The Rolex Forums   The Rolex Watch

ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX


Go Back   Rolex Forums - Rolex Watch Forum > Classifieds > WatchOut!!!

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 23 August 2022, 10:17 AM   #931
eijiboy
Banned
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: everywhere
Posts: 849
Quote:
Originally Posted by HAL330 View Post
I'd be curious if it has box and papers... the one on Chrono selling for that much is no papers..

Yes box and papers


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
eijiboy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 23 August 2022, 11:27 AM   #932
BogdanS
"TRF" Member
 
BogdanS's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2019
Location: EUROPE
Posts: 842
Quote:
Originally Posted by shaunylw View Post
Yikes, someone overpaid.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Bought mine full set for 14k in oct 2020 and Id buy it again.

This is not a good time to build a collection but if theres one piece youve been dreaming of, Id take the opening now or follow closely on the prices, ready to act if the trend is reversing.
BogdanS is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 23 August 2022, 04:37 PM   #933
sudo_root
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Space
Watch: Too many...
Posts: 61
It’s incredible to see people thinking that watch prices will go back up, things are going to get very very very ugly. Alas, greater fool theory at its finest with “investment” watches I suppose.
sudo_root is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 23 August 2022, 09:51 PM   #934
Fedpete
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: usa
Posts: 742
Quote:
Originally Posted by sudo_root View Post
Its incredible to see people thinking that watch prices will go back up, things are going to get very very very ugly. Alas, greater fool theory at its finest with investment watches I suppose.

Like absolutely insane right? The DD40 Olive was a watch in the low to mid thirties all day on this forum a few years ago. I said this to the crowd in main forum a few months back and was basically piled on because nobody could accept the coming reality.

China is about to go down economically. This market isnt returning. Its actually headed back to the 2015 days of full ad cabinets. Screen shot this. Itll take some time but thats where its going. Greys will be selling under retail as they did for years upon years upon years.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Fedpete is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 23 August 2022, 11:14 PM   #935
QuelleHeureEstIl
Banned
 
Join Date: Feb 2021
Location: Gnve
Posts: 595
Quote:
Originally Posted by sudo_root View Post
It’s incredible to see people thinking that watch prices will go back up, things are going to get very very very ugly. Alas, greater fool theory at its finest with “investment” watches I suppose.


It reminds me the response of Warren Buffet: https://youtu.be/NBVDqAHQ4-M?t=137

And it is again a reminder of the difference between investing and speculating.

What greys try to push as a message to their clients *: https://www.tiktok.com/@cryptomalays...21221018340635
The reality about the dip: https://www.tiktok.com/@cryptomalays...75602514021658

* Never follow the advices from someone who has not to handle the consequences (These greys are terrible...): https://youtu.be/Vwjh7ehlrwY?t=554
QuelleHeureEstIl is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 24 August 2022, 06:17 AM   #936
soicanbefree
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: NYC
Posts: 260
Black Full Set Daytona 2021 27K Sold.

Let's look for some ticks in the 25-26s over the next week.
__________________
Modern: 116610LV / 114300 / AP 15202ST
Vintage: 1016 - Gilt Chapter Ring Underline + Exclamation Point / 16618 - Black / 1803 Orange Stella Dial
soicanbefree is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 24 August 2022, 06:55 AM   #937
QuelleHeureEstIl
Banned
 
Join Date: Feb 2021
Location: Gnve
Posts: 595
Quote:
Originally Posted by soicanbefree View Post
Black Full Set Daytona 2021 27K Sold.

Let's look for some ticks in the 25-26s over the next week.
QuelleHeureEstIl is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 24 August 2022, 08:56 AM   #938
HAL330
Banned
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Real Name: xyz
Location: xyz
Watch: xyz
Posts: 585
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fedpete View Post
Like absolutely insane right? The DD40 Olive was a watch in the low to mid thirties all day on this forum a few years ago. I said this to the crowd in main forum a few months back and was basically piled on because nobody could accept the coming reality.

China is about to go down economically. This market isn’t returning. It’s actually headed back to the 2015 days of full ad cabinets. Screen shot this. It’ll take some time but that’s where it’s going. Greys will be selling under retail as they did for years upon years upon years.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
The doom and gloom is entertaining .... I've been thru so many up and down turns by now that I'm numb to it.. the same doom and gloom (hoard gold, silver) crowd always predicting the end of the western world.

I predict by the end of 2023... we'll be back on track to many new market records.. but I do agree the days of 3-4X MSRP for Rolex are a long way away, if ever... but fully stocked ADs? There is much more in play now... Watches are now more than ever status symbols, and it's not just watch nerds like us trying to snap them up... don't expect to see ANY sport Rolexes in display cases anytime soon.

Screen shot this.
HAL330 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 24 August 2022, 09:00 AM   #939
Rickkk
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2022
Location: UK
Posts: 330
Quote:
Originally Posted by HAL330 View Post
The doom and gloom is entertaining .... I've been thru so many up and down turns by now that I'm numb to it.. the same doom and gloom (hoard gold, silver) crowd always predicting the end of the western world.

I predict by the end of 2023... we'll be back on track to many new market records.. but I do agree the days of 3-4X MSRP for Rolex are a long way away, if ever... but fully stocked ADs? There is much more in play now... Watches are now more than ever status symbols, and it's not just watch nerds like us trying to snap them up... don't expect to see ANY sport Rolexes in display cases anytime soon.

Screen shot this.
Don’t need to screenshot. Runs in cycles. This is just the bottom or almost. May take longer than other cycles but the gloom and doom crowd do make me laugh!
Rickkk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 24 August 2022, 09:04 AM   #940
HAL330
Banned
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Real Name: xyz
Location: xyz
Watch: xyz
Posts: 585
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rickkk View Post
Don’t need to screenshot. Runs in cycles. This is just the bottom or almost. May take longer than other cycles but the gloom and doom crowd do make me laugh!
If you listen to some on here, we're going to look back to today's the good times for the economy (we're in a recession right now)... I agree, we're dragging the bottom... might go up and down for another year but we'll be roaring again by late 2023.. I'm buying into the market now... not selling.
HAL330 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 24 August 2022, 04:27 PM   #941
RJM25R
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Real Name: Rick
Location: U.K. Northwest
Posts: 260
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fedpete View Post
Like absolutely insane right? The DD40 Olive was a watch in the low to mid thirties all day on this forum a few years ago. I said this to the crowd in main forum a few months back and was basically piled on because nobody could accept the coming reality.

China is about to go down economically. This market isnt returning. Its actually headed back to the 2015 days of full ad cabinets. Screen shot this. Itll take some time but thats where its going. Greys will be selling under retail as they did for years upon years upon years.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Quote:
Originally Posted by HAL330 View Post
The doom and gloom is entertaining .... I've been thru so many up and down turns by now that I'm numb to it.. the same doom and gloom (hoard gold, silver) crowd always predicting the end of the western world.

I predict by the end of 2023... we'll be back on track to many new market records.. but I do agree the days of 3-4X MSRP for Rolex are a long way away, if ever... but fully stocked ADs? There is much more in play now... Watches are now more than ever status symbols, and it's not just watch nerds like us trying to snap them up... don't expect to see ANY sport Rolexes in display cases anytime soon.

Screen shot this.

Im not saying I necessarily agree with the timescale but imho, if a global pandemic didnt kill the hype, I dont know what will.

Recession has been before and will come again. Its cyclical!
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by fsprow View Post
The Rolex factories are shut down for an indefinite period. They have also demonstrated in the past that they know how to control production to keep the price of their product high.
RJM25R is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 24 August 2022, 10:55 PM   #942
soicanbefree
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: NYC
Posts: 260
2019 Daytona Black Full Set asking 27K. Unsold but has an offer of 25.5 on it.

2022 Pepsi Used Full Set asking 19.5. Unsold after almost 24H.

2020 Starbucks Used Full Set asking 16.7K Unsold after 10H.

2021 Cookie Monster Lightly Used Complete Set . 38.7K Unsold Over 24H
__________________
Modern: 116610LV / 114300 / AP 15202ST
Vintage: 1016 - Gilt Chapter Ring Underline + Exclamation Point / 16618 - Black / 1803 Orange Stella Dial
soicanbefree is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 25 August 2022, 01:54 AM   #943
Doc Savage
2024 Pledge Member
 
Doc Savage's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2018
Real Name: Bill
Location: Indiana
Watch: Submariner 124060
Posts: 6,632
Quote:
Originally Posted by RJM25R View Post
Im not saying I necessarily agree with the timescale but imho, if a global pandemic didnt kill the hype, I dont know what will...
The economic pain of the pandemic was limited in some areas, and all of that down time, combined with supply chain issues and workplace interruptions, created a shortage of many luxury products. For those items already in high demand, the increased buying pressure pushed gray market prices into the stratosphere.

The current economic downturn in Europe and the US is broader than it was in 2020, and we will probably not see the V shaped recovery of two years ago. Even more importantly, China is wrecked economically right now. Since East Asia contributed a very large percentage of the increased demand/hype of Rolex, the loss of a lot of that demand, while probably temporary, will be seen in the lower prices for luxury goods.

I'm not going to rush in to buy new Rolex now. We still have more months of prices dropping on the gray market, imo.
__________________
The real problem of humanity is we have Paleolithic emotions, medieval institutions, and godlike technology.

-Edward O. Wilson
Doc Savage is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 25 August 2022, 02:00 AM   #944
messikens
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2021
Location: SFO
Posts: 987
Quote:
Originally Posted by soicanbefree View Post
2019 Daytona Black Full Set asking 27K. Unsold but has an offer of 25.5 on it.

2022 Pepsi Used Full Set asking 19.5. Unsold after almost 24H.

2020 Starbucks Used Full Set asking 16.7K Unsold after 10H.

2021 Cookie Monster Lightly Used Complete Set . 38.7K Unsold Over 24H

Whoa things are going to turn dire soon!

Daytona not selling at 27k and Pepsi not selling immediately at under 20k is (in the grand scheme of things over the last two years) pretty shocking!

Guess the herd has now turned into a "wait and see" game.

FWIW (and I know it's not the same category) I have just been contacted by my AD for a Black Bay Ceramic that I had asked about (and was told they don't have it, long list etc) and then about 4 months ago told them I am not going to wait and they can remove me as I am going with an FXD. Maybe curious timing, maybe another sign of ADs now having to go way down the list to sell new pieces...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
messikens is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 25 August 2022, 02:47 AM   #945
QuelleHeureEstIl
Banned
 
Join Date: Feb 2021
Location: Gnve
Posts: 595
Quote:
Originally Posted by RJM25R View Post
Im not saying I necessarily agree with the timescale but imho, if a global pandemic didnt kill the hype, I dont know what will.
The end of free money maybe...
QuelleHeureEstIl is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 25 August 2022, 04:13 AM   #946
soicanbefree
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: NYC
Posts: 260
Quote:
Originally Posted by Doc Savage View Post
The economic pain of the pandemic was limited in some areas, and all of that down time, combined with supply chain issues and workplace interruptions, created a shortage of many luxury products. For those items already in high demand, the increased buying pressure pushed gray market prices into the stratosphere.

The current economic downturn in Europe and the US is broader than it was in 2020, and we will probably not see the V shaped recovery of two years ago. Even more importantly, China is wrecked economically right now. Since East Asia contributed a very large percentage of the increased demand/hype of Rolex, the loss of a lot of that demand, while probably temporary, will be seen in the lower prices for luxury goods.

I'm not going to rush in to buy new Rolex now. We still have more months of prices dropping on the gray market, imo.
People were trapped at home. Paid extra money and had no where to to spend it.

No travel. No eating out. No services or experiences.

It shifted all the regular cash and extra cash to discretionary goods.

This is going to be a recession induced by the government intended to halt inflation and cause pain.

So what I am saying is this has no parallel whatsoever to the pandemic.
__________________
Modern: 116610LV / 114300 / AP 15202ST
Vintage: 1016 - Gilt Chapter Ring Underline + Exclamation Point / 16618 - Black / 1803 Orange Stella Dial
soicanbefree is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 25 August 2022, 04:18 AM   #947
stephentross
2024 Pledge Member
 
stephentross's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Southwest USA
Watch: Sea Dweller 116600
Posts: 892
I have been in the market for sometime to add a brand new, never worn sub to the collection and the prices have come down some. Everyone is different. But I am not buying from a gray unless it is max 25% markup. over 25% and I am not playing that game. I walked into the AD and the list is shorter. I'm not 2 years out anymore. He said maybe 13 months or so. Look. The prices are going to fall in line with msrp + 10% eventually, You just have to be willing to wait. and if I am wrong, I am wrong and I still have my cash and cash is king.
stephentross is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 25 August 2022, 04:58 AM   #948
Doc Savage
2024 Pledge Member
 
Doc Savage's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2018
Real Name: Bill
Location: Indiana
Watch: Submariner 124060
Posts: 6,632
Quote:
Originally Posted by soicanbefree View Post
People were trapped at home. Paid extra money and had no where to to spend it.



No travel. No eating out. No services or experiences.



It shifted all the regular cash and extra cash to discretionary goods.



This is going to be a recession induced by the government intended to halt inflation and cause pain.



So what I am saying is this has no parallel whatsoever to the pandemic.
I'm saying the same thing...other than the government wanting to cause pain. That pain is just the predictable byproduct of fighting high inflation once it appears.
__________________
The real problem of humanity is we have Paleolithic emotions, medieval institutions, and godlike technology.

-Edward O. Wilson
Doc Savage is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 25 August 2022, 05:29 AM   #949
EEpro
2024 Pledge Member
 
EEpro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2019
Real Name: Brad
Location: Purdue
Watch: Daytona
Posts: 9,017
Prices slump by up to 50% for discontinued Rolex watches (Watchpro)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Doc Savage View Post
I'm saying the same thing...other than the government wanting to cause pain. That pain is just the predictable byproduct of fighting high inflation once it appears.

Raising interest rates doesn't help lower the cost of food, cattle feed, or oil. Opening more refineries would. What it does is slow down the demand for goods by making us poorer. That is the purpose. Demand destruction.
__________________
Ω
2FA Active
EEpro is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 25 August 2022, 09:49 AM   #950
mwc5k
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Seattle
Posts: 96
I saw some stock in the case for the first time in a while today. Two tone ladies datejusts with diamond bezels. Not much but it’s a start.
mwc5k is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 25 August 2022, 11:32 AM   #951
ajw45
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2019
Location: NYC
Posts: 419
https://www.brecorder.com/news/40192596

Exports up over 8% yoy in July and over 13% to the US, strong share increase thanks to China mess, EU recession, and strong usd to eur. Production at all time highs AND larger allocation to the US. You gotta have rocks in your head or have a terminal disease to be paying over MSRP at the moment.
ajw45 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 25 August 2022, 12:32 PM   #952
NeoDough
"TRF" Member
 
NeoDough's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: Los Angeles
Watch: GMT2
Posts: 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fedpete View Post
This market isnt returning. Its actually headed back to the 2015 days of full ad cabinets. Screen shot this. Itll take some time but thats where its going. Greys will be selling under retail as they did for years upon years upon years.
I don't want you to be right (and wish you weren't) but I think you are probably closer than the bulls are.

Quote:
Originally Posted by QuelleHeureEstIl View Post
The end of free money maybe...
That's it, right there.
NeoDough is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 25 August 2022, 12:37 PM   #953
NeoDough
"TRF" Member
 
NeoDough's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: Los Angeles
Watch: GMT2
Posts: 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by soicanbefree View Post
This is going to be a recession induced by the government intended to halt inflation and cause pain.
In fairness, it's intended to reduce the odds of extremely corrosive chronic "disease" by inflicting relatively modest short-term acute pain. I'm not exactly an economic interventionist, but it's disingenuous to suggest that the Fed doesn't have the long-term interests of the U.S. economy as their first and foremost priority. Having said that, their track record is not something to brag about.
NeoDough is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 25 August 2022, 02:19 PM   #954
28mm
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2020
Location: USA
Posts: 1,317
Quote:
Originally Posted by soicanbefree View Post
Black Full Set Daytona 2021 27K Sold.

Let's look for some ticks in the 25-26s over the next week.
Where was this and full set?
__________________
124060 126610LV 16613 116710LN 16710 116713 126710BLNR 116520 16570 214270 16622 116400V 116900 124300 114300 * 116334 116519LN 126720VTNR
28mm is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 25 August 2022, 05:35 PM   #955
soicanbefree
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: NYC
Posts: 260
Quote:
Originally Posted by 28mm View Post
Where was this and full set?
MODA. Full set.
__________________
Modern: 116610LV / 114300 / AP 15202ST
Vintage: 1016 - Gilt Chapter Ring Underline + Exclamation Point / 16618 - Black / 1803 Orange Stella Dial
soicanbefree is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 26 August 2022, 02:21 AM   #956
HAL330
Banned
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Real Name: xyz
Location: xyz
Watch: xyz
Posts: 585
while we're on the topic of price slumps...


I'm trying to get an Omega "Ed White" Cal 321 which has an MSRP of $14.1K in the US.. and the absolute rock bottom best price I can find anywhere is $20K... about the same as it's been for the past 2 years...

When is this one going to crash so I can get a bargain on it?
HAL330 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 26 August 2022, 02:26 AM   #957
Travis Gaudette
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2022
Location: British Columbia
Posts: 1
Big thanks!

Very cool info. Thanks
Travis Gaudette is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 26 August 2022, 02:54 AM   #958
EEpro
2024 Pledge Member
 
EEpro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2019
Real Name: Brad
Location: Purdue
Watch: Daytona
Posts: 9,017
Quote:
Originally Posted by HAL330 View Post
while we're on the topic of price slumps...


I'm trying to get an Omega "Ed White" Cal 321 which has an MSRP of $14.1K in the US.. and the absolute rock bottom best price I can find anywhere is $20K... about the same as it's been for the past 2 years...

When is this one going to crash so I can get a bargain on it?

Apparently it is imminently imminent. Hang in there.
__________________
Ω
2FA Active
EEpro is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 26 August 2022, 03:08 AM   #959
HAL330
Banned
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Real Name: xyz
Location: xyz
Watch: xyz
Posts: 585
Quote:
Originally Posted by EEpro View Post
Apparently it is imminently imminent. Hang in there.
right... and the check is in the mail ;)
HAL330 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 26 August 2022, 04:08 AM   #960
malice146
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: michigan
Posts: 34
Prices slump by up to 50% for discontinued Rolex watches (Watchpro)

Quote:
Originally Posted by HAL330 View Post
while we're on the topic of price slumps...


I'm trying to get an Omega "Ed White" Cal 321 which has an MSRP of $14.1K in the US.. and the absolute rock bottom best price I can find anywhere is $20K... about the same as it's been for the past 2 years...

When is this one going to crash so I can get a bargain on it?

It came out in 2020 and me wonders if Rolex re released the 5513 or 1675 if they would be selling over retail 2 years later.

Just seen a Batman go up for sub 16k.
Guess they hit rock bottom

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalko
malice146 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 4 (0 members and 4 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Coronet

Takuya Watches

Bobs Watches

OCWatches

Asset Appeal

My Watch LLC

DavidSW Watches


*Banners Of The Month*
This space is provided to horological resources.





Copyright 2004-2024, The Rolex Forums. All Rights Reserved.

ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX

Rolex is a registered trademark of ROLEX USA. The Rolex Forums is not affiliated with ROLEX USA in any way.