Govberg asking US$37.5k for LNIB Blue 5711. What is going on?!

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by Tony64

I may be misunderstanding, but to be clear I'm not sure that Patek offers a "partial" service. It's a full service or nothing is what I've always understood. Now maybe they'll just do a polish for you without any service, but once they open the watch I didn't think there was a Chinese menu option..

David at H Stern would have them do a fast look and if all ok they'd polish it to my spec and send it back sealed. This was years ago, maybe Patek has changed their policy? They should still offer it, and was around $250 or so as i recall and took about a week or three, unless i was visiting NYC for a short few day trip and then maybe... but that wasn't the norm. David was so great in service.

[Tz1983]

Originally Posted by beshannon

They can ask anything they like.



What they actually sell it for is a very different matter.

Good point but can you actually buy one now sub 29k usd? (Not primary market)


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[jon_jon]

The USD has weakened ~10% vs the Euro over the past few months, which is a significant currency exchange rate fluctuation over a short time period. It is not related to a significant event like the Brexit announcement in 2016 or the Swiss National Bank decision to remove the CHF per Euro cap back in 2015.

This means that US re-sellers can raise price and still be competitive with their European counterparts. Although $37.5K USD is still high for the US market, prices over €30K in the EU is not unheard of.

[masyv6]

Originally Posted by Magwitch

And their website is filled with the word "deployment." Makes one wonder.

Tells your all you need to know

Originally Posted by sensui

I'd just wait it out after putting some money down at AD. I think it's a cool watch but it's not worth a premium at all...just hyped with availability/marketing...if I get one at msrp cool...if not, plenty of other watches I'd buy before this at the 30k range.

Same for me. The premium is just laughable on this piece, IMO.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by jon_jon

The USD has weakened ~10% vs the Euro over the past few months, which is a significant currency exchange rate fluctuation over a short time period. It is not related to a significant event like the Brexit announcement in 2016 or the Swiss National Bank decision to remove the CHF per Euro cap back in 2015.

This means that US re-sellers can raise price and still be competitive with their European counterparts. Although $37.5K USD is still high for the US market, prices over €30K in the EU is not unheard of.

Excellent point. It's killing me because I have a lot of contacts outside the US

Agree to disagree about the significant event but that has nothing to do with the conversation so let's move on.

[slashd0t]

We can all argue the merit of the 5711 being worth crazy amounts of money, but the reality with this hobby is there is no logic when it comes to value. Watches will be worth what people are willing to pay for them. 100% there is a buyer out there who will pay 37k for this watch - just a reality.

If nothing else, bust out the popcorn and enjoy the ride :)

[Defiancekofb]

Originally Posted by slashd0t

We can all argue the merit of the 5711 being worth crazy amounts of money, but the reality with this hobby is there is no logic when it comes to value. Watches will be worth what people are willing to pay for them. 100% there is a buyer out there who will pay 37k for this watch - just a reality.

If nothing else, bust out the popcorn and enjoy the ride :)

100% agree, either flip the watch and make a few thousand in profit or wear it and you have one of the rarest SS watches on earth on your wrist.

[Murcielagoboy2]

It seems like the "world" has discovered the Nautilus (they couldn't care less about PP's other offerings) and demand has suddenly sky rocketed.Outside of forums like these the only PP that people know about is the Nautilus.

With TS not increasing production (or so he says), they're all hard to get and this 5711 is the hardest because it's the cheapest and most "in reach"- I suppose it's not surprise it should be a premium-to-list watch.

I tell you something though, if TS increases production of the Nautilus to meet demand, he will KILL PP as we know it. It will be a one-watch brand like AP.

[GB-man]

5711 has been in production for a long time. It's not exactly rare. It's just rarely at ADs for sale lately.

[enjoythemusic]

It's very basic supply/demand.

Simply get on every waiting list you can when the item is announced and then sit back and reap the profits when you flip it. The same goes for many luxury items. Even if you don't want it, it doesn't matter at all as once it comes in you have a choice to buy or let the next in line get it.

So get on many lists when item is announced, wait for delivery date(s), then decide if *true* market demand is there to then flip for profit or, if little market interest, pass to next person on waiting list.

So start calling now guys then sit back and wait.

[Tony64]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

It's very basic supply/demand.

Simply get on every waiting list you can when the item is announced and then sit back and reap the profits when you flip it. The same goes for many luxury items. Even if you don't want it, it doesn't matter at all as once it comes in you have a choice to buy or let the next in line get it.

So get on many lists when item is announced, wait for delivery date(s), then decide if *true* market demand is there to then flip for profit or, if little market interest, pass to next person on waiting list.

So start calling now guys then sit back and wait.

Or.... just buy, and sometimes wait, for what you want.
The rest of this seems a bit opportunistic, in my opinion of course.

[RussW]

Originally Posted by Murcielagoboy2

It seems like the "world" has discovered the Nautilus (they couldn't care less about PP's other offerings) and demand has suddenly sky rocketed.Outside of forums like these the only PP that people know about is the Nautilus.

With TS not increasing production (or so he says), they're all hard to get and this 5711 is the hardest because it's the cheapest and most "in reach"- I suppose it's not surprise it should be a premium-to-list watch.

I tell you something though, if TS increases production of the Nautilus to meet demand, he will KILL PP as we know it. It will be a one-watch brand like AP.

I doubt Thierry will increase production. He's made it very clear on many occasions that he is not going that route.

[Defiancekofb]

Originally Posted by Murcielagoboy2

It seems like the "world" has discovered the Nautilus (they couldn't care less about PP's other offerings) and demand has suddenly sky rocketed.Outside of forums like these the only PP that people know about is the Nautilus.

With TS not increasing production (or so he says), they're all hard to get and this 5711 is the hardest because it's the cheapest and most "in reach"- I suppose it's not surprise it should be a premium-to-list watch.

I tell you something though, if TS increases production of the Nautilus to meet demand, he will KILL PP as we know it. It will be a one-watch brand like AP.

Originally Posted by RussW

I doubt Thierry will increase production. He's made it very clear on many occasions that he is not going that route.

5711-2A? 42mm three hand + date Nautilus to compete with the AP RO 15400.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by Defiancekofb

5711-2A? 42mm Nautilus to compete with the AP RO 15400.

That would be miserable if they kept the same old 324 in there

[PJ S]

Originally Posted by Murcielagoboy2

… I tell you something though, if TS increases production of the Nautilus to meet demand, he will KILL PP as we know it. It will be a one-watch brand like AP.

Sorry, but this is absolute nonsense.
Patek has many other models that are sought after, a number of which are application ones, so there’s no likelihood of PP going down the same path as AP.
Moreover, how many extra Nautiluses (in steel) do you reckon it’d take to satiate demand?
My gut instinct tells me it’s unlikely to be any more than 300, but let’s be generous and say it’s 500. Are you saying if Patek reduces production of other less desirable pieces using the same movement(s), that they would suddenly become AP’esque?
Even if it were 1000 pieces, it’s still doable by dropping other pieces pro rata – you’re aware they increased ladies watches (mainly quartz) to 13K this year, up from 11K the previous years?

[RussW]

Originally Posted by Defiancekofb

5711-2A? 42mm three hand + date Nautilus to compete with the AP RO 15400.

I hope not. The Royal Oak was perfect at 39mm, same for the 5711.

Ps "1A" means steel bracelet. "2" in that context doesn't mean anything.

[RussW]

Originally Posted by PJ S

Sorry, but this is absolute nonsense.
Patek has many other models that are sought after, a number of which are application ones, so there’s no likelihood of PP going down the same path as AP.
Moreover, how many extra Nautiluses (in steel) do you reckon it’d take to satiate demand?
My gut instinct tells me it’s unlikely to be any more than 300, but let’s be generous and say it’s 500. Are you saying if Patek reduces production of other less desirable pieces using the same movement(s), that they would suddenly become AP’esque?
Even if it were 1000 pieces, it’s still doable by dropping other pieces pro rata – you’re aware they increased ladies watches (mainly quartz) to 13K this year, up from 11K the previous years?

Can this really be PJ defending Patek

Keep up the good work, I'm enjoying your posts at the moment! We just need Enjoythemusic to join in as well.

[martinr]

42mm steel Nautilus 5980 would make me reconsider owning one.

[goog53]

Originally Posted by RussW

Can this really be PJ defending Patek

Keep up the good work, I'm enjoying your posts at the moment!

PJ is on board the Patek train. Hell has officially frozen over

[HorologyK]

Originally Posted by GB-man

That would be miserable if they kept the same old 324 in there

Keeps the costs down, profits upppp.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Murcielagoboy2]

Originally Posted by PJ S

Sorry, but this is absolute nonsense.
Patek has many other models that are sought after, a number of which are application ones, so there’s no likelihood of PP going down the same path as AP.
Moreover, how many extra Nautiluses (in steel) do you reckon it’d take to satiate demand?
My gut instinct tells me it’s unlikely to be any more than 300, but let’s be generous and say it’s 500. Are you saying if Patek reduces production of other less desirable pieces using the same movement(s), that they would suddenly become AP’esque?
Even if it were 1000 pieces, it’s still doable by dropping other pieces pro rata – you’re aware they increased ladies watches (mainly quartz) to 13K this year, up from 11K the previous years?

Ok - I'll bite (and clarify my position):

So (I think) we agree on something; let's assume that PP increase production of Nautilus. Given that they can barely service a watch in a reasonable time (my 5205G has been away for 9 MONTHS!!), have unprecedented levels of QC issues, you think any increase in production won't hit production levels of the other models? It will. I think we agree.
Sooo, however many more Nautilus (with ANY movement) TS will be making he will be reducing volumes of other PP's. Soon, that will be the only thing you'll find that dealers will want. The increased production of the watch will further incentivise dealers to clamour for more of them. In fact, the only PP that dealers don't have a problem selling today (but DO have a problem stocking) is the Nautilus. As an AD why the hell would I want a 5227 (a lovely watch by the way) instead of 5711 - the first I can't sell for love nor money at the RRP and the second is wait-listed to hell. So you'll have a situation where everything but the Nautilus becomes a hot potato for every dealer (sort of already happening) and AD's start losing interest in even being a dealer for PP and PP are forced to cut non-Nautilus further to make more Nautilus....... making a vicious cycle... end result? Nautilus tourbillions, Nautilus world time, Nautilus everything... Just like AP.

In fact, does Anyone buy an AP which isn't an RO/ROO today? Not really. And I bet their dealers don't have any interest in stocking anything else either. AP have killed themselves with the ROO because the went to satiate demand...(sure they've made money - but why should that matter to a WIS - I'm not a shareholder, I'm a customer).


Oh and where you're dead wrong, is here: What exactly are "many" other models that are "sought after" in the current collection? Do tell.
Which ones are those? Aquanaut, 5131, Pilots and that's about it.
That really is. The rest can be had a discount to list from any AD. Even the GC's are getting killed in the secondary market and this is relevant why? Because it's a clear indication of just how "sought after they are" - they aren't selling at the RRP - they're not sought after.

Come to the UK and there's not a single AD that has stock of ANY Nautilus. Seriously. TS increases Nautilus production to capture the current Nautilus "zeitgiest" and he'll make a lot of money but his company will eventually just make one watch - Something he's said himself....

[martinr]

AP has killed itself with the ROO? Strange argument you are making.

[Murcielagoboy2]

Originally Posted by martinr

AP has killed itself with the ROO? Strange argument you are making.

You are right. That needs clarification.
AP have done very well with the ROO. But they're dependent on just one product. Their whole brand is the ROO and they've KILLED everything else about them.

They've made a lot of money.


I suppose that's all that matters right....?
... To us....
Because we're all shareholders of AP and PP right? Not customers!

[martinr]

It's been mentioned before, is the crazy demand for the Nautilus due to its being hard to get or is it really great and people just can't get enough of the Genta 70's design that looks like an old TV set?

[nyc2la]

Originally Posted by martinr

It's been mentioned before, is the crazy demand for the Nautilus due to its being hard to get or is it really great and people just can't get enough of the Genta 70's design that looks like an old TV set?

It's really great!

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by RussW

We just need Enjoythemusic to join in as well.

Am getting there, but think if i ever revisit Patek will go smartly into the more hand/art items. Have always been open to buying an enamel desk clock, yet so far havent found the design/theme for sale. Music theme, or perhaps planetary / celestial...

Have my vintage Patek Calatrava grail still here for tux events.

So, anyone have a Patek enamel hand decorated desk clock for sale? It'll make Russ happy too

[Murcielagoboy2]

Originally Posted by martinr

It's been mentioned before, is the crazy demand for the Nautilus due to its being hard to get or is it really great and people just can't get enough of the Genta 70's design that looks like an old TV set?

If you're asking me MartinR, I think it's because in the super-flashy, instabrash world we live in today, people have discovered it as the most conspicuous product of the worlds most elite watch brand. The design doesn't matter. It's the best watch (in the world) to show off with.
Hell even classy Connor McGregor has one!

ETA: I'm not slamming the design. I OWN one! Just making my own BS social commentary.

[martinr]

That's what I mean, people want one because everybody else wants one, it means you're in the know. I've had all except the 5726, what I've decided to do to is forget what everyone else thinks, trust my instincts and buy what I like and can afford. I had a 5712, I didn't like it before I bought it, looked at pictures and read all the forum stuff about how great it was, got it and traded it after a couple months, never really liked the blue grey dial and asymmetric layout. If we all liked the same watch it would be pretty boring. Like I said above though I'd probably buy a 42mm 5980 in steel.

[Tony64]

Originally Posted by martinr

It's been mentioned before, is the crazy demand for the Nautilus due to its being hard to get or is it really great and people just can't get enough of the Genta 70's design that looks like an old TV set?

Similar argument could be made for the stainless Daytona. I think it's desirability is fueled largely by its exclusivity.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by Tony64

Similar argument could be made for the stainless Daytona. I think it's desirability is fueled largely by its exclusivity.

Exactly. Keep demand higher than supply. Am waiting for AD calls on the SS Sky with blue dial as Sept seems to be a possibility (but who really knows for sure, its Rolex). Sept, Nov... as long as demand exceeds supply. Added benefit, winter holiday season.