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Old 29 March 2020, 07:15 PM   #4291
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The numbers, mortality rates, recovery rates and all other parameters can be debated endlessly. However, right now in major state-of-the-art Emergency Departments, ICUs and academic hospitals, patients are overflowing on cots in the halls. Refrigerated trucks are being procured for body storage. And doctors and nurses are getting sick and dying of the disease they are so courageously battling. Name another time in modern medicine in the world when this has happened? Mortality rates be damned, this is an absolute disaster of proportions not seen in decades.

Could not be more correct.

Yes flu takes a toll each year, but nothing like this level of ferociousness.

Medical staff, especially those coming back from retirement to tackle this are utterly courageous and should be given civilian medals in my view.

I saw 51 doctors in Italy have now passed from corona. My fear is the US will have a wave of cases hit soon too as the numbers seem to be going up and up.

Spoke to my dad yesterday and he thinks they will go to a family ranch in Texas to keep apart from others and ride this out. Sounds like many have fled to Florida from New York areas, likely bringing it with them. Same thing happened in Italy when people fled the north to the south spreading it further and faster.
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Old 29 March 2020, 07:29 PM   #4292
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A fairly high risk approach being taken in Sweden, but it will be interesting to see how it pans out, and Iím sure many other countries will watch with interest.

https://apple.news/ADbN1hucTQd-LGEE80iizFQ
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Old 29 March 2020, 07:50 PM   #4293
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A fairly high risk approach being taken in Sweden, but it will be interesting to see how it pans out, and Iím sure many other countries will watch with interest.




But hasn't UK attempted at the same approach but quickly changed their mind? This Swedish approach sounds very risky.
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Old 29 March 2020, 09:22 PM   #4294
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But hasn't UK attempted at the same approach but quickly changed their mind? This Swedish approach sounds very risky.
Yes, they quickly changed their mind. Agree, Swedish approach high risk.
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Old 29 March 2020, 09:35 PM   #4295
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Crazy whatís going on out there, never did I think we would get to this in our modern time... scary to even think how long this could go on for? And the fact a whole dam world canít come up with something is scary as well. Stay safe everyone
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Old 29 March 2020, 09:43 PM   #4296
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Maybe take a look here and see if the death rate is being correctly tallied....

http://shanghaiist.com/2020/03/27/ur...-chinas-tally/

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I don’t think China is being honest at all... but something to consider:

How many people in that province died from non covid19 issues in the normal course. Just because a few extra thousand urns were delivered could still be for other deaths. People just don’t stop dying from other sh_t because there is a pandemic.
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Old 29 March 2020, 09:50 PM   #4297
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Crazy whatís going on out there, never did I think we would get to this in our modern time... scary to even think how long this could go on for? And the fact a whole dam world canít come up with something is scary as well. Stay safe everyone
Check out soderbergs movie Contagion, or Gatesí TED talk from 2015 or the timely Netflix docuseries ďPandemicĒ... it was only a matter of time.

The fact this virus can be hosted by carriers for weeks or longer without them knowing or having symptoms is a game changer.
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Old 29 March 2020, 09:52 PM   #4298
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I donít think China is being honest at all... but something to consider:

Hoe many people in that province died from non covid19 issues in normal course. Just because a few extra thousand urns were delivered could still be for other deaths. People just donít stop dying from other shit because there is a pandemic.
True. I am sure they cleared out a few dissidents under the guise of "Covid" casualties.
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Old 29 March 2020, 10:31 PM   #4299
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I donít think China is being honest at all... but something to consider:

How many people in that province died from non covid19 issues in the normal course. Just because a few extra thousand urns were delivered could still be for other deaths. People just donít stop dying from other sh_t because there is a pandemic.

They most definitely arenít being truthful. And now theyíre trying to change the narrative on where the virus originated.


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Old 29 March 2020, 10:40 PM   #4300
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A fairly high risk approach being taken in Sweden, but it will be interesting to see how it pans out, and Iím sure many other countries will watch with interest.

https://apple.news/ADbN1hucTQd-LGEE80iizFQ
Scary Rob.
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Old 29 March 2020, 10:51 PM   #4301
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Waiting for Joey....
The article can only be described as a nightmare, only one can wake up from a nightmare. As I’ve said before, I retired from medical practice in 2012 after sustaining a brain injury when a patient assaulted me, but on Friday, I was approached by officials from the local hospital about joining the fight should additional staff be needed in a few weeks. The idea of entering this situation is indeed frightening. The descriptions of his ER in the article make me literally feel anxious and sick.

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Did I read this correct that over 80% of patients that require/go on a ventilator, die?
That is correct. Awhile ago, I posted even worse statistics from personal communications with ER docs. Survival rates in the single digits.

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Originally Posted by RW16610 View Post
I'm also very interested to read Joey's thoughts on this or other things he's heard recently.
Of course I’m distressed about the medical disaster playing out in slow motion, but now we are seeing healthcare workers revolting because of the lack of PPE and other necessary equipment. And most distressing of all, and I see it happening here on TRF, factions are developing, the seeming goal of which is to one day say, “I told you so.”
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Old 29 March 2020, 10:57 PM   #4302
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I donít think China is being honest at all... but something to consider:

How many people in that province died from non covid19 issues in the normal course. Just because a few extra thousand urns were delivered could still be for other deaths. People just donít stop dying from other sh_t because there is a pandemic.
I don't think they are either, we will never really know.
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Old 29 March 2020, 10:59 PM   #4303
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Originally Posted by joeychitwood View Post
The article can only be described as a nightmare, only one can wake up from a nightmare. As Iíve said before, I retired from medical practice in 2012 after sustaining a brain injury when a patient assaulted me, but on Friday, I was approached by officials from the local hospital about joining the fight should additional staff be needed in a few weeks. The idea of entering this situation is indeed frightening. The descriptions of his ER in the article make me literally feel anxious and sick.


I hope your area can keep the spread under control and well within the standard staffing model of your local hospital.

Yes that NOLA ER docís narrative was chilling.


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Old 29 March 2020, 11:05 PM   #4304
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Originally Posted by joeychitwood View Post
The article can only be described as a nightmare, only one can wake up from a nightmare. As I’ve said before, I retired from medical practice in 2012 after sustaining a brain injury when a patient assaulted me, but on Friday, I was approached by officials from the local hospital about joining the fight should additional staff be needed in a few weeks. The idea of entering this situation is indeed frightening. The descriptions of his ER in the article make me literally feel anxious and sick.

That is correct. Awhile ago, I posted even worse statistics from personal communications with ER docs. Survival rates in the single digits.

Of course I’m distressed about the medical disaster playing out in slow motion, but now we are seeing healthcare workers revolting because of the lack of PPE and other necessary equipment. And most distressing of all, and I see it happening here on TRF, factions are developing, the seeming goal of which is to one day say, “I told you so.”
When I get from your post Joey is that you come to the conclusion that the Quarantine did not work and we’re still going to see hundreds of thousands if not millions of dead Americans as well as a wiped out medical system in the very near future. I took a chance and checked out several different news agencies last night just to kind of catch up and none of them sound as pessimistic as you do.
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Old 29 March 2020, 11:05 PM   #4305
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Originally Posted by joeychitwood View Post
The article can only be described as a nightmare, only one can wake up from a nightmare. As Iíve said before, I retired from medical practice in 2012 after sustaining a brain injury when a patient assaulted me, but on Friday, I was approached by officials from the local hospital about joining the fight should additional staff be needed in a few weeks. The idea of entering this situation is indeed frightening. The descriptions of his ER in the article make me literally feel anxious and sick.

That is correct. Awhile ago, I posted even worse statistics from personal communications with ER docs. Survival rates in the single digits.

Of course Iím distressed about the medical disaster playing out in slow motion, but now we are seeing healthcare workers revolting because of the lack of PPE and other necessary equipment. And most distressing of all, and I see it happening here on TRF, factions are developing, the seeming goal of which is to one day say, ďI told you so.Ē

Quote:
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I hope your area can keep the spread under control and well within the standard staffing model of your local hospital.

Yes that NOLA ER docís narrative was chilling.


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Amen to that.
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Old 29 March 2020, 11:06 PM   #4306
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I can appreciate your zealousness but hereís
todayís stats . Pretty much in line with what
has already been assessed from even a month
ago . Still in the 1 to 2 % percentile death rate .
While no deaths are acceptable itís similar to
a seasonal influenza, per reports .

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
No matter how I look up the flu mortality rate or for that matter do the math myself, I come up with .01 percent. Making Corona 10 to 22 times as deadly. Hardly similar. We best wash our hands.
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Old 29 March 2020, 11:07 PM   #4307
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When I get from your post Joey is that you come to the conclusion that the Quarantine did not work and weíre still going to see hundreds of thousands if not millions of dead Americans as well as a wiped out medical system in the very near future. I took a chance and checked out several different news agencies last night just to kind of catch up and none of them sound as pessimistic as you do.
What really interesting is how much the death rates from country to country.

I think we can all agree that stopping the spread is a good thing
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Old 29 March 2020, 11:11 PM   #4308
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When I get from your post Joey is that you come to the conclusion that the Quarantine did not work and weíre still going to see hundreds of thousands if not millions of dead Americans as well as a wiped out medical system in the very near future. I took a chance and checked out several different news agencies last night just to kind of catch up and none of them sound as pessimistic as you do.
Well, you misread my post if that is your conclusion. You are free to believe anything you wish about the pandemic.
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Old 29 March 2020, 11:16 PM   #4309
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Well, you misread my post if that is your conclusion. You are free to believe anything you wish about the pandemic.
Well I apologize then Joey. Your posts seemed very pessimistic to me. It’s actually got me pretty bummed out this morning.

And to be quite honest what I believe about this pandemic is not welcome on this thread.

Peace to you brother. Be safe.
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Old 29 March 2020, 11:27 PM   #4310
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Well I apologize then Joey. Your posts seemed quite pessimistic to me. Itís actually got me quite bummed out this morning.

And to be quite honest what I believe about this pandemic is not welcome on this thread.

Peace to you brother. Be safe.
New so appologies if covered. Dr Fauci predicted 100,000-200,000 deaths in the US (huge range and uncertain). Patton250 is that in line with your thoughts? Is that a pessimistic or optimistic view?
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Old 29 March 2020, 11:30 PM   #4311
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Originally Posted by joeychitwood View Post
The article can only be described as a nightmare, only one can wake up from a nightmare. As I’ve said before, I retired from medical practice in 2012 after sustaining a brain injury when a patient assaulted me, but on Friday, I was approached by officials from the local hospital about joining the fight should additional staff be needed in a few weeks. The idea of entering this situation is indeed frightening. The descriptions of his ER in the article make me literally feel anxious and sick.

That is correct. Awhile ago, I posted even worse statistics from personal communications with ER docs. Survival rates in the single digits.

Of course I’m distressed about the medical disaster playing out in slow motion, but now we are seeing healthcare workers revolting because of the lack of PPE and other necessary equipment. And most distressing of all, and I see it happening here on TRF, factions are developing, the seeming goal of which is to one day say, “I told you so.”
Doc, medical personnel of the IRR component of the military Inactive Ready Reserve are being called back.

For those that don't know, when you complete your enlistment or commission requirements there is an inactive remainder of time usually 4 years that you can be called back to active duty.

Perspective. This has never happened in the history of the US military. Not even after 9/11.

Nobody would fault you if you don't go back. I know your history as an ER doc and a LEO. You're a hero either way.
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Old 29 March 2020, 11:33 PM   #4312
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That’s not true no one has been called back, 15,000 have volunteered to come back in the us.
An educative order that can be used to call them back has been signed but nothing has happened.

If you all truly believe the sky is falling and this is the worst thing we have ever seen, what the hell are you doing posting on a luxury watch forum?

steve
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Old 29 March 2020, 11:35 PM   #4313
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I know this pandemic has had terrible outcomes for hundreds of thousands of people globally. This can create stress among those whoíve yet to be touched by the disease itself, but are being harmed other ways: economically, socially, school closures, employment, etc.

But please donít let that stress cause you to slip into demonizing political units or their people or other memberís fairly stated opinions.

That isnít going to end well for you or the thread. Iím only saying it for the sake of keeping the thread open.

Now, this isnít the only thread if you find yourself unable to resist. I found 13 other coronavirus threads in the Open Discussion section if you want to run the table with the Mods...

They cover varied related topics like:
Worried
Cruises
Breakthroughs
Self Quarantining
Safe Shopping
TP Shortages
Hitting Home
Asian Markets
Christmas Lights (Iím guilty)
Empty Planes
Spring Breakers
Immune System
Business Owners

Please donít take my post as pointing a finger at anyone in particular. In the time I was composing it, 6 posts were made that I havenít even seen.

Seems like Sundayís see a ramp-up. Maybe the morning after a night with Johnny Walker Wisdom makes our imaginations run wild.



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Old 29 March 2020, 11:39 PM   #4314
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That’s not true no one has been called back, 15,000 have volunteered to come back in the us.
An educative order that can be used to call them back has been signed but nothing has happened.

If you all truly believe the sky is falling and this is the worst thing we have ever seen, what the hell are you doing posting on a luxury watch forum?

steve
They initially asked for volunteers from medical MOSs.

The President now has authorized for them to be called back. The papers have been signed. When you ETS you go into the reserves.

It just hasn't been implemented.

I would post a link but it is a bit political.

Oh and we are posting on here because we are friends, have a common interest of love of watches and many of us, myself included ( as of midnight last night ) have either been asked or ordered to stay home by our governor.

Yes they have prefecture governors in Japan.
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Old 29 March 2020, 11:43 PM   #4315
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I can appreciate your zealousness but here’s
today’s stats . Pretty much in line with what
has already been assessed from even a month
ago . Still in the 1 to 2 % percentile death rate .
While no deaths are acceptable it’s similar to
a seasonal influenza, per reports .

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
In a bad flu season, where the vaccine missed the mark, in the US you get 40,000 deaths. That’s over six months, with a normal (bell curve) distribution. I reckon that means about 400 dead per day from flu, at peak death (middle of the curve).

Right now, we are around 400 dead per day, and we are nowhere near the peak of the curve. We are at the “tail” end of it. Even with all the measures take , the US could see 1,600 per day at peak. That’s the best case, optimistic scenario. That’s the “win”, where we limit the infections significantly.
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Old 29 March 2020, 11:46 PM   #4316
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In a bad flu season, where the vaccine missed the mark, in the US you get 40,000 deaths. Thatís over six months, with a normal (bell curve) distribution. I reckon that means about 400 dead per day from flu, at peak death (middle of the curve).

Right now, we are around 400 dead per day, and we are nowhere near the peak of the curve. We are at the ďtailĒ end of it. Even with all the measures take , the US could see 1,600 per day at peak. Thatís the best case, optimistic scenario. Thatís the ďwinĒ, where we limit the infections significantly.
There is just over 2,000 dead in the US.

How is that 400 per day?
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Old 29 March 2020, 11:51 PM   #4317
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There is just over 2,000 dead in the US.

How is that 400 per day?
525 deaths yesterday with upward slope and accelerated growth rate.
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Old 29 March 2020, 11:53 PM   #4318
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There is just over 2,000 dead in the US.

How is that 400 per day?
Itís closer to 4% worldwide and closer to 1.8% mortality rate in the US.

Whatís scary is the rate in other countries such as Italy. If the medical system becomes overwhelmed ... then itís a much bigger problem IMO.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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Old 29 March 2020, 11:56 PM   #4319
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Itís closer to 4% worldwide and closer to 1.8% mortality rate in the US.

Whatís scary is the rate in other countries such as Italy. If the medical system becomes overwhelmed ... then itís a much bigger problem IMO.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The mortality rate isn't as high because we still have over 120k people who hasn't recovered. They will not all make it unfortunately
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Old 29 March 2020, 11:57 PM   #4320
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525 deaths yesterday with upward slope and accelerated growth rate.
Watching MSNBC right now. 2,042 total right now in the US.

I donít recall what it was when I went to sleep, but Iím pretty certain it wasnít that far away. High 1900ís if I recall.
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