The vintage market

[zapokee]

Originally Posted by Karbo

Then connected watches will stay at what they are doing good : keeping track of my erections.

Did a coffee spit take when I read this.

[samuelhuntington]

Is way off. I always laugh when people compare the wrist watch to a pocket watch. Does anyone really think the wrist watch will fall out of favor like the pocket watch? I have no clue if vintage watches will hold their current value in the future but wrist watches will be popular for a long while and therefore vintage will have its place. Will the future generations just be content with their phone or smart watch to tell the time? Don't think so. Men have limited options for jewelry and most are only comfortable with a watch.

I could be wrong but like others have said in this thread, the supply of vintage watches is fixed and I feel the market will be solid for some time to come.

[BNA/LION]

Will keep going up but may see a pull back, buying opportunity, in the next 5-years...

[springer]

Originally Posted by motoikkyu

Based on what I saw in terms of an aging collectors' market at the NAWCC National, I sincerely believe that wristwatch values will someday go the way of pocket-watch values for the same reason --no interest. Young people, for the most part, don't wear watches except to impress older adults. They use the time on their cell-phones. That doesn't mean there won't be collectors, just a smaller percentage of the population than today. Just like there are still postage stamp collectors, but fewer, since few write letters and none lick stamps, it's not a common cultural artifact anymore.

The NAWCC is definitely not a barometer for wristwatch collectors. In fact, they see themselves as a clock organization. Most of the older members look down upon the wristwatch collecting membership and could care less about this segment of the collector market.

[Vincent65]

All cultures, globally, have worn things on their wrists since the dawn of time. This is the distinct long-term advantage the wristwatch has over the pocket-watch, which, understandably, lost popularity when some genius thought of removing the chain, and adding lugs and bars and a strap. It's just a good place to wear it.

This enduring and universal wrist-adornment culture, along with the massive strength of the brand, and a seemingly equally universal human tendency for looking back (nostalgia), I think, will keep the vintage watch market alive.

I don't buy the tech argument making watches redundant. People enjoy mechanical things. All phones have a camera, too, but many millions of 'proper' cameras are still sold every year.

And it's not always practical to get your phone out of... your pocket... to look at it and check the time.

Smart watches are digital watches!

[Gina Marie]

I think the main risk to watches is the size. We have seen watches increase in size over time. Those watches that were large in the 50-80's are now sought after. A 40mm watch in the 60's was cartoonishly large like some of the breitlings and panerais today. I would be resistant in adding a 1601 or 1801 as the are small now....my wife wears mine. Theoretically a 1655 should be in the danger zone but I love the design too much. The bubble back is way too small for most now and is a forgotten watch for the current collector set. Watches in the 60-70s were 34-40mm for the most part. Now watches are 40-46mm. If 40mm becomes too small then vintage Rolexes are in trouble. I can wear a 40mm 1969 Rolex and it looks just right. If I wear a bubble back it looks like I stole my wife's watch. Lug style is key as well. Most straight lug watches are in demand. The curved lugs or Art Deco lugs are not as sought after, generally.

[Vincent65]

Agreed, but the alarm-clock-on-your-wrist era is done, and they're very silly anyway.
Wrists are not getting that much bigger, so a 40mm watch will always look good.

[Karbo]

I like how vincent is self confident:))

[motoikkyu]

I think the Patek market may be softer these days because many of the older models are smaller watches. I'm in an urban area, I don't see many urban youth wearing wristwatches. If you don't get into the habit at a relatively early age, you might not choose to develop the habit later. The contempt the pocket-watch enthusiasts had for the wrist-watch guys was one of the things that really hurt the NAWCC, but it was the same as many generations of collectors have had for other generations: "Why would you collect THAT when THIS is so much better?" We will end up the same way, like it or not.

[Karbo]

Eric ku interview :
"So are we in a vintage Rolex bubble?
I’m a watch dealer, I make money when I buy and sell watches. But I’m not a financial speculator in that I don’t really hoard things with the idea to sell them at an advantageous time. Like any of these newly formed hard-asset classes, as long as people genuinely driving the growth of the vintage-watch market are genuinely passionate about watches, the watch market will not collapse. Sure, there will be corrections — some severe, some not so severe — but it won’t collapse.
I’m reminded of the people that lost their shirts speculating on the bubble-back market in the ’80s.
My perspective is this. A bubble back is a beautiful object when sitting on a table but I have buddies that are big enthusiasts of your other magazine, The Rake, and with their appreciation for sartorial culture, they are always like, ‘Eric. Dude. Find me a bubble back.’ So I do and they try it on their wrist and then they say, ‘I don’t think the bubble back is for me.’ Why? Because they look dated.
Basically, for me, it comes down to this. The watches that are popular today are core expressions of a brand’s identity and are designs that continue to be super relevant today. They are timeless designs. Vintage Daytonas and Submariners are timeless in their appeal. Those designs are 50 and 60 years old. And they are still super successful. Look at the crazy success of the new ceramic-bezel Daytona. Patek ref. 2499s are amazing looking and the perpetual-calendar chronograph still expresses the core identity of Patek to this day. Same thing with military Panerais. So it’s a lot about design, how excellent it is and how timeless it is. The most successful vintage watches have the same enduring design as, say, a Porsche 911. Also the bubble-back market was fueled by a small group of collectors. Today the vintage market is also being driven by what’s in fashion. Vintage watches have definitely spread to a bigger fashion/lifestyle market. The “ballers”, as you call them."

[Beef]

Originally Posted by Vincent65

I don't buy the tech argument making watches redundant. People enjoy mechanical things. All phones have a camera, too, but many millions of 'proper' cameras are still sold every year.

And it's not always practical to get your phone out of... your pocket... to look at it and check the time.

Smart watches are digital watches!

I just visited HQ Milton and asked Scott and Jacek whether the vintage market was just a bubble or fairly constant for the foreseeable future. With the caveat that they sell vintage watches, their opinion was that it would increase for some time to come. They said they sell lots of vintage Rolex to techies in Silicon Valley who "really like the idea of having something mechanical on their wrist."

Also, they said that there are a lot of people out there who want to set themselves apart from those who wear the current offerings with something a little more rare with an interesting history.

The wrist alarm clock is gone, Rolex joined that fad too late in the game to capitalize much on it. I traded my 42mm EXP II for a 1967 5512. They say they do a lot of similar deals on the larger modern models for vintage pieces.

[speedolex]

Originally Posted by Beef

I just visited HQ Milton and asked Scott and Jacek whether the vintage market was just a bubble or fairly constant for the foreseeable future. With the caveat that they sell vintage watches, their opinion was that it would increase for some time to come. They said they sell lots of vintage Rolex to techies in Silicon Valley who "really like the idea of having something mechanical on their wrist."

Also, they said that there are a lot of people out there who want to set themselves apart from those who wear the current offerings with something a little more rare with an interesting history.

The wrist alarm clock is gone, Rolex joined that fad too late in the game to capitalize much on it. I traded my 42mm EXP II for a 1967 5512. They say they do a lot of similar deals on the larger modern models for vintage pieces.

It's not the 35 year old techy born pre-1980 that is the vintage market's problem. It's the generation thereafter.

Used to be, a kid would get his first wristwatch right around age 15, it's when he started to have after school activities, would need to know the time so that his parents could pick him up at a coordinated spot. It was a must-have, we all had Casio's in our youth, we all remember.

Now that every 15 year old has a cellphone, they don't need a watch for that function. Cellphones became absolutely commonplace by 2005, so if you do the math:

2005 - 15 = 1990

Statistically speaking, anyone born after 1990 had a cellphone by age 15 and the wristwatch was never a part of their lives. No longer did they need the time on their wrists, the cellphone was a clock and the way mom reached out when it was time for pickup after band practice.

Today's 30-40 year old who has the coin for a vintage Rolex will soon be replaced by a new gen of 30-40 year olds who have never had a watch strapped to their wrists in their lives and that's the problem. We're at the tail-end of the supply of 15 year olds who had a Casio when they were kids. A watch goes from something they're used to to something completely foreign. A Rolex goes from an aspirational must-have to an expensive curiosity. I've got 2 boys, born in 1998 and 2001, handsome 18 and 15 year olds with a fanatical wristwatch collector as a father. I have never gotten them to wear a wristwatch, ever. I've as much as said "hey boys, there's $75,000 worth of Rolexes here in this box, they're yours if you want them" and they look at me like I would have looked at my dad if he offered me his collection of Edison cylinder recordings.

[PVR]

I'm going to chime in on this because so much of these posts are speculation that the sky is falling and trying to predict the future. All we can do is look at the past to try and gauge what may happen going forward.

Since the very first Gilt dial watches were produced in the 50's and 60's...has the price ever retracted? I don't mean a blip from a war or recession or stock market hit, I mean an actual decrease in value from previous years?

I can't recall of this ever happening in over 60 years. These watches continue to appreciate, just like real estate because they aren't making any more of them and as time goes on the number of watches remaining is forever decreasing due to loss or damage.

When digital watches came out did vintage rolex prices drop? Since 2005 when the iPhones were released, have vintage Rolex prices retracted? They go up and they don't stop going up. No digital watch, G shock rubber watch, iPhone or whatever else they make will make the prices go down. And if you think think the number of collectors is dwindling you may be right, but how many collectors do you know that own one watch?

One collector may own 20, 50 or 100 watches so, let the collectors die off and lose interest because there will be plenty of living and new collectors to pick up the slack. Prices may stagnate but, will always go up. You can bank on it.

[speedolex]

Originally Posted by PVR

I'm going to chime in on this because so much of these posts are speculation that the sky is falling and trying to predict the future. All we can do is look at the past to try and gauge what may happen going forward.

Since the very first Gilt dial watches were produced in the 50's and 60's...has the price ever retracted? I don't mean a blip from a war or recession or stock market hit, I mean an actual decrease in value from previous years?

I can't recall of this ever happening in over 60 years. These watches continue to appreciate, just like real estate because they aren't making any more of them and as time goes on the number of watches remaining is forever decreasing due to loss or damage.

When digital watches came out did vintage rolex prices drop? Since 2005 when the iPhones were released, have vintage Rolex prices retracted? They go up and they don't stop going up. No digital watch, G shock rubber watch, iPhone or whatever else they make will make the prices go down. And if you think think the number of collectors is dwindling you may be right, but how many collectors do you know that own one watch?

One collector may own 20, 50 or 100 watches so, let the collectors die off and lose interest because there will be plenty of living and new collectors to pick up the slack. Prices may stagnate but, will always go up. You can bank on it.

I'll respectfully disagree on the grounds of the post above yours.

Simply put, in all generations passed you had millions of men who wore wristwatches since they were children, every man alive from 1920 to 2015 wore a watch. In the next 10 years you will see millions of Baby Boomers pass away and you will see millions of men replace them who have never worn a watch in their lives. It's one thing for a watch wearer to step up and invest in a nostalgic Rolex, quite another for a non-wearer to even put on a watch let alone spend $10,000 for one.

It's a very different paradigm, very different business model.

[Beef]

Originally Posted by speedolex

It's not the 35 year old techy born pre-1980 that is the vintage market's problem. It's the generation thereafter.

Used to be, a kid would get his first wristwatch right around age 15, it's when he started to have after school activities, would need to know the time so that his parents could pick him up at a coordinated spot. It was a must-have, we all had Casio's in our youth, we all remember.

Now that every 15 year old has a cellphone, they don't need a watch for that function. Cellphones became absolutely commonplace by 2005, so if you do the math:

2005 - 15 = 1990

Statistically speaking, anyone born after 1990 had a cellphone by age 15 and the wristwatch was never a part of their lives. No longer did they need the time on their wrists, the cellphone was a clock and the way mom reached out when it was time for pickup after band practice.

Today's 30-40 year old who has the coin for a vintage Rolex will soon be replaced by a new gen of 30-40 year olds who have never had a watch strapped to their wrists in their lives and that's the problem. We're at the tail-end of the supply of 15 year olds who had a Casio when they were kids. A watch goes from something they're used to to something completely foreign. A Rolex goes from an aspirational must-have to an expensive curiosity. I've got 2 boys, born in 1998 and 2001, handsome 18 and 15 year olds with a fanatical wristwatch collector as a father. I have never gotten them to wear a wristwatch, ever. I've as much as said "hey boys, there's $75,000 worth of Rolexes here in this box, they're yours if you want them" and they look at me like I would have looked at my dad if he offered me his collection of Edison cylinder recordings.

I'm not sure that I agree with your premise on the future generations. I have a 19 year old college sophomore who loves his Exp I and a newly graduated 23 year old electrical engineer who has worn his 14060 for 4 years. And they say that they have several friends at school that wear Rolex and see them on the wrists of other kids in the bars all the time. They have already weighed in on the division of my collection upon my passing. I've gone ahead and divided them monetarily and numerically as closely as possible to avoid a post-mortem fight.

[Vincent65]

I see plenty of 'kids' (teenagers) here, and elsewhere, wearing fairly significant watches, on a regular basis.

[PVR]

I think speedolex is basing his opinions on his own children and not on the general world population. No question that fewer and fewer people are wearing mechanical watches, but that has no impact on the value of the vintage Rolex market.

New collectors are coming into the game on a daily basis and nice examples are becoming increasingly more difficult to find or buy. Best investment around..

Liquid, appreciates about 10% annually, easy to transport in emergency. Better than diamonds.

[JP Chestnut]

I work in business academia and I see loooooots of kids who wear tasteful (cheap) watches and a few (probably rich) kids who wear something nice.

I've even had students notice that I rotate a bunch of pre-C Rolex watches and start up a conversation about watches. These are 18-22 kids who will be making $75,000 their first year out of college. A decent number of them will buy a Rolex (or something else) with their first I Banking bonus.

[Loevhagen]

This guy wouldn't have a business, if young people didn't wear wristwatches...

It's just we as old farts that think young people just use their mobile to tell time.

https://www.danielwellington.com/us

[BawlaDK]

I for one believe the as long as the interest for modern Rolex watches continues to increase - the vintage market will follow. I have observed many "new kids on the block" buying ceramic models and trying all the new models, before eventually moving onto vintage. Needless to say world economies also play a role, but for the time being I dont foresee and decrease in either demand or prices. What is scary is the fake market for dials etc seems to be getting bigger and bigger and also the copycats seem to be getting better and better. Needless to say this presents somewhat of a problem as I fear that some of those fairly new in the vintage market, may get ripped off by sellers trying to pass on watches with fake dials etc.

[lhanddds]

If you look at the people viewing the general discussion thread, the vintage discussion thread usually runs 10% of that. With this level of interest the vintage world is booming. It doesn't take that much to fuel the vintage market. I believe that the vintage level of watches is just a level of maturation for most watch collectors that are truly into watches and not just jewelry. I believe it will be steady growing with its ups and downs.

[Karbo]

Just a little update....bump

[madonofrio]

This is an old thread but a good one to read, and still relevant!

As a 30 something owner of Aldens, a Filson bag (it was a gift), and a regular at Epaulet... I'd say that Rolexs in general will continue to be collectible. I know quite a few guys in my age range who appreciate them.

However I predict it will be later watches- 80s and 90s that will continue to see the most % growth. People tend to gravitate towards watches they remember from their childhood, especially if worn by their father, relative, or a man they respected early in their lives. Plus right now they're accessible, versus the crazy prices for older vintage.

[motoikkyu]

I know it's an old thread, since it started the sport models have continued to trend higher and oddly, I'm seeing an increase in bubbleback prices that were very low for a very long time. No predictions, just observations.

[jb335]

Originally Posted by speedolex

It's not the 35 year old techy born pre-1980 that is the vintage market's problem. It's the generation thereafter.

Used to be, a kid would get his first wristwatch right around age 15, it's when he started to have after school activities, would need to know the time so that his parents could pick him up at a coordinated spot. It was a must-have, we all had Casio's in our youth, we all remember.

Now that every 15 year old has a cellphone, they don't need a watch for that function. Cellphones became absolutely commonplace by 2005, so if you do the math:

2005 - 15 = 1990

Statistically speaking, anyone born after 1990 had a cellphone by age 15 and the wristwatch was never a part of their lives. No longer did they need the time on their wrists, the cellphone was a clock and the way mom reached out when it was time for pickup after band practice.

Today's 30-40 year old who has the coin for a vintage Rolex will soon be replaced by a new gen of 30-40 year olds who have never had a watch strapped to their wrists in their lives and that's the problem. We're at the tail-end of the supply of 15 year olds who had a Casio when they were kids. A watch goes from something they're used to to something completely foreign. A Rolex goes from an aspirational must-have to an expensive curiosity. I've got 2 boys, born in 1998 and 2001, handsome 18 and 15 year olds with a fanatical wristwatch collector as a father. I have never gotten them to wear a wristwatch, ever. I've as much as said "hey boys, there's $75,000 worth of Rolexes here in this box, they're yours if you want them" and they look at me like I would have looked at my dad if he offered me his collection of Edison cylinder recordings.

I don't agree with you that kids don't wear watches anymore. I'm surrounded at work by 22-28 year olds and they mostly wear watches. Some are into Rolex. In fact, it was a 22 year old who first introduced me to the HQ Milton site when he was looking for a vintage Explorer I. I think your kids not liking watches may be a healthy and natural rebellion against Dad. When I was that age, my Dad was a big Lakers fan, and I would pretend to be a Celtic fan just to get a reaction. They're teenagers.

I have no prediction on the future vintage market but I don't believe wristwatches are going away in my lifetime. Apple seems to agree to with the Samrt watch.

[Kenrocks]

Nice thread to read. I'm new to the Rolex scene (bought my first in Dec 2016) and obviously I can't represent everybody in the part of the world i live in, but Rolex and luxury watches are a big part of the culture for people in Asian cities; and relatively to the States (where I spent a number of years studying and working), I would say that the watch culture is stronger here in Asia.

While it may be true that not all Asian Rolex wearers are into vintage, in general most of them - old and young, male and female - are crazy about having at least a popular model of Rolex or a watch by another luxury brand on their wrist. I can only see this culture growing, even among teenagers, based on some asian fb forum groups and based on daily observations of what people wear on the streets.

And I believe that when the younger generation watch lovers are becoming more wealthy their interest/desire to find and to own a watch they remember wanting or seeing someone they look up to wearing when they grow up will become stronger.

In that light I think the vintage market will always see new part-takers, although there is no way to tell which way prices will go.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[roh123]

I think some watches are peaking now. At least for a while. Prices for very rare or very mint desireable models will probably continue to move up. Average condition or worse of more common models could very well decrease.

What I see now is that a lot of long time collectors are selling pieces. Some perhaps for other reasons than they thinking the market is peaking but they defenetely use the current strong market to cash out. Of course many people buy as well but I am not surprised to see sales like the Phillips Heuer sale in November as an example of long term collectors securing some profit.

Personally I don't really care. If prices continue up my pieces becore more valuable which I guess is good. If they go down it gives me opportunity to buy more pieces. Regardless what happens I wont complain even if todays prices kind of killed some of my passion for vintage watches.

[Micha]

it would be fun to keep this thread going for years to come. In the short term the voters for the top two poll options have been proven wrong already...

[Sublovin]

Originally Posted by Etschell

simple economic equation

supply < demand. supply will never increase. even if demand is flat inflation will push prices upward.

You are making a big assumption that demand will at least remain flat, when in actuality it is quite possible, even probable , that demand will decline.
How do you know that in 50 years people will still demand PN Daytona and old subs?

[Sublovin]

Here's my overall perspective. I will tie it to another interest of mine...cars
Bubble backs were all the rage back when people wanted old brass cars...they romanticized them in their minds. The people who were in a position to buy them years later, remembered them from their youth.
Vintage Rolex from the 60's and 70's are much the same. The people driving the market are mostly people who remember seeing the ads as kids, or their grandfather had one....now they are successful and have the means to fulfill that lifelong dream of owning them.
Cars have done the same. In the 1980's everyone wanted Brass, then it moved to 50's T-Birds and the like. By the turn of the century the 60's muscle cars really heated up.
15 years ago you could buy a 1979 Trans Am for a couple grand...nobody cared. Guess what, now they are six figure cars.
The past few years have been the older European sports cars....cars like Lamborghini Countach and Old Ferrari's. You know why? The people who had posters on their walls of them as kids are now successful and can buy them. They couldn't care less about an old brass car, they have no connection to it.
There are exceptions to this obviously, and the rarest and finest examples will always do well, but as a rule....this is how collectibles work.
The old Coca Cola stuff that people remembered from their childhood....not as hot anymore because those people are going away, and the younger generation feels no connection to a 1950 Coke cooler.
I think vintage Rolex will always have value, but to think the Daytona's and Subs of the 60's and 70's will continue as the hottest Rolex collectibles forever just doesn't seem logical.