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Old 3 November 2022, 09:26 AM   #1531
ronricks
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Originally Posted by Turbo Racer View Post
Watches continue to drop and excellent comments. Been learning a lot from you guys. Couple of thoughts. What do you think about pm watches vs SS? I think pm will likely trade 10-20% msrp and SS Daytonas will end up in high teens and gmts will end up at or near msrp?
I think the SS Daytona ends up around $17.5 by February.
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Old 3 November 2022, 09:55 AM   #1532
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The guy I deal with is high up in the organization to know whats happening but he is holding the company line, or he's in denial.
What strikes me is the uniformity of the message. I visit 4 Rolex AD in 2 different regions. And I get almost the same message.

Sales team guideline coming from the top?

My wife has a friend who was working in a clothing chain (Esprit) 10 years ago. They had so precise guidelines: what to say, how to react, etc.
I was honestly frightened by this industry. Of course nobody was really perfectly following them because the company was too big, but the store manager had to police her team.

It would not surprise me if rolex is also providing guidelines/help to the sales teams for these subjects.
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Old 3 November 2022, 12:25 PM   #1533
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10-20 below you’re saying?


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Yeah I was thinking the same because most PM pieces except full Pm Daytonas are mostly around MSRP on Moda. Not here but definitely there

Good and bad because I’m mostly a PM wearer. Obviously Good because I can maybe snag a few good deals.

Bad because it looks like even my A D PM purchases aren’t safe

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Exactly the case. I was at my Rolex AD a week ago and they are either still pushing this belief or they are clueless. I doubt it's the latter, but they are still selling everything that comes in. They need to reach the point of having watches sitting in the case for sale without it being pre-sold to completely get the message. It's just a matter of time.

The guy I deal with is high up in the organization to know whats happening but he is holding the company line, or he's in denial.
EXACTLY!! We still have a good way to go to snap some of these A D’s outta there 2-3 year high almighty attitudes and business is booming

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I think the SS Daytona ends up around $17.5 by February.
Jeez idk. With the recent higher MSRP that’s like MSRP with tax for some areas. Don’t know if I see it ever being that low. And yes I’ve seen quite a few in the 24k range as of late but 17k is a looooong way away from 24k. Not normally but just looking at the Msrp of the 116500. And we all know how A D’s like to treat anything Daytona

But I could be wrong
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Old 3 November 2022, 03:47 PM   #1534
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Silver 26240ST BNIB 50th anniversary - 44k at auction (again a high watermark given auction dynamics on MODA). Lower and lower we go!
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Old 4 November 2022, 12:20 AM   #1535
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I saw a comment on Vadim’s post about pricing on Nov 1st. Someone said “yesterday’s cheap is not today’s cheap”. Couldn’t help but get a chuckle out of given the current market.
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Old 4 November 2022, 12:28 AM   #1536
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I saw a comment on Vadim’s post about pricing on Nov 1st. Someone said “yesterday’s cheap is not today’s cheap”. Couldn’t help but get a chuckle out of given the current market.
I saw that too. He must be getting complaints from sellers about offers being “disrespectful”.
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Old 4 November 2022, 12:30 AM   #1537
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24.75 full set mint black Daytona unsold for almost a day
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Old 4 November 2022, 02:21 AM   #1538
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Originally Posted by Kirk Lazarus View Post
I saw a comment on Vadim’s post about pricing on Nov 1st. Someone said “yesterday’s cheap is not today’s cheap”. Couldn’t help but get a chuckle out of given the current market.
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I saw that too. He must be getting complaints from sellers about offers being “disrespectful”.
Yeah pretty telling. As they say all things that go up must come down

I am in no way anti Grey. Have some good relationships with a few/mainly one that is great. He knows who he is but I just want some normalcy. 80-125k for PM pieces that Msrp around 39-40k was straight insane. But I guess at the same time so were trade values. Its all relevant
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Old 4 November 2022, 02:35 AM   #1539
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Yeah pretty telling. As they say all things that go up must come down

I am in no way anti Grey. Have some good relationships with a few/mainly one that is great. He knows who he is but I just want some normalcy. 80-125k for PM pieces that Msrp around 39-40k was straight insane. But I guess at the same time so were trade values. Its all relevant
what's going to light fire to all this though is that a lot of people who paid exorbitant grey prices actually couldn't even afford that, they were justifying the purchase as an 'investment'. they were never really 'into watches' to begin. this trickles down much more they'll start jumping ship too. some already have

this is an entire reckoning lurking in the shadows for some guys. especially those who were spending half their net worth on timepieces.
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Old 4 November 2022, 06:48 AM   #1540
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what's going to light fire to all this though is that a lot of people who paid exorbitant grey prices actually couldn't even afford that, they were justifying the purchase as an 'investment'.

this is an entire reckoning lurking in the shadows for some guys. especially those who were spending half their net worth on timepieces.
Yep! I'm buying this trinket that costs more than a car because it's guaranteed to double in 6 months.

I'm starting to think there were far, far more "investors" than end users buying over the last 2 years.

With the market tanking, even though there will be good deals I don't think demand will easily outstrip supply as 2 years worth of (hoarded) grey market stock enters the market at realistic prices. Regardless of how much money one has, the vast majority of real collectors don't buy every dial & case variation of the same watch "just because they can" & it's "cheap". How many GMT's do I need? How many Daytona's or Royal Oaks? They're all essentially the same. I'd rather mix it up between different manufacturers and styles; not just pick up every chrono or GMT I can find.
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Old 4 November 2022, 09:24 AM   #1541
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Yep! I'm buying this trinket that costs more than a car because it's guaranteed to double in 6 months.

I'm starting to think there were far, far more "investors" than end users buying over the last 2 years.

With the market tanking, even though there will be good deals I don't think demand will easily outstrip supply as 2 years worth of (hoarded) grey market stock enters the market at realistic prices. Regardless of how much money one has, the vast majority of real collectors don't buy every dial & case variation of the same watch "just because they can" & it's "cheap". How many GMT's do I need? How many Daytona's or Royal Oaks? They're all essentially the same. I'd rather mix it up between different manufacturers and styles; not just pick up every chrono or GMT I can find.

Totally with you - I would call myself a moderate enthusiast who didnt go crazy on anything, either in good times or bad times.

That said, I DO think there were MANY people who caught wind of the craze and said "you know what, I'll pretend to have always wanted a $45k AP or a $14k Rolex at retail knowing that once I walk out the store I have basically doubled my money and it may go up higher". So I feel bad for SAs who had to contend with likely 5x the historical volume of people who "really" wanted to own this GMT for that special anniversary...

Now it's the opposite - you know it's going to fall by another 10-15% over the next 1.5 months and smart folks are on the sideline. Still picking up at retail but I am sure SAs are moving a bit further down the call list with a lot of flaky interested parties now going "you know what, plunking down $50k and likely being out 15k when I walk out is a different value prop"
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Old 4 November 2022, 01:01 PM   #1542
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Question Moda Folks - what are Green Olive Dial Rose Gold Day-Date 228235 selling for? Thank you in advance.


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Old 4 November 2022, 01:38 PM   #1543
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Question Moda Folks - what are Green Olive Dial Rose Gold Day-Date 228235 selling for? Thank you in advance.
Searching "228235 olive", they appear to be selling, but you don't see the sales price after the fact. There is one (2019) that's been sitting since the 26th for $47.5
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Old 4 November 2022, 01:56 PM   #1544
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Searching "228235 olive", they appear to be selling, but you don't see the sales price after the fact. There is one (2019) that's been sitting since the 26th for $47.5

Greatly appreciated. Is that with box and papers?


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Old 4 November 2022, 02:12 PM   #1545
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Greatly appreciated. Is that with box and papers?
Yes, it was used, but complete (or described that way).
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Old 4 November 2022, 04:02 PM   #1546
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Searching "228235 olive", they appear to be selling, but you don't see the sales price after the fact. There is one (2019) that's been sitting since the 26th for $47.5
FYI you can sometimes view edit history to see the asking price.
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Old 4 November 2022, 07:52 PM   #1547
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I find dealers who get indignant about low offers really ridiculous.

Oftentimes lowball offers are a way of beginning negotiations.
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Old 5 November 2022, 12:40 AM   #1548
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I find dealers who get indignant about low offers really ridiculous.

Oftentimes lowball offers are a way of beginning negotiations.
Agreed. How else are you going to find their bottom price?
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Old 5 November 2022, 01:24 AM   #1549
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I find dealers who get indignant about low offers really ridiculous.

Oftentimes lowball offers are a way of beginning negotiations.
Something is ONLY as valuable as what someone is willing to pay... and not one penny more.
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Old 5 November 2022, 07:55 AM   #1550
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FYI you can sometimes view edit history to see the asking price.
Good to know, thanks!
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Old 5 November 2022, 10:34 AM   #1551
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Prices slump by up to 50% for discontinued Rolex watches (Watchpro)

Follow up question for my Moda folks: what are blue dial 5711s going for? Do they ever come up? Thank you in advance.


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Old 5 November 2022, 12:08 PM   #1552
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Follow up question Moda folks: what are blue dial 5711s going for? Thank you in advance.


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2010 model is listed at 97.5k. Posted 6 days ago. Another one from October 21 is a 2015, also asking 97.5k.


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Old 5 November 2022, 12:57 PM   #1553
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Totally with you - I would call myself a moderate enthusiast who didnt go crazy on anything, either in good times or bad times.

That said, I DO think there were MANY people who caught wind of the craze and said "you know what, I'll pretend to have always wanted a $45k AP or a $14k Rolex at retail knowing that once I walk out the store I have basically doubled my money and it may go up higher". So I feel bad for SAs who had to contend with likely 5x the historical volume of people who "really" wanted to own this GMT for that special anniversary...

Now it's the opposite - you know it's going to fall by another 10-15% over the next 1.5 months and smart folks are on the sideline. Still picking up at retail but I am sure SAs are moving a bit further down the call list with a lot of flaky interested parties now going "you know what, plunking down $50k and likely being out 15k when I walk out is a different value prop"




Damn right it is


And to all the people who bought what they couldn’t afford just to flex or in the hopes they made a quick buck, I’m sorry deserve whatever may come. As discussed prior my 515 purchase was bought solely for the love and I KNEW for a fact I’d likely lose some money, just not as much as I’ve seen of late, but I bought it for the love and damn sure could afford it.

Granted I don’t like losing money on anything but IMO I still have one beautiful watch. And that I can live with. Especially knowing I have no shot non Grey. Why I’ll never understand
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Old 5 November 2022, 03:29 PM   #1554
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2010 model is listed at 97.5k. Posted 6 days ago. Another one from October 21 is a 2015, also asking 97.5k.


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Thank you. Surprised they haven’t gone down more, albeit could be a disconnect in the market between buyers and sellers hence low volume of sales. Interesting times…


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Old 5 November 2022, 07:18 PM   #1555
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2010 model is listed at 97.5k. Posted 6 days ago. Another one from October 21 is a 2015, also asking 97.5k.


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Adding from another thread where I had asked the same question...

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Originally Posted by aa909 View Post
same dealer group we've been discussing for the past 10 pages.




in Feb 2022 a 5711/1A sold in the same group for 220K. 2019 model, full set, excellent condition

May 2022 one sold for $150K, 2011 model full set, mint condition

In Oct 2022 one sold for $97K, full set 2015 model, excellent condition

and now Nov 1st the last one sold in auction for $80K, 2014 model, full set, excellent condition

I'm just sharing data points. It's a brutal down trend in the secondary market.
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Old 5 November 2022, 10:38 PM   #1556
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Adding from another thread where I had asked the same question...
5711 at 80k could be a good buy longterm.
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Old 6 November 2022, 04:07 AM   #1557
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5905-1A steel with the green dial just sold for CHF50k hammer price at Philips auction (where prices are generally inflated). Thats below retail by at least 10k. Brutal.


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Old 6 November 2022, 04:48 AM   #1558
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Full pave rainbow for 480k at Philips. &lt;2x retail. These were going for 1mn+ earlier in the year.




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Old 6 November 2022, 05:06 AM   #1559
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Now some Antiquorum results. Things got so bad here, i had to recheck like 3 times just in case im not looking at a 2017 auction.


5712 hammered at 60k


Discontinued 5960 steel absolutely decimated. Could not even meet starting bid


50% off retail


Just no words. These were pushing 80k earlier

Very few lots have sold. Most have not met the reserve. Things are bad folks.


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Old 6 November 2022, 05:52 AM   #1560
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I expected most Rolex steel models to be available to purchase immediately within 8-12 months from an AD (perhaps not Daytona and Pepsi), but everything else
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