Talking Stocks 2.0

[jaisonline]

I also picked up COTY call leaps recently. Jan 20 2023 $12.

[hkuo]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

I also picked up COTY call leaps recently. Jan 20 2023 $12.

I bought 14 of them today so I’m guessing you bought the other 9? :D

[7sins]

Patience will be rewarded on everyone's COTY 2023 calls. Just remember 28% of COTY sales are in Western Europe and lockdowns have been extended into July. This means next quarter ER could be volatile, will add along the way and keep DCAing. By next year this should be an absolute homerun.

I was talking with Logo and he brought up a great point, that A LOT of makeup has expired and or has a limited shelf-life. That means it will need to be replaced as restrictions are lifted and normalcy returns. Looking for june 2022 option chain to open and will look to add there. LOTS of OI in those $15c Jan 2023 calls, almost 5 to 1 call to put ratio on the 2023 option chain which is encouraging.

[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Patience will be rewarded on everyone's COTY 2023 calls.

50 12c added on Monday, dipping my toe back in here, let's roll!

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Definitely a concern with shares unlocking, I think current float is 67m shares and it will be closer to 800M after unlocking. I have found share unlocks to be much more detrimental for companies that are grossly overvalued, like the play we did on $SNOW a few months back. Not so much the case here with SOFI and from my experience, share unlocks from IPOs have been more severe than SPACS. Typically they bounce back if they were not overvalued.

The question is, when shares unlock, how many look to cash in and sell or hold (or do investors see more upside and not sell, new $30pt helps)? If more look to sell, I am not sure we can hold $22 levels. My personal plan is to trim about 30% of my warrants, should SOFI dip or pullback with the market, I will use that cash along with adding additional monies to 2023 leaps for SOFI. One could also buy one month puts, $20P are ~$1.15 as insurance protection against a long position should an unlock takes the wind out of its sails. SOFI is a long term hold for me and will look to add where I can.

i feel like sofi is in a bit of a weird position right now. i'm keeping an eye out on it daily because i do want to add more into it but the 2023 leaps have huge premiums (i'm already up 90% on them and i got in lateish) so i'm kind of just stuck sitting on the sidelines. interesting that you're planning to sell some of your warrants. are you planning on doing that if the price hits a certain point on a dip or have you already started to offload some?

[7sins]

More great PR on Coty from Nasdaq writeup: https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/4-re...ers-2021-06-17

Similar to what I have been saying over the last few pages here. Looks like price suppression this week to keep it under $9 as options expire tomorrow, would expect the same tomorrow. Looking at adding further ITM 2022 calls depending where momentum goes but being cautious. Hoping we get back to $8 here if volatility picksup during traditional seasonal weakness.

Originally Posted by huncho

i feel like sofi is in a bit of a weird position right now. i'm keeping an eye out on it daily because i do want to add more into it but the 2023 leaps have huge premiums (i'm already up 90% on them and i got in lateish) so i'm kind of just stuck sitting on the sidelines. interesting that you're planning to sell some of your warrants. are you planning on doing that if the price hits a certain point on a dip or have you already started to offload some?

Dug through their S1 again. Float is 60m shares, outstanding is 800M shares. According to the S1 and them being above $18.50, 50% of non-trading shares will be available. That is 370M shares added to the float, that does NOT mean they will be sold or put pressure on the stock. However, market could anticipate those shares will sell and see price decline week prior to those shares being added to the float. IF that is the case, avg volume at 7M daily shares will be a challenge to absorb if we see higher sell volume come to the market. Also, remember, more shares added to the float, means more shares available to short and the current 65% borrow rate should decline. This could then allow easier access to shorting.

Either way, I do not have a crystal ball and the stock could continue to rise right after lockup. Knowing my luck, Reddit will skyrocket the stock right after I trim. In the long run I am a HUGE believer in SOFI and think a $30PT is just the beginning in the next 12 months. That aside, there is nothing ever wrong with taking a gain. This is a fundamental part of my process, my warrants were purchased close to $4.50 and trade above $9. Never went broke taking 100% gains. I will trim 30% of my exposure to cash going into the end of the month. If the stock pulls back due to lockup, I will add to jan 2023 calls. If the stock shrugs off the lockup, I'm still participating with the rest of my remaining position. There will always be another 5-10% market pullback and I will add during that period to oversold options opposed to chasing momentum.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 7sins

More great PR on Coty from Nasdaq writeup: https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/4-re...ers-2021-06-17

Similar to what I have been saying over the last few pages here. Looks like price suppression this week to keep it under $9 as options expire tomorrow, would expect the same tomorrow. Looking at adding further ITM 2022 calls depending where momentum goes but being cautious. Hoping we get back to $8 here if volatility picksup during traditional seasonal weakness.




Dug through their S1 again. Float is 60m shares, outstanding is 800M shares. According to the S1 and them being above $18.50, 50% of non-trading shares will be available. That is 370M shares added to the float, that does NOT mean they will be sold or put pressure on the stock. However, market could anticipate those shares will sell and see price decline week prior to those shares being added to the float. IF that is the case, avg volume at 7M daily shares will be a challenge to absorb if we see higher sell volume come to the market. Also, remember, more shares added to the float, means more shares available to short and the current 65% borrow rate should decline. This could then allow easier access to shorting.

Either way, I do not have a crystal ball and the stock could continue to rise right after lockup. Knowing my luck, Reddit will skyrocket the stock right after I trim. In the long run I am a HUGE believer in SOFI and think a $30PT is just the beginning in the next 12 months. That aside, there is nothing ever wrong with taking a gain. This is a fundamental part of my process, my warrants were purchased close to $4.50 and trade above $9. Never went broke taking 100% gains. I will trim 30% of my exposure to cash going into the end of the month. If the stock pulls back due to lockup, I will add to jan 2023 calls. If the stock shrugs off the lockup, I'm still participating with the rest of my remaining position. There will always be another 5-10% market pullback and I will add during that period to oversold options opposed to chasing momentum.

that's true about always having another opportunity for a dip. i'm keeping a close eye on this one for the time being, my cost basis on the warrants is around 5.2 so i'm a little under what you are in terms of % profit. right now i think if it goes to 25+ i might take some profits but not trying to do anything too crazy here because it's the one stock i'm super long on whereas everything else i have is kind of a 1 year play for me. i definitely feel like the price might be a bit too high right now given where they are financially, so a small sell off wouldn't surprise me, but obviously no one ever knows and like you said if reddit gets in then logic goes out the window lol

[logo]

Originally Posted by 7sins

More great PR on Coty from Nasdaq writeup: https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/4-re...ers-2021-06-17

Thanks for sharing, nice article. I think the fact that COTY is still cheap compared to competitors in this space, and that they gave conservative guidance last ER both bode well for us leading into the fall. Under-promise, over-deliver with a very reasonable share price and we’ll see our reward before too long. This is one I could see rocketing huge at some point rather than a slow steady rise once the secret is out.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by logo

Thanks for sharing, nice article. I think the fact that COTY is still cheap compared to competitors in this space, and that they gave conservative guidance last ER both bode well for us leading into the fall. Under-promise, over-deliver with a very reasonable share price and we’ll see our reward before too long. This is one I could see rocketing huge at some point rather than a slow steady rise once the secret is out.

That is exactly right my friend, I still have short term concern on next ER giving Europe's lag to lift restrictions and return to normalcy coupled with COTY's large marketshare in Europe. I think we can all agree this will be much higher next year, patience will pay off here. The jan 2023 $10C are getting hammered today, down 12%. Last trade 1.90 which is now the YTD low even though we are no where near the YTD low for the SP. I will look to lower my cost here and DCA.

EDIT executed coty jan 2023 10C, low balled the bid and got in at 1.95 to bring my avg cost down. These are selling off disproportionately on the 2023 option chain. Will add if it keeps trending down.

[904VT]

I’d probably avoid financials if I was looking right now. James Gorman says his employees that don’t return to NYC deserve a pay cut. Also said can’t come into his NY offices without being vaccinated.

Seems more like a personal choice, since we ignore other public health crisis. The direct correlation between pay and status though, seems like a potential violation of American with disabilities act since pay is seemingly directly tied.

Financials seem to move in unity. I’d take this as a negative to both talent recruitment (and retention) and potentially legally (may not be immediate, but long term).

Personally looking at quality value and hard assets for personal holdings. And those that offer inflation pass thru to earnings.

[JParm]

Trimmed some off the top here, as we have been running pretty strong on the growth side.

Just a bit to lock in some profit and anticipation of some ups and downs this summer.

[logo]

lol COTY up almost 5% and my 2023 calls are stagnant. They'll catch up, but just funny to see the bid at 30 cents lower than yesterday's price for the option.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by logo

lol COTY up almost 5% and my 2023 calls are stagnant. They'll catch up, but just funny to see the bid at 30 cents lower than yesterday's price for the option.

What strike do you have? ATM and OTM I see both positive double digits for 2023 today? Lower volume, if you are further OTM, the spread will compress on bid/ask and you will see a nice move. The $12C is a 40% spread, that is not sustainable, bid should be closer to 1.5 to 1.6.



COTY and Sue did an exceptional job this morning at Jefferies conference. Also note, mask mandates around europe are being lifted, this will be a nice tailwind.

No more masks in Spain
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...26-2021-06-18/

No more masks in Italy
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/...pandemic-slows

No more masks in Switzerland
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...es-2021-06-23/

Etc etc you will see that trend to continue across all of Europe. Bodes well for the long run and we are firmly back above $9. Notably on very strong volume today. Still firmly believe we see volatility for Q2 ER and then real momentum pick backup in Q3 when all mandates are lifted and people are back out to full normalcy for an entire quarter. As you mentioned in our conversation, the fact a lot of makeup has expired during covid and needs to be replaced I think is something most people are overlooking, revenue next few quarters on YoY comps will be off the charts.

For those on $SABR, they announced today an increase in expected Q2 revenue due to travel demand picking up as we have been anticipating for awhile now, moved quickly back above $14: https://finance.yahoo.com/m/9d9a073c...t-outlook.html

[logo]

Originally Posted by 7sins

What strike do you have? ATM and OTM I see both positive double digits for 2023 today? Lower volume, if you are further OTM, the spread will compress on bid/ask and you will see a nice move. The $12C is a 40% spread, that is not sustainable, bid should be closer to 1.5 to 1.6.



COTY and Sue did an exceptional job this morning at Jefferies conference. Also note, mask mandates around europe are being lifted, this will be a nice tailwind.

No more masks in Spain
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...26-2021-06-18/

No more masks in Italy
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/...pandemic-slows

No more masks in Switzerland
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...es-2021-06-23/

Etc etc you will see that trend to continue across all of Europe. Bodes well for the long run and we are firmly back above $9. Notably on very strong volume today. Still firmly believe we see volatility for Q2 ER and then real momentum pick backup in Q3 when all mandates are lifted and people are back out to full normalcy for an entire quarter. As you mentioned in our conversation, the fact a lot of makeup has expired during covid and needs to be replaced I think is something most people are overlooking, revenue next few quarters on YoY comps will be off the charts.

For those on $SABR, they announced today an increase in expected Q2 revenue due to travel demand picking up as we have been anticipating for awhile now, moved quickly back above $14: https://finance.yahoo.com/m/9d9a073c...t-outlook.html

Yeah I have the $12 ones. They'll pick up eventually, and I'll watch them closely to see where we are at headed into the next ER and probably trim some down.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by logo

Yeah I have the $12 ones. They'll pick up eventually, and I'll watch them closely to see where we are at headed into the next ER and probably trim some down.

You'll be more than fine, ONLY 2 size at 1.32 bid, just need some volume and you will see a 30% move as the spread compresses, which at this pace COTY is is now positive 6.5% after a stagnant couple of days. Going to be a winner for sure end of year into next year.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by logo

Yeah I have the $12 ones. They'll pick up eventually, and I'll watch them closely to see where we are at headed into the next ER and probably trim some down.

I'm sure you saw today that dislocation closed, looking like your Coty $12C positive 22% today and I suspect more by end of day.

I know a lot of you are on this train. Reason SP has moved 8% in the last two days was their exceptional presentation at Jefferies earlier this week and really highlighted their turnaround story. This was updated from their last presentation I posted the slides from, the new slides I think are important are below. Most notably look at their transformation on turning the company around with their strategic initiatives, MASSIVE increase in YoY Margin and adj EBITDA (this is only going to grow), 300M savings this year and 600m savigs through 2023 projected. The street will also like their reducing debt focus. I think more importantly, looking at transformation, look at the 300bp increase in margin compared to 2019 when the economy was fully open. Hope you guys didn't miss this train, certainly wasn't shy about highlighting Coty when it fell after ER haha.

[CoveWatch]

Originally Posted by 7sins

I'm sure you saw today that dislocation closed, looking like your Coty $12C positive 22% today and I suspect more by end of day.

I know a lot of you are on this train. Reason SP has moved 8% in the last two days was their exceptional presentation at Jefferies earlier this week and really highlighted their turnaround story. This was updated from their last presentation I posted the slides from, the new slides I think are important are below. Most notably look at their transformation on turning the company around with their strategic initiatives, MASSIVE increase in YoY Margin and adj EBITDA (this is only going to grow), 300M savings this year and 600m savigs through 2023 projected. The street will also like their reducing debt focus. I think more importantly, looking at transformation, look at the 300bp increase in margin compared to 2019 when the economy was fully open. Hope you guys didn't miss this train, certainly wasn't shy about highlighting Coty when it fell after ER haha.

Thanks for bringing this and highlighting it. Fortunately I was able to get in some $10c and $15c leaps when you mentioned it.

[logo]

NKE absolutely CRUSHED earnings. I've been averaging into calls the past few months, as I believed all that China business a few months ago was just noise and an over-reaction. Would not be surprised to see new ATHs here very soon.

[logo]

Originally Posted by 7sins

I'm sure you saw today that dislocation closed, looking like your Coty $12C positive 22% today and I suspect more by end of day.

It was a great day indeed. Volume still low on the Jan 2023 $12c , so I expect even more to gain in the days ahead as they continue to catch up.

[huncho]

pretty big sell off for sofi, guessing in anticipation of a sell off from the unlock. good news is the warrants are finally caught up to the share price though so they're not as low as they were last time it was this price lol

[logo]

Originally Posted by logo

NKE absolutely CRUSHED earnings. I've been averaging into calls the past few months, as I believed all that China business a few months ago was just noise and an over-reaction. Would not be surprised to see new ATHs here very soon.

Sold all my calls at 350% gain. Figure it's not everyday a company the size of NKE has a 14% day, so I figured better to book the profit and look to add again later.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by huncho

pretty big sell off for coty, guessing in anticipation of a sell off from the unlock. good news is the warrants are finally caught up to the share price though so they're not as low as they were last time it was this price lol

Did you mean SOFI? Coty is positive again today. Told yah SOFI would sell off into lockup expiration, I trimmed some warrants for a watch purchase but will look to add to LEAPS soon when the price settles. Down 7% SP on 2x normal daily volume in one hour. Will be fine in the long run, hope we get back to $15 to add more.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Did you mean SOFI? Coty is positive again today. Told yah SOFI would sell off into lockup expiration, I trimmed some warrants for a watch purchase but will look to add to LEAPS soon when the price settles. Down 7% SP on 2x normal daily volume in one hour. Will be fine in the long run, hope we get back to $15 to add more.

yeah meant sofi, that's what happens when i try to post while semi paying attention to meetings

i'm also waiting til next week to start adding to leaps. will probably start if it drops to around 17

[huncho]

Originally Posted by logo

Sold all my calls at 350% gain. Figure it's not everyday a company the size of NKE has a 14% day, so I figured better to book the profit and look to add again later.

350% gain is great, i had a few of those i didn't take before and ended up losing money...hardest lessons learned tbh but i only got into this stuff last year

[Martin]

I'm not buying this weekend, rather let the new week begin, too much risk for me

[Cheng]

I was advised to buy COTY which I did, so will see the outcome in a few years.

[AshCashEmAll]

Coty goes up SABR goes down and then vice versa. It’s actually quite comical to see these swings on my contracts.


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[jaisonline]

Just noticed an interesting $13.07 diff between Churchill Capital IV common shares and warrants. Merger vote set for 7/22. Just extremely volatile & seems Lucid really needs to show something (oh, I don’t know maybe manufactured cars or even reviewer ‘driven’ events) for the stock to stay about $25.

In SOFI news, “Lock-up Pressures are Dwarfed by Bank Charter Upside Potential - Rosenblatt Reiterates Buy PT $30.

We see a unique buying opportunity as a result of this recent selling and ahead of a potentially significant upside catalyst (bank charter approval). Pressure from early investors taking profits (and short-selling ahead of the lock-up expiration) are likely to weigh on the stock in the near term. However, we expect SOFI's bank charter approval process to conclude before year-end (adding >25% upside to our EBITDA estimates). Net/net, our base-case PT of $30 and downside case of $17 reflects asymmetrical risk/reward to the upside."

I did some homework on HZAC. Vivid Seats might never surpass Stubhub but the SPAC shares & even warrants are definitely interesting at current prices. I talked to some buddies in the licensed ticket resell industry and each love Vivid. Looks to be worth it the risk at current levels

[logo]

Curious re SOFI, not sure what the best play is here. Average into shares and sell calls, or buy otm leaps? The 2023 calls seem quite expensive.

[logo]

Also, SABR loading zone in my opinion. That $1 price downgrade has now translated to a price drop of $1.50 in 3 days.