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8 May 2022, 03:36 AM | #31 |
2024 ROLEX DATEJUST41 Pledge Member
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Real Name: Danny
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8 May 2022, 04:07 AM | #32 | |
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Agree with you here buddy. Just pointing out that high risk high growth stocks almost always get destroyed in an inflationary environment. We are seeing value stocks take much less of a hit vs high growth low cash flow stocks.
Said another way, if you moved to stay at home stocks in 2020, you were up 3-4x and then now you aren't. Market cycles come and go. Interesting to see how this plays out...but its not a good sign no doubt. Quote:
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8 May 2022, 08:26 AM | #33 |
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The war in Ukraine is a real game changer in Europe. The gaz situation could be utter devastation for European industry - most notably Germany which relies heavily on Russian Gaz. I have friends in heavy industries, for the first time I see sheer dread in their eyes. They used to pay 15 euros for KWH, now they are paying 115, and they follow the war more closely than I follow football. Every-time there is a massive massacre or something outrageous (we have those weekly), there is a push for more sanctions. The thing is the EU countries are in a bundle. For exemple Bulgaria is using Natural Gaz mainly for heating - so even complete cut off, can be compensated by a warm season and supplies from the neighbors. The oil situation is totally different, you cut the Russian oil, and country collapses, which will be a massive whole for the EU. Germany uses Natural Gaz for industry, and simply cannot cut it now, otherwise they are facing a 30% contraction of the economy (The words of the BASF CEO, not mine). So the situation is very very difficult here. The European market is still a massive market for watches. Time will tell, but the war looks will drag for months if not more. Also we have no idea what the piece will look like - Ukraine has suffered conservatively a damage of more than 600 billion dollars on infrastructure alone, without counting the 5 million refugees, tens of thousands of wounded and dead etc. It is a huge country, and the scale of the war is nothing my generation and the generation of my parents have seen in Europe. It surpassed in 10 days the wars in Yuguslavia, which lasted for 10 years (1991 - 2001). So we are having wave after wave of negative news on a daily basis, which does not inspire luxury goods ...
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8 May 2022, 10:13 AM | #34 | |
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1) The watch market is highly intransparent and inefficient compared to public stock markets. 2) Most watches are still owned primarily for wearing and enjoyment rather than investment purposes. 3) Asking prices are a lagging indicator when prices are dropping. I am afraid lots of watches have dropped 20%, 30%, or more from the peak already - in terms of offer prices from dealers that is (with some not buying at all). The Nautilus market, for example, seems to have come to a dead stop where I live, not least because of the war in Ukraine 1-2 flight hours away. Most dealers have not capitulated yet, but their asking prices have become meaningless in light of the evaporated demand from consumers. Nobody seems to know at which price level deals can increasingly get done again. |
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8 May 2022, 01:40 PM | #35 | |
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8 May 2022, 03:45 PM | #36 | |
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I agree with this and its my feeling as well. Offering prices on C24 do not match reality. I would be surprised if you get offered much above 100k for a 5711 steel from a gray. Most of them wont offer anything at all as they are on a “buying freeze”. With that being said, such correction was needed. It will wipeout all the new dealers that came on board in the last 2 years. Hopefully, it will wipe out some speculators as well. Especially the ones who took out CC loans at 20% interest to “invest” on overhyped watches. Lots of lessons will be learned this year. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk |
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8 May 2022, 06:19 PM | #37 |
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Buying time!
Get out and look for good deals way to much money in the market for a crash. |
9 May 2022, 06:16 AM | #38 | |
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9 May 2022, 06:20 AM | #39 |
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Also, no one will collapse without Russian oil, except for Russia. Stop spreading this nonsensical propaganda on a watch forum.
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9 May 2022, 06:51 AM | #40 |
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Uh...I wouldn't be so confident to make predictions, but we have many utility contracts up for renewal in the US in 2022. The rate requote is actually pretty material and aggregated across the board the annual cost is easily the price of an AP...so...yeah, inflation is gonna hurt this year. First world problems for sure. But first world 2022 problems none the less!!!
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9 May 2022, 07:51 AM | #41 |
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9 May 2022, 06:28 PM | #42 |
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Imho it would be quite positive if interest in luxury watches would cool off by a lot. First it would wipe out speculators and all the shady new grey dealers.
Secondly watch distribution would probably be more divers because currently always the same guys get the interesting watches. If this doesn’t change i am afraid all the “collectors“ of AP will share the same gene pool in a few years… |
9 May 2022, 07:48 PM | #43 | |
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Following the Dutch and German watch forums nobody seems worried much. The new arrivals (NA's) keep coming as before. It looks you are in a different Europe than I am. You know, the financial crisis from 2008 got me more worried. And we survived that quite well too. Always look on the bright side. Try, it helps. We all have to die someday.
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9 May 2022, 09:42 PM | #44 | |
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Sure energy costs more, inflation is up but if you have £20k to spend on a watch i suspect you are relatively well insulated from having to turn the gas off. |
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9 May 2022, 10:25 PM | #45 | |
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We members here, usually, have made good money by being clever. Why didn't one invest in being independent from outside energy needs? I couldn't care less if gas or fuel would be going double again. My 380m2 house is low-energy and the little heating we need, 8 weeks per year, is from a heat pump with two vertical 110m deep loops. Solar panels and battery are coming this summer so we will be generating also all electricity we need and sell the surplus. So that's why I can afford a brand new 15500 this year.
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9 May 2022, 10:36 PM | #46 | |
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while i like the idea of going 'off grid' and there are many benefits of doing so, it is also costly.... ...it would be interesting to see how long it takes to recoup the costs of ground source heat pumps/ solar panels etc in your energy bills |
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10 May 2022, 12:52 AM | #47 | ||
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I am a kid from the seventies and will always remember the car free sundays, we played and rode bicycles on the motorways. Fun times. But not so fun as an adult, soaring prices, shortages everywhere. Panic more or less. Sounds familiar? https://www.theguardian.com/world/fr...s-archive-1973 Quote:
Similar today, the government is sponsoring me again for an amount €3225 for the complete solar installation. The full installation will have paid for itself within 5/6 years at today's prices. If they go up even more of course it will be even sooner.
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10 May 2022, 01:40 AM | #48 |
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Of the price threads I’ve seen I like this one best. In particular, price discovery in the watch market is very limited with several dealers controlling so much of the inventory. Also, we know that prices are sticky, particularly in the short term. It is only after several months of depressed demand that price discovery will be better - dealers who need to meet monthly obligations will be forced, at some point, to adjust prices to free up cash. I anticipate dealers such as DSW will have planned for this and will have a proper amount of working capital to meet obligations and continue with the premium pricing he has had for years.
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10 May 2022, 02:51 AM | #49 | |
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Just look at lithium mines for batteries, microchip shortages, wheat in Ukraine etc etc. When the stock market finally removes itself from the oil fix, something will be there to replace it and fight over On the heat pump thing, yeh as a civil engineer I’m always surprised at how few new builds don’t have this technology along with solar etc. while I know it’s not cheap, it would be better to install during the initial build than retrofit it afterwards |
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10 May 2022, 02:57 AM | #50 |
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I agree completely ! But, selfishly, all that does not concern me. I made money on the stock market after the financial crisis and left a happy man. The only thing I own and invest in now is real estate.
Edit: if there is a new huge stock market crash and everybody is scared i'll try to mimic my 2008 behaviour.
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10 May 2022, 03:07 AM | #51 | |
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Don’t get me wrong, they all produce incredible watches and I’m glad online content has been produced to showcase them, but I’m not naive enough to realise that they had a lot of these watches tucked away before doing this. Spotting the next big thing is key….same with classic cars really. I could have owned a Jag E-type for less than 15k 10 years ago..,.try getting one for less than 50-60 now! |
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10 May 2022, 03:08 AM | #52 | |
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10 May 2022, 06:49 AM | #53 | |
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I think the incredible run in the stock, crypto, and real estate markets created a lot of wealth for people who otherwise wouldn't have invested without the crazy pandemic sparked run. Many of those people started buying luxury items at mass scale, thus creating the stratospheric prices we see in luxury items like watches. It'll be interesting to see how these people react to the decline in these asset classes. The wealth affect is a scary thing. My guess is that consumption of luxury goods will recede and prices will get back to some sense of normalcy. I for one have learned over the years from these cycles and am waiting with dry powder to deploy when things go on sale.
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10 May 2022, 07:08 AM | #54 |
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I only hope that Richard Mille is available with 10% discount at the AD!
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10 May 2022, 07:43 AM | #55 | |
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10 May 2022, 07:50 AM | #56 | |
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14 May 2022, 01:02 PM | #57 | |
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On the other hand, may be an opportunity to acquire certain pieces...Journe or application PP in particular :) |
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14 May 2022, 04:06 PM | #58 | |
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2 weeks ago you said the market is still crazy hot and that prices have not dropped at all. this week you said it's oversold and it's time to buy the dip already. |
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15 May 2022, 12:04 AM | #59 | |
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"Tesla is now worth as much as the combined market cap of the nine largest carmakers around the world, including automotive giants like Volkswagen and Toyota. Yet Tesla makes up less than 1% of global car sales." This says it all, there is still A LOT of room to go to the bottom. Invest in yourself, in your property and live. And watches? It's about time the scalpers and flippers leave our hobby.
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15 May 2022, 01:16 AM | #60 | |
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Watches long term I have no clue. But short term, wait till China, Ukraine, and all of this other stuff finishes before you judge. I don't have a crystal ball to tell you when these things will stop, but the market will rebound once they do. Crypto follows the stock market. The stock market will continue to drop as long as China and Ukraine continues. When they resolve, watch what will happen to all markets... |
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