Talking Stocks 2.0

[JParm]

Originally Posted by SackLVG

Just dove headfirst into Southwest and Delta. I don't know, I might need a parachute in 6 months.

Originally Posted by MichaelFlash

Southwest may be a good buy...I was thinking about it as well

I'm still not touching the airlines. While they may come back up eventually, what's to say they don't end up like a Ford at $5?

I just feel that there's too many other opportunities that will make rise faster when compared to the airline industry.

Just my thoughts, and I do wish you guys luck on those stocks.

[bryan13]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

I'm still not touching the airlines. While they may come back up eventually, what's to say they don't end up like a Ford at $5?

I just feel that there's too many other opportunities that will make rise faster when compared to the airline industry.

Just my thoughts, and I do wish you guys luck on those stocks.

I am staying away as well, though if I was to buy one it would be Southwest. Just not sure they will be able to fill any of their planes for the next few years.

[RyanO]

I have traded in and out of airlines for years. They finally bit me, and I closed my positions a while ago. Normally, I'd be backing up the truck here, but even I'm not touching them. Agreed with others, there are just better opportunities out there and at this point I'm trying to focus on investing in quality companies with healthy balance sheets and better growth prospects. Air travel will return, but how will these companies look by the time it does?

On another note, interesting article that I tend to agree with:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/an...?mod=home-page

[beshannon]

Markets trading sideways here, slightly down but not with any conviction

Not finding anything to buy/sell to day so I am just watching

[Dusko.Popov]

I think there are quality companies with [relatively] good balance sheets in the airline sector - Southwest.

I’m in the airlines for a lot.

I’m fact, I’m in most of the industries hardest hit by this Coronavirus: airlines, restaurants, cruiselines.

There is always “the sky is falling” crowd. The “this time it’s gonna be different” contingent.

No it’s not.

And then we get far enough away from the moment and people realize that the chances that airlines were going to dilute to insignificance, or that people stop traveling, or stop eating out, or that masks and temp checks are going to stop people from enjoying the beach or summer sun, or going on cruises, was always infinitesimally small.

People forget that all these companies are vehicles to facilitate people doing what they wanted to do then and will want to do even more now - spend money and luxuriate.

There is no ‘brave new world’ here. Just good companies undervalued because people are afraid to live.

I remember the “airlines will never be the same” crap in the fall of 2001. I remember with sars commentators (probably with short interest) saying that airlines will be one of the hardest hit sectors.

Human beings are remarkably adept and finding their way back to normal. And leisure, recreation and entertainment, will always be a part of that.

Hope that everyone is being safe and taking advantage of these coupons.

[YYZed]

Originally Posted by MichaelFlash

Southwest may be a good buy...I was thinking about it as well

Same, especially since they’re purely domestic. Figure domestic travel may get it’s act together more quickly than international.
Edit: Sorry, mostly domestic

[Bearxj86]

I have token amounts in a few airlines, Hilton, Marriot and "JETS" - an airline ETF. It represents less than 5% of my portfolio.

[JParm]

Surprising end to the day after being it being down all day, especially with not much good news.

Did add to my position in PINS earlier this morning and I'm looking forward to the earnings call tomorrow afternoon. This is still one of the ones to watch, in my opinion. Lots of opportunity for Pinterest to grow due to COVID.

[YYZed]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mar...0-ADEBCF1A58C2

A bit of an impeding black cloud, though we’re dealing with a different mechanism than the 2000 dot com situation.

I think pulling retirement out and into cash is a strong statement to give one pause.

[cornerstore]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Surprising end to the day after being it being down all day, especially with not much good news.

Did add to my position in PINS earlier this morning and I'm looking forward to the earnings call tomorrow afternoon. This is still one of the ones to watch, in my opinion. Lots of opportunity for Pinterest to grow due to COVID.

Only question now is, when will the market transition from the surprised phase to the emperor has no clothes embarrassing phase. The more money an overhyped massive or no p/e company is losing the more it is valued in this market. The more it is overvalued the more it is shorted and then it becomes easier to manipulate using current monetary juicing tactics. Shorts should just retreat and let the market fold like a cheap suit.

[mat_787]

any thoughts on RACE (Ferrari) for the more seasoned investors? I've been watching it for a few weeks but can't comprehend the movement it's been on. I guess similar to the overall market, continues to go against the grain.

[RyanO]

I'm long two refiners (Valero and Phillips 66) and am looking to add to those positions on a pullback. This article today has validated my investment thesis for these companies.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/356857...asoline-season

Just thought I'd share for anyone else who might be interested.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by RyanO

I'm long two refiners (Valero and Phillips 66) and am looking to add to those positions on a pullback. This article today has validated my investment thesis for these companies.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/356857...asoline-season

Just thought I'd share for anyone else who might be interested.

I also own PSX and have been telling colleagues about it lately as well. Huge fan.

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

I also own PSX and have been telling colleagues about it lately as well. Huge fan.

You’re a good coworker haha.

PSX has only come on my radar recently. Do you have a target price you would consider adding more at?

My position here is much smaller than Valero for now.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[JParm]

Originally Posted by RyanO

You’re a good coworker haha.

PSX has only come on my radar recently. Do you have a target price you would consider adding more at?

My position here is much smaller than Valero for now.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Haha, we were all pilots / served on the same aircraft carrier a few years back before most of us got out, so they're actually friends and not colleagues.

My avg. is right around $57. Post-earnings last week it dipped below $70, only to shoot right back above it today. I think adding at $70 will still put you in good shape in 6-12 months. Only reason why I'm not adding more is because I'm happy with my current state in the stock and want to further add to smaller positions within my portfolio (e.g. CRM, MSFT, etc.).

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Haha, we were all pilots / served on the same aircraft carrier a few years back before most of us got out, so they're actually friends and not colleagues.

My avg. is right around $57. Post-earnings last week it dipped below $70, only to shoot right back above it today. I think adding at $70 will still put you in good shape in 6-12 months. Only reason why I'm not adding more is because I'm happy with my current state in the stock and want to further add to smaller positions within my portfolio (e.g. CRM, MSFT, etc.).

Appreciate your insights. I’d like to add to MSFT as well.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[beshannon]

Energy is getting my interest as well

Classic trading range scenario, good news/bad news keeping trading subdued.

I do not expect much movement either way after earnings, until we see the results of business opening up.

https://www.thestreet.com/markets/5-t

[Dusko.Popov]

Decided to reit.

Going 250 shares of spg and stor.

Spg has properties in very enticing locations. Probably the best location set for people who want to spend money.

Been researching stor for the last week. Nice product mix. They’ve diversified beyond retail property into medical facilities, office space, etc. good hedge.

Despite the fear of reit, I think both are in a good position to weather this asymmetrical threat.

Good luck to all.

[beshannon]

I took a small position in STOR a few weeks ago, their balance sheet is good and they have the ability to allow tenants to delay payments, I think it is a good hold as the economy ramps back up. I am not adding unless it goes lower again.

[beshannon]

Some fresh ideas here with analysis

https://www.investors.com/market-tre...ew-buy-points/

I already have MSFT, AAPL and SBUX, SWKS has moved away from my buy point

250MM to buy on the open, will need to see how big the fade is into 10 am. Sentiment is shifting and the calls for a yet to happen bottom are keeping me on the cautiously bullish side

[JParm]

Took my profits on VZ and CSCO, as I'm looking for more growth stocks vs. dividends.

CRM remains high on the list.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Took my profits on VZ and CSCO, as I'm looking for more growth stocks vs. dividends.

CRM remains high on the list.

CRM is a long term hold for me, I have a half position that is all profit

Solid open is holding, markets at the highs for the day, broad buying with people focusing on what will do well and what can do well as the economy reopens

Oil is higher and that is helping energy although I am not sure how much will change at these price levels

I am looking at GILD again as it is holding at ~79 and is below my last sell and may not go lower, 3.4% yield here and their pipeline is strong even without the COVID bump for Remdesivir that they are giving away

[JParm]

Added to my position in ALXN. Down 5%, coupled with the acquisition of Portola makes it a good day to add. I think this will only make them stronger.

[beshannon]

Averaged down slightly in UPS, becoming a long term hold for me especially with a yield at 4.5%

Markets holding up nicely, slightly off the highs, need to see where we are at 2 pm

[Frontier]

A few TRF members have asked me to comment on here. I am a managing partner of a venture capital firm. My analysts research companies based on a number of factors - institutional ownership, available free cash, P/E multiple, outstanding debt, rank in sector, sector analysis, relative value, RSI, Bollinger Bands, OB/OS, and option activity. After reading 81 pages of content I am proceeding with a few of my own thoughts.
From a 30,000 foot view I believe we are headed into another turbulent period later this month. While I am in the camp that I think we have tested the lows (for now) I believe investors should be at least in 50% cash and be prepared to buy on what could be some rather quick dips in later May through July. If investors are sitting in losses they should remain disciplined and focused on their long term objectives, but for those with cash they should be more selective than ever in what they are purchasing.
To start, look around at the behaviors and habits of society. Where are people spending money? AMZN, TGT, WMT, CVS, DG, DLTR, COST, BJ, KR, and others. Paper towels are now more valuable than Panerais, Toilet Paper more than Tag Heuers, and Wesson oil much more valuable than West Texas Intermediate. This Food & Drug/Discretionary sector has become the sector to build wealth. Some of these companies have little debt, low P/E ratios, and very strong analyst's outlooks. I like them all, but love AMZN even though it trades at 112X earnings.
In the Industrial/Defense sector I like GD and LHX. Both are loved by the analysts, have manageable debt, low P/Es, and are owned almost exclusively by institutional investors.
I am not a fan of financials, but believe that BAC and JPM are best positioned for the economic slowdown. This crisis has none of the characteristics of the Great Recession so I don't believe the banks face any immediate risks, however aside from decent dividends I am not convinced financials will benefit the same as Consumer Finance companies like PYPL and V.
High level, I have already sold anything associated with travel and hospitality. I am not (nor have I ever been) a fan of the commercial airline industry. I also don't like hotels, movie theaters, cruise ships, oil exploration, and wouldn't recommend buying them unless they are first lien debt plays on the cheap.
My core positions are in AMZN, ABT, ADBE, BABA, GOOGL, HD, JNJ, MDLZ, MSFT, NVDA, PYPL, SAFM, UNH, V, and ZBH, and GLD and SLV for precious metals.
I have ancillary positions in AAPL, AKAM, AMAT, CMG, COST, CRM, CSCO, CVS, DHR, EW, GD, ISRG, KMI, LYFT, NSRGY, NVS, PG, SAP, SIEGY, TWLO.
I am trying to acquire TTWO (below $115) , GWPH (below $95), VRTX (below $225), NFLX (below $350) and DIS (below $80).
If the virus spirals out of control in the fall of 2020, I believe we will retest the lows (target 1850 on the S&P). I am hope full that herd immunity prevails and we have seen and experienced the worst, but like the Spanish Flu a century ago the second leg would feel much worse than the first.
I do believe the damage from an eight week closed economy will not be forgotten for years and that behaviors will change. As a result, I believe the Entertainment sector will be hit hard and movie theaters in particular will become obsolete. Indoor malls will have to be retrofitted into living communities, and cruse ships will be sold for scrap or for cargo use. Airlines will survive, but I am still of the opinion that the top three, along with BA, could be nationalized if the virus returns.
We are going to need bankruptcies to clear the markets and end this recession. Its also going to need rationalization. The sooner sellers are rational the faster we can recover - whether it be stocks, bonds, real estate, cars, art, or watches!

[JParm]

Originally Posted by Frontier

A few TRF members have asked me to comment on here. I am a managing partner of a venture capital firm. My analysts research companies based on a number of factors - institutional ownership, available free cash, P/E multiple, outstanding debt, rank in sector, sector analysis, relative value, RSI, Bollinger Bands, OB/OS, and option activity. After reading 81 pages of content I am proceeding with a few of my own thoughts.
From a 30,000 foot view I believe we are headed into another turbulent period later this month. While I am in the camp that I think we have tested the lows (for now) I believe investors should be at least in 50% cash and be prepared to buy on what could be some rather quick dips in later May through July. If investors are sitting in losses they should remain disciplined and focused on their long term objectives, but for those with cash they should be more selective than ever in what they are purchasing.
To start, look around at the behaviors and habits of society. Where are people spending money? AMZN, TGT, WMT, CVS, DG, DLTR, COST, BJ, KR, and others. Paper towels are now more valuable than Panerais, Toilet Paper more than Tag Heuers, and Wesson oil much more valuable than West Texas Intermediate. This Food & Drug/Discretionary sector has become the sector to build wealth. Some of these companies have little debt, low P/E ratios, and very strong analyst's outlooks. I like them all, but love AMZN even though it trades at 112X earnings.
In the Industrial/Defense sector I like GD and LHX. Both are loved by the analysts, have manageable debt, low P/Es, and are owned almost exclusively by institutional investors.
I am not a fan of financials, but believe that BAC and JPM are best positioned for the economic slowdown. This crisis has none of the characteristics of the Great Recession so I don't believe the banks face any immediate risks, however aside from decent dividends I am not convinced financials will benefit the same as Consumer Finance companies like PYPL and V.
High level, I have already sold anything associated with travel and hospitality. I am not (nor have I ever been) a fan of the commercial airline industry. I also don't like hotels, movie theaters, cruise ships, oil exploration, and wouldn't recommend buying them unless they are first lien debt plays on the cheap.
My core positions are in AMZN, ABT, ADBE, BABA, GOOGL, HD, JNJ, MDLZ, MSFT, NVDA, PYPL, SAFM, UNH, V, and ZBH, and GLD and SLV for precious metals.
I have ancillary positions in AAPL, AKAM, AMAT, CMG, COST, CRM, CSCO, CVS, DHR, EW, GD, ISRG, KMI, LYFT, NSRGY, NVS, PG, SAP, SIEGY, TWLO.
I am trying to acquire TTWO (below $115) , GWPH (below $95), VRTX (below $225), NFLX (below $350) and DIS (below $80).
If the virus spirals out of control in the fall of 2020, I believe we will retest the lows (target 1850 on the S&P). I am hope full that herd immunity prevails and we have seen and experienced the worst, but like the Spanish Flu a century ago the second leg would feel much worse than the first.
I do believe the damage from an eight week closed economy will not be forgotten for years and that behaviors will change. As a result, I believe the Entertainment sector will be hit hard and movie theaters in particular will become obsolete. Indoor malls will have to be retrofitted into living communities, and cruse ships will be sold for scrap or for cargo use. Airlines will survive, but I am still of the opinion that the top three, along with BA, could be nationalized if the virus returns.
We are going to need bankruptcies to clear the markets and end this recession. Its also going to need rationalization. The sooner sellers are rational the faster we can recover - whether it be stocks, bonds, real estate, cars, art, or watches!

I'm one of those that has been pushing Barry over here - welcome to the thread, my friend.

Glad we've got another person involved here with abundant knowledge of the markets.

[beshannon]

Thanks for the input Barry

[cornerstore]

Originally Posted by Frontier

A few TRF members have asked me to comment on here. I am a managing partner of a venture capital firm. My analysts research companies based on a number of factors - institutional ownership, available free cash, P/E multiple, outstanding debt, rank in sector, sector analysis, relative value, RSI, Bollinger Bands, OB/OS, and option activity. After reading 81 pages of content I am proceeding with a few of my own thoughts.
From a 30,000 foot view I believe we are headed into another turbulent period later this month. While I am in the camp that I think we have tested the lows (for now) I believe investors should be at least in 50% cash and be prepared to buy on what could be some rather quick dips in later May through July. If investors are sitting in losses they should remain disciplined and focused on their long term objectives, but for those with cash they should be more selective than ever in what they are purchasing.
To start, look around at the behaviors and habits of society. Where are people spending money? AMZN, TGT, WMT, CVS, DG, DLTR, COST, BJ, KR, and others. Paper towels are now more valuable than Panerais, Toilet Paper more than Tag Heuers, and Wesson oil much more valuable than West Texas Intermediate. This Food & Drug/Discretionary sector has become the sector to build wealth. Some of these companies have little debt, low P/E ratios, and very strong analyst's outlooks. I like them all, but love AMZN even though it trades at 112X earnings.
In the Industrial/Defense sector I like GD and LHX. Both are loved by the analysts, have manageable debt, low P/Es, and are owned almost exclusively by institutional investors.
I am not a fan of financials, but believe that BAC and JPM are best positioned for the economic slowdown. This crisis has none of the characteristics of the Great Recession so I don't believe the banks face any immediate risks, however aside from decent dividends I am not convinced financials will benefit the same as Consumer Finance companies like PYPL and V.
High level, I have already sold anything associated with travel and hospitality. I am not (nor have I ever been) a fan of the commercial airline industry. I also don't like hotels, movie theaters, cruise ships, oil exploration, and wouldn't recommend buying them unless they are first lien debt plays on the cheap.
My core positions are in AMZN, ABT, ADBE, BABA, GOOGL, HD, JNJ, MDLZ, MSFT, NVDA, PYPL, SAFM, UNH, V, and ZBH, and GLD and SLV for precious metals.
I have ancillary positions in AAPL, AKAM, AMAT, CMG, COST, CRM, CSCO, CVS, DHR, EW, GD, ISRG, KMI, LYFT, NSRGY, NVS, PG, SAP, SIEGY, TWLO.
I am trying to acquire TTWO (below $115) , GWPH (below $95), VRTX (below $225), NFLX (below $350) and DIS (below $80).
If the virus spirals out of control in the fall of 2020, I believe we will retest the lows (target 1850 on the S&P). I am hope full that herd immunity prevails and we have seen and experienced the worst, but like the Spanish Flu a century ago the second leg would feel much worse than the first.
I do believe the damage from an eight week closed economy will not be forgotten for years and that behaviors will change. As a result, I believe the Entertainment sector will be hit hard and movie theaters in particular will become obsolete. Indoor malls will have to be retrofitted into living communities, and cruse ships will be sold for scrap or for cargo use. Airlines will survive, but I am still of the opinion that the top three, along with BA, could be nationalized if the virus returns.
We are going to need bankruptcies to clear the markets and end this recession. Its also going to need rationalization. The sooner sellers are rational the faster we can recover - whether it be stocks, bonds, real estate, cars, art, or watches!

Pretty good analysis of the overall situation. However it’s not sellers who are irrational it’s the buyers who are irrational. Eleven years of irrational buyers .

[SMD]

Originally Posted by Frontier

A few TRF members have asked me to comment on here. I am a managing partner of a venture capital firm. My analysts research companies based on a number of factors - institutional ownership, available free cash, P/E multiple, outstanding debt, rank in sector, sector analysis, relative value, RSI, Bollinger Bands, OB/OS, and option activity. After reading 81 pages of content I am proceeding with a few of my own thoughts.
From a 30,000 foot view I believe we are headed into another turbulent period later this month. While I am in the camp that I think we have tested the lows (for now) I believe investors should be at least in 50% cash and be prepared to buy on what could be some rather quick dips in later May through July. If investors are sitting in losses they should remain disciplined and focused on their long term objectives, but for those with cash they should be more selective than ever in what they are purchasing.
To start, look around at the behaviors and habits of society. Where are people spending money? AMZN, TGT, WMT, CVS, DG, DLTR, COST, BJ, KR, and others. Paper towels are now more valuable than Panerais, Toilet Paper more than Tag Heuers, and Wesson oil much more valuable than West Texas Intermediate. This Food & Drug/Discretionary sector has become the sector to build wealth. Some of these companies have little debt, low P/E ratios, and very strong analyst's outlooks. I like them all, but love AMZN even though it trades at 112X earnings.
In the Industrial/Defense sector I like GD and LHX. Both are loved by the analysts, have manageable debt, low P/Es, and are owned almost exclusively by institutional investors.
I am not a fan of financials, but believe that BAC and JPM are best positioned for the economic slowdown. This crisis has none of the characteristics of the Great Recession so I don't believe the banks face any immediate risks, however aside from decent dividends I am not convinced financials will benefit the same as Consumer Finance companies like PYPL and V.
High level, I have already sold anything associated with travel and hospitality. I am not (nor have I ever been) a fan of the commercial airline industry. I also don't like hotels, movie theaters, cruise ships, oil exploration, and wouldn't recommend buying them unless they are first lien debt plays on the cheap.
My core positions are in AMZN, ABT, ADBE, BABA, GOOGL, HD, JNJ, MDLZ, MSFT, NVDA, PYPL, SAFM, UNH, V, and ZBH, and GLD and SLV for precious metals.
I have ancillary positions in AAPL, AKAM, AMAT, CMG, COST, CRM, CSCO, CVS, DHR, EW, GD, ISRG, KMI, LYFT, NSRGY, NVS, PG, SAP, SIEGY, TWLO.
I am trying to acquire TTWO (below $115) , GWPH (below $95), VRTX (below $225), NFLX (below $350) and DIS (below $80).
If the virus spirals out of control in the fall of 2020, I believe we will retest the lows (target 1850 on the S&P). I am hope full that herd immunity prevails and we have seen and experienced the worst, but like the Spanish Flu a century ago the second leg would feel much worse than the first.
I do believe the damage from an eight week closed economy will not be forgotten for years and that behaviors will change. As a result, I believe the Entertainment sector will be hit hard and movie theaters in particular will become obsolete. Indoor malls will have to be retrofitted into living communities, and cruse ships will be sold for scrap or for cargo use. Airlines will survive, but I am still of the opinion that the top three, along with BA, could be nationalized if the virus returns.
We are going to need bankruptcies to clear the markets and end this recession. Its also going to need rationalization. The sooner sellers are rational the faster we can recover - whether it be stocks, bonds, real estate, cars, art, or watches!

Those are some strange holdings for a VC firm no? In fact I am confused as to why a VC firm would own much public stock at all unless this is just personal investing outside of your core area of focus.

[Bearxj86]

I have been struggling a lot lately in that a good portion of us have undeployed capital waiting on the sidelines because we believe the "bad news" is not fully absorbed by the market and valuations are below what they should be. I think this is 100% true if our outlook is earnings over 1-3 years. Companies are just worth less because of a recession and a shutdown.

However if we believe the stock market is based upon terminal values (over 20/30/50 years). What is the appropriate valuation discount outside of liquidity discount? I was thinking around 15-20% assuming the companies survive...but your long-term discount rate is now lower because interest rates are lower (thus increasing enterprise value because your WACC is lower). Also are your industry growth rates changing in the 10-20 year run rate?