Talking Stocks 2.0

[7sins]

Originally Posted by CoveWatch

Been adding here and there as well, but on lower strikes.. $17c and now $15c


Well last night was fun... really surprised to see the turnaround this morning. Even nasdaq turned green for a moment from down almost -3%. Things are nuts... but as Bryan mentioned, these events are usually followed by an overreaction in the markets. Keeping a close eye to see how things go this and next week for more buying opportunities.

AUPH ER on Monday, national rare disease day, will be watching and listening very closely. Hoping for an aggressive 2022 outlook.

Below is a chart my firm put out yesterday, this takes a deeper dive to all wars and geopolitical events then subsequent returns. Key takeaway is that over time, geopolitical events and wars have little to no impact on the broad markets. This expands on the chart I posted a few days ago.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by CoveWatch

Been adding here and there as well, but on lower strikes.. $17c and now $15c


Well last night was fun... really surprised to see the turnaround this morning. Even nasdaq turned green for a moment from down almost -3%. Things are nuts... but as Bryan mentioned, these events are usually followed by an overreaction in the markets. Keeping a close eye to see how things go this and next week for more buying opportunities.

yeah last night felt like doomsday. have to wonder how much of this has been priced in already but more importantly hope it doesn't get worse over there and casualties are minimal

[Doc Savage]

Palladium continues to be a strong commodity right now. Much of it is mined in Russia.

[hkuo]

Not complaining but why did NASDAQ swing so green today?

[logo]

Originally Posted by hkuo

Not complaining but why did NASDAQ swing so green today?

Because of the reasons we aren't really allowed to talk about on here.

[enjoythemusic]

The Fed's trading desk (and partners) kicked into overdrive, perhaps? Seems they're very busy today as "due to technical difficulties, today’s Treasury outright purchase operation - scheduled for 10:10 AM - will be rescheduled. It is now scheduled to take place Friday, February 25, 2022 at 10:10 AM."

[ts3]

I am always amazed how "cruel" the markets can be. In this case concluding "this Ukraine thing is basically over (within days if not 48 hours), a puppet may run the country afterwards (doesn't really matter), the sanctions won't come at a huge cost to the US, not much else to see here, let's move on".

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by ts3

I am always amazed how "cruel" the markets can be. In this case concluding "this Ukraine thing is basically over (within days if not 48 hours), a puppet may run the country afterwards (doesn't really matter), the sanctions won't come at a huge cost to the US, not much else to see here, let's move on".

"The opposite of love is indifference"

Harsh indeed.

[Laszlo]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

The Fed's trading desk (and partners) kicked into overdrive, perhaps? Seems they're very busy today as "due to technical difficulties, today’s Treasury outright purchase operation - scheduled for 10:10 AM - will be rescheduled. It is now scheduled to take place Friday, February 25, 2022 at 10:10 AM."

May have been plunge team related, for a few physiological (geo) reasons as well. Those who create harm want to be rewarded by reaction, in this case, the reaction was the opposite --- an up-close and although it seems cruel, I am sure there are great intensions behind it, including others who may want to rock the boat a bit while this distraction (travesty) is happening.

[flyboyyy]

I dunno what's up, but on a whim I took a punt and bought some FB/META and SOFI 2023 LEAPS (near the money) this morning as sort of a mid range play and was surprised to see what they did today. Wish I had bigger balls to dive into these things with more gusto, but I'm just hoping maybe they'll buy me a new watch in the next year!

[enjoythemusic]

Makes sense Laszlo. Like during 911 the Pres said keep shopping. Would be nice to see the velocity of M2 tic up more than a bit.

[jaisonline]

Originally Posted by hkuo

Not complaining but why did NASDAQ swing so green today?

Non-political answer & (I’m making this very simplistic) = many feel this will delay / lesson Fed hikes. So tech stocks & growth benefited. This is my take but i’m sure will someone here will have a far better answer.

Investing is going to be violently volatile until further notice.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

many feel this will delay / lesson Fed hikes. So tech stocks & growth benefited.

Just my .02 with change to spare but I don't see how that is plausible, if the war continues, you have to expect commodity and oil prices to further rise. Which means that inflation will continue to rise and the FED will continue to raise rates to combat inflation. I agree some of the forecasts, such as JPM suggesting FED raises 9x this year is absurd but the FED will continue to march on at a similar pre-planned pace. Russia represents only 3% of the world's GDP, this war isn't going to send the global economy into recession and thus IMO, you won't see an overly dovish FED as they are battling inflation not recession. Well, not recession in the near future at least.

[Kowaco]

I think no one cares. Look how fast Afghanistan fell off the radar. Even in the Spring of 2020 during Covid, the market fell and went right back up. Any number of things have happened that would have sent the market into a tailspin a few years ago only last a week at most. We keep hearing buy the dip. I do believe that when the market falls for real it will be hard.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by Kowaco

I think no one cares. Look how fast Afghanistan fell off the radar. Even in the Spring of 2020 during Covid, the market fell and went right back up. Any number of things have happened that would have sent the market into a tailspin a few years ago only last a week at most. We keep hearing buy the dip. I do believe that when the market falls for real it will be hard.

I totally agree with this. Once the initial panic was over and the market essentially realized this really doesn’t pertain to them…..buy the dip!

Gen Z and their stonk apps don’t care about geopolitics

[jaisonline]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Just my .02 with change to spare but I don't see how that is plausible, if the war continues, you have to expect commodity and oil prices to further rise. Which means that inflation will continue to rise and the FED will continue to raise rates to combat inflation. I agree some of the forecasts, such as JPM suggesting FED raises 9x this year is absurd but the FED will continue to march on at a similar pre-planned pace. Russia represents only 3% of the world's GDP, this war isn't going to send the global economy into recession and thus IMO, you won't see an overly dovish FED as they are battling inflation not recession. Well, not recession in the near future at least.

Agreed. I was referring to the temporary 360 degree turnaround we saw today.

Sorry for the Caps. Just copy & paste.
“FED'S WALLER: IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE UKRAINE ATTACK, A MORE MODEST TIGHTENING MAY BE ACCEPTABLE.”

[huncho]

today was absolutely wild. i had a feeling we would maybe close green or about even but never imagined a -450 to +450 swing for the nasdaq. futures don't look too great now though so not taking today's close for much

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by 7sins

SST-WT RIPPPPPPPING today, clipped $1.60+, hope some of you scored the warrants when they hit $1 a few weeks back. Nice to see volume back and warrants not lagging as much, I am not sure this is due to fundamentals (which are excellent) or traders chasing low float stocks. Also SEATW running to $3.20, fantastic gains there.

My buddies Chao and Peter sent me the below which should address verticals and implementation. Personally, I don't quite understand why SOFI wanted to further dilute shareholders when access to money is still very cheap via the debt markets.

SEAT has been really strong the past two weeks. Incredible.. Live Nation’s ER today makes me more optimistic that SEAT ER will be strong as well.

Been digging into SOFI’s purchases. Their national bank charter will allow them to gain higher margin with access to cheaper money,

Galileo and Technisys. Both of these purchases allow SOFI to generate outside revenue while lowering their overhead expense as they innovate in the fintech space. Technisys may have wanted SOFI stock instead of cash. (I would if I owned Technisys IMHO)

Galileo’s digital payments platform enables critical checking and savings account-like functionality via its powerful open APIs, providing companies with an easy way to create sophisticated consumer and B2B financial services. The company’s offerings are accessible via mobile, desktop, and a physical debit card. Galileo’s APIs power functionalities including account set-up, funding, direct deposit, ACH transfer, IVR, early paycheck direct deposit, bill pay, transaction notifications, check balance, and point of sale authorization as well as dozens of other capabilities.

Technisys is a custom software company for bank back-end processing hence the “AWS of banking” comparison. It will create a custom software that ties all the different SOFI software applications (banking, trading, loan application, insurance and credit card etc..) together into one. Kinda like SAP/Oracle enterprise softwares. Also, it can sell its services to other fintech companies like Amazon does with AWS and generate outside revenue.

I think SOFI has all the right pieces. Bought more yesterday under $10. Stared at the $8.80 premarket but then started watching the news instead. Should have bought more at that price. SQ posted great quarterly results…

[BroncoOne]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Just my .02 with change to spare but I don't see how that is plausible, if the war continues, you have to expect commodity and oil prices to further rise. Which means that inflation will continue to rise and the FED will continue to raise rates to combat inflation. I agree some of the forecasts, such as JPM suggesting FED raises 9x this year is absurd but the FED will continue to march on at a similar pre-planned pace. Russia represents only 3% of the world's GDP, this war isn't going to send the global economy into recession and thus IMO, you won't see an overly dovish FED as they are battling inflation not recession. Well, not recession in the near future at least.

Agreed, but I think it takes a 0.5% rate hike next month off the table.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by BroncoOne

Agreed, but I think it takes a 0.5% rate hike next month off the table.

I disagree

50 bp is priced in and nothing has fundamentally changed. If we don't get 50 then the Fed will fall further behind and will be seen as not being serious about inflation

[Divingdeep87]

Thank me later… cBrain stock.

[Kowaco]

Looks like another roller coaster tomorrow. I’m guessing the market will do this for awhile. I’m guessing more social unrest around the world this spring.


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[avidflyer]

AUPH Down 20%??

[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by avidflyer

AUPH Down 20%??

Currently down 31% just before the open.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

I totally agree with this. Once the initial panic was over and the market essentially realized this really doesn’t pertain to them.

Agreed, as once the press is told to move on and stop showing war videos it'll be a nothing burger regardless of what's really happening.

Gen Z and their stonk apps don’t care about geopolitics

When NBC says there are 27 wars happening right now (Gaza, Yemen, Syria occupation by the USA, etc), yet only reporting on one of them....

This will all pass once the press stops reporting on it, right?

[logo]

Originally Posted by avidflyer

AUPH Down 20%??

Revenue forecast is 30% lower than analyst expectations.

[HippoPAPAmus]

Originally Posted by logo

Revenue forecast is 30% lower than analyst expectations.

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[AshCashEmAll]

I’m having a rough day now…


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[avidflyer]

Surprised at the ammount of stocks up….

[huncho]

Originally Posted by chsu74

SEAT has been really strong the past two weeks. Incredible.. Live Nation’s ER today makes me more optimistic that SEAT ER will be strong as well.

Been digging into SOFI’s purchases. Their national bank charter will allow them to gain higher margin with access to cheaper money,

Galileo and Technisys. Both of these purchases allow SOFI to generate outside revenue while lowering their overhead expense as they innovate in the fintech space. Technisys may have wanted SOFI stock instead of cash. (I would if I owned Technisys IMHO)

Galileo’s digital payments platform enables critical checking and savings account-like functionality via its powerful open APIs, providing companies with an easy way to create sophisticated consumer and B2B financial services. The company’s offerings are accessible via mobile, desktop, and a physical debit card. Galileo’s APIs power functionalities including account set-up, funding, direct deposit, ACH transfer, IVR, early paycheck direct deposit, bill pay, transaction notifications, check balance, and point of sale authorization as well as dozens of other capabilities.

Technisys is a custom software company for bank back-end processing hence the “AWS of banking” comparison. It will create a custom software that ties all the different SOFI software applications (banking, trading, loan application, insurance and credit card etc..) together into one. Kinda like SAP/Oracle enterprise softwares. Also, it can sell its services to other fintech companies like Amazon does with AWS and generate outside revenue.

I think SOFI has all the right pieces. Bought more yesterday under $10. Stared at the $8.80 premarket but then started watching the news instead. Should have bought more at that price. SQ posted great quarterly results…

nice bounce from sofi here and earnings tomorrow. looks like you got in at a great price