The vintage market

[Karbo]

Hello TRF

Seems that prices for vintage pieces will reach the sun !
When I see prices for 5513 maxi, gilt, double red, daytona etc.. Prices just get higher and higher every month ? When this will stop ? Is it a bubble or the demand is just fast growing ?

[lhanddds]

The market is crazy now and I'm mostly on hold. I would expect a correction but when is anybody's guess. It took a real recession to have an effect last time.


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[05carbondrz]

Demand is just growing fast.When new Buyers are not interested in the modern offerings from Rolex where do they go?

[watchcrank]

very good examples are rising in price, poor examples if cheap enough seem to sell. I see middle of the road examples that would previously sell not moving and may be pushed into the parts category. just my 2 cents from a limited geographic area.

[wehttaM]

It's getting a lot harder to find examples that are in really good condition, so people are willing to pay more for something that's really nice. It also depends on which models, certain ones definitely have risen in price more than others.

[Passionata]

Originally Posted by Karbo

Hello TRF



Seems that prices for vintage pieces will reach the sun !

When I see prices for 5513 maxi, gilt, double red, daytona etc.. Prices just get higher and higher every month ? When this will stop ? Is it a bubble or the demand is just fast growing ?

Growing very quick ,i ve seen pieces sold for 1-2 grands used to be auctioneed for 15grands recently and it wasn t a Rolex -vintage eterna,UG and other manufacturers climbing up in prices too .I think the reason is simple ,inflation .there is too much money(wealth) in the world which should be invested ,the watch world one of their target.The old saying buy stocks rather watches as investment isn t valid anymore ppl can get nice ROI if invested wisely in certain models.

[bayerische]

Asking prices seem to go up, but are they selling? IMHO here in Europe the same (nice) vintage pieces seem to be on sale forever.

[Jason71]

The last time that the vintage market corrected, it was when the stock market took a huge dive. IMHO, as long as the stock market is going crazy and is overvalued (IMHO), the prices of vintage Rolex watches will continue to go nuts.

As to when this will happen?? My crystal ball is broken at the moment.

[Karbo]

Originally Posted by Jason71

The last time that the vintage market corrected, it was when the stock market took a huge dive. IMHO, as long as the stock market is going crazy and is overvalued (IMHO), the prices of vintage Rolex watches will continue to go nuts.

As to when this will happen?? My crystal ball is broken at the moment.

follow the stock market...

[Karbo]

Bump

[Etschell]

idk. i can find 5513s for 5-6k, are they gilt or maxi dials? no. but it is still trading in a decent range.

[fusionstorm]

Predicting this is like trying to predict how the global equity markets will perform. The only certainty is that high quality examples of anything scarce & desirable will always be in demand and will command a premium. Obviously an extreme example, but no one was fretting about the market for Van Goghs during the Great Recession......

[Rameez-Q]

I don't think it'll slow down anytime soon. I sold two 1675 GMTs before the prices started going crazy. Before you could find them for £3-4k for a half decent example but now prices are starting from £5k for a decent one.

Being in the UK vintage is more scarce as opposed to USA where their is plenty more.

With that being said, I think a lot jump on the bandwagon & sell vintage pieces at crazy prices mostly private sellers most of which don't sell & further inflate the market by making other sellers try & price accordingly.

[Karbo]

We are 7 months later... Whats your opinion today :)) ?

[speedolex]

When will the market crash?

When Hipsters start breeding, heading to the suburbs, and buying minivans.

[marcusjcw21]

What could positively affect the vintage market? Population growth

What could hurt it? a) Major well known sellers in lawsuits b)Article on major blog that says that tropical and patina watches will become worthless when the dials and hands corrode enough c)Sellers of frankenwatches d)Sellers of fake vintage frankenwatches using counterfeit dials e) Sellers of counterfeit parts such as dials and cases

If the sellers of the fakes and frankens put their items up for sale, this has a 2 fold effect - 1)dillution of supply/demand 2)lowering collector confidence

Get rid of the fakes and frankens, and the supply will slowly go down due to corrosion and loss while the demand will grow due to marketing and population growth.

In my opinion, the fakes and frankens must go. Otherwise, you may have a $50k original authentic Rolex and when you decide to sell it, nobody will have the confidence to pay you what it should be worth. Also, these major lawsuits that make the news have got to stop. There should be major penalties even if someone is exonerated. Many potential future consumers will be affected by having read the headlines or stumbling across the headlines while doing their homework when getting ready to acquire a vintage piece.

The only practical solution right now is to self-police regarding sellers of fakes and frankens to ensure the supply of vintage watches isn't increased while simultaneously reducing consumer confidence in the vintage market.

I predict that if we can work together as a team to stop the fakes and frankens that the values will continue to go up and up -- except for on those poor watches in an advanced state of decay.

[16610v]

Seems the vintage will be more popular considered that the new models are part with vintage look and no one want to wear the exact same watch (new models) all over the street.

[theflywrist]

I think it's anyones guess but I will be forced to step aside if prices keep going this wild..

[psv]

There will be corrections but over the long run it will always go up.

[Sculler22]

Truly fine examples should retain their value despite macro economic corrections. Typically, high end transactions slow or stop during these periods. That means that actual prices do not decline, but there are few, if any, transactions. Once conditions improve, prices revert to actual supply and demand forces.

[aaamax]

A good point mentioned above about "frankens" and the fear of getting duped.
With just one exception, all my vintage pieces were bought 10 or many, many more years ago. The Franken parts have just gotten way too good for me to trust anyone's ability to be 100% sure about their wares.

[JohnnyNoDate]

Vintage Rolexes will hurt once basic 5513, 1680, and 1675's start reaching 5-figures. It'll price out most newcomers looking to get in and also hurt collectors looking to move out pieces.

5k-9k is the sweet spot for vintages IMO. I imagine buyers in the market for 10k vintage pieces is limited, and pieces over 20k even more so.

There's too many variables involved once you break the 10k barrier; i.e.: value and risk.

[fusionstorm]

We know that, barring an unlikely "barn find" where many thousands of vintage pieces suddenly came onto the market, the supply of vintage is only going down as time progresses. As long as the potential pool of vintage buyers continues to grow or just remains the same, demand will always exceed supply.

And though the millennial generation is reputed to be less enamored of material possessions, countering that is there are plenty of opportunities for them to earn 6-figure salaries in short order if they're in the right field (primarily STEM). While $100K USD annually doesn't go as far as it used to 10 years ago, it still affords an opportunity for those who appreciate quality to enter the vintage market.

Vintage will inevitably plateau/correct. But IMO there's too much money floating around globally for a major correction to take place a la 2009-2010. Quality vintage has become like quality real estate.......there are a lot of people now who would rush in to buy if there were a dip in pricing. The fact that we've seen:

1) a significant crash
2) the market then subsequently roaring back above previous levels

won't keep people on the sidelines like last time when buying opportunities were frequent.

[Mick P]

Chaps

Every market crashes and then recovers only to crash again. That is a simple fact of life.

It will happen to the vintage market and like all crashes it will bring a sense of reality back. To be honest, it is long overdue to bring new guys into the market.

Regards

Mick

[speedolex]

Originally Posted by Mick P

Chaps

Every market crashes and then recovers only to crash again. That is a simple fact of life.

It will happen to the vintage market and like all crashes it will bring a sense of reality back. To be honest, it is long overdue to bring new guys into the market.

Regards

Mick

In the "Aged Watch Dials: Good Investment, Or Ticking Time Bomb?" article Hodinkee posted a few months back a collector named Jason Fried posted the following which I think makes a lot of sense:

Here's what I think will happen...

Tropical/aged dials will continue to be all the rage until they begin to fail with more frequency. When money can't be made on age, age will go out of style.

Then the powers that be (dealers, auction houses, market makers, etc), will begin to float the idea that beautifully restored dials are perfectly acceptable - and desirable - just like beautifully restored cars are perfectly acceptable and desirable. You're already seeing well restored cases being floated as more acceptable. This is a recent development as it's become harder and harder to find original cases in excellent untouched condition.

Ultimately, for this hobby to continue long term, and for more value to be extracted again and again from these pieces of metal, restoration will have to be part of the equation. And again, like cars, the quality of the restoration will be what sets the value.

So it's all a matter of time and money. Big money will always justify itself by rewriting the rules when they're convenient

Original article here and reader comments at the bottom:

https://www.hodinkee.com/articles/ag...king-time-bomb

[Karbo]

Personnaly I think a nice 5513 maxi will top 20K$, till then no bubble. 20k is the highest price incomers still can pay for one of the most desirable watch.

[Karbo]

http://rolexpassionreport.com/19916/...t-predictions/

[JP Chestnut]

I think vintage will go up, unless there's a global stock market crash. At some point, the "smart money" guys are going to start pushing nice trit five digit models as acceptable vintage substitutes. After that, the SL models will become accepted.

Just look at the prices of a nice original finish 16610lv. Is that really a $8,000-$10,000 watch? Even so, I want one - I guess I'm part of the problem too.

[swish77]

Originally Posted by JP Chestnut

I think vintage will go up, unless there's a global stock market crash. At some point, the "smart money" guys are going to start pushing nice trit five digit models as acceptable vintage substitutes. After that, the SL models will become accepted.

Just look at the prices of a nice original finish 16610lv. Is that really a $8,000-$10,000 watch? Even so, I want one - I guess I'm part of the problem too.

Dealers and hobbyists (myself included) have already started pushing early sapphire crystal Rolex sports models as "neo-vintage." Many collectors now consider watches "vintage-like" if it's got a tritium dial/hands and is discontinued, such as early 16600s and 16710s. Some of these watches are now 25 years old and older, so it's understandable. And yes, prices for these models are increasing too.

[Karbo]

Originally Posted by swish77

Dealers and hobbyists (myself included) have already started pushing early sapphire crystal Rolex sports models as "neo-vintage." Many collectors now consider watches "vintage-like" if it's got a tritium dial/hands and is discontinued, such as early 16600s and 16710s. Some of these watches are now 25 years old and older, so it's understandable. And yes, prices for these models are increasing too.

Thats where im going... Just bought a '92 16610 and a 16700 both with tremendous patina.