Anyone thinks that AP grey market prices will only keep going up?

[bosch88]

Originally Posted by dh1

Which RO is feasible to get at list for a first time buyer?

All of the boutiques say you need to buy a bunch of watches that aren't in high demand (e.g. diamond bedazzled ones) before they will sell you the ones that have more wide aesthetic appeal.

I second this. RO’s, are not easy to get. Been looking. No one has one to sell you unless you are a vvip.

[cryptorx]

These greys are desperately holding onto their ideal selling price but I check chrono24 and it’s the same watches from the same greys sitting there months later, with 30 or so offers for the same “hype” watches. They will lowball you if you’re looking to trade too bc they are desperate to make a profit. Once eviction halts are lifted they’ll need rent $$

[m3jasper]

Originally Posted by jschmidtdmd

I do......the efforts to control the market are as strong as ever.

My issue is I don't know how they do it at 50,000 watches.

At 5k RM, ALS, FPJ can do it.

I don't know how it works at 50k.

40k pieces.

This year, because of production issues caused by the pandemic, they estimate 37,500.

Their strategy of limiting supply to the grey market is working well and paying dividends. Lets see how long this all lasts, it doesn't make sense, imo.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by m3jasper

40k pieces.

This year, because of production issues caused by the pandemic, they estimate 37,500.

Their strategy of limiting supply to the grey market is working well and paying dividends. Lets see how long this all lasts, it doesn't make sense, imo.

I'm sorry but they are failing to limit supply to the grey market.

Have you seen how many new RO's have popped up in the past week on the grey market?

[dh1]

Originally Posted by cryptorx

These greys are desperately holding onto their ideal selling price but I check chrono24 and it’s the same watches from the same greys sitting there months later, with 30 or so offers for the same “hype” watches. They will lowball you if you’re looking to trade too bc they are desperate to make a profit. Once eviction halts are lifted they’ll need rent $$

I've actually been calling around (quite a bit) about these (e.g. 15202ST), and the pattern I've seen is that there are 30+ listings but none of them have the watches!

They all put them at high prices and then if you ask they will go and try to source one. So they put a high price with some headroom to buy from some other source. Maybe other dealers anchor off of the price points from their peers, and you get a continuous creep up of the listing price because each is including headroom and then bumping when they see others bump.

I'd say > 50% of the listings on Chrono24 are at places that don't have the piece at all when you contact them. Weeks later the piece is still listed...

[dh1]

Originally Posted by cryptorx

These greys are desperately holding onto their ideal selling price but I check chrono24 and it’s the same watches from the same greys sitting there months later, with 30 or so offers for the same “hype” watches. They will lowball you if you’re looking to trade too bc they are desperate to make a profit. Once eviction halts are lifted they’ll need rent $$

I've actually called around a lot recently on some of these that show 30+ so watches (15202ST), and I've found a different pattern.

I don't get the impression are just sitting there unsold. When I call in, most of the dealers say they don't have the item and will have to source one. So it seems possible they adding some padding to the prices to give some headroom in case they have to buy it. Then maybe other dealers anchor off of the newly increased prices and increase theirs too, making stuff listed on chrono24 creep up and up.

I'd say > 50% of the listings on Chrono24, I call the dealer and they don't have it. Then it's still listed weeks later...

[chiscott_29]

Originally Posted by dh1

I've actually called around a lot recently on some of these that show 30+ so watches (15202ST), and I've found a different pattern.

I don't get the impression are just sitting there unsold. When I call in, most of the dealers say they don't have the item and will have to source one. So it seems possible they adding some padding to the prices to give some headroom in case they have to buy it. Then maybe other dealers anchor off of the newly increased prices and increase theirs too, making stuff listed on chrono24 creep up and up.

I'd say > 50% of the listings on Chrono24, I call the dealer and they don't have it. Then it's still listed weeks later...

That's how 90% of the listings work, which is why I refer to C24 as a cesspool. If you hear the words "I need to source it", unless you genuinely trust them and have worked with them, you should run. You're adding 10% to your price for everybody in the "sourcing line".

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by chiscott_29

That's how 90% of the listings work, which is why I refer to C24 as a cesspool. If you hear the words "I need to source it", unless you genuinely trust them and have worked with them, you should run. You're adding 10% to your price for everybody in the "sourcing line".

Most of the listings in C24 are "fake" in that they don't have inventory.

Think of it this way, if you had the real watch in inventory, why would you use a stock photo? That's what most of the listings are.

[cryptorx]

Originally Posted by dh1

I've actually been calling around (quite a bit) about these (e.g. 15202ST), and the pattern I've seen is that there are 30+ listings but none of them have the watches!

They all put them at high prices and then if you ask they will go and try to source one. So they put a high price with some headroom to buy from some other source. Maybe other dealers anchor off of the price points from their peers, and you get a continuous creep up of the listing price because each is including headroom and then bumping when they see others bump.

I'd say > 50% of the listings on Chrono24 are at places that don't have the piece at all when you contact them. Weeks later the piece is still listed...

Yes I have noticed this too. I asked about a piece a while ago and the grey said they expected an incoming in about a month they could sell to me. But never followed up lol. They are going off the basis of making profit. A grey might be buying from a grey who bought from another grey. *shrugs* So really the grey market (when I say this I’m mostly meaning chrono) runs off intangibles.

[Ichiran]

Rising tide lift all boats. When people sell their sport Rolex at 30k, they will also have more cash to spend on other watches, it's like knock-on effect on Patek and AP pricing too.

[GreenLantern]

Bubbles pop.

[supernova]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

Bubbles pop.

Only if it is a bubble in the first place, which I do not think it is.

[NYG1121]

Originally Posted by supernova

Only if it is a bubble in the first place, which I do not think it is.

SS rolex models certainly are. No way a standard sub is worth 18-20k. AP is still mostly reasonable outside of the jumbo..