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Old 20 January 2024, 02:46 AM   #1
Ceriano
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When do you think secondary market prices will bottom out?

Summer is usually the weakest month, do you think we finally see the bottom in the summer of 2024? What would take for the market to capitulate?
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Old 20 January 2024, 03:23 AM   #2
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I think most model already bottomed with a few notable exceptions including the Pepsi. The Daytona, the new one, won't go down for a few years, but the last gen one is probably close if not at the bottom imho.

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Old 20 January 2024, 03:35 AM   #3
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As more and more people post less and less photos on Facebook, Instagram, etc... or quitting social media completely, the need to "flex" a luxury lifestyle has drastically diminished.

Since the need is diminishing, the market is adgusting.
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Old 20 January 2024, 03:40 AM   #4
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I didn’t know watches follow a seasonal trading range. Learned something new here today.
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Old 20 January 2024, 03:41 AM   #5
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Erm is this a genuine question
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Old 20 January 2024, 03:43 AM   #6
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In the near term, I think used market prices have bottomed out. If those prices were to soften further, demand will soften cascading everything further down. If there is a real cost to accumulating Rolex watches by their depreciation, people will want to own less of them. Life was a lot simpler where all Rolex lost value on the used markets. Demand for new was a lot more stable and manageable.
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Old 20 January 2024, 03:47 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by brandrea View Post
I didn’t know watches follow a seasonal trading range. Learned something new here today.
Before the hype and demand when nuts, the summer months were traditionally a slow period in watch sales. In the past few years there hasn’t been a slow period for the hot brands and models.
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Old 20 January 2024, 04:02 AM   #8
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Model dependent, imo. I think the more "recent" (2000s era) 5 digits have some more room to fall. There were too many people that purchased these during the boom years because they couldn't obtain/afford the 6 digits they really wanted OR thinking they were investment pieces that would only keep going up. As some of these people start getting the call for a 6 digit or the 6 digit comes down to a price they can afford, they will keep dumping the 5 digits, along with those people that realize it's not an investment.

There's also just a ton of them on the market, not exactly rare watches.

IMO a 16570 Polar should settle down into the 6k range, the black around 5k (mint with papers). 16610 should probably be in the 7-8k range, and the 16710 should come down to 8-9k. I think that would be about the bottom range for these watches.
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Old 20 January 2024, 04:18 AM   #9
Ceriano
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Erm is this a genuine question
It's a watch forum so any general discussion topic is valid as far as I'm concerned :)
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Old 20 January 2024, 04:34 AM   #10
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I believe the labor market will continue to soften. Several layoff were announced this week and I believe more are to come. Most F500 are reporting earnings in the next few weeks. The results for those that already reported have been mixed so far which could signal trouble ahead.

I don't believe the price correction will be huge tho, for that to happen Rolex needs to overflow the market with subs, gmt, etc. But heck, what do I know :D
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Old 20 January 2024, 04:37 AM   #11
wm82
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NASDAQ closed at all time high yesterday.

We are nowhere near a bottom, of anything.

WoS guidance revision and a 36% drop in share prices yesterday should give you a hint on where things are going to go though...
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Old 20 January 2024, 04:39 AM   #12
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It will drop the day people stop feeding it.
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Old 20 January 2024, 04:40 AM   #13
Fleetlord
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What is the expectation here? Rolex 20% below retail through greys and AD stuffed with watches to buy at will?
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Old 20 January 2024, 04:46 AM   #14
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I don't think we are close to the bottom. The labor market as already intimated is far from really posting what is going on. Seasonal labor and second jobs skewing whats out there. Layoffs are coming and maybe "they" will let us know we are probably in a recession. The bets that the Fed were going to lower short term rates in March are a little muddled last 2 weeks and that will tell a lot. The 10 yr is up over 4% again. So in all that gobblygook there is a lot going on. Yes many YouTubers are quitting after covid and the insta crowd so yes personally I see more mov't down. But thats just me and what i look at. Daily

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Old 20 January 2024, 05:21 AM   #15
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When new watches are regularly available at the AD secondary prices will bottom out, either slightly above or below MSRP. This will vary by models, it’s already starting to happen for PM models.
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Old 20 January 2024, 05:26 AM   #16
Ceriano
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What is the expectation here? Rolex 20% below retail through greys and AD stuffed with watches to buy at will?
Not for new watches but I do expect the pre-owned prices for most models to be at or below retail.
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Old 20 January 2024, 06:39 AM   #17
Johndong888
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New watches, they still won’t put out from the top marquees. They’re still in a position to maintain artificial scarcity.

We just need all the greys to start dumping. They’re already restricting the models they’re buying.


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Old 20 January 2024, 06:42 AM   #18
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I think watch market will be pretty stable for the foreseeable future with the economy being so strong in the US. As long as unemployment is low, stock market increases and there's confidence people will keep buying.
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Old 20 January 2024, 06:44 AM   #19
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Hard to predict bottom, but '24 should see more softening
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Old 20 January 2024, 07:03 AM   #20
Trogster
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Objectively, the luxury market should see another 50% correction over the next two years.

If war breaks out in Taiwan, expect a 75% haircut.
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Old 20 January 2024, 07:18 AM   #21
4reRlxGuy
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It should be getting close (baring something international happens where it could get worse).

I got a "call" from my AD. Arrived early and the previous client was finishing up who walked away from 3 datejusts (one was a mint dial).

There was a JC and both steel date and ND sub available. I passed on all 3 since this dealer will only allocate 1 steel sports model per year.

Things are changing. My grey dealer told me most PM models execpt for platinum and some oysterflex Daytonas can be had for list or below (no tax)
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Old 20 January 2024, 07:27 AM   #22
Nads786
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fleetlord View Post
What is the expectation here? Rolex 20% below retail through greys and AD stuffed with watches to buy at will?
I think a realistic expectation is smaller spreads with grey dealers and DJs, OPs, Exp1 and 2 readily available.

Subs 3-4 month wait and the rest still exclusive with 1+ year waits.
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Old 20 January 2024, 07:28 AM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thenewrick View Post
I think watch market will be pretty stable for the foreseeable future with the economy being so strong in the US. As long as unemployment is low, stock market increases and there's confidence people will keep buying.
I'm wondering if the economy is outside of 2008 financial meltdown really correlates with Rolex purchases.

Do we have any historical data on this being the case?
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Old 20 January 2024, 07:30 AM   #24
kieselguhr
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When do you think secondary market prices will bottom out?

When TRF and other Rolex fora on other platforms become ghost towns.

At which point the “to the moon” crown would have moved on to the flavor of the week, while the “bottom out” crowd finally get to say I told you so… to an empty room.
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Old 20 January 2024, 07:32 AM   #25
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Big election years like 2024 provide false economic equivalency ie cutting interest rates 3x. Bond markets, t-bonds rule the world, not NASDAQ.
The truth shall be revealed in 2025.
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Old 20 January 2024, 07:37 AM   #26
Travis29
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were never going to see under MSRP for most rolex models. Prices are pretty much Ed bottom.
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Old 20 January 2024, 09:56 AM   #27
JasoninDenver
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Objectively, the luxury market should see another 50% correction over the next two years.

If war breaks out in Taiwan, expect a 75% haircut.
If this were true, it would be a harbinger of far worse issues for us to fret over than watch prices.
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Old 20 January 2024, 10:03 AM   #28
BlondesNwatches
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I think by Jan 2025. People are back to traveling and living life instead of constant social media during the pandemic.
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Old 20 January 2024, 10:06 AM   #29
yankeeromeo
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It's a watch forum so any general discussion topic is valid as far as I'm concerned :)
It's a little how long is this string in my bag you can't see. Kind of question
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Old 20 January 2024, 10:19 AM   #30
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Quote:
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It's a watch forum so any general discussion topic is valid as far as I'm concerned :)
Seconded ..l
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