Is vintage collecting a dying hobby?

[HilaryTenzing]

Originally Posted by MorningTundra

You raise the issue of the vintage 911... you're spot on with the parallels. I know which would give me more pleasure and more utility. If I cashed out of my watch collection, I could probably just about get into a beat up 968. Unfortunately, I don't have a deposit box big enough to park it in.

None of these vintage and antique collectables are fungible. So when the correction inevitably comes, we'll be left owning pennies on the dollar. The question will be weather you'll still love to wear and drive these things and whether your kids will want them after you're done with them.

I think when analyzing the current market, there are a lot of moving parts. (The answer to the question you are all about to ask is, Yes). You can't discount the economy, disposable income, speculation, watches as symbols of success or status (still), the desire for quality and craftsmanship, watches as a style accessory etc. Some of this affects the younger generations, too. By all rational measures, mechanical watches should have died out years ago (another Yes), but they're still around. I don't have insight. I just know I bought my first Rolex ever this month, and then another one, both vintage. And I'm in my 50s.

[Vincent65]

Originally Posted by HilaryTenzing

I just know I bought my first Rolex ever this month, and then another one, both vintage. And I'm in my 50s.

= Nostalgia

[Comex5514_]

Stop overthinking guys, life is too short to worry about all the possible scenarios what could, would, should happen in the future :) Just enjoy this hobbie while we can

[sillo]

Seems extremely low for a PN. Am i missing something?

[stmoore]

Originally Posted by sillo38

Seems extremely low for a PN. Am i missing something?

I was thinking the same.

[77T]

The hammer price is true: https://www.phillips.com/detail/ROLEX/NY080118/13



Perhaps several points in the watch itself were not original?


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[roh123]

Lume shows earlier problems. Not very good condition at all. The one with less provenance fetched a stronger price as it was nicer. Overall Daytonas are cooling off a bit and condition is everything.

[1665fan]

Still seems cheap for a PN. Vintage In the 5-20k range is going up steady but some of the higher priced stuff is cooling off that’s for sure.

[roh123]

Originally Posted by 1665fan

Still seems cheap for a PN. Vintage In the 5-20k range is going up steady but some of the higher priced stuff is cooling off that’s for sure.

Guess what is next to correct. :)

[ROLEXSWE]

It seems like collecting watches (especially Vintage watches) is mostly for speculating and money making these days

[sillo]

We also had this

This



And this



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[rmlovett1]

Originally Posted by roh123

Guess what is next to correct. :)

Are you thinking 4digit Daytonas? It seems like ....I’m no expert, I just keep watching trends lately...the 4 digit Daytona & 4 digit subs are at least leveling off?

[roh123]

Originally Posted by Richris1

Are you thinking 4digit Daytonas? It seems like ....I’m no expert, I just keep watching trends lately...the 4 digit Daytona & 4 digit subs are at least leveling off?

Daytonas are already softening. With PNs of less quality dropping a lot I think it is a sign that most things in lesser quality may move down. Even if prices in general always is high in NY we already saw softer prices for less than great examples in Geneva. Very rare items still fetched high prices but most Rolex sports watches aren’t rare in general.

Personally I think the market correcting a bit is healthy. Prices can’t move up 20% annually forever. It is still not a sign of the market dying. It is just maturing which in my opinion is good.

[bazamu]

Originally Posted by roh123

Personally I think the market correcting a bit is healthy. Prices can’t move up 20% annually forever. It is still not a sign of the market dying. It is just maturing which in my opinion is good.

Ding ding. Agree with this completely. Price separation based on quality is the sign of a mature market (rather than people paying top dollar for average examples, which has happened across many brands in the past 3-4 years).

[thomaspp]

Originally Posted by roh123

Daytonas are already softening. With PNs of less quality dropping a lot I think it is a sign that most things in lesser quality may move down. Even if prices in general always is high in NY we already saw softer prices for less than great examples in Geneva. Very rare items still fetched high prices but most Rolex sports watches aren’t rare in general.



Personally I think the market correcting a bit is healthy. Prices can’t move up 20% annually forever. It is still not a sign of the market dying. It is just maturing which in my opinion is good.

Christie’s ny quite soft my friend.... I bid on a few lots and was watching closely. Catch up separately. Best


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[stmoore]

Originally Posted by Richris1

Are you thinking 4digit Daytonas? It seems like ....I’m no expert, I just keep watching trends lately...the 4 digit Daytona & 4 digit subs are at least leveling off?

I think you should split gilt and matte 4 digit subs. Prime gilt subs are still bringing crazy money.

I also am starting to see a greater appreciation for nice, but not perfect watches (this doesn’t mean shitty). Similar to car collecting where the imperfection is almost coveted. It’s character and is found on the back side of Beaumont’s collecting arch.

[roh123]

Early subs are for sure the new hype.

Christies didn’t follow Phillips. Pretty interesting indeed.

[MorningTundra]

Originally Posted by stmoore

...Beaumont’s collecting arch.

What’s this?




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[jfmiii]

Originally Posted by sillo38

Seems extremely low for a PN. Am i missing something?

agreed extremely low given the provenance. a watch given to the 1969 Daytona winner, who also competed in the 1969 Indianapolis 500. the 6062 Christies last night was extremely soft, imo, hammering at $1.3mm. the Bubble Blower himself, Philipp Stahl was predicting >$2mm and chastising posters to his IG account who predicted hammers in the low 1mm range. A red 1680 at under 16k hammer? we've definitely hit a top imo. time will tell whether the market is just taking a breather or this is the start of something bigger.

[roh123]

Important to know is that the estimate on the 6062 was crazy high. It selling at 1.3m is a record by a longshot. Some people try to normalize huge numbers like saying that the Phillips BC should hit 1m and this 6062 2m+. There is of course an agenda for this but many results are still strong even if they don’t reach some peoples predictions.

Quality on the last couple of years auctions have been insane. What we saw in Geneva and now in NY is not really on the same level as we gotten used to. Great pieces are tucked away and lesser quality is now being sold. That is also a part of the market softening. I am speaking overall; there’s still some great pieces being sold.

[dexvd]

Originally Posted by jfmiii

agreed extremely low given the provenance. a watch given to the 1969 Daytona winner, who also competed in the 1969 Indianapolis 500. the 6062 Christies last night was extremely soft, imo, hammering at $1.3mm. the Bubble Blower himself, Philipp Stahl was predicting >$2mm and chastising posters to his IG account who predicted hammers in the low 1mm range. A red 1680 at under 16k hammer? we've definitely hit a top imo. time will tell whether the market is just taking a breather or this is the start of something bigger.

I have mentioned this previously in other discussions of the vintage watch market but the financial markets have been very strong over the last few years. What happens to the luxury markets or more specifically the vintage watch collecting market when the financial markets take a down turn. How will that effect the flow of money in and out of the vintage watch collecting market?

I haven't been in this hobby long enough to have experience of how 2008-2009 effected values but I am sure there are other more experienced collectors that have been involved in this hobby through several market downturns to know how the hobby may be effected.
The other thing I wonder is if there were hobby collecting or luxury markets that took a down turn with the last recession, that never really recovered.

[michael23]

Originally Posted by sillo38

Seems extremely low for a PN. Am i missing something?

I would say its because of the condition. The difference can be huge between a top example compared to an average one. Recently a good 6239 PN was sold for around 340k usd at Christies auction.

Personally I haven't seen any softening of PN prices or any vintage watches. Perhaps it's just a case of good examples increasing price at a faster rate than half good examples because people are giving more importance to condition than in the past, but they are all still generally going up.

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by dexvd

I have mentioned this previously in other discussions of the vintage watch market but the financial markets have been very strong over the last few years. What happens to the luxury markets or more specifically the vintage watch collecting market when the financial markets take a down turn. How will that effect the flow of money in and out of the vintage watch collecting market?

I haven't been in this hobby long enough to have experience of how 2008-2009 effected values but I am sure there are other more experienced collectors that have been involved in this hobby through several market downturns to know how the hobby may be effected.
The other thing I wonder is if there were hobby collecting or luxury markets that took a down turn with the last recession, that never really recovered.

Every collectable field took a big hit in 2009 and with the exception of watches, jewelry and modern and contemporary art and, maybe, cars, none of them ever recovered. Today, most people only want things that are wearable and that includes the ubiquitous tattoos.

[stmoore]

Originally Posted by cascavel

Every collectable field took a big hit in 2009 and with the exception of watches, jewelry and modern and contemporary art and, maybe, cars, none of them ever recovered. Today, most people only want things that are wearable and that includes the ubiquitous tattoos.

I’ve heard that many higher end examples dropped around 50%. These were on mint watches.

I had just started thinking about a nice watch and remember all the additional FS postings.

[roh123]

Originally Posted by stmoore

I’ve heard that many higher end examples dropped around 50%. These were on mint watches.

I had just started thinking about a nice watch and remember all the additional FS postings.

Yes. Things took a big hit for sure like you say. It did however recover fairly quickly.

There is a podcast with Eric Ku on Hodinkee where he talks about this. Quite interesting.

An interesting point on this topic is that prices always move up and down. There are countless examples of high-end pieces bought as investment that actually sold lower than it was bought for some years earlier. Sometimes people just look at standard sports watches and think it is automatic that prices continue up. Sometimes they do and sometimes they don’t. Prices moving down does not mean the market is crashing. It just reflects current trends. Things can’t appreciate 15-20% annually forever.

[RC2]

Everything moves to the average overtime lol.


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[Amanubis]

Agreed. It boils down to the basics at the end of the day - condition, scarcity and market trends. In the long run, the value of watches that tick these boxes will rise, as they are wont to do.

That said, I would be keen to see how a few bubbles fare. 5711 and 5712s for example, as well as Zenith Daytonas, and possibly even the modern GMTs (BLNR and BLRO) - all gone slightly out of whack in the recent years IMHO!

[jfmiii]

Originally Posted by dexvd

The other thing I wonder is if there were hobby collecting or luxury markets that took a down turn with the last recession, that never really recovered.

Muscle cars.

[Aceldama]

Buy what you love and you’ll never be disappointed. Buy for investment? Best of luck.


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[Danj338]

[QUOTE=springer;8952488]

Originally Posted by MorningTundra

Have you seen what a NOS Gameboy with B&P changes hands for these days? Or a mint 1st Gen iPod?
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No I haven't.

Me either and I have a newish 1st gen iPod that was a gift that I never used.