The vintage market

[motoikkyu]

Based on what I saw in terms of an aging collectors' market at the NAWCC National, I sincerely believe that wristwatch values will someday go the way of pocket-watch values for the same reason --no interest. Young people, for the most part, don't wear watches except to impress older adults. They use the time on their cell-phones. That doesn't mean there won't be collectors, just a smaller percentage of the population than today. Just like there are still postage stamp collectors, but fewer, since few write letters and none lick stamps, it's not a common cultural artifact anymore.

[Toronto Soup King]

Originally Posted by motoikkyu

Based on what I saw in terms of an aging collectors' market at the NAWCC National, I sincerely believe that wristwatch values will someday go the way of pocket-watch values for the same reason --no interest.

Ouch! And it hurts because I think you're RIGHT. We're wearing spats and top hats waving our canes at the youngsters in their newfangled "sneakers". Ah well, as long as we have the internet we can always grumble between ourselves like the LED Calculators Club or the Penny Farthing Appreciation Association do now.

[dysondiver]

in the past i have restored some vintage tin ,, hand making panels and repair sections , for some very expensive cars , and believe it or not trucks ,
but the prices are holding steady now , but things dont sell as fast , the guys who were buying were the guys who owned the trucks etc before they made big money , now they can afford the nostalgic pieces ,,, but ,, they are getting older , the next generation of guys didnt drive or own the same old trucks and cars , so to the new old generation , they are just old trucks and cars.
hope that made sense ,,

[Vincent65]

They don't make them any more. Reference the contents of The Great Pyramids at Giza, but obviously to a much lesser extent. Ergo - prices ain't going down significantly, if at all, ever.
It's ROLEX we're talking about, not some obscure plastic toy brand from the 70s.

[JP Chestnut]

Originally Posted by motoikkyu

Based on what I saw in terms of an aging collectors' market at the NAWCC National, I sincerely believe that wristwatch values will someday go the way of pocket-watch values for the same reason --no interest. Young people, for the most part, don't wear watches except to impress older adults. They use the time on their cell-phones. That doesn't mean there won't be collectors, just a smaller percentage of the population than today. Just like there are still postage stamp collectors, but fewer, since few write letters and none lick stamps, it's not a common cultural artifact anymore.

That's more where you're looking than what you're doing. People who are young and wealthy enough to collect watches aren't going to check them out at convention centers - they are buying through agents and over the internet.

[Etschell]

Originally Posted by Karbo

Hello TRF

Seems that prices for vintage pieces will reach the sun !
When I see prices for 5513 maxi, gilt, double red, daytona etc.. Prices just get higher and higher every month ? When this will stop ? Is it a bubble or the demand is just fast growing ?

simple economic equation

supply < demand. supply will never increase. even if demand is flat inflation will push prices upward.

[motoikkyu]

In respectful response to JP Chestnut, I partially agree but NAWCC also has online chapters now to appeal to the internet generation. I remember when I got into vintage watches, one of the first things I did was to seek out other enthusiasts, and an organized collector's club like the NAWCC seemed like a logical choice. The membership fee was and remains, a bargain. Yes, the forums are more up-to-the-minute, and wealthy people will always collect obscure old stuff (witness the tin-toy prices for mint, early examples) but this is a SMALL group. The core of my statement was that the RAW NUMBER of enthusiasts would diminish over the next few decades. Would you agree with that, or am I all wet?

[speedolex]

Originally Posted by Toronto Soup King

Ouch! And it hurts because I think you're RIGHT. We're wearing spats and top hats waving our canes at the youngsters in their newfangled "sneakers". Ah well, as long as we have the internet we can always grumble between ourselves like the LED Calculators Club or the Penny Farthing Appreciation Association do now.

Correct. It's inevitable.

No idea how to correlate this to the amount of available inventory and if this will impact vintage pricing in the slightest, but there are far fewer wristwatch wearers these past 15 years, it significantly impacts future generations of WIS markedly as there is a smaller pool of wearers generating an even smaller pool of hardcore enthusiasts. If dials and bezels erode at the same rate as potential enthusiasts erode, might be a wash.

That said, another element worth discussions is that today's youth is not consumed with top fashion brands to the extent of their predecessors either, they take pride in their Kia's for being unpretentious in the same way I take pride in my BMW's for being pretentious. This unfortunate Hipster trend impacts a luxury brand like Rolex quite hard, being associated with Rolex feels showy and is counter-intuitive to Millennial thinking.

[JP Chestnut]

Originally Posted by speedolex

This unfortunate Hipster trend impacts a luxury brand like Rolex quite hard, being associated with Rolex feels showy and is counter-intuitive to Millennial thinking.

A Hipster trend towards "authentic" brands with lots of "heritage"... just like Rolex.

Take a look at epaulet, no man walks alone, alden, and Filson - all brands and labels that are beloved by the Brooklyn hipster crowd.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Street_fashion

Is another obvious consumption trend.

[JP Chestnut]

Originally Posted by motoikkyu

The core of my statement was that the RAW NUMBER of enthusiasts would diminish over the next few decades. Would you agree with that, or am I all wet?

Honestly, I'm not sure. The current 20-30 year old set collects sneakers to an extent that would be unbelievable to older people (us?). Also, those horrible G-Shocks are ultra ultra collectible to the young kids.

Is it totally unreasonable to believe that the sneakers and plastic crap watches won't mature into vintage Rolex and fine art or wine as the kids grow up? I'd suggest not. Also, what about the increase in global demand? If vintage takes off in China and India... today's prices will seem like an insanely good deal.

Don't take this to say that I hope the market continues to skyrocket. I think every single decent reference is incredibly expensive. Consequently, I'm focusing on the slightly less overpriced sapphire watches.

[unknown]

Looks like most of you don't have a good memory or were to young in the 1980's

Did you know the hottest watch back than was the bubbleback ... Today only a few are still interested in them and prices imploded
And all those steel sports rolexes ... almost nobody wanted them

Did you know a Rolex Daytona Paul Newman was a watch nobody wanted when they were available at the AD. If you wanted one you were given a BIG discount

Did you know Red submariners were yours for less than 2500 back in 1997, Comexes for a few K, Daytona PN for less than 10K
Panerai ( real vintage) was yours for less than 4 K


All I want to say is, NOBODY knows what the next sought after thing will be
But I'm pretty sure those that voted 'It will never stop" will be wrong ;;;; VERY wrong

[speedolex]

Originally Posted by JP Chestnut

A Hipster trend towards "authentic" brands with lots of "heritage"... just like Rolex.

Take a look at epaulet, no man walks alone, alden, and Filson - all brands and labels that are beloved by the Brooklyn hipster crowd.

I couldn't agree with you more- from a personal level, because I know the history, I can look past the unfortunate blingy perceptions.

I just don't think Hipsters will be able to see behind the curtain, they would sadly eschew Rolex on its yuppie association and slick Miami Vice heritage before even learning about it's innovations and dedication to authenticity.

[Timesurfer]

I believe its here nor there... Its like stock prices or other investments, there is uncertainty and therefore is a risk associated with it... The reality is that no one is sure what the market will be in the future... time travel? Anyone? ;-)

But its what makes it fun, I just buy them because I enjoy them!

[JP Chestnut]

Originally Posted by speedolex

I couldn't agree with you more- from a personal level, because I know the history, I can look past the unfortunate blingy perceptions.

I just don't think Hipsters will be able to see behind the curtain, they would sadly eschew Rolex on its yuppie association and slick Miami Vice heritage before even learning about it's innovations and dedication to authenticity.

That's possible, however the tre chic hipster owner of epaulet is a Rolex guy (maybe even a member here). Who knows though, they might jump on vintage Hamilton or something like that.

[speedolex]

Originally Posted by unknown

Looks like most of you don't have a good memory or were to young in the 1980's

Did you know the hottest wacht back than was the bubbleback ... Today only a few are still interested in them and prices imploded


All I want to say is, NOBODY knows what the next sought after thing will be
But I'm pretty sure those that voted 'It will never stop" will be wrong ;;;; VERY wrong

Ex-bubbleback owner here, I enjoyed mine until it was 'out', couldn't be seen in Manhattan wearing one.

Right now, I think a Hipster in a Rolex is getting off on reverse-consumerism, he's got a GMT that's been beaten and worn and faded and scratched to hell on a leather strap, so his message to the world is "hey, I've got money but I don't care about it, it's not important to me, here's what I think about your status symbol, its living a hard life, not a pampered one". When the shopworn watch trend dies, what then? Old ones, new ones, they're just rich people's watches, not a good place to be for future generations who disassociate themselves from expensive indulgences and brands beloved by their yuppie parents.

[speedolex]

Originally Posted by JP Chestnut

That's possible, however the tre chic hipster owner of epaulet is a Rolex guy (maybe even a member here). Who knows though, they might jump on vintage Hamilton or something like that.

Good discussion, good points all around, I think we'd all agree that we're seeing a volatile future for both Rolex as a brand and watches as an accessory, will be very interesting to see how this plays out.

Thing is, over the 100 year history of the Rolex brand, the brand has always held favor, it's never held it back. This next gen of 30-40 year olds may have a very different interpretation of what it means to be seen in a Rolex, some uncharted waters we're entering.

[JP Chestnut]

Originally Posted by speedolex

Good discussion, good points all around, I think we'd all agree that we're seeing a volatile future for both Rolex as a brand and watches as an accessory, will be very interesting to see how this plays out.

Thing is, over the 100 year history of the Rolex brand, the brand has always held favor, it's never held it back. This next gen of 30-40 year olds may have a very different interpretation of what it means to be seen in a Rolex, some uncharted waters we're entering.

Yeah, this is definitely interesting. I'm a Gen-X guy (Nirvana, grunge, punk rock, screw the corporate music scene, etc) and I've had a Rolex (now many) since I was in college. I'm hardly some blue blood NE type either.

However, I'm priced out of vintage at this point. Both monetarily and from a risk exposure standpoint. I've actually talked to people who have converted their retirement into vintage watches. That seems... unwise.

[Karbo]

Originally Posted by JP Chestnut

Yeah, this is definitely interesting. I'm a Gen-X guy (Nirvana, grunge, punk rock, screw the corporate music scene, etc) and I've had a Rolex (now many) since I was in college. I'm hardly some blue blood NE type either.

However, I'm priced out of vintage at this point. Both monetarily and from a risk exposure standpoint. I've actually talked to people who have converted their retirement into vintage watches. That seems... unwise.

So whats now your collection chest ?

[JohnnyNoDate]

Originally Posted by dysondiver

in the past i have restored some vintage tin ,, hand making panels and repair sections , for some very expensive cars , and believe it or not trucks ,
but the prices are holding steady now , but things dont sell as fast , the guys who were buying were the guys who owned the trucks etc before they made big money , now they can afford the nostalgic pieces ,,, but ,, they are getting older , the next generation of guys didnt drive or own the same old trucks and cars , so to the new old generation , they are just old trucks and cars.
hope that made sense ,,

If vintage watches ever "fall off," it's likely to hold steady. I also collect vintage/classic cameras (i.e. Leica, hasselblad, rolliflex, etc) and it's a very similar market to watches in the sense that no one NEEDS a mechanical watch or camera - and they're both still useable and functional.

I don't think the larger sporty stainless steel watches will ever go the way of the bubblebacks.

[Toronto Soup King]

Those of us that buy to wear will probably be okay whatever happens - it's kind of like my little home, I don't really care what someone else might think it's worth, I'm not selling, that's a question for my beneficiaries after I'm gone. My watches aren't investments to me, they're accessories, parts of my wardrobe and collection of curios, the monetary aspect is far less of an issue when the watch in question is an undistinguished <5K piece. Even if value utterly collapses I'll still enjoy wearing them!

But "the vintage market" in its current form might be a bit overheated, there seem to be an awful lot of heavily patinated Subs and GMTs selling for >10K which might (a) degrade in the hands of their new owner or (b) be found to be worth rather less when the heat dies down a bit. We'll see, I guess!

[Mick P]

Originally Posted by motoikkyu

Based on what I saw in terms of an aging collectors' market at the NAWCC National, I sincerely believe that wristwatch values will someday go the way of pocket-watch values for the same reason --no interest. Young people, for the most part, don't wear watches except to impress older adults. They use the time on their cell-phones. That doesn't mean there won't be collectors, just a smaller percentage of the population than today. Just like there are still postage stamp collectors, but fewer, since few write letters and none lick stamps, it's not a common cultural artifact anymore.

I am inclined to agree with you, if you want an 18thC longcase clock that loses half a minute over a month and is in good condition, you can have mine as it is now valueless. I also have a gold pocket watch that I wear at formal occasions, again it is now valueless.

I am about to put my 1960 BSA 650 twin on the market because the old men who buy these bikes have an annoying habit of dying.

Fads come and fads go and vintage watches are a fad.

Never the less, I enjoy my Rolex, so I may build myself a mini Egyptian style pyramid in my back garden and take all my belongings to be buried with me.

Regards

Mick

[aaamax]

Originally Posted by Mick P

I am inclined to agree with you, if you want an 18thC longcase clock that loses half a minute over a month and is in good condition, you can have mine as it is now valueless. I also have a gold pocket watch that I wear at formal occasions, again it is now valueless.

I am about to put my 1960 BSA 650 twin on the market because the old men who buy these bikes have an annoying habit of dying.

Fads come and fads go and vintage watches are a fad.

Never the less, I enjoy my Rolex, so I may build myself a mini Egyptian style pyramid in my back garden and take all my belongings to be buried with me.

Regards

Mick

Terrific post. Put a smile on my face.
I agree entirely with you. Funny you mentioned the old scooter, In the late 80's their market was much like what we are talking about here, up, up and up and buy-now-or=get-left-behind, up…
I sold my '69 Lightning for a mint and was glad to get rid of it… leaky, crotchety, belching sled that it was. The old Brit that bought it was so tickled and was talking to it like one does to a long lost relative. Quite cool I must say, but he just didn't care about the down side of that bike, only saw his past and joyful youth being rekindled.

[speedolex]

Originally Posted by Mick P

an18thC longcase clock
a gold pocket watch
my 1960 BSA 650 twin
Egyptian style pyramid

FWIW the only item on your list that I have ever heard of is a pocket watch; visiting the Egyptian style pyramid would at least vaguely interest me.

[MILGAUSS88]

Originally Posted by Mick P

Chaps

Every market crashes and then recovers only to crash again. That is a simple fact of life.

It will happen to the vintage market and like all crashes it will bring a sense of reality back. To be honest, it is long overdue to bring new guys into the market.

Mick

I started in general antiques, expanded to fountain pens and then watches.
And let me tell you, yes it can crash, and not come back.
The antique market has been in a 15 year crash. And it does not seem to be getting better. Coca cola advertising is an example of a market that I thought would always be strong, but the majority of that market is down 50% now.

It is a rare segment of the antique market that retail prices are not down 50%. Some segments, the prices are down 90% And even at these new low prices, you have to find a buyer.
I would say pocket watches are down 40%, and that is pretty close to home. My general impression is a lot of the lesser brand wristwatches are down as well.
Rolex, is an exception, Heuer has been an exception.
But it may not be for ever.

Believe me , i do not want this market to go down. I have more at stake than most. But I am not under the illusion that it cannot happen to this market.

[speedolex]

Originally Posted by MILGAUSS88

I started in general antiques, expanded to fountain pens and then watches.
And let me tell you, yes it can crash, and not come back.
The antique market has been in a 15 year crash. And it does not seem to be getting better. Coca cola advertising is an example of a market that I thought would always be strong, but the majority of that market is down 50% now.

It is a rare segment of the antique market that retail prices are not down 50%. Some segments, the prices are down 90% And even at these new low prices, you have to find a buyer.

Believe me , i do not want this market to go down. I have more at stake than most. But I am not under the illusion that it cannot happen to this market.

And with that, I'm going to sell off portions of my collection that I know aren't going to go the duration for me. Thank you for the candor.

[Throttle]

Originally Posted by JohnnyNoDate

Vintage Rolexes will hurt once basic 5513, 1680, and 1675's start reaching 5-figures. It'll price out most newcomers looking to get in and also hurt collectors looking to move out pieces.

5k-9k is the sweet spot for vintages IMO. I imagine buyers in the market for 10k vintage pieces is limited, and pieces over 20k even more so.

There's too many variables involved once you break the 10k barrier; i.e.: value and risk.

My exact sentiments.

[JP Chestnut]

There's no question that general used watch prices are going down. Panerai and IWC have been hammered. However, I think as more people lose on other brands, more money will flow into Rolex.

[Gina Marie]

Timeless designs help. The Porsche 911 is an example....tweaked annually but never "changed." Men have limited options for jewelry....watches are the most obvious. Rolex does a pretty good job of cultivating their line while staying true to their roots. I know when i look at a sub or gmt what to expect. I cannot say the same for some of the other brands that make drastic changes annually and introduce a range of new lines continually.

However, as long as people drive cars classic Ferraris, lambos, porsches, etc. will be in demand. As long as people wear watches then Rolex, Patek, Omega will be in demand. it is when watches, like dial up internet access, go the way of the dodo bird, the market is in danger. If i recall digital watches were supposed to kill off the swiss market in the 70s. i don't think that happened. Will smart watches be successful....i think they will help the market. I think a Telsa is worlds apart from a 308 but having one does not make me desire the other less.

watches are like a high beta stock with limited liquidity...so yes there is risk.

[Karbo]

Maybe one day rolex will include technology, sensors and captors into the bracelet. By doing so rolex would save the design and swiss savoir faire. Then connected watches will stay at what they are doing good : keeping track of my erections.

[JP Chestnut]

Originally Posted by Gina Marie

Timeless designs help. The Porsche 911 is an example....tweaked annually but never "changed." Men have limited options for jewelry....watches are the most obvious. Rolex does a pretty good job of cultivating their line while staying true to their roots. I know when i look at a sub or gmt what to expect. I cannot say the same for some of the other brands that make drastic changes annually and introduce a range of new lines continually.

However, as long as people drive cars classic Ferraris, lambos, porsches, etc. will be in demand. As long as people wear watches then Rolex, Patek, Omega will be in demand. it is when watches, like dial up internet access, go the way of the dodo bird, the market is in danger. If i recall digital watches were supposed to kill off the swiss market in the 70s. i don't think that happened. Will smart watches be successful....i think they will help the market. I think a Telsa is worlds apart from a 308 but having one does not make me desire the other less.

watches are like a high beta stock with limited liquidity...so yes there is risk.

Good post. Watches are already obviated by smart phones and demand for $10,000 watches is, as you say, more jewelry than need at this point.

I've heard from good collector friends, though I can't comment personally, that the Patek market is currently a little softer than usual.

Two good Rolex buys IMO are the current no date Sub and the 42mm Explorer 2 - you can find nice versions of both for under $6,000. I'd be hard pressed to find a 14060m that I would want for less than that these days.