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Old 20 March 2020, 11:46 PM   #1
WatchNutcase
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SS Sports Models Coming back to MSRP

Just a little prediction from me. I'm pretty sure we're going to be seeing all Rolex at MSRP in the coming 6 months. Literally everyone I know is in the process of loosing jobs, and those with businesses are reporting massive drops in income.

On top of that, I received a call from my AD a few days ago, frantically asking me if I was interested in buying 2 SS sports model that usually have significant wait times. His voice was stressed, and I have a feeling I wasn't the first call he made. Some people are turning down these watches now even at MSRP.

We're going through a pandemic here that hasn't even really began, and it has already halted the economy.

Once Rolex factories are back in full production most people will not be in the position to buy a Rolex, and I think we might see a flood of watches come through.

This is my opinion, what's yours?
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Old 20 March 2020, 11:47 PM   #2
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Lol daytona at retail....not April fools yet
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Old 20 March 2020, 11:49 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by 1665fan View Post
Lol daytona at retail....not April fools yet
If you bought a Daytona over retail, it's essentially like buying an overvalued stock right before a market crash. You better hold!

In all seriousness, this isn't an April fools joke, just take a look at whats happening in the world.
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Old 20 March 2020, 11:52 PM   #4
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Same hype pricing happened prior to 2008, wasn’t as extreme as 2018/2019, but people were buying just for flipping. Forward to 2012-2015, you were able to buy a BLNR in 2015 with a 10% discount. Same spectators who make no provisions for a downturn will disappear and people that were willing to buy hype pieces will turn around and say “its just not worth it right now.”
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Old 21 March 2020, 12:07 AM   #5
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I hope your predictions come true...would love to buy at or below MSRP ;)
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Old 21 March 2020, 12:13 AM   #6
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Market conditions will dictate, Ive never met someone who can accurately predict the outcome of anything and this time we are in uncharted waters. My guess, hold on, when this is all behind us, the market for things will go crazy!
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Old 21 March 2020, 12:15 AM   #7
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It’s about time
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Old 21 March 2020, 12:20 AM   #8
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OP, I think your doom and gloom forecast is not supported by the facts. I don't place any credibility on your predictions. BTW the economy is not "halted."
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Old 21 March 2020, 12:22 AM   #9
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BTW the economy is not "halted."
Yeah, decimated is more like it
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Old 21 March 2020, 12:23 AM   #10
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Touché my friend. You got that right, Its very hard to resist though ig you get that call you have been waiting on.
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Old 21 March 2020, 12:25 AM   #11
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OP, I think your doom and gloom forecast is not supported by the facts. I don't place any credibility on your predictions. BTW the economy is not "halted."

This


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Old 21 March 2020, 12:27 AM   #12
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I hope to be able to have a better selection, and to actually try on watches in person rather than admire from photos. I moved a few short blocks to my AD (well, I bought 1 watch so far), and got to know them. They are so kind and awesome to me.

Rents here are some of the highest in the US, if not the world. If inventory is sitting, I don’t see them surviving. And I wouldn’t want to see that happen to them.

I feel confident that once I decide what I want next, I will be able to get it with this softer market. I don’t necessarily want to wait for conditions to change, because in the end 1 watch isn’t going to change my life.
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Old 21 March 2020, 12:27 AM   #13
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OP, I think your doom and gloom forecast is not supported by the facts. I don't place any credibility on your predictions. BTW the economy is not "halted."
It's not really doom and gloom lol, just reality at the moment? Plus this is a fun prediction don't take it so seriously.

If the economy is not "halted" for you, then do you just consider it a minor set back?
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Old 21 March 2020, 12:28 AM   #14
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Yeah, decimated is more like it
+1 x 1000. Not halted??
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Old 21 March 2020, 12:28 AM   #15
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BTW the economy is not "halted."[/QUOTE]

Not that I believe everything that Goldman Sachs say but their chief economist said that GDP will be -6% in Q 1 and -24% in Q 2. If that is not halted, I don't know what is. They also predicted the UE rate to go up to 9%.
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Old 21 March 2020, 12:30 AM   #16
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I doubt that prices will come down any time soon, exports of watches out of Switzerland was down over 9% in February, in March that drop will be even greater. If the watches aren't getting exported then it is going to be even harder to get a watch, that may push watch prices even higher.

However, I would guess that most people are focused on the health of themselves and their immediate families rather than an unnecessary bit of jewellery.

I wonder whether people's priorities will have changed when this pandemic is over?
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Old 21 March 2020, 12:31 AM   #17
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It’s about time
Corona's time
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Old 21 March 2020, 12:32 AM   #18
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Interesting times ahead. I've been 'waiting for the call' for two years, and I'm not sure I'll pull the trigger if it does come in. Far more important things to plan for with this uncertainty. I also suspect we will see a return to much lower secondary market watch prices as a result of the economic fallout.
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Old 21 March 2020, 12:36 AM   #19
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Originally Posted by Oxfordian View Post
I doubt that prices will come down any time soon, exports of watches out of Switzerland was down over 9% in February, in March that drop will be even greater. If the watches aren't getting exported then it is going to be even harder to get a watch, that may push watch prices even higher.

However, I would guess that most people are focused on the health of themselves and their immediate families rather than an unnecessary bit of jewellery.

I wonder whether people's priorities will have changed when this pandemic is over?
How do you know export of watches was down 9% in Feb, when everything was BAU in Feb?
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Old 21 March 2020, 12:46 AM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WatchNutcase View Post
If you bought a Daytona over retail, it's essentially like buying an overvalued stock right before a market crash. You better hold!

In all seriousness, this isn't an April fools joke, just take a look at whats happening in the world.
Not going to happen.It is wishful thinking on your part if you think people are going to be able to pick up sought after SS pieces at knock down prices.
Nothing will change.
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Old 21 March 2020, 01:00 AM   #21
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Not going to happen.It is wishful thinking on your part if you think people are going to be able to pick up sought after SS pieces at knock down prices.
Nothing will change.
I agree it is wishful thinking, but I also think it's an actual possibility once the majority of people start to grasp what is happening to the economy. The UK might be the last place to see such a change, but I think we would be more likely see it happen in less populous countries.
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Old 21 March 2020, 01:03 AM   #22
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I agree with you and I think we will see this by summer. Grey market dealers are paying considerably less for 116500 (still paying above retail but nowhere near where they were some months ago). Eventually greys will stop buying and the liquidity in the market is done for....
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Old 21 March 2020, 01:05 AM   #23
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How do you know export of watches was down 9% in Feb, when everything was BAU in Feb?
E-mail from Monochrome Watches advising that the FHS (Swiss Watch Federation) has announced that exports contracted by 9.2% in February.
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Old 21 March 2020, 01:06 AM   #24
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I believe when we have turned the virus corner, demand will be extremely strong and supply has been reduced by plant shutdowns. This in a free market generally means higher prices.


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Old 21 March 2020, 01:10 AM   #25
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E-mail from Monochrome Watches advising that the FHS (Swiss Watch Federation) has announced that exports contracted by 9.2% in February.
I think that has more to do with demand in South East Asia falling off a cliff and not really with the current coronavirus and the associated economic downturn. Which I personally think confirms that the “hype” value is gone and most speculators will move on to something else.
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Old 21 March 2020, 01:15 AM   #26
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Market conditions will dictate, Ive never met someone who can accurately predict the outcome of anything and this time we are in uncharted waters. My guess, hold on, when this is all behind us, the market for things will go crazy!
Exactly right
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Old 21 March 2020, 01:16 AM   #27
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E-mail from Monochrome Watches advising that the FHS (Swiss Watch Federation) has announced that exports contracted by 9.2% in February.
Quote Monochrome Watches:
Declines were seen in all sectors. They were extremely marked in the CHF 200-500 (export price) range, which fell by more than half. Below CHF 200 and between CHF 500 and 3,000, export turnover declined by 18%. The damage was limited for watches priced over CHF 3,000, which remained at almost the same level as last year.
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Old 21 March 2020, 01:16 AM   #28
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I believe when we have turned the virus corner, demand will be extremely strong and supply has been reduced by plant shutdowns. This in a free market generally means higher prices.


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This is an interesting perspective, although I don't think this would happen quickly. Perhaps 1 or 2 years down the road after the pandemic once the economy recovers.

Rolex's slow down in production will not affect immediate supply, but maybe 6 months to 1 year later we will see the impact. This is a company that plans far in advance and may possibly have all of this years stock already produced and ready to ship out.
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Old 21 March 2020, 01:21 AM   #29
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The price come back to MRSP will be for sure!

With so many people who loose there jobs I think all they think very good when spend money on a watch.
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Old 21 March 2020, 01:22 AM   #30
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OP, so you feel your doom and gloom predictions are fun?

Ignore list...
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