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Old Today, 04:23 AM   #10561
piratfisk
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Old Today, 05:50 AM   #10562
BraveBold
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BroncoOne View Post
Sqwack Box had two “experts” on today predicting opposite moves in interest rates with extreme confidence.

One happens to have an actual vote at the Fed. He’s higher for longer.
I wouldn’t put any more weight behind the Fed’s predictions vs other forecasters. Especially a single member.

This is the same group that didn’t see trouble brewing when others (like Siegel, who I reference above) noted the risks well in advance. When part of my job was interpreting Fed statements, the statements only informed near-term trading tactics and catalysts. Not medium or long-term projections.

You don’t fight the Fed, but you can definitely do well to look past their projections when formulating longer-term strategies. If they had magical insights on macro indicators and where rates will (or should) be, at least some of them would likely have selected a different career…

Look up their backgrounds and work histories sometime. They have resources at their disposal but, again, I would call their forecasting ability equivalent to alternatives (at best). Certainly not superior. Check their dot plot forecast in 2021…
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