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Old 20 January 2024, 10:33 AM   #31
jfmiii
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Originally Posted by amphora001 View Post
I think most model already bottomed with a few notable exceptions including the Pepsi. The Daytona, the new one, won't go down for a few years, but the last gen one is probably close if not at the bottom imho.

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Idk. I think the 116500 has room to fall. With Zenith Daytonas in the low 20s, I think the ceramic have room to go down. Either the 16520 is great value or the 500 is expensive.
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Old 20 January 2024, 11:06 AM   #32
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Idk. I think the 116500 has room to fall. With Zenith Daytonas in the low 20s, I think the ceramic have room to go down. Either the 16520 is great value or the 500 is expensive.
Where are zeniths in the low 20s? I am looking for one and am not seeing that.
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Old 20 January 2024, 11:18 AM   #33
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What is the expectation here? Rolex 20% below retail through greys and AD stuffed with watches to buy at will?

So basically 2015


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Old 20 January 2024, 11:21 AM   #34
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Summer is usually the weakest month, do you think we finally see the bottom in the summer of 2024? What would take for the market to capitulate?
Not sure what you mean by bottom-out.

Historically, used watches are cheaper than new, but you have to have new, consistently available, for that to happen. There are exceptions like Red Subs and so on, but right now the Rolex watch market is upside-down.
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Old 20 January 2024, 11:30 AM   #35
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Where are zeniths in the low 20s? I am looking for one and am not seeing that.
Tim just sold this and it was mint.

https://www.fogcityvintage.com/produ...ith-daytona-5/

There’s a bunch on Moda in high teens/low 20s as well.
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Old 20 January 2024, 11:54 AM   #36
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It will drop the day people stop feeding it.
You are correct but I dont believe that will happen(the feeding ).
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Old 20 January 2024, 12:00 PM   #37
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Tim just sold this and it was mint.

https://www.fogcityvintage.com/produ...ith-daytona-5/

There’s a bunch on Moda in high teens/low 20s as well.
Thanks, never heard of Fog City Vintage before! I’m not on Moda, looking more at usual suspects like HQ Milton and Tropical Watch. Any other good sites I should check?
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Old 20 January 2024, 10:55 PM   #38
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Thanks, never heard of Fog City Vintage before! I’m not on Moda, looking more at usual suspects like HQ Milton and Tropical Watch. Any other good sites I should check?
Fog City is a very reputable seller. He sells on TRF as well. I actually purchased my BLRO from him. He also has a great podcast called Dialed In on Spotify.
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Old 20 January 2024, 11:45 PM   #39
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The market moves based on many factors. We also see seasonal pauses and surges but the large Trusted Sellers know this and are capitalized to such an extent that it is just the passing of time for them. Movement up or down in pre-owned prices at around 10% is just the fluctuation in the market. You can not get a hot watch from an AD even still unless you fall into the lucky/whale/significant spend or all of the above. Someone always posts a walk in where they were able to buy a SS Daytona/BLRO or other desirable watch. This is very much the exception and not the rule. As much as the naysayers want us to have a recession and everything collapse so they can buy a watch it is not going to happen. Economic numbers do not show that and we are heading into an election year in the U.S. and typically the government does everything in its power to have a good economy during this cycle. Let interest rate decline, the housing market will explode followed by the automobile industry and money will be flowing again. Then the price on theses watch will blow up again because there will be pent up demand, no more production and plenty of money. Just my thoughts.
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Old 20 January 2024, 11:49 PM   #40
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Fog City is a very reputable seller. He sells on TRF as well. I actually purchased my BLRO from him. He also has a great podcast called Dialed In on Spotify.
Great info, thanks!
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Old 21 January 2024, 12:05 AM   #41
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Summer is usually the weakest month, do you think we finally see the bottom in the summer of 2024? What would take for the market to capitulate?
When Rolex watches stop being thought of as little more than £$€ objects and little more.
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Old 21 January 2024, 12:44 AM   #42
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The market moves based on many factors. We also see seasonal pauses and surges but the large Trusted Sellers know this and are capitalized to such an extent that it is just the passing of time for them. Movement up or down in pre-owned prices at around 10% is just the fluctuation in the market. You can not get a hot watch from an AD even still unless you fall into the lucky/whale/significant spend or all of the above. Someone always posts a walk in where they were able to buy a SS Daytona/BLRO or other desirable watch. This is very much the exception and not the rule. As much as the naysayers want us to have a recession and everything collapse so they can buy a watch it is not going to happen. Economic numbers do not show that and we are heading into an election year in the U.S. and typically the government does everything in its power to have a good economy during this cycle. Let interest rate decline, the housing market will explode followed by the automobile industry and money will be flowing again. Then the price on theses watch will blow up again because there will be pent up demand, no more production and plenty of money. Just my thoughts.
I’m just not following this logic, the economy was pretty good in 2017-2018 yet watches were much more available. This is about Covid demand that should wane over time as people move on.
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Old 21 January 2024, 01:32 AM   #43
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Old 21 January 2024, 01:33 AM   #44
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Originally Posted by 1William View Post
The market moves based on many factors. We also see seasonal pauses and surges but the large Trusted Sellers know this and are capitalized to such an extent that it is just the passing of time for them. Movement up or down in pre-owned prices at around 10% is just the fluctuation in the market. You can not get a hot watch from an AD even still unless you fall into the lucky/whale/significant spend or all of the above. Someone always posts a walk in where they were able to buy a SS Daytona/BLRO or other desirable watch. This is very much the exception and not the rule. As much as the naysayers want us to have a recession and everything collapse so they can buy a watch it is not going to happen. Economic numbers do not show that and we are heading into an election year in the U.S. and typically the government does everything in its power to have a good economy during this cycle. Let interest rate decline, the housing market will explode followed by the automobile industry and money will be flowing again. Then the price on theses watch will blow up again because there will be pent up demand, no more production and plenty of money. Just my thoughts.
I tend to agree with this /\/\/\
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Old 21 January 2024, 02:12 AM   #45
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When they stop being fashionable - when the influencers get bored, and celebrities move on to something else.

I’m sure by 2030, people will be laughing about everyone wanting a Rolex in the early 2020s
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Old 21 January 2024, 02:15 AM   #46
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I’m just not following this logic, the economy was pretty good in 2017-2018 yet watches were much more available. This is about Covid demand that should wane over time as people move on.
No, Rolex as a brand has moved from that position in 2017. It was very apparent that Covid has given Rolex a free look to where they can go and they have capitalized on it moving upmarket. The fact Rolex is using "display only" models confirms they will never have semi full display cases again at their AD. Rolex of 10 years ago is gone regardless what the momentary economy is doing.
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Old 21 January 2024, 02:46 AM   #47
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No, Rolex as a brand has moved from that position in 2017. It was very apparent that Covid has given Rolex a free look to where they can go and they have capitalized on it moving upmarket. The fact Rolex is using "display only" models confirms they will never have semi full display cases again at their AD. Rolex of 10 years ago is gone regardless what the momentary economy is doing.
That's the central theory - I recently did notice there is a (i) on their watches and a disclaimer on the Rolex website which states some watches may not be available because they are handcrafted and the only way to buy a watch is from an AD.

I'm not sure if this was always there or something new.

Either way I'm interested in seeing if this is something they can continue to capitalize on or it's a tactical error on their part.
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Old 21 January 2024, 11:03 AM   #48
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No, Rolex as a brand has moved from that position in 2017. It was very apparent that Covid has given Rolex a free look to where they can go and they have capitalized on it moving upmarket. The fact Rolex is using "display only" models confirms they will never have semi full display cases again at their AD. Rolex of 10 years ago is gone regardless what the momentary economy is doing.
Factories were shut down during covid, they were simply not making any watches. They can’t continue that practice, it’s not sustainable.
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Old 21 January 2024, 11:07 AM   #49
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I think by Jan 2025. People are back to traveling and living life instead of constant social media during the pandemic.
I agree with your opinion.
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Old 21 January 2024, 11:07 AM   #50
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The market moves based on many factors. We also see seasonal pauses and surges but the large Trusted Sellers know this and are capitalized to such an extent that it is just the passing of time for them. Movement up or down in pre-owned prices at around 10% is just the fluctuation in the market. You can not get a hot watch from an AD even still unless you fall into the lucky/whale/significant spend or all of the above. Someone always posts a walk in where they were able to buy a SS Daytona/BLRO or other desirable watch. This is very much the exception and not the rule. As much as the naysayers want us to have a recession and everything collapse so they can buy a watch it is not going to happen. Economic numbers do not show that and we are heading into an election year in the U.S. and typically the government does everything in its power to have a good economy during this cycle. Let interest rate decline, the housing market will explode followed by the automobile industry and money will be flowing again. Then the price on theses watch will blow up again because there will be pent up demand, no more production and plenty of money. Just my thoughts.
You miss one important factor and that’s sentiment. It was easy to justify buying watches when they were considered an investment. That’s no longer the case. While I do expect rate cuts, feds know better than that to cut too aggressively. Otherwise inflation will go right back up.
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Old 21 January 2024, 11:10 AM   #51
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Factories were shut down during covid, they were simply not making any watches. They can’t continue that practice, it’s not sustainable.
Covid gave Rolex a free “market view” not a manufacturing supply view. Rolex started their upmarket control path 5 or so years before Covid. The hot watch market just accelerated their final push like reduced AD’s, display models and all new redesigned showrooms. In reality this march upmarket started way back when they restricted parts and aftermarket services. Certain models besides the ss Daytona started to be a bit more selective around 2013 in availability. When the 116500 Daytona hit it exploded to unprecedented levels of desirability and a new world in availability, waiting list and market prices grew from the Daytona trickling down the professional line..
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Old 21 January 2024, 10:57 PM   #52
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Old 21 January 2024, 11:57 PM   #53
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A week from Thursday.
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Old 22 January 2024, 02:19 AM   #54
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Most demand for Rolex of late was based on the premise that there would be more demand soon after and forever more. Many watches were sold purely for speculative reasons.
That is not the case now. Now the axe has fallen and has a long swing down.

Anyone who is thinking the very unique circumstances of the last 3 years are going to be the norm forever I believe are mistaken.

As for the economy being good. I'm not sure what planet you live on, but the USA is in terrible state. You owe $250k+ as a tax payer the second you are born.... China is facing deomgraphic collapse. Just because CNN or whever is saying it is great, it doesn't change the fact inflation is still out of control and cost of living for many is unmanageable.
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Old 22 January 2024, 05:33 AM   #55
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Covid gave Rolex a free “market view” not a manufacturing supply view. Rolex started their upmarket control path 5 or so years before Covid. The hot watch market just accelerated their final push like reduced AD’s, display models and all new redesigned showrooms. In reality this march upmarket started way back when they restricted parts and aftermarket services. Certain models besides the ss Daytona started to be a bit more selective around 2013 in availability. When the 116500 Daytona hit it exploded to unprecedented levels of desirability and a new world in availability, waiting list and market prices grew from the Daytona trickling down the professional line..
This is the best description of what's been going on and will continue to.
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Old 22 January 2024, 06:03 AM   #56
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I think everything gonna go back to how it always was and below retail. SS gmts and SS daytonas and other stuff like tifany op etc will drop but still keep a premium. Yes, today there is a shortage of these watches because demand became crazy as they became investments but this is only the past few years. If Rolex keeps making over a million watches and increasing prices, I am convinced the demand won't be like this in 10 years. over 10 million new watches in the market assuming they don't double production and the demand stays the same that's ridiculous.
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Old 22 January 2024, 06:23 AM   #57
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Old 22 January 2024, 07:42 AM   #58
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When do you think secondary market prices will bottom out?

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I think everything gonna go back to how it always was and below retail. SS gmts and SS daytonas and other stuff like tifany op etc will drop but still keep a premium. Yes, today there is a shortage of these watches because demand became crazy as they became investments but this is only the past few years. If Rolex keeps making over a million watches and increasing prices, I am convinced the demand won't be like this in 10 years. over 10 million new watches in the market assuming they don't double production and the demand stays the same that's ridiculous.

Exactly. And the way 90% of owners maintain the pristine condition of their watches…you’ll have 10 million plus the already millions in circulation all looking new.

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Old 22 January 2024, 08:28 AM   #59
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As for the economy being good. I'm not sure what planet you live on, but the USA is in terrible state. You owe $250k+ as a tax payer the second you are born.... China is facing deomgraphic collapse. Just because CNN or whever is saying it is great, it doesn't change the fact inflation is still out of control and cost of living for many is unmanageable.
Exactly. The media says inflation is going down. But it’s not. The rate at which inflation is increasing is going down. There’s a big difference between the two. Plus, GDP numbers are artificially inflated due to those spending packages that most people don’t benefit from.


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Old 22 January 2024, 09:11 AM   #60
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When do you think secondary market prices will bottom out?

I’m not sure “bottom out” is ever a term for the secondary market.

Maybe “crossover” is better. That is, in terms of MSRP. Meaning the point where BNIB SS on secondary market is at or below MSRP.

I don’t see it as a time call as much as a conditional call - like a serious depression that kills excess demand completely.

I don’t see it happening in the next year.

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