Talking Stocks 2.0

[huncho]

Originally Posted by m j b

I read in one of my newsletters this morning (Morning Brew, I believe) that 40% of BTC holders are currently under water.

There's really no way to know this, it can only be speculation (or based on reports from dealers like Coinbase) but since (my guess) 90% of crypto investors are too young to have lived through a bear market, it will be interesting to see how long they can HODL out. LOL.

I sold out of my Cardano position at a loss a couple of months ago, but saved myself a 45% haircut. So I guess that's something to be happy about.

Don't ask me about my biotech. :cry:

I also started buying SPY yesterday. Since we (well, me anyway) can't find the bottom until a month after it happens, it's time to start dipping the toes back in, just one toe at a time.

you should've taken one for the team and bought some puts so it was guaranteed to go up

[m j b]

Originally Posted by huncho

you should've taken one for the team and bought some puts so it was guaranteed to go up

LOL indeed. But the spread was just too steep! (yes, I looked)

Futures are up, slightly, this morning. Except for Vinco. Looks like that pop last week got, you know, popped. I did make a little money on that one earlier this year, in and out quickly (yeah, that's what she said) which was good enough for me. Thanks guys, for the recommendation. Not that it makes up for the shellacking that I'm taking on HRTX. OMG.

Apologies for the humor.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Uggi

This is a good point. I too held through 2000 and also through 2008 and ultimately it will swing back upwards if you have the time to ride it out. Obviously nicer if you can liquidate before it happens then buy back in at the bottom but I can’t liquidate my pension and don’t want to liquidate other positions either (I have liquidated some).
The big problem is for those who don’t have time and need their nest eggs in the next 5 years. That is going to hurt. If you have a 10+ years outlook there is still an argument to just hold through it, adding where possible.

That’s my fear personally.

My folks actually fear the markets greatly. Got burnt many years ago. So nothing is at risk.

But their friends are all in full blown panic mode. Many lost as much as 50%. Shouldn’t have been that aggressive at their age. But for sure that’s a common theme.

Even losing 10-20% is crushing to many seniors. Changes the game considerably.

The bad news is just starting. So many of the ripples have not presented themselves yet.

[huncho]

sofi down 18% on earnings beat because upst is down 60% (yes 60%) in one day. very cool

[m j b]

Originally Posted by huncho

sofi down 18% on earnings beat because upst is down 60% (yes 60%) in one day. very cool

Time to lower my cost basis (on SOFI)? I'm already pretty deep in there...

[m j b]

Ooops, trading halted in SOFI. I only had 1K shares, so not in so deep...

[huncho]

Originally Posted by m j b

Time to lower my cost basis (on SOFI)? I'm already pretty deep in there...

staying away personally until it stabilizes somewhere which at this rate could be $2-3 in a few weeks

[m j b]

SOFI up (from its daily lows) now that they resumed trading. Good quarterly results and positive look-forward.

Still down for the day though.

[jaisonline]

Originally Posted by huncho

staying away personally until it stabilizes somewhere which at this rate could be $2-3 in a few weeks

Ditto. I’m not averaging down SOFI as it can easily fall to $2-3. Same for some of my other risky holdings like RBLX, PENN & DKNG. I’ll prob add more “stable” companies instead of the latter ones anyway. In any case, I’m in no hurry.


Just saw AUPH is up 25% for those holding.

[HippoPAPAmus]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

Just saw AUPH is up 25% for those holding.

Yes. Sad when a 25% run still leaves you at +/- half of what your price should probably be, but such is life right now. Lots of new scripts, nearly double what was added last quarter. Earnings guidance was reaffirmed, but does not include potential earnings if Voclosporin gets EU approval. Hopeful for better days ahead.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[hkuo]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

Ditto. I’m not averaging down SOFI as it can easily fall to $2-3. Same for some of my other risky holdings like RBLX, PENN & DKNG. I’ll prob add more “stable” companies instead of the latter ones anyway. In any case, I’m in no hurry.


Just saw AUPH is up 25% for those holding.

I cut my losses today taking a ~50% hit but I'm ok with it. I took the remaining money and put it all into BBIG figuring I have a better chance of seeing that doubling than AUPH in the near term. I still hold some AUPH in my IRA.

[scarlet knight]

I shifted some tech stocks into pharma and consumer staples. Looking at beaten down semis like NXPI and MRVL.

[330ci]

Well... I know it isn't stock related but I sure am glad I didn't buy into my buddies investment advice on Luna too hard. Definitely glad I cut most of my stock positions when I did. Should've just let it all go in January.

I'm sure I sound dumb and crazy, but I've been buying tons of clean copper, lead, gold and silver. Easy to sell when needed,, doesn't take up too much space, and seems to be guaranteed price rises in upcoming years. Been doing my best to get nickels and pennies anytime I go to the bank etc. Pre 2019 nickels are worth close to $.08/ea now. Seems like a safe investment lol

[m j b]

I saw that SOFI popped about 18% today. The only news I could find on it was a Seeking Alpha article pumping the stock because it was oversold.

I ain't buying stock based on one of those slightly-better-but-not-much-more-than-clickbait articles, so I took my profits and ran.

I did "double down" on SOFI last week to lower my cost basis, so I was able to get out this AM with about a 7% ROI, which ain't bad these days.

I'll buy it back after it tanks again.

[hkuo]

Originally Posted by m j b

I saw that SOFI popped about 18% today. The only news I could find on it was a Seeking Alpha article pumping the stock because it was oversold.

I ain't buying stock based on one of those slightly-better-but-not-much-more-than-clickbait articles, so I took my profits and ran.

I did "double down" on SOFI last week to lower my cost basis, so I was able to get out this AM with about a 7% ROI, which ain't bad these days.

I'll buy it back after it tanks again.

Question on how the wash sale would apply here. Overall you’re +7% but your higher cost tax lots are negative. If the stock were to tank all the way down to $3 within 30 days, and you bought back in…would the wash sale get triggered and your cost basis be the higher tax lot cost?

[m j b]

Originally Posted by hkuo

Question on how the wash sale would apply here. Overall you’re +7% but your higher cost tax lots are negative. If the stock were to tank all the way down to $3 within 30 days, and you bought back in…would the wash sale get triggered and your cost basis be the higher tax lot cost?

Ah... I didn't think about that, good point. I also have an IRA, so I could buy it in the IRA which would not affect the wash sale requirements.

Even if I screw up* and lose out on the tax loss, it's not a large amount of money anyway.


* - based on past experience, a likely consideration

[avidflyer]

Target stock.....

[scarlet knight]

Owned Target for a long time. Bought a little more this morning, may take awhile to recover 25%.

[SDGT3]

Originally Posted by hkuo

Question on how the wash sale would apply here. Overall you’re +7% but your higher cost tax lots are negative. If the stock were to tank all the way down to $3 within 30 days, and you bought back in…would the wash sale get triggered and your cost basis be the higher tax lot cost?

Perhaps I missed an old post but did MJB sell SOFI stock at a loss and then buy it back within 30 days and then made the 7+% on a subsequent sale? The wash sale rule only applies to losses not capital gains.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by SDGT3

Perhaps I missed an old post but did MJB sell SOFI stock at a loss and then buy it back within 30 days and then made the 7+% on a subsequent sale? The wash sale rule only applies to losses not capital gains.

Yes he did (the big dummy) but it was only a $300 loss, so no biggee.

Of course, even in a down market, SOFI is up today, which has me second-guessing that last sale. Especially since every single stinking stock I own is down today.

[m j b]

As I write this, the S&P 500 is down 4.3% today. Ouch.

[SDGT3]

Originally Posted by m j b

Yes he did (the big dummy) but it was only a $300 loss, so no biggee.

Of course, even in a down market, SOFI is up today, which has me second-guessing that last sale. Especially since every single stinking stock I own is down today.

Sorry, missed that post, but hope if all works out for you.

With regard to the overall conditions, I still down see any technical evidence of panic selling based on where the VIX is now.

IMO, the price of energy is the key to this sustained inflation and based on lack of spare capacity and China coming back on line with their demand, I don't see the rest of 2022 being any better.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by SDGT3

Sorry, missed that post, but hope if all works out for you.

With regard to the overall conditions, I still down see any technical evidence of panic selling based on where the VIX is now.

Thanks.

Down = don't ???

I'm starting to buy again, quality stuff, not crap like SOFI or BBIG. No offense.

[SDGT3]

Originally Posted by m j b

Thanks.

Down = don't ???

I'm starting to buy again, quality stuff, not crap like SOFI or BBIG. No offense.

Yes, sorry didn't proof read before posting. DON'T is what I meant to write.

We might get a dead cat bounce near term, maybe as high as 7-10% but that will be a head fake. The Fed is raising rates and clearing the balance sheet at the same time inflation seems to be persistent. The consumer is willing to spend this summer due to being cooped up for a couple years and higher than normal savings rates, but come fall reality will set in that inflation is not going away as long as oil and gas continue to be sky high.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by SDGT3

Yes, sorry didn't proof read before posting. DON'T is what I meant to write.

We might get a dead cat bounce near term, maybe as high as 7-10% but that will be a head fake. The Fed is raising rates and clearing the balance sheet at the same time inflation seems to be persistent. The consumer is willing to spend this summer due to being cooped up for a couple years and higher than normal savings rates, but come fall reality will set in that inflation is not going away as long as oil and gas continue to be sky high.

rough day today.

my concern about the Fed is that they act super slow. and appear to have zero idea.

the markets might very well be correcting now, inflation might very well be slowing....but they would still raise rates because they are dumb and not paying attention.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by m j b

Thanks.

Down = don't ???

I'm starting to buy again, quality stuff, not crap like SOFI or BBIG. No offense.

bout a bit of Coke, Chevron and Amex.

Apparently all are pretty inflation proof.

but given today, I am better off losing money based on inflation instead of inflation AND the markets losing value.

[scarlet knight]

Today may have been the (a?) capitulation. Things may not be as bad as they seem.

[SDGT3]

Originally Posted by superdog

rough day today.

my concern about the Fed is that they act super slow. and appear to have zero idea.

the markets might very well be correcting now, inflation might very well be slowing....but they would still raise rates because they are dumb and not paying attention.

Since 2008 the Fed has been either too slow to act or too accommodative. They were still adding to their balance sheet not too long ago whilst inflation was surging and certainly after they admitted that it may not be "transitory". They are either full throttle or full stop without any consideration of blending throttle and brakes on the way up or down.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Today may have been the (a?) capitulation. Things may not be as bad as they seem.

Good point. It’s not like gas is five dollars a gallon or anything.

And that’s in Florida. I don’t even want to know what it is in California, Illinois or Massachusetts.

[avidflyer]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Today may have been the (a?) capitulation. Things may not be as bad as they seem.

May not get it, but we need at least another 5 percent down. I think 10 percent to get to where we need to be.