How do the new record prices for vintage Rlx affect the overall Rolex vintage market?

[The moose]

With the Bao Dai and "The Legend" breaking records how do you think this will affect overall prices of vintage Rolex?

The more collectible Rolex models will probably be positively affected but I think that the more generic pieces that the common man can afford also will be positively affected...do you agree?

A pretty regular, IMO, a full set 1601 was sold on the same action for 6200 CHF, which is a bit crazy...looked mint though...

Anyhow back on topic, I know that these record breaking pieces are really special and therefore commands a lot higher prices then a regular "mass produced" vintage Rolexes but doesn't this also mean that people besides the watch interested people, the watch collectors etc. also open their eyes to collecting Rolex as an investment?


Have high hopes for my RG 1601, my WG 1803 and my red 1680 as investments (nothing like these extreme priced guys, but pretty nice anyway)
I told my WIS-friend that it will be interesting to see their value in the future...he replied "It's even more interesting for me to see if you ever will sell them!" : )...good point...

[roh123]

Prices continue up but I think it's important to note that super prices are for extremely rare things in fantastic condition. The DJ you mention was NOS and the same for the big reds discussed in other threads. Watches in poor condition passed or sold "cheap" so it is clear to say that condition is more king than ever.

For the future I think what's popular today will continue to be popular tomorrow. Less popular references will probably go up with the overall vintage market but I don't see certain Rolex models making a charge. What is already crazy will continue and expensive watches in less than perfect condition will be very tough to move.

[The moose]

Originally Posted by roh123

Prices continue up but I think it's important to note that super prices are for extremely rare things in fantastic condition. The DJ you mention was NOS and the same for the big reds discussed in other threads. Watches in poor condition passed or sold "cheap" so it is clear to say that condition is more king than ever.

For the future I think what's popular today will continue to be popular tomorrow. Less popular references will probably go up with the overall vintage market but I don't see certain Rolex models making a charge. What is already crazy will continue and expensive watches in less than perfect condition will be very tough to move.

I agree but I also think that watches sold at these prices attracts all types of interest from people of all kind that might not have the time, knowledge or interest to care about condition and just by a vintage Rolex for the sake of it...more interest equals more demand...

[motoikkyu]

I'm old enough to remember when bubblebacks demanded top dollar in the 1980s. No one thought the demand for THOSE would ever end. There were aftermarket companies manufacturing replacement gold cases THEN, before computer-milling and 3-D printing and the like.

I am NOT disagreeing with any of the opinions posted, just reminding all how very hard it is to predict the future, especially as fashion dictates the trends of what people wear. Rare examples in perfect condition, as has been stated, will always be the most valuable, even if the percentage of the population that collects them shrinks to a handful of enthusiasts.

Japanese woodblock prints are very much down in value, they are out of fashion these days. You can acquire pieces for $200 that were double and triple that ten years ago. But the truly rare examples remain in the thousands. Will they ever come back into fashion? No one knows.

One of my favorite quotes, and I can't credit who originated it, "Condition only matters on the SECOND one that you buy."

[BristolCavendish]

Rarity, demand and overall uniqueness of the watch model aside, timepieces formerly owned (or worn) by famous and/or historical figures will probably be the ones that command the highest asking prices.

The Dalai Lama's 12 Rolexes (along with his Patek Philippe) could fetch some major bucks later down the road. Others include whatever Rolex models Eric Clapton had previously owned come auction time.

[swish77]

Originally Posted by roh123

For the future I think what's popular today will continue to be popular tomorrow. Less popular references will probably go up with the overall vintage market but I don't see certain Rolex models making a charge. What is already crazy will continue and expensive watches in less than perfect condition will be very tough to move.

Agreed, to a point. There are so, so few "perfect" or NOS vintage Rolexes out there of any reference _ and shrinking every day _ that I actually think less than perfect examples will also continue to become more expensive and tougher to find. I don't mean trashed watches, but ones that are "honest" worn examples in good shape.

When a collector or just a watch lover wants a certain reference and there are no "perfect" ones available, the next best watches will be the ones that sell.

[greekbum]

Its like the stock market at $1 nobody wants it...at $20 they say if it goes back down ill buy it....at $50 they say I will short it its gonna crash and at $100 they are buying cause its going to $200. There is a mania in vintage Rolex right now. Where are we in the cycle is the big question.

[Sky21]

Great analogy, personally I hope we're toward the end of the wild ride and it starts to come back down. But there seems to be no end in sight.

[The moose]

When a collector or just a watch lover wants a certain reference and there are no "perfect" ones available, the next best watches will be the ones that sell.[/QUOTE]

That's very true...and the less semi-good watches (when it comes to condition) there are in the market will make worse watches also increase in price...

[The moose]

Originally Posted by greekbum

Its like the stock market at $1 nobody wants it...at $20 they say if it goes back down ill buy it....at $50 they say I will short it its gonna crash and at $100 they are buying cause its going to $200. There is a mania in vintage Rolex right now. Where are we in the cycle is the big question.

I 100% agree...crazy actually...

[seankonners]

ditto

[andrewtan07]

I think in the modern world of ours, the watches designed and launched every year during SIHH/BaselWorld seems to be looking for ideas to move forward. Last 8-10 years were ideas of new materials used in the construction of new watches. Lately for the last 2-3 years, I see the big brands are looking back at their past .. "thinking vintage".

This has shown results with the sales of the models chased under the "vintage" manufacture. This year, we have the SINGLE Red SeaDweller and I believe the sales should be pretty good.

In my opinion, vintage will never lose its flavor with many collectors. Every year, there are less and less vintages watches around because of damage, loss, etc. And vintage parts are getting harder and harder to source. I am collecting vintage Rolexes mainly for the love of the history of Rolex and the significance of the many Sports models back in 1950s all the way down to 1980s. Vintage prices will never go down but it will move upwards in cycles over the years. I used to buy a Rolex 5513 at only USD2200 and not it's going at USD8000+ for one. I wonder in 20 years from now, how will it be?

Enjoy your vintages!

[lee fowler]

Originally Posted by greekbum

Its like the stock market at $1 nobody wants it...at $20 they say if it goes back down ill buy it....at $50 they say I will short it its gonna crash and at $100 they are buying cause its going to $200. There is a mania in vintage Rolex right now. Where are we in the cycle is the big question.

That kinda sums it up for me.

[The moose]

Originally Posted by andrewtan07

I think in the modern world of ours, the watches designed and launched every year during SIHH/BaselWorld seems to be looking for ideas to move forward. Last 8-10 years were ideas of new materials used in the construction of new watches. Lately for the last 2-3 years, I see the big brands are looking back at their past .. "thinking vintage".

This has shown results with the sales of the models chased under the "vintage" manufacture. This year, we have the SINGLE Red SeaDweller and I believe the sales should be pretty good.

In my opinion, vintage will never lose its flavor with many collectors. Every year, there are less and less vintages watches around because of damage, loss, etc. And vintage parts are getting harder and harder to source. I am collecting vintage Rolexes mainly for the love of the history of Rolex and the significance of the many Sports models back in 1950s all the way down to 1980s. Vintage prices will never go down but it will move upwards in cycles over the years. I used to buy a Rolex 5513 at only USD2200 and not it's going at USD8000+ for one. I wonder in 20 years from now, how will it be?

Enjoy your vintages!

Great input! Very true. Crazy to see insert sell for 4K or rivet 6636 bracelets for 2,5k etc.
The upswing in prices when it comes to parts has just been crazy!

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by greekbum

Its like the stock market at $1 nobody wants it...at $20 they say if it goes back down ill buy it....at $50 they say I will short it its gonna crash and at $100 they are buying cause its going to $200. There is a mania in vintage Rolex right now. Where are we in the cycle is the big question.