubled prices on the same product line? No company that respects its reputation or its customers could get away with that. Gradual doubling over the next decade? Sure. And that's already been happening. When comparing retail pricing for a Submariner to average wages, the effective cost has doubled since the 1980s. But to dramatically do this overnight? That would look REALLY bad.

The fact is, the Daytona is simply not on par with what the industry offers for $30k retail. It's a great $13k watch. But for Rolex to say "yeah, we think this is a $30k watch" next to a Patek or AP which also have a $30k MSRP, I think that would really blow up in their face.

Also, I keep responding to posts like this looking for any shred of proof of this whole "purposely limiting production" theory. All actual statements from Rolex, ADs, watch journalists, etc. directly contradict this notion. Inventory at ADs is non-existent because demand has gone looney tunes. This is not Rolex "messing this up" IMO. Price gouging or getting sloppy with production just to fill cases would certainly qualify as good ways to tarnish a stellar reputation.

Originally Posted by Jack T

Everything I have seen and heard during 2021 supports this position, yet people can not stop making these unfounded declarations about production. My AD believes Rolex is back to 2019, 2018 production levels (his allocations certainly are there), with demand, like you said, through the roof. Don't know why people don't get this.

I'll bet very few people on this website run large manufacturing companies, nor do they conduct economic research, study demographic trends, position luxury brands or manage marketing strategies.

You guys are using too much real world logic based on actual professional experience in these areas. Logic plays no role in an emotional endeavor where a buyer has a vested interest in further perpetuating the cycle. They will say anything they can to continue the narrative they have themselves bought into.

I posted this in another one of these ridonkulous threads and I think it's relevant to this conversation, too.

Shiny widgets that are trading hands on a secondary market at multiples of 1.5x or 2x or 3x over acquisition price is absolutely nothing like chasing after a stock/commodity/derivative that is on a run and averaging up your position as you chase the price up higher and higher. There are clear entry and exit strategies involved with that method of trading and the risk is calculable. This is completely different from that. It's just shiny objects that are in high demand and secondary market sellers are seeing how much they can get for them. The sad thing is many newbies are drawn into this with the absurd idea that these shiny widgets are investment vehicles and they too can get in on the profit making, or if they keep it long enough they are going to have the next Paul Newman Daytona sitting in their sock drawer. After having emotionally bought into the narrative, they are going to try to push that rock up a hill as high as they can, but at some point the rock becomes too heavy and it will roll back.

[HiBoost]

Originally Posted by Chewbacca

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ch-supply-glut

https://www.scmp.com/magazines/style...-rolex-snapped

https://www.ablogtowatch.com/how-sca...any-consumers/

The signs are there.

The second two seem to simply lament the lack of availability, I didn't see any suggestion that Rolex was, again, "purposely" limiting production. As far as the first article, I can see how that would legitimately apply to a Tag or Breitling or maybe even an Omega - there is no question that nobody wants a luxury product which everybody else has. But do we actually believe that Rolex looked at the situation 2 years ago and said "people are only having to wait 10 years for a Daytona, and a BLRO is only selling for 2x retail, we really need to stop flooding this market with product!" ??

[Mr. Drunmond]

I know several employees, customers, family members etc who never understood my mechanical watch love. In last 5-7 years all started wearing Apple watches, many have grown tired of always being connected and have started asking advise on where to start, what to buy, etc. I think apple gave the mechanical watch industry a big boost for at least another 25 years.

[superpop]

A Rolex watch is a fashion bauble at this point. Very few are buying one for the utilitarian design or functions as they can do far more with an Apple Watch. I have both and I use both differently. I fly with my GMT, do my daily routine with my SD43 and wear the apple watch when exercising or doing yardwork. Bigger concern around Rolex is the fact that like any other fashion bauble, at some point the bubble pops when trends and tastes change. Rolex has really only been hot for 4-5 years, prior to that they had a few hot models and everything else was available at a discount. The way they have acted lately by allowing the grey market to short circuit their distribution model will be their undoing. When the hype wears off, they will be left with a smaller fan base as they have alienated a lot of the traditional buyers with the current situation. Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered. Seen it a lot over the past 40 years or so.

[Malum]

I wear a Fitbit for fitness tracking when working out , walking and hiking . I wear a real watch all the other time.

[JRell]

Originally Posted by superpop

A Rolex watch is a fashion bauble at this point. Very few are buying one for the utilitarian design or functions as they can do far more with an Apple Watch. I have both and I use both differently. I fly with my GMT, do my daily routine with my SD43 and wear the apple watch when exercising or doing yardwork. Bigger concern around Rolex is the fact that like any other fashion bauble, at some point the bubble pops when trends and tastes change. Rolex has really only been hot for 4-5 years, prior to that they had a few hot models and everything else was available at a discount. The way they have acted lately by allowing the grey market to short circuit their distribution model will be their undoing. When the hype wears off, they will be left with a smaller fan base as they have alienated a lot of the traditional buyers with the current situation.

If fashion bauble means the most popular iconic brand, around since 1905, and has a timeless never go out of style appeal, then I agree.

[2loaded]

Originally Posted by Speedbird-1

The watch industry killed of the sundial market.

Brilliant

[Cambo]

Love the title. The movie (with Brad Pitt) was filmed here in Alberta, some on my buddy's property.

[DJ2020]

I actually wear a watch to tell time, time events 24/7 - 365. I hate having a cell phone with me ALL the time. When I'm working, under water, sleeping no matter what I'm doing I depend on a wrist watch. Always have and always will.

I don't have to charge it, update it, pair it, sync it. It doesn't annoy or interrupt me when I don't want to be bothered and it's never outdated. It's a faithful companion any time I call on it.

For me, I certainly don't need or want a smart watch. I miss the days when the telephone was located on the kitchen wall and the word computer didn't exist. People talked to each other and we knew our neighbors.

I will always have a real watch on my wrist, regardless of social media predictions .

[superpop]

Originally Posted by JRell

If fashion bauble means the most popular iconic brand, around since 1905, and has a timeless never go out of style appeal, then I agree.

I get that they are legendary and stylish. That was not my point, my point was that over the past 4-5 years hype has propelled the brand, that hype is fickle and changes pretty quickly. Levi's are iconic and also have a timeless appeal but they also go through phases of being very expensive only to fall back to earth. Same is true with fashion jewelry. Look at Breitling in the 90's, red hot, or Panerai 10 years ago or so, again red hot. Far too many people have bought into the hype that Rolex is invincible to this and will somehow keep increasing in value.

[Chadridv]

Originally Posted by PhilippeD

"Apple sold more watches than Rolex, Cartier, etc. combined. I believe there is strong evidence that traditional watches will be dead in fifty or twenty years."

I stopped watching after that last sentence.

It's like saying "Volkswagen sold more cars than Ferrari, Porsche, and Bentley combined so I believe there is strong evidence the luxury car market is dead in fifty or twenty years."

Excellent!

[Chadridv]

Originally Posted by Cambo

Love the title. The movie (with Brad Pitt) was filmed here in Alberta, some on my buddy's property.

That’s awesome! Fantastic movie. Very underrated.

[Tavli3]

Originally Posted by PhilippeD

"Apple sold more watches than Rolex, Cartier, etc. combined. I believe there is strong evidence that traditional watches will be dead in fifty or twenty years."

I stopped watching after that last sentence.

It's like saying "Volkswagen sold more cars than Ferrari, Porsche, and Bentley combined so I believe there is strong evidence the luxury car market is dead in fifty or twenty years."

Excellent perspective


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[rolexjackson]

Other than the health benefits smart watches our garbage in my opinion. I’m grateful that they came out and people are really taking to them because it does make people used to wearing a watch. Never in my entire life of wearing a watch if I had more people notice whatever watch I’m wearing but I do these days and I believe that’s because of the smart watch industry.


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[JAEP]

One of my bosses used to wear an Apple Watch. After a few months of wearing it, he threw it in a toilet, saying “this piece of junk just tells I’m late for meetings!”. He bought his first Rolex, Milgauss, and is now drooling on a GMT.

[brandog]

The average apple watch is junk and needs to be replaced every 3-5 years. A swiss watch can be worn for ones lifetime if properly cared for and handed down. Apple might be the #1 watch in sales but they are not in prestigiousness or branding.

[Chewbacca]

I'll always be a watch lover but I'm also a realist. Looking back the last 10 years to see where we were tells me one thing, technology isn't going anywhere and premium watch makers better hedge somehow.

( Also going to resurrect this thread in 10 years if I'm not banned to see how many here will still agree with their comments, myself included. )

[brandog]

Originally Posted by Chewbacca

I'll always be a watch lover but I'm also a realist. Looking back the last 10 years to see where we were tells me one thing, technology isn't going anywhere and premium watch makers better hedge somehow.

( Also going to resurrect this thread in 10 years if I'm not banned to see how many here will still agree with their comments, myself included. )

Luxury watches, specifically Rolex and Patek are doing phenomenal the last 5-10 years and more recently have seen record sales. I don't think they are concerned about Apple watches which on the long timeline of watch horology is only a blip. Thanks to social media such as Instagram and YouTube and America's growing lust for affluence/materialism I think luxury watches will have a bright future.