Vintage watch value rotation?

[dexvd]

Just watched this video on why old cars are a poor investment and it reminded me of the current vintage Daytona market... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MSZhL9fF0T0

From what I understand 20 years ago or so, it was bubble backs that were hot and collectible and now they don't seem to be anywhere close to one of the models to watch for during auctions.

His argument was that it was generational in terms of cars and that the cars that saw explosive value increases 20 years ago are now on the decline or have seen their values stabilize as the generation that grew up with them dies off and the next generation focuses on the aspirational cars of their youth which then see explosive growth.

Do you think we will see the vintage Daytona values decline or stabilize while something else shoots up value in another 20 years?

I am not someone that collects based on investment potential, rather I buy what I like and will wear but do follow the market as I do get priced out of pieces I would like to have based on these hot markets.

Just wanted to get the perspective of some that have been collecting for 10-20 or more years.

[Dr.Smellody]

Certain cars and certain watches will always command a premium. It may be a but of a bubble, but the days of $5k vibtage Daytonas are not returning.

[MorningTundra]

I’d agree with this. I’m gen-x and my watch collection reflects the influences of my formative years.


Sent from my cracked, broken hand wound phone. IG @morning_tundra

[jfmiii]

I think there is a lot of truth to this. Millenials by and large dont care much about watches. It's evident in the declining sales of Swiss manufacturers. Will they be spending $75k on a run of the mill 6263 when they reach their peak earning years? I doubt it. Vintage Daytonas are not rare. There are many out there and they will need to be sold when the Baby Boomers pass away.

Dr Smellody brings up an interesting point in saying certain cars/watches will always bring top dollar. While I certainly agree when it comes to cars, Im not sure I agree in regards to watches. The top end of the vintage car market, think Ferrari 250 GTO, is rarified air. They were made in such smaller numbers compared to even Newman Daytonas that you only need a small number of rich collectors to keep prices high. You already are seeing down prices on classic cars (see below) when asset prices are at record highs. The rich have never had more money and classic car prices are down. This a demographic shift that is causing supply to outpace demand. IMO, this will move to watches as well. So while, you probably wont ever be able to buy a 6263 for $5k again, I wouldnt be surprised at all to see them at $25-30k again at some point in the next 20 years.

Also note that we havent seen a recession or asset price correction in 10 years. The huge surge in vintage watch prices by and large occurred in the last 10 years (I bought a 16750 GMT for $1700 in early 2007, the same watch is worth ~$10k now). It will be very interesting to see what happens to prices, especially for run of the mill pieces, during the next downturn in the global economy.

http://www.businessinsider.com/vinta...othebys-2017-8

[Karbo]

Originally Posted by jfmiii

I think there is a lot of truth to this. Millenials by and large dont care much about watches. It's evident in the declining sales of Swiss manufacturers. Will they be spending $75k on a run of the mill 6263 when they reach their peak earning years? I doubt it. Vintage Daytonas are not rare. There are many out there and they will need to be sold when the Baby Boomers pass away.

Dr Smellody brings up an interesting point in saying certain cars/watches will always bring top dollar. While I certainly agree when it comes to cars, Im not sure I agree in regards to watches. The top end of the vintage car market, think Ferrari 250 GTO, is rarified air. They were made in such smaller numbers compared to even Newman Daytonas that you only need a small number of rich collectors to keep prices high. You already are seeing down prices on classic cars (see below) when asset prices are at record highs. The rich have never had more money and classic car prices are down. This a demographic shift that is causing supply to outpace demand. IMO, this will move to watches as well. So while, you probably wont ever be able to buy a 6263 for $5k again, I wouldnt be surprised at all to see them at $25-30k again at some point in the next 20 years.

Also note that we havent seen a recession or asset price correction in 10 years. The huge surge in vintage watch prices by and large occurred in the last 10 years (I bought a 16750 GMT for $1700 in early 2007, the same watch is worth ~$10k now). It will be very interesting to see what happens to prices, especially for run of the mill pieces, during the next downturn in the global economy.

http://www.businessinsider.com/vinta...othebys-2017-8

+1 I have sold my vintage

[swish77]

Originally Posted by jfmiii

So while, you probably wont ever be able to buy a 6263 for $5k again, I wouldnt be surprised at all to see them at $25-30k again at some point in the next 20 years.

Well, I'd be VERY surprised if you see that kind of drop in vintage Daytona prices, no matter how much time passes. Seems preposterous. Sure, there could be some kind of worldwide disaster or economic collapse that could lead to all kinds of changes in our lives, but I don't live thinking that's going to happen.

Good examples of vintage Daytonas are indeed (relatively) rare, at least on the open market. And prices will continue to climb, IMHO, mainly because vintage Daytonas are inherently beautiful, super cool timepieces with a history. And they ain't making them anymore. That will not change. (Full disclosure: I own one!)

[Karbo]

When I see this I dont see the point spending 30k$ for a zenith

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthre...t=16520+116520

[Tools]

Every thing is cyclical.

Once they implant the time-chips, watches will all fall by the wayside.

[SubKing]

Lots of people jump ship as soon as they have the slightest feeling of a decline.. I was one of those ppl at one point in my life. Not anymore. I like what I like regardless of value. I look at value as a bonus.


As long as Rolex keeps their designs conservative and timeless (like they always have) the vintage pieces will always be relative; even to the millennials.

A submariner from the 50’s still very much resembles a submariner of the now. I think there will always be an interest to people of all ages because of the DNA that modern still contains of their vintage counterpart. People like to know where it all started for some watch models.

As for the bubble backs, they lost interest over many factors. The size for one thing, they were just too small and awkward on the wrist. Rolex doesn’t make them anymore so it’s hard for them to be relatable and relevant to newcomers. On the other hand with sports models, they are still relevant because Rolex still produces them, they are still desirable to all age groups.

Now I don’t know 50 years from now if Rolex will still be making sports models? The same thing that happened with the bubble backs could happen to the sports models, it is unlikely but anything is possible.

As long as Rolex keeps producing the models we collect in vintage, they won’t lose interest.
And if there is interest, there will always be value.

[jfmiii]

Originally Posted by swish77

Well, I'd be VERY surprised if you see that kind of drop in vintage Daytona prices, no matter how much time passes. Seems preposterous.

everything is cyclical. look at the Bubble Back market. people still collect them, love them, but arent willing to pay what they did 25 or 30 years ago. look at classic Muscle Cars. the boomers loved them as teens, aspired to have them as adults, and drove the prices up. Then 2008 happened and they never recovered to their previous highs, and probably never will.

Back to the Daytona, below is a chart of the Chevelle LS6. There were 4500 or that were made. When the bubble in Muscle Cars burst, the LS6 prices never recovered. How many plastic Daytonas are out there? I dont know the answer but they arent rare. I could buy a pristine example tomorrow and have my choice of dozens, it is just a matter of paying; and it is expensive. I was in Rome 3 years ago and walked into a very well known vintage watch shop. They had a beautiful silver 6265 sigma and were asking 35k Euro. This is a retail shop, where prices are always higher than what a WIS with some patience could find one for. We havent seen a correction in the watch market in the last 10 years. If we entered a recession in 6 months, it seems certainly plausible (likely?) that prices on these watches could come down to where they were priced just a few years ago.

I have some other issues with the sustainability of the vintage Rolex market, specifically the future impact of the high quality fake parts coming out of Asia but that is, I suppose, for another discussion.

[swish77]

Originally Posted by jfmiii

everything is cyclical. look at the Bubble Back market. people still collect them, love them, but arent willing to pay what they did 25 or 30 years ago. look at classic Muscle Cars. the boomers loved them as teens, aspired to have them as adults, and drove the prices up. Then 2008 happened and they never recovered to their previous highs, and probably never will.

Back to the Daytona, below is a chart of the Chevelle LS6. There were 4500 or that were made. When the bubble in Muscle Cars burst, the LS6 prices never recovered. How many plastic Daytonas are out there? I dont know the answer but they arent rare. I could buy a pristine example tomorrow and have my choice of dozens, it is just a matter of paying; and it is expensive. I was in Rome 3 years ago and walked into a very well known vintage watch shop. They had a beautiful silver 6265 sigma and were asking 35k Euro. This is a retail shop, where prices are always higher than what a WIS with some patience could find one for. We havent seen a correction in the watch market in the last 10 years. If we entered a recession in 6 months, it seems certainly plausible (likely?) that prices on these watches could come down to where they were priced just a few years ago.

I have some other issues with the sustainability of the vintage Rolex market, specifically the future impact of the high quality fake parts coming out of Asia but that is, I suppose, for another discussion.

Cars and watches. Apples and oranges. And dozens of pristine examples of 6263s, or other vintage Daytonas? Really? Where? They're not out there, not for sale anyway. If they were, you'd see well-known dealers selling many of them right now. Yes, you see them once in a while, but not like 2-3 years ago.

Anything is possible, of course. A meteorite could destroy Earth in six months too. I'd say the likelihood of a 6263 priced at $25K-$30K is about the same.

[Karbo]

17 years of production for a 6263... its not rare...
Thats why I dont see the point to spend 75k$ for a nice example... I just cant understand the price gap between 6263 and 116500..

[jfmiii]

Originally Posted by swish77

Cars and watches. Apples and oranges. And dozens of pristine examples of 6263s, or other vintage Daytonas? Really? Where? They're not out there, not for sale anyway. If they were, you'd see well-known dealers selling many of them right now. Yes, you see them once in a while, but not like 2-3 years ago.

Anything is possible, of course. A meteorite could destroy Earth in six months too. I'd say the likelihood of a 6263 priced at $25K-$30K is about the same.

I'm not going to comment on the condition of any of these. Regardless of how many of these are "pristine" (which is really subjective anyway), there are 62 on chrono24 alone. I see a couple more on forums via watchrecon. Im sure there are more on dealer websites who dont post on chrono24 or in sales sections of watch forums. They arent rare. They are more rare than a 5513 sure, but they arent rare.

https://www.chrono24.com/search/inde...ccessoryTypes=

[farscott]

My opinion for what it is worth: As long as Rolex is healthy and selling lots of new watches, a certain percentage of buyers will be interested in the history of the brand and start looking at vintage. Some of those buyers will not want to pay new watch prices, and others will be captivated by those models which paved the way for what is new. Those people will be the demand for vintage models.

Those people may focus on different models that what is currently "hot", and current economic conditions will also impact demand (prices). As such, I could see a collapse in prices in certain models. And models that are worn now by "celebs" could become the focus of future collectors. Instead of Paul Newman Daytonas, Ellen Daytonas may be a thing.

[swish77]

Originally Posted by Karbo

17 years of production for a 6263... its not rare...
Thats why I dont see the point to spend 75k$ for a nice example... I just cant understand the price gap between 6263 and 116500..

Rare and desirability are two different things. There are plenty of watches, or other items, that are rare but don’t have a lot of value. I understand the price gap completely. I’ve had both watches on my wrist.

And yes, 17 years of production but about 30 years since Rolex made the last one. How many survived at all, and how many survived in good original condition? I’d argue that the good examples are indeed rare nowadays, although I’d agree the term “rare” is open to interpretation.

[Karbo]

You agree a 16520 zenith is also not rare... but its 3 x more expensive than a 500... if desirability is important how do you explain this ?
https://www.rolexforums.com/showthre...t=16520+116520

[swish77]

Originally Posted by Karbo

You agree a 16520 zenith is also not rare... but its 3 x more expensive than a 500... if desirability is important how do you explain this ?
https://www.rolexforums.com/showthre...t=16520+116520

I don’t have the full answer, but I’d rather have a Daytona-C too. While cool, a Zenith isn’t a true vintage and it still looks like a modern Daytona, although not as pretty as the Daytona-C, IMHO. The fact that it has a Zenith movement does nothing for me, and I’d bet a lot of watch lovers feel the same way. It’s mostly about how the watch looks and feels on the wrist. Now, if you had included the 6263 in your poll, I’m fairly certain which watch would win.

[Karbo]

Ive sold my 6263 for 500 black and white.... with no regrets... I have the pleasure to wear them with no stress of losing a fkin dot lol...

[swish77]

Originally Posted by Karbo

Ive sold my 6263 for 500 black and white.... with no regrets... I have the pleasure to wear them with no stress of losing a fkin dot lol...

Well, I hope you got some cash too! Not to sound corny, but the important thing is that you’re happy, of course. Those are two beautiful modern Daytonas. Congrats!

[lhanddds]

I find it interesting that if you look at the number of viewers of the modern forum, the viewers of the vintage forum will be about 10% of that. I could be wrong but I've always kind of looked at this as a measure of the interest in vintage watches versus watches in general. This would tell me that even with such little interest, the prices are strong and going up. When the 500 came out, I was one of the few who was disappointed. I was hoping this would be my modern Rolex but it didn't do it for me. So even with a small market like it is, I don't see desirability changing for quality vintage watches.

[springer]

Originally Posted by lhanddds

I find it interesting that if you look at the number of viewers of the modern forum, the viewers of the vintage forum will be about 10% of that. I could be wrong but I've always kind of looked at this as a measure of the interest in vintage watches versus watches in general. This would tell me that even with such little interest, the prices are strong and going up. When the 500 came out, I was one of the few who was disappointed. I was hoping this would be my modern Rolex but it didn't do it for me. So even with a small market like it is, I don't see desirability changing for quality vintage watches.

I love these "what if" and doom and/or gloom threads. They always brighten my day when I read them since most collectors aren't buying vintage as a major investment - some are - but the greatest majority are not. I can't wait for the next thread on this topic.

Considering vintage Rolex is possibly 1% of Rolex market sales, having 10% viewership here in the Vintage Forum isn't too bad.

[MILGAUSS88]

How about this for doom and gloom.
Are you going to be allowed to drive a car with an internal combustion engine in 30 years?
Are you even going to be allowed to drive on a public road? Or will you be required to have a self driving car?
What would happen to the vintage car market then?

Will they just become house decorations? Or will you have to pay an exorbitant amount to go drive a car on a private track?

[dexvd]

Originally Posted by lhanddds

I find it interesting that if you look at the number of viewers of the modern forum, the viewers of the vintage forum will be about 10% of that. I could be wrong but I've always kind of looked at this as a measure of the interest in vintage watches versus watches in general. This would tell me that even with such little interest, the prices are strong and going up. When the 500 came out, I was one of the few who was disappointed. I was hoping this would be my modern Rolex but it didn't do it for me. So even with a small market like it is, I don't see desirability changing for quality vintage watches.

While the general forum are certainly 'enthusiasts' and more educated than the average person or watch owner, I see the group interested in vintage as even more interested in the story, the history... Not quite at the level of the haute horology crew perhaps who can explain to you how the complications in there watches movement work and why that is rare/special compared to others but for the vintage pieces there are still lots of great stories to be associated with related to different pieces. For example when I read the Thunderbird story, I was really struck, did more reading and research and had a 1625 in a month (I know they had an earlier ref...).

I see some of the crew in the general forum seem to be more easily relatable to a group that is checking a list off of status symbols, they have the mansion, the Porsche or BMW and a new Rolex or two. I think for a lot of these people a 6541 wouldn't be of interest to them as it wouldn't project the image they would like to project or have the intended effect.

I'm wondering if as the prices of the 5 digit references rise, perhaps some 4 digit refs will begin to fall behind or stagnate.

The Daytona market is interesting, a lot have mentioned the Zenith 16520... I think that model is kind of like the 996 911, less desirable to many but having its values dragged up along with the 930s, 993s etc.

The other thing I am thinking though is if interest shifts into newer references and away from 4 digit refs, the rarity is even harder to find than in the 4 digit refs... I'm sure there are still some odd balls out there like the black out Explorer but the lack of rarity would keep prices reasonable I would think. The Kermits are jumping in price but they were produced in the 10s of thousands I would think... there must be plenty to go around for any of the select few that is dying to have a regular sub with a green bezel.

[John Ireland]

Demographics is destiny. It doesn't matter what a watch sold for last year or last week. If no one is into watches tomorrow, the value is zero. When my stepfather passed away he swore his stamp collection was worth about $150,000. And it was at one time. But stamp collecting is dying of old age. No new collectors entering the hobby in numbers to keep it alive. The old timers sit around and buy each other's collections as the faithful die off. Vintage watches, vintage cars, fine art...they are all susceptible to the same market forces...and sooner or later they will all just be somebody's "old stuff." Don't think about price, don't worry about price, just enjoy watches...all of them...because you love the amazing little machines that they are.

[Karbo]

I don’t know what will be prices in a few years as I can’t read in my crystal ball since my cataract surgery.
But one thing I know is that a majority of « collectors » consider vintage Rolex as an investment. Its not just for the pleasure or emotional excitement that people are buying vintage rolex. There are thousands of potential hobbies in life less expensive.

2-3 years ago a nice 6263 was 45k$ and now its 75k$. That is pure speculation, rarity nor desirability can explain the growth. And yes in my eyes its a bubble but this does not mean prices will drop, look at the bitcoin.
As I cant explain the price growth rationnaly I have decided to step aside vintage.
Just I don’t see the point spending 75k for 6263 while I can have daytoC for 15k. 6263 is a fabulous watch, beautiful, but full of stress and inconvenience very difficult to wear it on my bike, underwater etc... it just became too expensive to stay in a safe. Finally wearing my 116500 is not a default choice, Its a daily beater and I love it.

[theflywrist]

Who knows what happens in the future, but why the heck should we worry anyway.

All I know is that I feel like a million bucks wearing my Vintage Daytona.
Exceptionally charming, beautiful symmetry and size, and simply mesmerising and magical on the wrist really.
If a plot chips, it would suck, but it would still look beautiful. I definitely don't worry about it happening, or I would not buy it in the first place.
If the market crashes, it shouldn't matter if you love the watch.
I picture myself wearing mine, with all the plots chipped if they will, even in 30 years, if I live to see the day.

Being worth it or not is subjective, and if one is buying it to toss in the locker in hopes of a return, I think it is a loss.
For what it's worth, of course it is a "hype", and it certainly isnt "rare". But it is hyped for a reason that is for sure. Anyone that owns and loves them them knows how special it feels to wear them.

[Karbo]

Originally Posted by theflywrist

Who knows what happens in the future, but why the heck should we worry anyway.

All I know is that I feel like a million bucks wearing my Vintage Daytona.
Exceptionally charming, beautiful symmetry and size, and simply mesmerising and magical on the wrist really.
If a plot chips, it would suck, but it would still look beautiful. I definitely don't worry about it happening, or I would not buy it in the first place.
If the market crashes, it shouldn't matter if you love the watch.
I picture myself wearing mine, with all the plots chipped if they will, even in 30 years, if I live to see the day.

Being worth it or not is subjective, and if one is buying it to toss in the locker in hopes of a return, I think it is a loss.
For what it's worth, of course it is a "hype", and it certainly isnt "rare". But it is hyped for a reason that is for sure. Anyone that owns and loves them them knows how special it feels to wear them.

Totally agree bro ! But not wealthy enough to think like this :()

[theflywrist]

Originally Posted by Karbo

Totally agree bro ! But not wealthy enough to think like this :()

Haha me neither bro!.
We only live once though :)

Hope you are well! Very pleased with the outcome of that 1675 by the way.
Have a nice weekend.

[swish77]

Originally Posted by springer

I love these "what if" and doom and/or gloom threads. They always brighten my day when I read them since most collectors aren't buying vintage as a major investment - some are - but the greatest majority are not. I can't wait for the next thread on this topic.

Considering vintage Rolex is possibly 1% of Rolex market sales, having 10% viewership here in the Vintage Forum isn't too bad.

Couldn't agree more. It's the watch collectors who LOVE vintage who are driving up the prices, because they want/need a beautiful 6263, 1675 or 5513, etc.... And those nice examples are vanishing quickly. If these great examples were being snapped up solely by guys who buy for investments, you'd see a lot more on the market, because they'd be flipping them to make money.

And in response to the reference above about Chrono24 ... Sure, there are some good vintage Rolexes on that site for sale, but many, many of them are poor examples, frankenwatches, and outright fakes. I don't consider that watch supermarket to be a good gauge of availability of fine vintage Rolexes.

I think we need another photo!

[lhanddds]

And another photo


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