5711 in a bubble or the new norm?

[peterpl]

5711 and 5980 drop by $20k? CRM seem to think so.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nLywEA6twv4

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by peterpl

5711 and 5980 drop by $20k? CRM seem to think so.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nLywEA6twv4

I think the true market prices are already down 10-15....

[JR16]

Originally Posted by TJMike

Considering there are also unworn 5712 twenty to thirty thousand pounds cheaper on Chrono from sellers with a large number of reviews, the 100k listing means nothing.

Unless those other seller see the 100k listing and bump up their prices


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[benlee]

I think we can expect a correction, but prices aren't going to plunge. Not for PP at least. The supply control is a lot stricter when comes to PP.

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by TJMike

Considering there are also unworn 5712 twenty to thirty thousand pounds cheaper on Chrono from sellers with a large number of reviews, the 100k listing means nothing.

I know, but it's a high water mark.

[rejman]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

You have the BLRO so you can probably relate but i feel the same way about it and the 5711...

When i didn't have it sure maybe I would entertain a premium. Once you own it you know its not worth the premium, and retail is fine. And doing it all over again I would never have chosen the premium route to get it sooner.

Nothing against the watch but people are buying into the idea that its something more than it is. On your wrist that goes away really quick. Still a great watch, but its not the watch driving this, it's the need to buy something you cant get.

The best advice I ever read on this forum by a country mile....

[ufboy73]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

You have the BLRO so you can probably relate but i feel the same way about it and the 5711...

When i didn't have it sure maybe I would entertain a premium. Once you own it you know its not worth the premium, and retail is fine. And doing it all over again I would never have chosen the premium route to get it sooner.

Nothing against the watch but people are buying into the idea that its something more than it is. On your wrist that goes away really quick. Still a great watch, but its not the watch driving this, it's the need to buy something you cant get.

So well said!

The problem is so often you don’t come to those realizations until after the fact and you live with something in the flesh...at least for me

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by JR16

Unless those other seller see the 100k listing and bump up their prices


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Not in this market. Even EWC slashing prices on patek sports and they were always on the high end of pricing.

Try selling a 5712 to a grey dealer today and I bet you get offers in the 55-60k range.

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by sameer222

How's this thread holding up 2 months on? Seems prices are still on the rise...

We are hoping to talk the market down so we can acquire one of these watches at retail. What can it hurt.

[thomaspp]

Mega bubble


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[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by thomaspp

Mega bubble


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Uber

[V25V]

It seems to me that these are sitting quite a bit longer at these prices, I think we are right about at the tipping point. When my 5711R shows up, I'll believe that. Until then, who knows.


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[AK797]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

You have the BLRO so you can probably relate but i feel the same way about it and the 5711...

When i didn't have it sure maybe I would entertain a premium. Once you own it you know its not worth the premium, and retail is fine. And doing it all over again I would never have chosen the premium route to get it sooner.

Nothing against the watch but people are buying into the idea that its something more than it is. On your wrist that goes away really quick. Still a great watch, but its not the watch driving this, it's the need to buy something you cant get.

All true but people always pay more for the internet fantasy than what actually does turn up at 2am in your lonely hotel room.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by AK797

All true but people always pay more for the internet fantasy than what actually does turn up at 2am in your lonely hotel room.

Uh... what shows up at 2am at ur hotel room?

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Uh... what shows up at 2am at ur hotel room?

Lexus

[pam66]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Uh... what shows up at 2am at ur hotel room?

in my current 5 star hotel in south korea a horrible smell of garlic turned up at 2am in the morning......yes, internet fantasy is much better:::))))

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

Lexus

Lol

Originally Posted by pam66

in my current 5 star hotel in south korea a horrible smell of garlic turned up at 2am in the morning......yes, internet fantasy is much better:::))))

I forgot u don’t like Korean bbq and all the garlic smells lol

[ct.matt]

Originally Posted by rejman

The best advice I ever read on this forum by a country mile....

Originally Posted by tyler1980

You have the BLRO so you can probably relate but i feel the same way about it and the 5711...

When i didn't have it sure maybe I would entertain a premium. Once you own it you know its not worth the premium, and retail is fine. And doing it all over again I would never have chosen the premium route to get it sooner.

Nothing against the watch but people are buying into the idea that its something more than it is. On your wrist that goes away really quick. Still a great watch, but its not the watch driving this, it's the need to buy something you cant get.

Well said! I've never paid more than retail for the watch and even at retail prices the excitement is rather fleeting and wears off pretty quick. I can't imagine paying 2-3x retail for a current production watch and the overwhelming potential for disappointment.

[ohforpetesakes]

Simple economics....as long as demand outstrips supply prices will hold. If everyone moves from dress watches to sports that would.imply more demand and fixed supply.

[Codik]

There are 120 “unworn” 5711-As currently on sale on C24. That’s probably more than can sell at the current inflated price. My guess is the bubble will burst sooner rather than later.

[GB-man]

There is an even worse bubble in the oyster perpetual market. Very sad.


https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=693076

[S``]

Originally Posted by Codik

There are 120 “unworn” 5711-As currently on sale on C24. That’s probably more than can sell at the current inflated price. My guess is the bubble will burst sooner rather than later.

You do realize that only a fraction of these are ready stock?

You could put up a stock picture and get any watches listed on c24.

It ain't magic

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[S``]

Originally Posted by GB-man

There is an even worse bubble in the oyster perpetual market. Very sad.





https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=693076

He's just trying to create his own market there lol... A++ for effort

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[AAP8]

Originally Posted by S``

You do realize that only a fraction of these are ready stock?

You could put up a stock picture and get any watches listed on c24.

It ain't magic

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True - but 93 of those watches are listed as available now - so at least 50 of them have to be real watches.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by thomaspp

Mega bubble

The only thing you want once you have megabubble is... MORE MEGABUBBLE.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by ohforpetesakes

Simple economics....as long as demand outstrips supply prices will hold. If everyone moves from dress watches to sports that would.imply more demand and fixed supply.

[Bearxj86]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

The only thing you want once you have megabubble is... MORE MEGABUBBLE.

Its like Unreal Tournament - goes from

Double Kill - 2 kills
Multi Kill - 3 kills
Mega Kill - 4 kills
Ultra Kill - 5 kills
Monster Kill - 6 kills
Ludicrous Kill - 7 kills
HOLY S**T - 8+ kills

So using this logic, the bubble is only halfway if it is MegaBubble and the next stage is "Ultra-Bubble" followed by "Monster Bubble".

1) Double bubble
2) Multi-bubble
3) MEGa BUBBLE
4) Ultra-Bubble
5) Monster Bubble
6) Ludicrous Bubble
7) Holy S**T

[S``]

Originally Posted by AAP8

True - but 93 of those watches are listed as available now - so at least 50 of them have to be real watches.

That's not a good proxy. Having a real picture vs stock picture is.

If you listen to a dealer like Roman Sharf... "Available now" just meant that they can source it from the open market or wholesale from other dealers "now"... It doesn't mean all of them "hold stocks"...

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[GreenLantern]

Looks like a lot of the brand new 5711/1A-010's have actual photos:

https://www.chrono24.com/search/inde...ue&sortorder=0

The number is definitely below 50, but still a fairly high number.

[Codik]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

Looks like a lot of the brand new 5711/1A-010's have actual photos:

https://www.chrono24.com/search/inde...ue&sortorder=0

The number is definitely below 50, but still a fairly high number.

And the number keeps growing. My guess is a lot of people are holding/buying to resale. When prices start going down, they will go down fast.