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17 March 2020, 07:26 AM | #2251 |
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17 March 2020, 07:28 AM | #2252 | |
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Essentially letting the virus run it's course. "To avoid a second peak in the winter, Vallance said the U.K. would suppress the virus “but not get rid of it completely,” while focusing on protecting vulnerable groups, such as the elderly. In the meantime, other people would get sick. But since the virus causes milder illness in younger age groups, most would recover and subsequently be immune to the virus. This “herd immunity” would reduce transmission in the event of a winter resurgence. On Sky News, Vallance said that “probably about 60 percent” of people would need to be infected to achieve herd immunity." https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...ohnson/608065/ It seems like the UK plan is not to try to avoid infections but to ensure as many people as possible are infected to achieve this so called "herd immunity". I think the inevitable deaths are a high price to pay for this. The UK population is around 66 million. If as Vallance says about 60 percent become infected, as needed to achieve herd immunity it means that 36 million become infected. A very conservative estimate is a 1% death rate so you would expect 360000 deaths by following this "herd immunity" plan. In that case 250 thousand seems on the low side. |
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17 March 2020, 07:31 AM | #2253 | |
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17 March 2020, 07:32 AM | #2254 |
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What? Just about every post from him has been as scary as one can read IMO. I’m simply asking his opinion on the numbers. He seems to be in full agreement with the worst case scenario predictions so I am asking if that includes the death toll numbers. That’s all.
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17 March 2020, 07:32 AM | #2255 |
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No point in responding.
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17 March 2020, 07:41 AM | #2256 | |
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You on the other hand have claimed to be very knowledgeable with medicine and I very much believe you. I appreciate your thoughts on all of this however you also have been predicting the absolute worst on this crisis since the beginning. I’m simply asking you (and have a couple of other times as well with no answer) your opinion on the death toll for Americans over the next year. Thats all.
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17 March 2020, 07:43 AM | #2257 |
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This thread just keeps getting better
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17 March 2020, 07:44 AM | #2258 |
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After watching the daily WH press brief regarding the virus, I'm getting the distinct impression that we're headed for a mandatory self-quarantine in the USA.
The tone of the administration has changed with each passing day, more and more states are closing schools, restaurants, bars, etc... I believe this is a lead-up to the government declaring a 2 week in home quarantine. I personally wouldn't be surprised to see this happen by the end of the week. |
17 March 2020, 07:46 AM | #2259 | |
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If you accept that premise, then trying to shield the most vulnerable for as long as possible seems to make sense. Personally I also think 1% will turn out to be an overestimate for the mortality rate, but I’m not married to the idea of arguing the toss since we’re all guessing on that score.
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17 March 2020, 07:50 AM | #2260 | |
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17 March 2020, 07:52 AM | #2261 | |
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it's a bit strange you keep asking him to make some kind of formal death-toll prediction. |
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17 March 2020, 07:57 AM | #2262 | |
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I agree nobody knows. Thats what I believe. Anyway thanks man. I won’t ask him again.
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17 March 2020, 08:01 AM | #2263 | |
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Regarding the US response, too little too late to avoid deaths that perhaps could have been prevented if we started these measures a week or two ago. But better late than never, and at least the majority of Americans are on board now I think. If not, they will be when they see a saturated health care system that cannot cope with the number of sick and dying. Let's hope that when this is said and done the world at large has learned its lesson regarding pandemic preparedness. |
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17 March 2020, 08:02 AM | #2264 |
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the Coronavirus outbreak thread
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17 March 2020, 08:03 AM | #2265 |
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Let's all take a time out and watch Arnold and his donkeys give us a pep talk.
I love it! Wish my donkeys were as well behaved. The video is about half way down the page. Stay safe. https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/16/enter...cli/index.html
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17 March 2020, 08:04 AM | #2266 |
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17 March 2020, 08:05 AM | #2267 |
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Here in the Bay Area they issued a shelter in place order effective for six counties and approximately seven million residents.
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17 March 2020, 08:07 AM | #2268 | |
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the Coronavirus outbreak thread
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Possibly so - I don’t know if there is a social psychologist on the Pence team but that is the advice I think one would privide. I believe the more practical reason is because Congress hasn’t passed the bill yet. Once they do, and the President signs it, then the full enchilada may get served. If any drastic measures stirred up voters and donors, then the final bill could stall. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
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17 March 2020, 08:12 AM | #2269 | |
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17 March 2020, 08:14 AM | #2270 | |
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Might want to watch this clip of Arnold for some levity. https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/16/enter...cli/index.html
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17 March 2020, 08:49 AM | #2271 | |
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I'm as knowledgeable as any other fellow of the American College of Emergency Physicians about the aspects of the pandemic that have been made public. But I have NOT been predicting the absolute worst. I've only said that this crisis has the POTENTIAL to be very serious, and that rosy predictions of minimal problems by many at the beginning of the pandemic were almost certainly wrong. |
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17 March 2020, 09:00 AM | #2272 | |
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I have been merely asking your opinion on the possible death toll in America because you have in fact been giving your opinion on other aspects of this crisis.
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17 March 2020, 09:05 AM | #2273 |
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I just don’t believe this number, I believe you heard it but I can’t believe a first-world nation like the UK would suffer this much. Modern medicine has eliminated Polio, TB, even cured some forms of cancer. I don’t believe with all the resources and knowledge at our disposal any modern country would suffer this much from an influenza. If this were some laboratory-created super microbe (think of the movie “I am Legend”) maybe, but I honestly feel with public measures and medicinal experts working around the clock it will not get this bad.
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17 March 2020, 09:07 AM | #2274 |
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Someone PM’d me bringing up the Spanish Flu in 1915 which killed hundreds of thousands. That was 1915, we have progressed a great deal in medicine in the last 100 years.
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17 March 2020, 09:07 AM | #2275 |
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Bad news- over 600 new US cases. Good news- that’s “only” a 16% increase.
Half of the US cases are in three states- NY, Cali and Washington. Really, it’s mostly NYC, Seattle and SF. The rest of the country is in much better shape. Say a prayer for the Italians. Two countries, PRC and S. Korea, are reporting drops in active cases. I believe the numbers from S. Korea. |
17 March 2020, 09:07 AM | #2276 |
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How could his posts be anything other than scary? No state, no country, no area will escape this disaster. There is nothing unique about American lungs. The response to this pandemic in the USA, the UK and, to a lesser extent, Europe has been arrogant and negligent. Thousands or tens of thousands of your countrymen and mine will die. Your life will change, as will everybody else's. Surely "scary" is just the new normal?
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17 March 2020, 09:12 AM | #2277 | |
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17 March 2020, 09:13 AM | #2278 |
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It was 1918-1920 and killed tens of millions, without the assistance/existence of international airlines.
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17 March 2020, 09:15 AM | #2279 | |
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https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries 1543 cases and 55 deaths. Given the UK policy on this it is perfectly reasonable to expect them to have tens of millions of cases and it follows that it is perfectly reasonable to expect hundreds of thousands of deaths. Let's hope a vaccine is developed before that happens, there is promising work being done in that direction. |
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17 March 2020, 09:17 AM | #2280 |
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