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Old 17 May 2023, 10:25 AM   #4141
m3jasper
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Roman Scharfís latest market update was saying the market is fine, said that his salespeople are averaging close to $1m in sales each month. What he failed to even mention is that he just laid off three of his salespeople (out of nine) only a few weeks ago. Thatís a 33% reduction to his sales staff.
Who did he lay off?
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Old 17 May 2023, 10:31 AM   #4142
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Care to share said "data"? Also what's your crystal ball saying the stock market is gonna do?

Yes, the data is always what seems to be lacking. We hit rock bottom months ago, and prices are steadily on the rise.


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Old 17 May 2023, 11:14 AM   #4143
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For example, take a look at all the Chrono24 listings for fully stickered 2022/2023 royal oaks. All of these came from boutique points of sale, yet they are required to take the stickers off. So why are they still on?
The link you shared was specifically about Rolex, not Audemars Piguet. So I was talking strictly about Rolex.

I'm not as familiar with the shady AP boutique practices behind the scenes. All I know is that Rolex appears much stricter with their boutiques/ADs than AP, which is most likely why we see a lot more fully-stickered Royal Oaks than Rolexes.

Rolex started a huge crackdown around 2021 and you'll see there are much less ADs today than in 2020. A lot of ORJs got their contracts terminated.

So I don't think we can have Rolex and AP in the same discussion. Anything regarding backdoor deals or grey market dealings should be discussed separately between the two to avoid any confusions.
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Old 17 May 2023, 11:14 AM   #4144
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Who did he lay off?
Chris, Nick, and Sabina.
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Old 17 May 2023, 11:16 AM   #4145
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The link you shared was specifically about Rolex, not Audemars Piguet. So I was talking strictly about Rolex.

I'm not as familiar with the shady AP boutique practices behind the scenes. All I know is that Rolex appears much stricter with their boutiques/ADs than AP, which is most likely why we see a lot more fully-stickered Royal Oaks than Rolexes.

Rolex started a huge crackdown around 2021 and you'll see there are much less ADs today than in 2020. A lot of ORJs got their contracts terminated.

So I don't think we can have Rolex and AP in the same discussion. Anything regarding backdoor deals or grey market dealings should be discussed separately between the two to avoid any confusions.
Have you not seen or heard greys having dozens of references in their shipping coffins? Not even opened? How about open cards? Or listings that have today’s date on the card?
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Old 17 May 2023, 11:21 AM   #4146
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Have you not seen or heard greys having dozens of references in their shipping coffins? Not even opened? How about open cards? Or listings that have todayís date on the card?
If we're talking about Rolex specifically:

In the past couple of years? Yes.

This year? No.
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Old 17 May 2023, 11:27 AM   #4147
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If we're talking about Rolex specifically:

In the past couple of years? Yes.

This year? No.
Thatís flat out false. You have your head in the sand if you think it hasnít happened this year. What does that even mean? How can you tell me it hasnít happened this year?

Iíve multiple seen pieces listed the same date as the card (this year). And coffiníd 2023 product.
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Old 17 May 2023, 11:30 AM   #4148
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Prices slump by up to 50% for discontinued Rolex watches (Watchpro)

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Thatís flat out false. You have your head in the sand if you think it hasnít happened this year. What does that even mean? How can you tell me it hasnít happened this year?

Iíve multiple seen pieces listed the same date as the card (this year). And coffiníd 2023 product.

Ive seen one on moda that has all the same date from same ad. What makes ne think its the same ad? The handwriting on the date are identical on three watch. Backdoor still rampant




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Old 17 May 2023, 11:34 AM   #4149
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Thatís flat out false. You have your head in the sand if you think it hasnít happened this year. What does that even mean? How can you tell me it hasnít happened this year?

Iíve multiple seen pieces listed the same date as the card (this year). And coffiníd 2023 product.
I never said it hasn't happened at all this year. All I'm saying is that backdoor deals with Rolex ADs are much less prevalent today than in the beginning of the hype.

It's just much more risky for Rolex ADs today due to increased scrutinization by HQ. You can see how many ADs lost their ORJ status in the past two years alone.
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Old 17 May 2023, 11:37 AM   #4150
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Ive seen one on moda that has all the same date from same ad. What makes ne think its the same ad? The handwriting on the date are identical on three watch. Backdoor still rampant




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I've seen that picture posted many times.

Isn't that from the recent Rolex giveaway by a company in Singapore?

https://www.facebook.com/10000018575...3050467780406/
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Old 17 May 2023, 11:41 AM   #4151
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Anyways, the new two-tone GMT Master II (126713) is now down to $25.5k:

https://i.imgur.com/4bX36Q3.png
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Old 17 May 2023, 11:59 AM   #4152
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Brand new, unworn, May 2023 GMT-Master II (126710BLNR) is now back down to $17k:

https://i.imgur.com/ZM6KlUN.png
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Old 17 May 2023, 12:02 PM   #4153
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Anyways, the new two-tone GMT Master II (126713) is now down to $25.5k:

https://i.imgur.com/4bX36Q3.png

Wow. Just saw one at 26 now its 500$ down just a few hrs


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Old 17 May 2023, 12:25 PM   #4154
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Wow. Just saw one at 26 now its 500$ down just a few hrs


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And it's still sitting at $25.5k.

It's funny to see the one at $30k+ sold quickly last week. Now that the price is down, nobody wants any part of it.

Buy high, sell low?
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Old 17 May 2023, 12:25 PM   #4155
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A two tone Rolex has traditionally traded close to retail +/- depending on model. So i expect it to fall further.
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Old 17 May 2023, 12:43 PM   #4156
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Yes, the data is always what seems to be lacking. We hit rock bottom months ago, and prices are steadily on the rise.


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You're mildly humorous posts are also getting a bit long in the tooth... But somehow people in this thread still jump on it...

Good luck with the next round of "we hit bottom and it's going up"
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Old 17 May 2023, 12:44 PM   #4157
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You're mildly humorous posts are also getting a bit long in the tooth... But somehow people in this thread still jump on it...

Good luck with the next round of "we hit bottom and it's going up"

Thanks! Glad youíre enjoying!


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Old 17 May 2023, 01:18 PM   #4158
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Originally Posted by bay_area_kid View Post
The link you shared was specifically about Rolex, not Audemars Piguet. So I was talking strictly about Rolex.

I'm not as familiar with the shady AP boutique practices behind the scenes. All I know is that Rolex appears much stricter with their boutiques/ADs than AP, which is most likely why we see a lot more fully-stickered Royal Oaks than Rolexes.

Rolex started a huge crackdown around 2021 and you'll see there are much less ADs today than in 2020. A lot of ORJs got their contracts terminated.

So I don't think we can have Rolex and AP in the same discussion. Anything regarding backdoor deals or grey market dealings should be discussed separately between the two to avoid any confusions.
Iíd say the opposite in that AP has way more control than Rolex does on who the watch goes to. Rolex has a huge network of ADs they canít police. AP controls everything from production to who they sell to because they are corp owned boutique only.
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Old 17 May 2023, 01:47 PM   #4159
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And it's still sitting at $25.5k.

It's funny to see the one at $30k+ sold quickly last week. Now that the price is down, nobody wants any part of it.

Buy high, sell low?
Constant stream of these new 2 tone gmts. Makes me wonder what percentage of them were bought to keep vs to flip.
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Old 17 May 2023, 01:48 PM   #4160
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I was pretty tempted at the 15510st 50th anniversary grey dial that ended up selling for $39.7k in the Moda Auction. RO’s seem to be holding somewhat steady the past couple weeks, but Im inclined to believe there’s still a bit of room for AP RO’s to fall like others in this thread.
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Old 17 May 2023, 01:55 PM   #4161
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Constant stream of these new 2 tone gmts. Makes me wonder what percentage of them were bought to keep vs to flip.
It's very possible the same few two-tone GMTs are being passed around from dealer to dealer like a game of hot potato while the price continues to drop!
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Old 17 May 2023, 02:00 PM   #4162
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Iíve heard from many of the ADs that I have a contact at. That the two tone Gmts have shown up and are being sold. Those and the new explore. Wonít be long before the Gmts will be just above retail at this rate.


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Old 17 May 2023, 08:36 PM   #4163
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Interested to see some hard data.

Also curious if you are hinting that the data indicates prices will go back to pre-hype days (e.g., discounts on Royal Oaks). Personally, I don't see it getting to that point again for many of the reasons others have stated in this thread (one of them being that brands like AP control everything now and would never let on things are that bad and would restrict inventory to counteract it). ROs in particular have been pretty stagnant and many of the basic three handers are only 5-7k over MSRP + Tax.

I think right now is a decent time to buy a piece and, depending not the piece of course, should hold most of its value (not saying you're not going to lose anything).
AP can control only so much - after all they need to sell some watches to pay the bills. I don't think they'd be able to much reduce RO supply for long given their RO centric product portfolio. And the RO design has lots of room to become less fashionable again after the recent hype. I'd put my money on lower secondary prices (in real terms) looking a few years out.

Short-term it may well be a good time to buy though - who wants to hold off a purchase for years on end...
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Old 18 May 2023, 01:29 AM   #4164
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The two-tone gmt will become a watch obtainable from AD in a short period of time. It’s beautiful edit”but” too much of a vintage look that it lacks the blitz by today’s standard. It will trade below retail in time to come. Rolex should have used the oyster on this timepiece instead. Just my opinion, no offence to anyone
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Old 18 May 2023, 03:26 AM   #4165
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AP can control only so much - after all they need to sell some watches to pay the bills. I don't think they'd be able to much reduce RO supply for long given their RO centric product portfolio. And the RO design has lots of room to become less fashionable again after the recent hype. I'd put my money on lower secondary prices (in real terms) looking a few years out.

Short-term it may well be a good time to buy though - who wants to hold off a purchase for years on end...
Will be interesting to see where we go from here. I would love to get back to the days where you could walk in and get a RO for 10-15 percent off but the pessimist in me doesn't think we will ever see those days again.
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Old 18 May 2023, 03:54 AM   #4166
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Will be interesting to see where we go from here. I would love to get back to the days where you could walk in and get a RO for 10-15 percent off but the pessimist in me doesn't think we will ever see those days again.
Yeah I don't see that happening either. I think there will continue be a premium on them in the secondary market; the amount of premium will just fluctuate. Over time I think more people will realize the quality difference they're getting for the pricepoint vs say a PM oysterflex Daytona, but I'm also biased towards AP so who knows.
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Old 18 May 2023, 04:48 AM   #4167
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Will be interesting to see where we go from here. I would love to get back to the days where you could walk in and get a RO for 10-15 percent off but the pessimist in me doesn't think we will ever see those days again.
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Yeah I don't see that happening either. I think there will continue be a premium on them in the secondary market; the amount of premium will just fluctuate. Over time I think more people will realize the quality difference they're getting for the pricepoint vs say a PM oysterflex Daytona, but I'm also biased towards AP so who knows.
Don’t see the good old days coming back unfortunately. Mainly because the cat is out of the bag (general public now has a heightened awareness regarding watches) and because a AD’s and boutiques have understood that exclusivity equates to luxury and immensely helps brand image. They are going to keep a vice grip on this model.
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Old 18 May 2023, 05:04 AM   #4168
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Will be interesting to see where we go from here. I would love to get back to the days where you could walk in and get a RO for 10-15 percent off but the pessimist in me doesn't think we will ever see those days again.

Im not following ap price but can you tell me 6-10yrs ago will i be able to buy open worked or 15300 straight from their ad? Was it like rolex as well that you can buy just about every model back then?


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Old 18 May 2023, 05:43 AM   #4169
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Im not following ap price but can you tell me 6-10yrs ago will i be able to buy open worked or 15300 straight from their ad? Was it like rolex as well that you can buy just about every model back then?


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I had the 15305st on my wrist at Miami boutique around 2015. AP was more available than Rolex back then. Most people wouldnít buy from the boutique back then because the watches were available for 10-25% off from the vast number of ADs. They flat out didnít have the brand awareness back then. FHB had a relentless campaign of putting APs in movies and on the wrists of ambassadors and simultaneously going boutique only. It worked.
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Old 18 May 2023, 09:39 AM   #4170
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Im not following ap price but can you tell me 6-10yrs ago will i be able to buy open worked or 15300 straight from their ad? Was it like rolex as well that you can buy just about every model back then?


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I am not sure about the openworked (I imagine that there were still some pieces like an openworked or the panda Daytona that were still allocation only). But from what I hear and what I saw when I went to AP around 2014-2015, the cases were full of ROs and AP was offering them at a discount because they weren't moving.
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