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Old 8 August 2023, 01:48 PM   #4501
massabee
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$28,700. for a white face, or black?

I saw the black face go as low as 24K or so end of last year.
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Old 9 August 2023, 12:48 PM   #4502
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$28,700. for a white face, or black?

I saw the black face go as low as 24K or so end of last year.
White face. Price dropped to $28,200, still sitting as of right now.

The firs black dial I came across (2020 model, full set) has been sitting and getting bumped since yesterday at $24,750.


Nobody is paying these silly prices anymore. Nor should they.
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Old 9 August 2023, 01:36 PM   #4503
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White face. Price dropped to $28,200, still sitting as of right now.

The firs black dial I came across (2020 model, full set) has been sitting and getting bumped since yesterday at $24,750.


Nobody is paying these silly prices anymore. Nor should they.

And they will keep dropping as the newer 126 series hits the market in Sept/Oct. The issue with hype watches is that no-one wants to be seen with the older generation. So a lot of 116 are being dumped and even more will be dumped until the end of the year.
As we stand now, majority of full gold Daytonas are below retail as well as all the 2 tone ones. I suspect, the Oysterflex will be next to trade below retail. The steel ones are still likely to maintain some premium but i think the white dial will probably end up ultimately trading in the low 20s while the black dial will be only a couple of grand above retail, probably high teens. There are hundreds of thousands of these Daytonas out there, and the IG collectors cannot be seen with the old one anymore. Its onto the new one.


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Old 9 August 2023, 03:57 PM   #4504
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We are probably only 8-14 months away from being able to pick up plain subs from Rolex with no waitlist. I think steel GMT and Daytona will continue to fetch a very slim premium or have a short waitlist, but we will def get there for sub/DJ etc.

Cermit too you think?


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Old 10 August 2023, 07:25 AM   #4505
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And they will keep dropping as the newer 126 series hits the market in Sept/Oct. The issue with hype watches is that no-one wants to be seen with the older generation. So a lot of 116 are being dumped and even more will be dumped until the end of the year.
As we stand now, majority of full gold Daytonas are below retail as well as all the 2 tone ones. I suspect, the Oysterflex will be next to trade below retail. The steel ones are still likely to maintain some premium but i think the white dial will probably end up ultimately trading in the low 20s while the black dial will be only a couple of grand above retail, probably high teens. There are hundreds of thousands of these Daytonas out there, and the IG collectors cannot be seen with the old one anymore. Its onto the new one.


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I hope you're right. I'd love to get a white dial Daytona but the cheapskate in me can't justify paying the current premium.
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Old 10 August 2023, 12:31 PM   #4506
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Cermit too you think?


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Cermit market update - 1 sold today 2022 model with watch, card and manuals $14,400.
July 2023 dated watch & card listed and sitting at $15,600.
March 2022 dated watch, full set and polish listed and sitting at $15,175.

These don't appear to be much rarer than the black sub date at this point. No reason to see why they won't continue to fall with the rest.
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Old 10 August 2023, 12:41 PM   #4507
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Prices are not going up. They are steadily going down. They will continue. In fact I have access to a lot of leading data that indicates the same.
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Old 10 August 2023, 04:11 PM   #4508
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The so called waitlists are starting to dry up and when they are depleted, prices will drop below MSRP at the grays. First to go are the last that went up, so TT watches and precious metal watches. The less desirable stainless comes later, but looking at second hand prices for the Explorer II, it will soon be available at your AD.

I do not expect any stainless GMT-master, Submariner or Daytona to drop soon or maybe not at all in all markets.
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Old 11 August 2023, 07:16 AM   #4509
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Prices are not going up. They are steadily going down. They will continue. In fact I have access to a lot of leading data that indicates the same.
Haha sure you do....this is what everyone's been saying for the last 3 years. Yet cermits are still sitting at 15k+ and Pepsi and batman are still insane. This is coming from someone who's been on the waitlist for a year for literally any combination sub or gmt. I pray to the rolex gods that prices come back down to reality but I'm not seeing it. They remain stable and I'm not seeing any indication they're going to go down any time soon.
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Old 11 August 2023, 08:29 AM   #4510
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Haha sure you do....this is what everyone's been saying for the last 3 years. Yet cermits are still sitting at 15k+ and Pepsi and batman are still insane. This is coming from someone who's been on the waitlist for a year for literally any combination sub or gmt. I pray to the rolex gods that prices come back down to reality but I'm not seeing it. They remain stable and I'm not seeing any indication they're going to go down any time soon.
Huh? Past three years? The bear market only began in April 2022.

I'd even say your statement is biased given your whining about an extended wait. I'm guessing your AD has you pegged for a flipper if you weren't insistent on a specific reference. Shouldn't come off as a surprise that you haven't even been offered a two tone sub or GMT yet, which is telling about where you stand at the AD.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to look on Moda to compare listings now vs beginning of the year and see the trend. Certain pieces such as the BLRO/BLNR will always have a wait, but the two tone GMTs (Root-Beer/GRNR) are quite obtainable and same with the Subs.

Back in April 2022, everyone laughed at the member from Japan who posted about his local secondary dealers dropping prices/ceasing purchases. The goal posts keep changing on here. At first everyone said nothing would hit the window for sale then it did with PM/two tone, and now it's no SS will, which is incorrect as we've been seeing JC DSSD, Explorer 1/2, etc. in the cases. At this rate, I strongly believe we'll be back at the point where most references are readily available except with a certain few (SS Daytona, SS GMT, etc.) that will require a wait.

The Fed chair has said we will hold these restrictive interest rates for at least one more year and hasn't ruled out further increases. Keep in mind, we've only been increasing interest rates shy of 1.5 yrs~. There are further price corrections to come imho. The parasites within the secondary market are starting to fade away as quickly as they come on. Look back many pages in this thread and you'll see.
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Old 11 August 2023, 12:03 PM   #4511
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Haha sure you do....this is what everyone's been saying for the last 3 years. Yet cermits are still sitting at 15k+ and Pepsi and batman are still insane. This is coming from someone who's been on the waitlist for a year for literally any combination sub or gmt. I pray to the rolex gods that prices come back down to reality but I'm not seeing it. They remain stable and I'm not seeing any indication they're going to go down any time soon.

“sitting” is the key word here.


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Old 11 August 2023, 01:24 PM   #4512
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“sitting” is the key word here.


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Spot on. While we're not seeing $1000 per week drops like we were this time last year, the downward trend continues. The secondary market is doing its best to stem bleeding at this point.

126710BLNR on oyster, brand new sitting at $15950
126710BLRO on oyster, 2021, full set price reduced from $17,750 to $17,500. Sitting for 5 days.

Down she goes.
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Old 11 August 2023, 03:24 PM   #4513
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Moda used to be a great place to source good pricing but it’s evolved in to a hodge podge of dealers bidding up each others auction. This is an auction of a worn 2019 116509 WG blue dial. The last two bidders (both of whom are also dealers) bid it up. Why would anyone in their right mind bid to 42 unless they were hoping some other ill informed bidder would swoop in last minute thus stabilizing a floor price comp. These seem more like shill bids to me. I also wouldn’t be surprised if the transaction never actually goes through. Given the year and condition, I’d say there is little to no money to be made in that watch at 42k.

Also, why buy this watch that may or may not sell for a few hundred dollars more. Hell at that pace they should just buy t-bills, they’d be coming out practically the same with little to no risk.

Every time I go on there I see more and more of this. Sadly, I sense a lot of these newly established dealers have little to no idea whether they’re actually making money.


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Old 11 August 2023, 09:37 PM   #4514
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Prices are not going up. They are steadily going down. They will continue. In fact I have access to a lot of leading data that indicates the same.

Don't be afraid to share
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Old 12 August 2023, 01:06 AM   #4515
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Huh? Past three years? The bear market only began in April 2022.

I'd even say your statement is biased given your whining about an extended wait. I'm guessing your AD has you pegged for a flipper if you weren't insistent on a specific reference. Shouldn't come off as a surprise that you haven't even been offered a two tone sub or GMT yet, which is telling about where you stand at the AD.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to look on Moda to compare listings now vs beginning of the year and see the trend. Certain pieces such as the BLRO/BLNR will always have a wait, but the two tone GMTs (Root-Beer/GRNR) are quite obtainable and same with the Subs.

Back in April 2022, everyone laughed at the member from Japan who posted about his local secondary dealers dropping prices/ceasing purchases. The goal posts keep changing on here. At first everyone said nothing would hit the window for sale then it did with PM/two tone, and now it's no SS will, which is incorrect as we've been seeing JC DSSD, Explorer 1/2, etc. in the cases. At this rate, I strongly believe we'll be back at the point where most references are readily available except with a certain few (SS Daytona, SS GMT, etc.) that will require a wait.

The Fed chair has said we will hold these restrictive interest rates for at least one more year and hasn't ruled out further increases. Keep in mind, we've only been increasing interest rates shy of 1.5 yrs~. There are further price corrections to come imho. The parasites within the secondary market are starting to fade away as quickly as they come on. Look back many pages in this thread and you'll see.
Well put
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Old 12 August 2023, 03:26 AM   #4516
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Moda used to be a great place to source good pricing but it’s evolved in to a hodge podge of dealers bidding up each others auction. This is an auction of a worn 2019 116509 WG blue dial. The last two bidders (both of whom are also dealers) bid it up. Why would anyone in their right mind bid to 42 unless they were hoping some other ill informed bidder would swoop in last minute thus stabilizing a floor price comp. These seem more like shill bids to me. I also wouldn’t be surprised if the transaction never actually goes through. Given the year and condition, I’d say there is little to no money to be made in that watch at 42k.

Also, why buy this watch that may or may not sell for a few hundred dollars more. Hell at that pace they should just buy t-bills, they’d be coming out practically the same with little to no risk.

Every time I go on there I see more and more of this. Sadly, I sense a lot of these newly established dealers have little to no idea whether they’re actually making money.


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Exactly. Nobody who us legitimately bidding would jump it that much.

Another fake auction.
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Old 15 August 2023, 12:56 AM   #4517
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This white gold Japan edition AP that is limited to /300

Just has unlimited supply between 3 or 4 different dealers.

Either that or it's just never getting sold and people are fake marking it as sold and bringing it back a month later in an effort to establish a price.

15202st just absolutely not moving either. Listed between 57k-66k with what seems like zero interest.

I see no reason it shouldn't move down into high 40s low 50s.
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Old 15 August 2023, 04:20 AM   #4518
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This white gold Japan edition AP that is limited to /300

Just has unlimited supply between 3 or 4 different dealers.

Either that or it's just never getting sold and people are fake marking it as sold and bringing it back a month later in an effort to establish a price.

15202st just absolutely not moving either. Listed between 57k-66k with what seems like zero interest.

I see no reason it shouldn't move down into high 40s low 50s.

I have seen the exact same action on that Japan AP the last month or two. That’s ridiculous and so obvious they’re listing back and forth with fake sales. Nobody has bought that watch, would almost be willing to bet money it’s the exact same serial.

it really is a beautiful watch though
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Old 15 August 2023, 09:29 AM   #4519
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$42K is not a bad price at all for a 116509 blue dial full set in the U.S. Moda closed deals are usually an indicator of wholesale pricing as of that moment.

The comparable offerings at that price will all ship from ASIA and assuming you don't get burned you will have to pay duty. At RF I am sure any comparable listing will be around 15% higher.

If you end up paying what they pay at Moda for whatever you decide to buy, you won't have much cause to complain.
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Old 15 August 2023, 11:43 AM   #4520
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$42K is not a bad price at all for a 116509 blue dial full set in the U.S. Moda closed deals are usually an indicator of wholesale pricing as of that moment.

The comparable offerings at that price will all ship from ASIA and assuming you don't get burned you will have to pay duty. At RF I am sure any comparable listing will be around 15% higher.

If you end up paying what they pay at Moda for whatever you decide to buy, you won't have much cause to complain.
I would not take the 'sold' price of that auction (or any others on moda for that matter) as a reliable estimate of market value. Many of the auctions (including almost certainly the above) are completely fraudulent.

Focus on the normal listings that are moving quickly and which ones are sitting. You will notice that there are many, many pieces sitting for days stinking up the lists. If they were priced correctly, they would sell within an hour of listing.
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Old 15 August 2023, 11:44 AM   #4521
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Prices are not going up. They are steadily going down. They will continue. In fact I have access to a lot of leading data that indicates the same.
Nice, hope the watch we all want can be purchased at msrp or below for a discount at the Rolex AD..

Never support the grey dealers.
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Old 16 August 2023, 12:28 AM   #4522
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I no longer believe in MODA auction prices. Come to think of it, if MODA has a paid group then the best deals should be within that group. The common MODA group has become a B2C channel with manipulation from vested stakeholders. If anyone noticed, some of the posts marked sold will come with a common comment : “still have 1 piece/incoming, PM for details” Its all an act in my opinion

Edit : These accompanying comments from the TS usually have the watch marked sold by the TS himself, without any buyers acknowledging.
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Old 17 August 2023, 02:46 AM   #4523
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Well you're in Singapore. Time was, a person could buy a Rolex at the AD in Asia or Europe and then re-sell it here in U.S. even without papers, for more. I think there even used to be a way to get the watch for below MSRP at the AD, in some countries.

I don't think it's like that anymore.
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Old 18 August 2023, 09:06 AM   #4524
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Well you're in Singapore. Time was, a person could buy a Rolex at the AD in Asia or Europe and then re-sell it here in U.S. even without papers, for more. I think there even used to be a way to get the watch for below MSRP at the AD, in some countries.

I don't think it's like that anymore.

Many ways to do this, especially in Europe where retail prices are lower especially with a stronger USD. So favorable FX rates and VAT refunds make goods considerably cheaper overseas. Not sure how people would get around custom fees though
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Old 18 August 2023, 07:56 PM   #4525
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https://loupethis.com/auctions/rolex...box-and-papers

$24,750, all in with buyers fee for this 116500 black dial with card, hangtag and box. Does one sale make the market? No. But I think it shows that the gray market dealers asking $27-32k for these are asking too much. Previous sale on Loupe This for a 116500 was $23,651 in December.
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Old 18 August 2023, 08:09 PM   #4526
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Very nice


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Old 18 August 2023, 08:56 PM   #4527
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https://loupethis.com/auctions/rolex...box-and-papers

$24,750, all in with buyers fee for this 116500 black dial with card, hangtag and box. Does one sale make the market? No. But I think it shows that the gray market dealers asking $27-32k for these are asking too much. Previous sale on Loupe This for a 116500 was $23,651 in December.
LoupeThis is an auction site and like most auction houses, they get a commission on the sale (also called Buyer's Premium).

From loupethis.com/how-it-works:

Quote:
Bidders pay a 10% commission on top of the ‘hammer’ price.
So for that Daytona, the winning bidder ends up paying a total of $24,750 + 10% commision = $27,225. That's is quite close to what most secondary market dealers will sell it for.
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Old 18 August 2023, 09:25 PM   #4528
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LoupeThis is an auction site and like most auction houses, they get a commission on the sale (also called Buyer's Premium).

From loupethis.com/how-it-works:



So for that Daytona, the winning bidder ends up paying a total of $24,750 + 10% commision = $27,225. That's is quite close to what most secondary market dealers will sell it for.
The sold price actually calculates in the buyers fee of 10%. Look at the bid history. Last bid is $22,500. 10% is $2250. Hence $24,750. It’s a bit confusing because the current bid price is without premium but sold price is with premium. Was confusing for me at first too.
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Old 18 August 2023, 11:28 PM   #4529
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The sold price actually calculates in the buyers fee of 10%. Look at the bid history. Last bid is $22,500. 10% is $2250. Hence $24,750. It’s a bit confusing because the current bid price is without premium but sold price is with premium. Was confusing for me at first too.

This is correct. All sold prices include the auction premium so that is the total price.
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Old 18 August 2023, 11:43 PM   #4530
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This is correct. All sold prices include the auction premium so that is the total price.
Yes I’ve bought from Loupe and this is correct the displayed price is inclusive of the fee. Overall I think it’s a good place to buy from their communication was professional, accurate photos and description, shipped quickly and I think the prices aren’t bad for a retail setting.
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