the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[Star Ferry]

Originally Posted by 77T

I agree - I’m not debating. You said you have knowledge of Singapore and Malaysia numbers from those country’s official sources. I think that would be the best source.

I can only state what that other data aggregator states in their own website. What I have suggested is that by checking this, one can see how their data is represented.

https://www.worldometers.info/faq/

They're using algorithms for the real-time counters, like those on the front page of the website, which are constantly changing, e.g. with "Public Healthcare Expenditure Today" they took a real annual figure and then assumed a constant, even spend over the year.

Whereas the coronavirus counter appears to be recently added, updated periodically, and not driven by an algorithm.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

It does seem like Singapore and Japan have been relatively unscathed. Early testing and quarantines? Hygienic populace? Why have they succeeded while things look dire in Italy?

Rolex youtube fan Austin Daniels took a nice jaunt around Toyko...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nDVZI8fWWRw

He said it was a little less crowded, but most people seemed to be going about their day without too much social distancing...

There is something that noticeable however.

90% of people were wearing facemasks. Just basic surgical masks...since I don't think all these people were running around sick (the west says thats the ONLY reason to wear one), perhaps THAT is why the virus isn't rampaging through the populace?

[gtnator]

Originally Posted by TheDude

Exactly: I have something set up for Friday morning and this was my logic. Starting to reconsider even that...


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My appointment was today. I canceled an hour prior and they (GE) totally understood. In fact the guy was kind of relieved as he said after today they’re not going into people’s homes.


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[pickettt]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Rolex youtube fan Austin Daniels took a nice jaunt around Toyko...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nDVZI8fWWRw

He said it was a little less crowded, but most people seemed to be going about their day without too much social distancing...

There is something that noticeable however.

90% of people were wearing facemasks. Just basic surgical masks...since I don't think all these people were running around sick (the west says thats the ONLY reason to wear one), perhaps THAT is why the virus isn't rampaging through the populace?

I'm still stuck on this mask thing too. They say the mask doesn't prevent you from getting infected, but only prevents you from infecting someone else. However, if you can be asymptomatic and still infect others (as they say)...then EVERYONE should be wearing a mask since those who can infect others don't even know they can. It's simple to understand. So simple that... nevermind.

[nda]

I went to buy some lavatory paper from an official outlet, but was told that I would need to buy some kitchen roll (super absorbent) and some man size tissues first and then I could go on a list for the rolls.

[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by nda

I went to buy some lavatory paper from an official outlet, but was told that I would need to buy some kitchen roll (super absorbent) and some man size tissues first and then I could go on a list for the rolls.

Try a gray dealer.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by pickettt

I'm still stuck on this mask thing too. They say the mask doesn't prevent you from getting infected, but only prevents you from infecting someone else. However, if you can be asymptomatic and still infect others (as they say)...then EVERYONE should be wearing a mask since those who can infect others don't even know they can. It's simple to understand. So simple that... nevermind.

Yep. I agree...It "seems" to work there...idk...

[BNA/LION]

This mask is working for me. I'm hanging at home and don't really need or want to wear a N95 mask.

Be safe out there everyone!

[Fleetlord]

Any encounter with anyone is a dangerous meeting at this point.

A simple family dinner party with a Coronavirus infected guest ended up with 3 dead in the family, plus the guest who also died.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/n...NG0VDR9w_1H0SY

Sadly I think there will be more of these stories as the warnings just are not being heeded.

[Michigan_State]

Originally Posted by superdog

In Italy you have multiple generations living together.

And a less than desirable healthcare system.

A simple research would suggest you’re wrong on the healthcare system.

[nda]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Any encounter with anyone is a dangerous meeting at this point.

.

It is sensible to treat everything and everyone outside the home as highly contagious.

Some Londoners are completely ignoring the official advice and continue to visit pubs and cafes - there is a growing rumour that London will be put in lockdown as a result.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by nda

It is sensible to treat everything and everyone outside the home as highly contagious.

Some Londoners are completely ignoring the official advice and continue to visit pubs and cafes - there is a growing rumour that London will be put in lockdown as a result.

They will have to force compliance unless UK is really going with the herd immunity strategy...

[Andad]

Originally Posted by superdog

It’s going to be the end of everything we know.

Relax and enjoy your new Patek.

[DJ39]

Originally Posted by nda

I went to buy some lavatory paper from an official outlet, but was told that I would need to buy some kitchen roll (super absorbent) and some man size tissues first and then I could go on a list for the rolls.

I hear guys are getting in line early in the morning at supermarket ADs then flipping the TP above retail. Flippers!!


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[Speedbird-1]

Originally Posted by jatco

Am I missing something..??
What's with the high demand and stock piling of toilet paper...?
Are you using more than normal... Just

Every time someone sneezes, 5 people nearby, crap themselves.

[lovetherolex]

Originally Posted by superdog

You’ve made you point.

You don’t need to continue being antagonistic. Please stop.

Antagonistic. That word doesn’t mean what you think it means Seth.

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

Thank you for the kind words. Brett reached out to me privately, and we came to a mutual understanding and respect.

Respected, and glad to hear it, and most importantly thank you for continuing to engage here. This thread often has many members and even more guests frequenting it, and I think everybody is looking for more understanding considering the mysterious nature of the antagonist we are dealing with. And these are super contributions.

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

Perhaps you misunderstand my “emotional” posts. I welcome Professional inputs, but I didn’t appreciate someone belittling me for an opinion (hope prayer) that medical science will find a cure before the predicted hundreds of thousands die. I don’t understand and maybe you can explain it to me; what is wrong with that? Is it scientifically improbable (impossible) and perhaps I am praying for a miracle, but I will continue to pray that happens.

I haven’t heard of a hope prayer before so I don’t understand its format if it has one, and there is no doubt room for everyone’s ways of coping when performed reasonably. If you’re asking me I think it’s a less than constructive response to come back at a contributor with any generalized response over and over, that was highlighted by the discourse dying and losing the professional input as a result. Saying your piece is what we are all here for, it turns into something else if it becomes a circular one note reflexive.

Beyond the dynamic I personally don’t care what anyone says and think everyone should say their piece, even the banned guys at least we know them for who they are.

If I may soapbox for a second...we won’t maintain the forum’s utility during this extraordinary time if professionals educated in their fields in any subject aren’t appreciated or lose the space to make their contributions in serving the greater good and need, which is presumably their aim, and one that I so appreciate. That’s bigger than any individual member’s feelings from a community standpoint. I certainly don’t think my opinion is more important than that taking place.

That said Paul I don’t have anything against your personal way of coping with this whole mess. Society is looking for a port in the storm and being that we are all on the same boat I get that everyone is stressed out these days, I see it everywhere the same as everybody else. Let’s all hold hands and chant or something...or maybe just the chant in 2020.

[mountainjogger]

Here is an article from MIT Technology Review which discusses application of the measures advocated in the the Imperial College report.

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/6...ing-18-months/

The the article helped me understand the rolling measures a lot better. So, I might add have a few days think, not to mention some of the points raised on posts on this forum. And I withdraw my earlier post criticizing this approach.

The MIT article also points out that if predictions of this event are accurate, we will not be going back to normal during the down periods in the 18 month projected time line, and to some extent ever. If the changes from 9/11 are any indication, we will have lasting changes on social interactions and the interface between technology and society, as well as the use of our data.

Stay safe.

[Zakalwe]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

Here is an article from MIT Technology Review which discusses application of the measures advocated in the the Imperial College report.

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/6...ing-18-months/

The the article helped me understand the rolling measures a lot better. So, I might add have a few days think, not to mention some of the points raised on posts on this forum. And I withdraw my earlier post criticizing this approach.

The MIT article also points out that if predictions of this event are accurate, we will not be going back to normal during the down periods in the 18 month projected time line, and to some extent ever. If the changes from 9/11 are any indication, we will have lasting changes on social interactions and the interface between technology and society, as well as the use of our data.

Stay safe.

A sobering read.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by lovetherolex

I haven’t heard of a hope prayer before so I don’t understand its format if it has one

Read your entire post. Agree with some points. However....

This remark concerning others' religious beliefs is not productive or polite. It detracts from the point you are trying to make and adds fuel to the fire. Please rethink your approach.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

A sobering read.

Agree Sal. But it also carries hope.

Stay safe my friend.

[lovetherolex]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Any encounter with anyone is a dangerous meeting at this point.

A simple family dinner party with a Coronavirus infected guest ended up with 3 dead in the family, plus the guest who also died.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/n...NG0VDR9w_1H0SY

Sadly I think there will be more of these stories as the warnings just are not being heeded.

Stories like this are difficult to read. Tragically avoidable, but then the family seems to have had an usually consistent susceptibility to the virus, which makes me wonder how much genetic consistency there is in that regard. I imagine the data will answer that question as this thing progresses.

It seems the general public takes offense at this tiny part of nature limiting their lives for days or weeks or a few months, and it begets a reaction to stand fast and continue the routine. It makes me question the threshold at which the “median” human takes effective notice and acts in self interest. Much of humanity has never had this much safety and security, it’s not our natural mental habitat and I think that results in us not having our natural defenses up.

The partiers on the beach for spring break come to mind. Paradoxical to self preservation when you have incomplete or emerging information and you just don’t know for sure.

And I don’t want to hear about Freud’s theory on this point, I can’t get on board with many of his ideas including that one.

[padi56]

Although it might feel good to joke a little bit but lets keep this thread on subject and the jokes in the joke forum.

[Zakalwe]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

Agree Sal. But it also carries hope.

Stay safe my friend.

And you mate

[lovetherolex]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

Read your entire post. Agree with some points. However....

This remark concerning others' religious beliefs is not productive or polite. It detracts from the point you are trying to make and adds fuel to the fire. Please rethink your approach.

I don’t know the man’s religion, not did it cross my mind, nor is that a basis for anything in my discussion about driving away Doctors. Not a clue why you are invoking that. Really quite confusing actually.

Have never heard the term “hope prayer” termed like that, that’s not a remark it’s a true statement, if anything that’s an opening for elucidation. Is that ok with you? Because it’s a pretty reasonable position if you’re not searching for offense.

In fact if I had to guess I’d have taken it more as a New Age type of thing. I would recognize a prayer from scripture but this was not that, so what are we talking about here. Are you projecting something because really don’t get where you’re coming from. Let’s not get into the weeds. I’m much more concerned with families perishing because of a dinner and what can be learned from that and genetics vis-a-vis this virus.

Boy everyone is extra sensitive these last couple weeks. Life in 2020.

Almost makes you forget we came together over the commonality of watches at TRF.

[77T]

Originally Posted by lovetherolex

Boy everyone is extra sensitive these last couple weeks. Life in 2020.

True and he wasn’t expressing personal offense. Mountainjogger was only sharing an observation to help.

If it’s helpful, think of this thread like an “Officer Down” thread with regard to someone saying “prayers for the family” or “Godspeed”. That wouldn’t be the time or place to question that poster’s comment. It’s just a context thing.

Please don’t take offense, just sharing in the spirit of communication.


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[Patton250]

Originally Posted by lovetherolex

I don’t know the man’s religion, not did it cross my mind, nor is that a basis for anything in my discussion about driving away Doctors. Not a clue why you are invoking that. Really quite confusing actually.

Have never heard the term “hope prayer” termed like that, that’s not a remark it’s a true statement, if anything that’s an opening for elucidation. Is that ok with you? Because it’s a pretty reasonable position if you’re not searching for offense.

In fact if I had to guess I’d have taken it more as a New Age type of thing. I would recognize a prayer from scripture but this was not that, so what are we talking about here. Are you projecting something because really don’t get where you’re coming from. Let’s not get into the weeds. I’m much more concerned with families perishing because of a dinner and what can be learned from that and genetics vis-a-vis this virus.

Boy everyone is extra sensitive these last couple weeks. Life in 2020.

Almost makes you forget we came together over the commonality of watches at TRF.

Not really confusing. You poked at another member and he called you on it. Pretty simple actually. Personally your comment to Paul up above caused me pause in my hope for mankind. Thanks

[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by lovetherolex

Antagonistic. That word doesn’t mean what you think it means Seth.



Respected, and glad to hear it, and most importantly thank you for continuing to engage here. This thread often has many members and even more guests frequenting it, and I think everybody is looking for more understanding considering the mysterious nature of the antagonist we are dealing with. And these are super contributions.



I haven’t heard of a hope prayer before so I don’t understand its format if it has one, and there is no doubt room for everyone’s ways of coping when performed reasonably. If you’re asking me I think it’s a less than constructive response to come back at a contributor with any generalized response over and over, that was highlighted by the discourse dying and losing the professional input as a result. Saying your piece is what we are all here for, it turns into something else if it becomes a circular one note reflexive.

Beyond the dynamic I personally don’t care what anyone says and think everyone should say their piece, even the banned guys at least we know them for who they are.

If I may soapbox for a second...we won’t maintain the forum’s utility during this extraordinary time if professionals educated in their fields in any subject aren’t appreciated or lose the space to make their contributions in serving the greater good and need, which is presumably their aim, and one that I so appreciate. That’s bigger than any individual member’s feelings from a community standpoint. I certainly don’t think my opinion is more important than that taking place.

That said Paul I don’t have anything against your personal way of coping with this whole mess. Society is looking for a port in the storm and being that we are all on the same boat I get that everyone is stressed out these days, I see it everywhere the same as everybody else. Let’s all hold hands and chant or something...or maybe just the chant in 2020.

Boy you wouldn’t want to hear me chant, I have a terrible singing voice. I understand that you don’t get my hope prayer, heck I’m not even sure its a correct term, I probably made it up myself. I don’t know what to call it, it is my hope prayer (and belief) that medical science will come up with a cure, vaccine, whatever, to stop all those predicted hundreds of thousands from dying. Am I Naive? Probably, and that guy sure has a heck of a lot more knowledge on the subject then I do, if this were a thread about flying fighter jets in combat then I would have more informed opinion, but I still believe and if I’m proven wrong I’ll still hope. I don’t know why anyone would want to contradict me, maybe it’s an unrealistic goal but shouldn’t everyone be hoping (praying, whatever) that my vision is true? I don’t know why anyone wouldn’t, or belittle me for it, but it is my way of coping. You are right about everyone having their peace ( I think you spelled it wrong peace versus piece, eh, either one works ) and that’s important here. And thank you for respecting my way of dealing with the stress of this, whatever yours is I wish you strength, if we all respect each other’s opinions and strive towards the goal of beating this virus (even if it is a far-reach to hope so) then we will all be better for it.

Stay safe.

[lovetherolex]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

Hopefully, if and when a company develops an antiviral effective against the Coronavirus, they won’t be allowed to charge $1000 or $5000 a dose in the US as they do with every other new medication.

Originally Posted by statsman

It depends. If, after accounting for R&D amortization, a dose costs $800 to produce, then I am fine with them making a 25% profit. This is the lesson of economics- economics systems that reward productivity get lots of productivity. Systems that don’t reward productivity (communism, some socialism, robber baron capitolism) don’t get as much productivity.

The hepatitis cure famously cost $100k...at first. What should a hepatitis sufferer say in response? “Thank you”. It took a little over a year for the cost to drop dramatically, and people should feel grateful to the researchers that helped them.

Grateful to the researchers anyone ought to be for a lifesaving treatment, now what about the organization? I’m not overly familiar with the pharmaceutical industry, but I am familiar with their profits. Are the researchers the beneficiaries of the bulk of these profits? Profit in the double digit billions is healthy to say the least. Ford builds cars that society can’t run without, and their profits are a fraction of what the drug makers pull in, yet Ford still does it. I also question this, a $100,000 drug is being paid out by an insurance industry that is also trying to save money and denying coverage in other areas. I’m no expert, but doesn’t that hamstring the healthcare system? The researchers want to help people, I imagine. The individual doesn’t have there means to pay that, in general. It seems there has been a fair bit of abuse in the pricing arena. Grateful to researchers yes, the rest of it seems smashing even at a fraction of current profits. $100,000 treatments look different in this light. Particularly when public health is at stake.

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

Here is an article from MIT Technology Review which discusses application of the measures advocated in the the Imperial College report.

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/6...ing-18-months/

I would have liked to have seen a base discussion of why, what the current conditions are that are causing us to be expecting more and more severe superbugs, and have some address at the root to establish the premise.

The approach in this article, while no doubt interesting in its forward imagination, also assumes more and worse. That’s an arguably dystopian view if it’s a presumption, and if these are not emergency measures and are ongoing. There have been major superbugs in history, as famous as our current antagonist. What happened in between? Not arguing whether these methods will work, but without taking a few steps back there are tons of scenarios you can come up with if you assume it’s this way and worse, forever. Then it’s a creative exercise and as far as I can see this article is arguing for the necessity.

[lovetherolex]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Not really confusing. You poked at another member and he called you on it. Pretty simple actually. Personally your comment to Paul up above caused me pause in my hope for mankind. Thanks

Don’t be upset about our earlier interaction. It was for the good of the thread and the community. Despite your personal comment here I have nothing against you personally.

I’m just happy the thread is back on track with a minimum of Doctor attrition.

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

Boy you wouldn’t want to hear me chant, I have a terrible singing voice. I understand that you don’t get my hope prayer, heck I’m not even sure its a correct term, I probably made it up myself. I don’t know what to call it, it is my hope prayer (and belief) that medical science will come up with a cure, vaccine, whatever, to stop all those predicted hundreds of thousands from dying. Am I Naive? Probably, and that guy sure has a heck of a lot more knowledge on the subject then I do, if this were a thread about flying fighter jets in combat then I would have more informed opinion, but I still believe and if I’m proven wrong I’ll still hope. I don’t know why anyone would want to contradict me, maybe it’s an unrealistic goal but shouldn’t everyone be hoping (praying, whatever) that my vision is true? I don’t know why anyone wouldn’t, or belittle me for it, but it is my way of coping. You are right about everyone having their peace ( I think you spelled it wrong peace versus piece, eh, either one works ) and that’s important here. And thank you for respecting my way of dealing with the stress of this, whatever yours is I wish you strength, if we all respect each other’s opinions and strive towards the goal of beating this virus (even if it is a far-reach to hope so) then we will all be better for it.

Stay safe.

Of course Paul, you as well I’m all for it, believe me I hope too, and then I’m looking for answers. I also have faith that we are going to be ok after this difficult time. Human beings have suffered hard times throughout history, but we always conquer. Always. So much of that is not giving up and pushing through, these two things, faith and seeking external knowledge, are part and parcel of the journey.

And to be perfectly clear, if we were having a discussion about fighter jets I would be nothing but an ear.

Stay safe my friend. I’d buy you a beer but there will be no collective drinking

I’m glad the person who matters got it, I don’t know about the rest of you fellas imagining things. You must be stressed.

Now we really need to hold hands and chant. Paul even you with your terrible singing voice.

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Rolex youtube fan Austin Daniels took a nice jaunt around Toyko...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nDVZI8fWWRw

He said it was a little less crowded, but most people seemed to be going about their day without too much social distancing...

There is something that noticeable however.

90% of people were wearing facemasks. Just basic surgical masks...since I don't think all these people were running around sick (the west says thats the ONLY reason to wear one), perhaps THAT is why the virus isn't rampaging through the populace?

I think face masks are a good idea either way (can't hurt), I just think the message here is for sick people only because there's a shortage.

I know they say the certain face masks won't necessarily prevent droplets from getting through, but think about it...wouldn't you rather have some barrier vs none? Would it lessen a chance of ingesting the virus? Even if a little?

Also, as Pickettt pointed out above... if we don't know who is sick and who is not, it would just be reasonable for everyone to wear one out in public as a precaution.