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Old 14 May 2023, 09:15 PM   #4111
Rolexatlast
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Unfortunately, there seems to have been a very noticeably decline in the main MODA group in terms of both credible, quality pieces and actual trade prices. Between V Moda continually pumping up the RWB group and the eternal tug-fest that happens in the comments, there's little reason to shop there now.

However, I will note that the MODA under 10 grand group seems to have avoided much of the idiocy/hive mind/wankery of the main group. There's still genuine deals to be had there if you're dilligent.
Maybe just a normal outcome of a collapsing market. The tide is going out, and all those without bathing suits are panicking
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Old 15 May 2023, 09:59 AM   #4112
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Last 2-3 days, 2 used blue dial VCO 4500v complete sold around the 25k range. That's essentially retail + tax. Can't wait to see mid/late summer where some of these prices will be.
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Old 15 May 2023, 10:29 AM   #4113
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Agree but I think itís all relative. If you really want say a Royal oak very unlikely you are going to get one as your first piece. So MSRP is really an illusion in that case. I donít mind paying a bit over if it means I can have the watch tomorrow. Certainly cheaper than buying a bunch of crap you donít want to get the piece you do.


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Just a simple guy wanting one Rolex watch, but as the AD around here are playing games and won't sell one because I'm not VIP, I could either move on to other brands or wait, which I do not mind.

I've read that grey dealers and sellers on this forum used to offer a decent discount but nowadays those days are long gone? So lets just stop buying watches above MSRP from anyone and hopefully the good old days will return right.
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Old 15 May 2023, 10:36 AM   #4114
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Just a simple guy wanting one Rolex watch, but as the AD around here are playing games and won't sell one because I'm not VIP, I could either move on to other brands or wait, which I do not mind.

I've read that grey dealers and sellers on this forum used to offer a decent discount but nowadays those days are long gone? So lets just stop buying watches above MSRP from anyone and hopefully the good old days will return right.

I would love that but I think this is the new norm (especially for Rolex). My advice for someone wanting one Rolex is to just go grey and move on. Not sure what piece you want but if itís a Daytona or Gmt itís unlikely your getting one as your first.


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Old 15 May 2023, 11:31 AM   #4115
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Just a simple guy wanting one Rolex watch, but as the AD around here are playing games and won't sell one because I'm not VIP, I could either move on to other brands or wait, which I do not mind.

I've read that grey dealers and sellers on this forum used to offer a decent discount but nowadays those days are long gone? So lets just stop buying watches above MSRP from anyone and hopefully the good old days will return right.
time is also money and the problem with this market is the uncertainty in how long you have to wait. no one knows if they'll be waiting 1 year or 5 or 10
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Old 15 May 2023, 12:13 PM   #4116
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Black dial 15500 mint fullset went for 37.8k at Grailzee. Most royal oaks have more or less stabilized. I havent seen much price change over the last 60 days. 15500s low 40s/high 30s. 15400s low to mid 30s
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Old 15 May 2023, 06:12 PM   #4117
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https://youtu.be/DLYVYC36S70

Not sure if this was discussed, but the folks at CRM appear to be losing their minds. Grey dealers like Roman Sharf, Trax, CRM all appear to hurting during this downturn and are thus eating each other apart. Love to see it
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Old 15 May 2023, 06:26 PM   #4118
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Originally Posted by In-N-Out View Post
https://youtu.be/DLYVYC36S70

Not sure if this was discussed, but the folks at CRM appear to be losing their minds. Grey dealers like Roman Sharf, Trax, CRM all appear to hurting during this downturn and are thus eating each other apart. Love to see it
Itís only karma if they start killing each other. Thereís no honour among thieves after all! I hope itís a bloodbath and they start spilling each otherís dirty little secret. Like whoís selling Frankenstein and fakes as real etc. Iím sure some of these A-holes are selling fakes as real to unsuspecting customers.

Lying through their teeth for the last 2 years about how watches are great investment and will go to the moon, which everybody with 2 brain cells knows itís a LIE! Now quiet as a church mouse when the market is bad.

Why are all these con artists / new gen Madoff not buying stocks when the market is at an all time low since they are so confident that itís gonna be rebound? POS LIARS!
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Old 15 May 2023, 08:02 PM   #4119
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Originally Posted by In-N-Out View Post
https://youtu.be/DLYVYC36S70

Not sure if this was discussed, but the folks at CRM appear to be losing their minds. Grey dealers like Roman Sharf, Trax, CRM all appear to hurting during this downturn and are thus eating each other apart. Love to see it
Roman Scharfís latest market update was saying the market is fine, said that his salespeople are averaging close to $1m in sales each month. What he failed to even mention is that he just laid off three of his salespeople (out of nine) only a few weeks ago. Thatís a 33% reduction to his sales staff.
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Old 15 May 2023, 08:08 PM   #4120
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Roman Scharfís latest market update was saying the market is fine, said that his salespeople are averaging close to $1m in sales each month. What he failed to even mention is that he just laid off three of his salespeople (out of nine) only a few weeks ago. Thatís a 33% reduction to his sales staff.
Iím guessing while they can probably keep their revenue somewhat steady the profits are probably dropping at an alarming rate. Deserved, considering they were thinking the watch market will grow infinitely - simply unrealistic and short-sighted businesspeople in my opinion.
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Old 15 May 2023, 08:51 PM   #4121
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Roman Scharf’s latest market update was saying the market is fine, said that his salespeople are averaging close to $1m in sales each month. What he failed to even mention is that he just laid off three of his salespeople (out of nine) only a few weeks ago. That’s a 33% reduction to his sales staff.
Good to know. Anyone who’s sitting on inventory, with fixed overhead, is hurting big time.

It’s no surprise that they’re laying off in this environment (parent co of Chrono24 also had a round of layoffs).

Hope we see some normalcy in the market, who knows. The cat is out the bag as far as the hobby is concerned, and ADs/boutiques will keep that air of scarcity at all costs, as they learned that exclusivity = luxury.
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Old 15 May 2023, 09:40 PM   #4122
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time is also money and the problem with this market is the uncertainty in how long you have to wait. no one knows if they'll be waiting 1 year or 5 or 10

This is true, I have expressed to my AD manager itís not the wait time necessarily - itís the never knowing if youíre being taken seriously or an approximate date youíll receive a watch.
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Old 15 May 2023, 09:51 PM   #4123
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Originally Posted by In-N-Out View Post
https://youtu.be/DLYVYC36S70

Not sure if this was discussed, but the folks at CRM appear to be losing their minds. Grey dealers like Roman Sharf, Trax, CRM all appear to hurting during this downturn and are thus eating each other apart. Love to see it
These guys are the worst. Act all friendly but they choose what to show and claim they take 5% on consignment which is a complete lie. If you believe them then give them your stuff on consignment and get a friend to act as a buyer. You'll see....
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Old 16 May 2023, 02:56 AM   #4124
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Pre owned jm daytona at 78k. 2020


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Old 16 May 2023, 03:01 AM   #4125
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For anyone who thinks AD backdooring isn’t a thing. Watcheric confirms it ~25 min in: https://youtu.be/RN0Lun1fYDI

Watches on the market fully stickered despite corporate mandates to remove them, etc. it’s all very clear
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Old 16 May 2023, 05:14 AM   #4126
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For anyone who thinks AD backdooring isnít a thing. Watcheric confirms it ~25 min in: https://youtu.be/RN0Lun1fYDI

Watches on the market fully stickered despite corporate mandates to remove them, etc. itís all very clear
100 percent!

It absolutely infuriated the hell out of me when there were people on here who aggressively defended ADs and SAs and claimed none of that went on. WAKE UP lol!

I mean, a brand new watch gets released and the same day it's on MODA. How the hell do they think that happens?
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Old 16 May 2023, 06:29 AM   #4127
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100 percent!

It absolutely infuriated the hell out of me when there were people on here who aggressively defended ADs and SAs and claimed none of that went on. WAKE UP lol!

I mean, a brand new watch gets released and the same day it's on MODA. How the hell do they think that happens?
I bet the guy that paid $35k for the two tone GMT is punching the air right now, the listings just keep getting cheaper. There's one now listed for $27k
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Old 16 May 2023, 09:02 AM   #4128
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Brand new 15510st black is barely garnering interest on moda today. 36k right now, assuming it’s legit interest instead of fakers pumping up the price. That’s only 6k above retail + price
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Old 16 May 2023, 09:14 AM   #4129
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Brand new 15510st black is barely garnering interest on moda today. 36k right now, assuming itís legit interest instead of fakers pumping up the price. Thatís only 6k above retail + price
Yeah saw that too and interested to see what the final bid is. 15510s are in the high 30s/low 40s now. Saw a grey dial sell for 41k
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Old 16 May 2023, 09:16 AM   #4130
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If any one buying a watch from greys to wear should be okay.when they try to re sell they are going to loose their shirt.
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Old 16 May 2023, 11:31 AM   #4131
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Yeah saw that too and interested to see what the final bid is. 15510s are in the high 30s/low 40s now. Saw a grey dial sell for 41k
Final bid of 39.1 sounds right.
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Old 16 May 2023, 12:44 PM   #4132
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Prices slump by up to 50% for discontinued Rolex watches (Watchpro)

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100 percent!

It absolutely infuriated the hell out of me when there were people on here who aggressively defended ADs and SAs and claimed none of that went on. WAKE UP lol!

I mean, a brand new watch gets released and the same day it's on MODA. How the hell do they think that happens?

The manufacturers clearly donít care this is happening. They could easily have a ďmystery shopperĒ purchase these from a grey, and use the serial number to locate the AD. Do this a few times and pull the status from the ADs and the message would get out. Even if thatís too drastic, it would send a message to the ADs that they need to clean up their client vetting.

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Old 16 May 2023, 01:05 PM   #4133
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For anyone who thinks AD backdooring isnít a thing. Watcheric confirms it ~25 min in: https://youtu.be/RN0Lun1fYDI

Watches on the market fully stickered despite corporate mandates to remove them, etc. itís all very clear
Not quite, I think you're missing the rest of the conversation.

Eric was talking about the time before the hype, when most Rolex models sat and ADs were forced to dump Rolex inventory to grey market dealers at huge discounts. Eric's full quote (25:47 - 26:13):

Quote:
I mean, it kind of has always been you know, when you could go walk into a Rolex store and buy [a Rolex], people still kind of didn't. Which is why at the end of the month when all these...remember they're all franchises in a way, they had to sell all these watches they had, they would back door them to people like me and I can sell you a Day-Date with a 20% discount.
Link

That was when you can buy a stainless steel sports model or even a two-tone GMT-Master II at Costco with a discount.

Then during the pandemic, grey market dealers started to negotiate bundled purchasing where they'll buy all the Lady-Datejusts in stock if they can also buy a few of SS Submariners and/or Daytonas. Then Rolex HQ started cracking down on the ADs that got caught.

Nowadays, ADs are much more careful to backdoor anything. They might backdoor a few choice pieces very carefully per quarter but it's much safer for them to simply sell the hot models to VIPs or select people willing to play the AD game.

ADs still gain the benefits but in an indirect manner.
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Old 16 May 2023, 01:19 PM   #4134
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People were doing bundles like that long before the pandemic.


This is a dangerous time I keep seeing watches I like and prices I can stomach haha
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Old 16 May 2023, 09:40 PM   #4135
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Not quite, I think you're missing the rest of the conversation.

Eric was talking about the time before the hype, when most Rolex models sat and ADs were forced to dump Rolex inventory to grey market dealers at huge discounts. Eric's full quote (25:47 - 26:13):



Link

That was when you can buy a stainless steel sports model or even a two-tone GMT-Master II at Costco with a discount.

Then during the pandemic, grey market dealers started to negotiate bundled purchasing where they'll buy all the Lady-Datejusts in stock if they can also buy a few of SS Submariners and/or Daytonas. Then Rolex HQ started cracking down on the ADs that got caught.

Nowadays, ADs are much more careful to backdoor anything. They might backdoor a few choice pieces very carefully per quarter but it's much safer for them to simply sell the hot models to VIPs or select people willing to play the AD game.

ADs still gain the benefits but in an indirect manner.
Thanks. Yes I’m aware backdooring was a practice predating the pandemic. The fact of the matter is that ADs are still offloading desireable pieces to greys, while the stakes are higher. I know greys who have even said that. For example, take a look at all the Chrono24 listings for fully stickered 2022/2023 royal oaks. All of these came from boutique points of sale, yet they are required to take the stickers off. So why are they still on?
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Old 16 May 2023, 09:51 PM   #4136
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People were doing bundles like that long before the pandemic.


This is a dangerous time I keep seeing watches I like and prices I can stomach haha
Yes the non hype pieces are often back at 2019 pricing.
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Old 17 May 2023, 02:48 AM   #4137
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Prices will keep falling through summer. I already have the data to support it from a major player in the space.

If you are buying watches right now I hope you like what you buy.
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Old 17 May 2023, 08:41 AM   #4138
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new release tt gmt are now 26k. Dropping fast
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Old 17 May 2023, 09:21 AM   #4139
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Prices will keep falling through summer. I already have the data to support it from a major player in the space.

If you are buying watches right now I hope you like what you buy.

Care to share said "data"? Also what's your crystal ball saying the stock market is gonna do?
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Old 17 May 2023, 09:41 AM   #4140
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Prices will keep falling through summer. I already have the data to support it from a major player in the space.

If you are buying watches right now I hope you like what you buy.
Interested to see some hard data.

Also curious if you are hinting that the data indicates prices will go back to pre-hype days (e.g., discounts on Royal Oaks). Personally, I don't see it getting to that point again for many of the reasons others have stated in this thread (one of them being that brands like AP control everything now and would never let on things are that bad and would restrict inventory to counteract it). ROs in particular have been pretty stagnant and many of the basic three handers are only 5-7k over MSRP + Tax.

I think right now is a decent time to buy a piece and, depending not the piece of course, should hold most of its value (not saying you're not going to lose anything).
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