Nautilus prices softening

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by mongrelnomoad

While I agree that the world is flooded with liquidity and fears mean that liquidity (and those bubbles) aren’t going anywhere for now, that is a very very very (very very very) dangerous position to take.

Originally Posted by GB-man

I’ll pass on levering up and deploying as much capital as possible heading into the fall before an election year 10 years into a bull market without a major pullback.

I must have a higher tolerance for pain ;)


No risk no reward

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by locutus49

Leveraging: it is how the rich get richer.

I need to meet some of these people

[GreenLantern]

By the way, obviously prices will soften. Look at the chart. That's a classic irrational exuberance situation.

I'd expect it to adjust down, then up, then down, until it settles a bit.

Unfortunately, because supply is artificially controlled, it won't ever match any proper pattern. But the overall sentiment in the general buying public does feel like irrational exuberance to me.

[Bearxj86]

I only have one thing to say:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eo-KmOd3i7s

Don't worry, its suitable for work.

[locutus49]

Rumor has it you ARE one of these people.

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

I need to meet some of these people

[Mr Naultilus]

About time, but i'm sure it will come back stronger than ever

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by locutus49

Rumor has it you ARE one of these people.

Naw. I live in a small hut. Take the train. Wear droopy underwear. Actually wife bought me a 10 x 3 packs. Lately

Priceless :)

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Mr Naultilus

About time, but i'm sure it will come back stronger than ever

I’m just going to tell u NO.

CNH is going to blow out. And the trade wars prevent them from exporting. And their velocity of money is declining... and their debt is high.


Lots there. But NO

[Mr Naultilus]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

I’m just going to tell u NO.

CNH is going to blow out. And the trade wars prevent them from exporting. And their velocity of money is declining... and their debt is high.


Lots there. But NO

So is that a NO then?

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Mr Naultilus

So is that NO then?

YES. Lol

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

U know the one watch that likely holds up unscathed....?

The 5711a

My view is that
1) it’s the cheapest and is more accessible for most (price wise, ie the daytona trade ups)
2) it’s the one that started this craze.

Agreed.

And agreed with the other comment that it's really just the Blue 5711/1A-010.

It was what propped everything else up, but I genuinely believe it was the only one that was truly in serious demand. People just ended up going to the others, driving up their prices, because they weren't patient enough to wait for a 5711/1A-010 to show up at their AD (years) or at their favorite Grey dealer (months ~> a year).

And then when this happened to all the Nautiluses, the Aquanaut got dragged into it too.

It's all unnatural. I don't even see anyone wearing those watches that they buy at absurd premiums.

And then when I see silly videos like the "investment watches" video by Kevin O'Leary, I shake my head and remember that I was once taught that you identify a bubble when your dentist is giving you advice to invest in a specific security/product/market.

Sounds about right. :)

[BigAppleBill]

The O’Leary peak: when the 5711 officially jumped the shark (tank).

[impinth06]

Originally Posted by BigAppleBill

The O’Leary peak: when the 5711 officially jumped the shark (tank).

Nailed it

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by BigAppleBill

The O’Leary peak: when the 5711 officially jumped the shark (tank).

Originally Posted by impinth06

Nailed it

Haha, wait a minute! Now that you mention it... Prices did start to fall after the Kevin O'Leary YT video hit.

Kevin O'Leary is truly the dentist in this scenario. Wow.

[mongrelnomoad]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

I must have a higher tolerance for pain ;)


No risk no reward

Each to their own, but that’s not my style. All black over all red.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by mongrelnomoad

Each to their own, but that’s not my style. All black over all red.

Who is red?

[lovetherolex]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

Haha, wait a minute! Now that you mention it... Prices did start to fall after the Kevin O'Leary YT video hit.

Kevin O'Leary is truly the dentist in this scenario. Wow.

Just a guy with an outlet pumping up his own “investments”. That’s not far from shark tank.

If he didn’t realize he was the wake up call that’s only because his eyes were on the prize, not thinking about the nautical safety course he missed while he was shooting his youtube video.

[lovetherolex]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Who is red?

What are you trying to inflate your post count?

The fish on your plate is red. Look down it’s right there. And don’t say you’re not eating no one believes you.

[mongrelnomoad]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Who is red?

[pam66]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

YES. Lol

agreed! return to status quo may occur very long term, 5 years or so. not short term. one must be in denial of economic realities to believe a fast recovery of the luxury market. china bad, europe bad, US starting to go bad, mid east in turmoil, what are you guys hoping for? 100K for 5711A? lol......

[mongrelnomoad]

Originally Posted by pam66

agreed! return to status quo may occur very long term, 5 years or so. not short term. one must be in denial of economic realities to believe a fast recovery of the luxury market. china bad, europe bad, US starting to go bad, mid east in turmoil, what are you guys hoping for? 100K for 5711A? lol......

Personally, I hope for any and every watch at MSRP and readily available, or with a reasonable wait, and more importantly, to return to experiences at stores that do not leave me needing to take repeat long showers to wash off the feeling of filth.

Watches are not a sodding asset class for the reasonably wealthy. They’re trinkets. Nothing more. Time will tell.

(Though I disagree in one respect: with the world drowning in liquidity, and central banks pumping in even more, risk assets - each and every one - aren't going anywhere. The world economy's been f-ed for ages, even before all these 'new' headwinds, but that won't change the fact that every Tom Dick and (corporate) Harry can leverage themselves up to the wazoo - banks are being charged to hold deposits, so they want to get rid of them fast - and everyone is desperately searching for somewhere to park their cash. It'll all end in tears, just not yet.)

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by lovetherolex

What are you trying to inflate your post count?

The fish on your plate is red. Look down it’s right there. And don’t say you’re not eating no one believes you.

Originally Posted by mongrelnomoad

Lol. That fish is red... I love red October’s tho... I think that was a movie

[mongrelnomoad]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Lol. That fish is red... I love red October’s tho... I think that was a movie

Hail Comrade ;)

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by mongrelnomoad

Personally, I hope for any and every watch at MSRP and readily available, or with a reasonable wait, and more importantly, to return to experiences at stores that do not leave me needing to take repeat long showers to wash off the feeling of filth.

Watches are not a sodding asset class for the reasonably wealthy. They’re trinkets. Nothing more. Time will tell.

(Though I disagree in one respect: with the world drowning in liquidity, and central banks pumping in even more, risk assets - each and every one - aren't going anywhere. The world economy's been f-ed for ages, even before all these 'new' headwinds, but that won't change the fact that every Tom Dick and (corporate) Harry can leverage themselves up to the wazoo - banks are being charged to hold deposits, so they want to get rid of them fast - and everyone is desperately searching for somewhere to park their cash. It'll all end in tears, just not yet.)

I’m banking on this... = hyper inflation.... what goes up is real assets in the US with lots of debt behind it...which is why I suggested thinking bigger

[mongrelnomoad]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

I’m banking on this... = hyper inflation.... what goes up is real assets in the US with lots of debt behind it...which is why I suggested thinking bigger

lol

So we're on different sides of the gamble. I'm betting on Japan - a long slow deflationary slide...

...

Eventually. :)

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by mongrelnomoad

..to return to experiences at stores that do not leave me needing to take repeat long showers to wash off the feeling of filth.

Gosh, you have the wrong AD's! Or unreasonable expectations?

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by mongrelnomoad

lol

So we're on different sides of the gamble. I'm betting on Japan - a long slow deflationary slide...

...

Eventually. :)

Actually we are on the same side... low rates forever. So real assets provide levered return. The problem with inflation targeting....

The upside in inflation comes when things turn up a little and then u realize there’s too much gasoline in the system.

[mongrelnomoad]

Originally Posted by Russell996

Gosh, you have the wrong AD's! Or unreasonable expectations?

Apart from a few notable exceptions (the wonderful UK Journe retailer William and Son is of particular note), buying a watch is as pleasurable as purchasing a used car.

I refuse to pay the “market prices” of current hot models, but I find the old London greys substantially more pleasant and straightforward environments than ADs and boutiques.

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by mongrelnomoad

Apart from a few notable exceptions (the wonderful UK Journe retailer William and Son is of particular note), buying a watch is as pleasurable as purchasing a used car.

I refuse to pay the “market prices” of current hot models, but I find the old London greys substantially more pleasant and straightforward environments than ADs and boutiques.

Which London Patek AD do you deal with?

[mongrelnomoad]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Actually we are on the same side... low rates forever. So real assets provide levered return. The problem with inflation targeting....

The upside in inflation comes when things turn up a little and then u realize there’s too much gasoline in the system.

Central bankers are like horses with blinkers. They target inflation but only look where they want to look. Every time I see them talking about no/low inflation I laugh a little. I agree about the leveraged return, until it doesn’t provide a return. And when everyone is leveraged, there’s no-one to offload onto when it’s no longer profitable.

It’s an open question as to how serviceable these mark-to-market loans are with even slight rate increases, and at some point the music’s gonna stop and an equilibrium which doesn’t crash the system but doesn’t further inflate the assets will have to be found. Exactly like Japan in the early 90s.

We saw last year how jittery the whole global system is to even a few fractions of a percentage rise in rates. The higher it gets, the nastier it’ll get too.