Talking Stocks 2.0

[7sins]

Happy friday everyone, a few articles worth reading and thoughts behind the scenes.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-travel-surges

This is clearly an article that highlights the improving trend and strength of $BA, which is to be expected as an essential duopoly. I've been following $BA very closely, waiting for it to pull back below $225. What I think the more important take away here is airlines are placing massive plane orders as they anticipate travel to surge. I would argue this is VERY good news for a company that does the infrastructure bookings for airlines, like, ahhem, $SABR.

In addition, $SABR also does the infrastructure for hotel bookings. Air and hotel are their two largest segments with car rental bookings I believe third. Hilton sees RECORD bookings in line with travel surge that could make 2021 BIGGER than 2019. If you are not on this train you are missing out, I don't think $20 is out of the question for this year.

https://thepointsguy.com/news/hilton...ings-big-2021/


CDC Travel Guidelines Relax for More than 100 Countries, AKA MORE PLACES FOR PEOPLE TO TRAVEL AFTER BEING LOCKED UP FOR 2 YEARS

https://www.cntraveler.com/story/cdc...-100-countries

Lastly, new upgrade on $COTY:
Evercore just raised PT to $15.

Coty seen having 70% upside with Cover Girl recovery taking hold
• Evercore ISI notes that sales of mass makeup skyrocketed in April as mask mandates were lifted, with Coty's (NYSE:COTY) Cover Girl posting its first market share gain in years.
• Cover Girl is viewed as crucial for Coty. While the line only accounts for 10% of the company's sales, Evercore says it register multiples of that in terms of investment sentiment.
• Evercore says Coty is seeing a turnaround after shelf space losses ended in Q2 last year. Cover Girl is said to be modestly regaining distribution, while increasing its productivity with retailers. In addition, new Cover Girl users come from Maybelline, e.l.f. and Revlon within Walmart and Target stores - suggesting to Evercore that competitive price points and displays, and innovation are working.
• Evercore ISI keeps an Outperform rating on Coty and price target of $15 (70% upside). The 52-week high on Coty is $10.49.
• The most recent bull on Coty to pop up on Seeking Alpha is Value Investor Research with its view that Coty appears materially undervalued even under conservative assumptions.

Sue presented at a conference yesterday and was EXCELLENT, I posted a few slides below that I thought stood out to me. With the aforementioned travel demand picking up and masks coming off, you better believe makeup and fragrance sales are going to substantially increase. Look at the charts below and their significant acceleration in growth but I think MORE importantly, re-branding to be a big player in luxury (look at their Gucci makeup sales) and turning around covergirl as well. A ship this size does not turn around over night but Sue is making HUGE progress. As I said a few pages ago to get our prior to ER than buy back in the 8s. We will be back in the 10s shortly, will be adding to my Jan 2023 $10c and $12C on the dips.

Look at the accelerating growth moving 3 mos YoY to 1 mos YoY


HUGE HUGE opportunity to penetrate asia and grow sales, this was an initiative Sue just started


Look at the significant market share gains for cover girl, notice that this really picked up as the world started to re-open. Remember COTY has a large presence in Europe, as they re-open more, demand for makeup will increase.



Already making an impact in China with as aforementioned, much more room to grow.


I realize that is more than any of us want to learn about makeup but put that aside, look at the trends, look at YoY comps, look at the immense upside in their global expansion efforts. Further upside to come, Evercore PT at $15 as I mentioned earlier, that I think is very realistic by year end. Option pricing here on 2023 calls at $15 represent 200%+.

[CoveWatch]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Happy friday everyone, a few articles worth reading and thoughts behind the scenes.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-travel-surges

This is clearly an article that highlights the improving trend and strength of $BA, which is to be expected as an essential duopoly. I've been following $BA very closely, waiting for it to pull back below $225. What I think the more important take away here is airlines are placing massive plane orders as they anticipate travel to surge. I would argue this is VERY good news for a company that does the infrastructure bookings for airlines, like, ahhem, $SABR.

In addition, $SABR also does the infrastructure for hotel bookings. Air and hotel are their two largest segments with car rental bookings I believe third. Hilton sees RECORD bookings in line with travel surge that could make 2021 BIGGER than 2019. If you are not on this train you are missing out, I don't think $20 is out of the question for this year.

https://thepointsguy.com/news/hilton...ings-big-2021/


CDC Travel Guidelines Relax for More than 100 Countries, AKA MORE PLACES FOR PEOPLE TO TRAVEL AFTER BEING LOCKED UP FOR 2 YEARS

https://www.cntraveler.com/story/cdc...-100-countries

Lastly, new upgrade on $COTY:
Evercore just raised PT to $15.

Coty seen having 70% upside with Cover Girl recovery taking hold
• Evercore ISI notes that sales of mass makeup skyrocketed in April as mask mandates were lifted, with Coty's (NYSE:COTY) Cover Girl posting its first market share gain in years.
• Cover Girl is viewed as crucial for Coty. While the line only accounts for 10% of the company's sales, Evercore says it register multiples of that in terms of investment sentiment.
• Evercore says Coty is seeing a turnaround after shelf space losses ended in Q2 last year. Cover Girl is said to be modestly regaining distribution, while increasing its productivity with retailers. In addition, new Cover Girl users come from Maybelline, e.l.f. and Revlon within Walmart and Target stores - suggesting to Evercore that competitive price points and displays, and innovation are working.
• Evercore ISI keeps an Outperform rating on Coty and price target of $15 (70% upside). The 52-week high on Coty is $10.49.
• The most recent bull on Coty to pop up on Seeking Alpha is Value Investor Research with its view that Coty appears materially undervalued even under conservative assumptions.

Sue presented at a conference yesterday and was EXCELLENT, I posted a few slides below that I thought stood out to me. With the aforementioned travel demand picking up and masks coming off, you better believe makeup and fragrance sales are going to substantially increase. Look at the charts below and their significant acceleration in growth but I think MORE importantly, re-branding to be a big player in luxury (look at their Gucci makeup sales) and turning around covergirl as well. A ship this size does not turn around over night but Sue is making HUGE progress. As I said a few pages ago to get our prior to ER than buy back in the 8s. We will be back in the 10s shortly, will be adding to my Jan 2023 $10c and $12C on the dips.

Look at the accelerating growth moving 3 mos YoY to 1 mos YoY


HUGE HUGE opportunity to penetrate asia and grow sales, this was an initiative Sue just started


Look at the significant market share gains for cover girl, notice that this really picked up as the world started to re-open. Remember COTY has a large presence in Europe, as they re-open more, demand for makeup will increase.



Already making an impact in China with as aforementioned, much more room to grow.


I realize that is more than any of us want to learn about makeup but put that aside, look at the trends, look at YoY comps, look at the immense upside in their global expansion efforts. Further upside to come, Evercore PT at $15 as I mentioned earlier, that I think is very realistic by year end. Option pricing here on 2023 calls at $15 represent 200%+.

Thanks for the info, how can you say no to all that.. I’m in!

[yoast]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Happy friday everyone, a few articles worth reading and thoughts behind the scenes.

Great Post! Thanks!

[austinp]

Thanks to all the contributors on this thread. I’ve learned a lot from all of you. Up 11% overall YTD which I’m very happy with. Have a great weekend!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Letsgodiving]

Originally Posted by austinp

Thanks to all the contributors on this thread. I’ve learned a lot from all of you. Up 11% overall YTD which I’m very happy with. Have a great weekend!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

That is a nice YTD return although it is below the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq YTD. The vast majority of people underperform the indexes including most professionals so you are not alone.

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by Letsgodiving

That is a nice YTD return although it is below the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdag YTD. The vast majority of people underperform the indexes including most professionals so you are not alone.

Wealthfront 8/10 risk passive portfolio for my 529 and IRA accounts is 11.6% this year. Zero effort. Zero fees paid other than vanguard minuscule ETF fees. I quit the trading hustle a few years ago when I realized I was at best breaking even vs SPY

[Letsgodiving]

Originally Posted by EEpro

Wealthfront 8/10 risk passive portfolio for my 529 and IRA accounts is 11.6% this year. Zero effort. Zero fees paid other than vanguard minuscule ETF fees. I quit the trading hustle a few years ago when I realized I was at best breaking even vs SPY

Yes, when you factor in the fees/expense ratios many pay the underperformance just gets worse especially over the long haul.

[austinp]

Originally Posted by Letsgodiving

That is a nice YTD return although it is below the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq YTD. The vast majority of people underperform the indexes including most professionals so you are not alone.

11.6% to be exact. I think its a little ahead of the Nasdaq. If AAPL would get going maybe I could catch the other indexes .


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Letsgodiving]

Originally Posted by austinp

11.6% to be exact. I think its a little ahead of the Nasdaq. If AAPL would get going maybe I could catch the other indexes .


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

My mistake, you're right on the Nasdaq. Plenty of time in the year for AAPL to make a move. Good luck.

[7sins]

More than 2 million TSA screens on Friday, HIGHEST since pandemic hit. Don't fight the trend!!
https://www.usatoday.com/story/trave...ne/7666912002/

Originally Posted by What’s The Time

Came across a stock I absolutely love and wanted to share. I've been following silently here the past several months and appreciate the advice everyone contributes as I've found it incredibly valuable. Hope this can help contribute and I'd love to hear some insight as to what others think.

HZAC is taking Vivid Seats, a secondary marketplace in the ticketing industry public via SPAC. Current share price values the company at just under 2b.

I have worked and been very successful in the ticketing industry for the past 8 years and do business with Vivid Seats regularly. For the past 5-6 years there has been a clear and evident trend of Vivid Seats on the rise as compared to their competitors (Stubhub, Seatgeek, Gametime, etc.) Stubhub is generally seen by the public as the top source of secondary market tickets but my sales as well as many colleagues have seen a drastic decline through their site and a massive uptick in sales on Vivid. Furthermore, Stubhub's reputation with their sellers has taken a MASSIVE hit due to their policies throughout Covid. They have restricted cash flow and are still working with minimal customer service while Vivid Seats is fully operational and providing their sellers with sufficient cash flow. It has become a running joke and reality that many sellers hold back their inventory from Stubhub.

Ebay sold Stubhub to Viagogo in February 2020 for 4b and with Vivid Seats as the current industry favorite, I have to assume it will overtake Stubhub's valuation in a rapidly growing industry.

Has this been on anyone elses radar? Any thoughts?


https://www.horizonacquisitioncorp.c...21.2021_vF.pdf

Any other thoughts here? Did you move forward with a position? I've been doing research in my free time and think this could be an excellent re-opening play, I believe concerts and sporting events will be in very high demand as the economy keeps re-opening. Look at Live Nation and MSG. Can't find a merger date, the SPAC isn't moving at all but the warrants have been slowly moving up. Also were you able to find the amount of debt they currently have? I went through the deck and S1, couldn't find their current debt other than the amount of the SPAC equity going to pay down debt. Pretty remarkable to have a profitable company, rev est in 2022 north of $2B and be valued at ~$1.9B - short of excessive debt, this could be a hidden gem.

[huncho]

anyone here in baba or have any thoughts on it? been getting beat up since october due to all of jack ma's antics and controversies but now it's back to 2019 levels basically. i'm not a big fan of getting into chinese companies but opened a small position in it since it seems like it should be bottomed out

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by huncho

anyone here in baba or have any thoughts on it? been getting beat up since october due to all of jack ma's antics and controversies but now it's back to 2019 levels basically. i'm not a big fan of getting into chinese companies but opened a small position in it since it seems like it should be bottomed out

That call could be totally wrong. I have owned BABA in the past, but I have a bias against owning Chinese stocks because they are not a capitalist country and their government interferes with their corporations. No rule of law. Look at all the companies whose assets were expropriated by Cuba and Venezuela. Rather invest in US, Canadian and European countries.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

That call could be totally wrong. I have owned BABA in the past, but I have a bias against owning Chinese stocks because they are not a capitalist country and their government interferes with their corporations. No rule of law. Look at all the companies whose assets were expropriated by Cuba and Venezuela. Rather invest in US, Canadian and European countries.

i agree 100%, it's much more of a gamble than anything but i'm planning to keep it a small position. you never know with these chinese companies

[scarlet knight]

No problem taking a flyer. I do so myself to a limited degree. As long as you are aware of the risks.

[CoveWatch]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Any other thoughts here? Did you move forward with a position? I've been doing research in my free time and think this could be an excellent re-opening play, I believe concerts and sporting events will be in very high demand as the economy keeps re-opening. Look at Live Nation and MSG. Can't find a merger date, the SPAC isn't moving at all but the warrants have been slowly moving up. Also were you able to find the amount of debt they currently have? I went through the deck and S1, couldn't find their current debt other than the amount of the SPAC equity going to pay down debt. Pretty remarkable to have a profitable company, rev est in 2022 north of $2B and be valued at ~$1.9B - short of excessive debt, this could be a hidden gem.

I like entertainment/events reopening plays and have been looking for one or two to get in as well. They won’t have a merger date yet because I don’t think they’ve filed an s-4/PREM14A for merger yet. So at least a couple months before merger takes place (s-4 filed , then likely several amendments, then the final s-4 with merger date with the customary 14-21 day period before actual merger.)

On vivid, $2b seems to be order value and rev at $450m for ‘22? I could be wrong, but would make a big difference in value. They also seems to estimate their growth at a lower pace than Livenation or eventbrite.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by CoveWatch

I like entertainment/events reopening plays and have been looking for one or two to get in as well. They won’t have a merger date yet because I don’t think they’ve filed an s-4/PREM14A for merger yet. So at least a couple months before merger takes place (s-4 filed , then likely several amendments, then the final s-4 with merger date with the customary 14-21 day period before actual merger.)

On vivid, $2b seems to be order value and rev at $450m for ‘22? I could be wrong, but would make a big difference in value. They also seems to estimate their growth at a lower pace than Livenation or eventbrite.

My mistake on gross vs net rev, looks like TGOV is projected at 2.3B next year and 459M net Revenue for 2022. Which I thought was odd, the projection was lower than 2019 actual numbers. Unless perhaps they are not expecting as many concerts to drive more net revenue? FCF next year at $116M looks great too, which at least they are profitable.

So that begs the question, what would be a proper valuation and what marketshare do they take from peers like stubhub etc? Using bumble as a comparable benchmark was laughable. I think eventbrite is probably a fair comp and one of few that are publicly traded. Looks like vivid trading at about half the value on EV/EBITDA and EV/Revenue as compared to Eventbrite with roughly same EV.




I checked the SEC and looks like no updates besides the normal 8k/10k reports. Will keep this on the watch list and maybe buy warrants on the next market pullback and play the long game. Still surprised it is trading at the $10 floor, no premium what-so-ever. Could be interesting, especially the more I look into how EB has been trading on a relative basis over the last year (albeit low float low vol).

Another positive is the founders are converting their Promote shares (zero cost aka free) into Warrants. So now they have much more vested interest in the success.

A red flag is looking at EBITDA, look at 17-19, very little EBITDA growth at all then look at 30%+ EBITDA growth from 22-24. That seems a bit optimistic to me.

[What’s The Time]

Originally Posted by 7sins

More than 2 million TSA screens on Friday, HIGHEST since pandemic hit. Don't fight the trend!!
https://www.usatoday.com/story/trave...ne/7666912002/



Any other thoughts here? Did you move forward with a position? I've been doing research in my free time and think this could be an excellent re-opening play, I believe concerts and sporting events will be in very high demand as the economy keeps re-opening. Look at Live Nation and MSG. Can't find a merger date, the SPAC isn't moving at all but the warrants have been slowly moving up. Also were you able to find the amount of debt they currently have? I went through the deck and S1, couldn't find their current debt other than the amount of the SPAC equity going to pay down debt. Pretty remarkable to have a profitable company, rev est in 2022 north of $2B and be valued at ~$1.9B - short of excessive debt, this could be a hidden gem.

Yes with how fast the industry has rebounded and is growing it does seem to be a hidden gem. I was not able to find a number for the debt Vivid Seats currently owns either. This seems to be a missing piece.

Just for perspective, based on the numbers my company is running we have doubled our ticket sales April 2019 vs April 2021 and doubled our sales May 2019 vs May 2021. Out of those sales, the sales we have had through Vivid Seats have slightly more than doubled April 2019 vs April 2021 and more than tripled May 2019 vs May 2021. We are a large preferred seller of Vivid and I am sure other big players in the industry have seen similar numbers. Concert and sports tickets have have exceeded pre-pandemic demand for the past couple months and I am confident the trend will continue.

And again, I think Ebay's sale of Stubhub back in 2019 is a good reference for the valuation of Vivid.

I entered a position back when I originally posted this for HZAC warrants which are now up 24%. I will be holding throughout the merger which is planned to take place some time in Q4. My belief in Vivid is based off my expertise in the ticketing industry, so if there are any red flags I seem to be missing please feel free to share.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by What’s The Time

Just for perspective, based on the numbers my company is running we have doubled our ticket sales April 2019 vs April 2021 and doubled our sales May 2019 vs May 2021. Out of those sales, the sales we have had through Vivid Seats have slightly more than doubled April 2019 vs April 2021 and more than tripled May 2019 vs May 2021.

THANK YOU, your comments are very helpful and insightful. One followup question on the above, more for my own clarity if you don't mind. Have your 19/21 comp sales doubled because of volume or because the price of the tickets are going up? I suspect a bit of both? That is truly remarkable, I don't want to extrapolate that to other sellers but if they are seeing the same then Vivid is under-estimating their numbers.

Do you think this trend would continue going forward as we see demand tick up, with only so many events/tickets to be sold, pushing prices up much higher and ultimately more revenue/better margins for Vivid?

Should have took a bite of those warrants when you mentioned them, certainly has been a divergence as the SPAC price hasn't moved and warrants are steadily rising.

Congrats on your success in this business and sharing insight to a marketplace I haven't thought much about.

[What’s The Time]

Originally Posted by 7sins

THANK YOU, your comments are very helpful and insightful. One followup question on the above, more for my own clarity if you don't mind. Have your 19/21 comp sales doubled because of volume or because the price of the tickets are going up? I suspect a bit of both? That is truly remarkable, I don't want to extrapolate that to other sellers but if they are seeing the same then Vivid is under-estimating their numbers.

Do you think this trend would continue going forward as we see demand tick up, with only so many events/tickets to be sold, pushing prices up much higher and ultimately more revenue/better margins for Vivid?

Should have took a bite of those warrants when you mentioned them, certainly has been a divergence as the SPAC price hasn't moved and warrants are steadily rising.

Congrats on your success in this business and sharing insight to a marketplace I haven't thought much about.

Our sales have risen because of a combination of volume, price of tickets, and company growth. In terms of volume, for the same months, April 2019 vs April 2021 and May 2019 vs May 2021 we have seen an increase of 56% and 72% in the number of tickets sold. A large portion of this can be attributed to company growth - we have increased the amount of clients we manage tickets for. But when looking into individual clients numbers that we have held prior to 2019, the trend in total sales, number of tickets sold, and average price per ticket have risen across the board.

We are just one of Vivid's many preferred sellers but based off conversations with others in the industry everyone is benefiting from this pent up demand from Covid and seeing similar results.

Many artists have been fighting to book dates for shows in the fall and into 2022. As new tours continue to be announced and previously announced events continue to take place Vivid will see continued revenue. The pandemic was definitely a massive hiccup for the industry but for the past 8 years I have been involved sales have been increasing every year. And it seems everyone's biggest worry of if people will still want to attend concerts in a post pandemic world has been wiped away.

Happy to share and thanks for the kind words. We are a microcosm of the industry as a whole and investing in stocks is not my expertise but I hope this helps everyone make a more informed decision :)

[CoveWatch]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Another positive is the founders are converting their Promote shares (zero cost aka free) into Warrants. So now they have much more vested interest in the success.

A red flag is looking at EBITDA, look at 17-19, very little EBITDA growth at all then look at 30%+ EBITDA growth from 22-24. That seems a bit optimistic to me.

Founder share conversion is a nice sign, definitely. To your last point, that’s the issue with most spac deals these days.. the overly optimistic revenue and/or growth projections which sometimes can look ridiculous.

For vivid, as Whats the time pointed out, sales seem to be growing and taking market share from the big players seem to be on the horizon for that, unless they’re increasing their TAM as well. The only red flags for me currrently is in their investor deck where they’re using random comps (like the Bumble one you mentioned) and the fact that in their own optimistic estimates, they will have less yoy growth by 2023 than eventbrite or livenation (the only two relevant comps that they chose to have imo). Doesn’t really scream confidence to me. In terms of debt, I’m going to assume that $670m from hzac pays off all their debt outright for now.

[CoveWatch]

Originally Posted by What’s The Time

Our sales have risen because of a combination of volume, price of tickets, and company growth. In terms of volume, for the same months, April 2019 vs April 2021 and May 2019 vs May 2021 we have seen an increase of 56% and 72% in the number of tickets sold. A large portion of this can be attributed to company growth - we have increased the amount of clients we manage tickets for. But when looking into individual clients numbers that we have held prior to 2019, the trend in total sales, number of tickets sold, and average price per ticket have risen across the board.

We are just one of Vivid's many preferred sellers but based off conversations with others in the industry everyone is benefiting from this pent up demand from Covid and seeing similar results.

Many artists have been fighting to book dates for shows in the fall and into 2022. As new tours continue to be announced and previously announced events continue to take place Vivid will see continued revenue. The pandemic was definitely a massive hiccup for the industry but for the past 8 years I have been involved sales have been increasing every year. And it seems everyone's biggest worry of if people will still want to attend concerts in a post pandemic world has been wiped away.

Happy to share and thanks for the kind words. We are a microcosm of the industry as a whole and investing in stocks is not my expertise but I hope this helps everyone make a more informed decision :)

That’s great information, thank you

[What’s The Time]

Originally Posted by CoveWatch

Founder share conversion is a nice sign, definitely. To your last point, that’s the issue with most spac deals these days.. the overly optimistic revenue and/or growth projections which sometimes can look ridiculous.

For vivid, as Whats the time pointed out, sales seem to be growing and taking market share from the big players seem to be on the horizon for that, unless they’re increasing their TAM as well. The only red flags for me currrently is in their investor deck where they’re using random comps (like the Bumble one you mentioned) and the fact that in their own optimistic estimates, they will have less yoy growth by 2023 than eventbrite or livenation (the only two relevant comps that they chose to have imo). Doesn’t really scream confidence to me. In terms of debt, I’m going to assume that $670m from hzac pays off all their debt outright for now.

It is a bit odd that they did that. They may have comped random marketplaces like Etsy, Airbnb, etc because there are no other publicly traded ticket marketplaces to compare to.

Livenation, which owns Ticketmaster, and Eventbrite are both primary marketplaces for tickets (although Ticketmaster does partake in the secondary market as well through Ticketmaster Verified) Eventbrite makes money off the primary sale of tickets where Vivid makes money off commissions from both the person who sells a ticket as well as the person who buy a ticket. Vivid however will not receive 100% of the inventory that Eventbrite or Ticketmaster sold.

[jaisonline]

I used to be a StubHub Large Seller before eBay purchased them. I know the tix business pretty well and have friends who are ticket brokers. Will speak w/ them.

Now I’m very interested in Vivid Seats. Need to do some homework. Thanks fellas for posting about the HZAC SPAC.

[AshCashEmAll]

I can say first hand that Vividseats took the best approach to keep large sellers happy post-pandemic. This was mainly due to a policy that allowed large sellers to get paid out 14 days once orders were delivered to buyers as opposed to Stubhub and even Ticketmaster that would not pay until after the event!

With certain resell exchanges holding payouts for months this obviously incentivized many brokers to solely list their inventory on Vividseats so that they can maintain cashflow and continue to purchase more inventory. This lasted for a couple of months and I believe exchanges such as Stubhub have realized the damage done which is why they changed their policy just in the last 2 weeks to mirror that of Vividseats.

I could see vividseats taking the concerts and sports resell sector by a storm. As of today my personal company has sold a little over 50% of its volume on vividseats while my other inventory is split amongst other exchanges i.e. Ticketmaster resale, seatgeek, stubhub, gametime, ticketnetwork, etc...

I would like to add that I personally never delisted my inventory on other exchanges due to their payout policies but I know a lot of brokers that did because they did not want to wait months to get their money.

Just my personal experience as a seller in this industry and definitely could be bias here.

[gabrielnovar]

still think the mega infinity squeeze happens in MSTR

Low Float: only 7 mil shares

Buying up all the BTC and demand is insane when they raise money

Possibly shell company for the FED to be buying bitcoin without alarming any other country

Shorts around 20%+

Becoming a levered vehicle for Hedge funds

Literally the most exciting stock I have EVER seen in my 20 + years.

If BTC pops off this will have an epic run like we have never seen.

Talk about putting all the chips on the table GOOD LUCK


toss a couple bucks and let it ride, if BTC dies you lose a little amount. If btc rips to 400k you get 1-5X+ the returns due to shorts and low float.

[7sins]

For those following along on SOFI, new coverage initiated (second one now) at outperform, PT $30 which is about 70% upside. I am hearing them be called the trinity with SQ and PYPL. Continues to be a great long term hold and interesting note below on the intiation. Small float today but I believe float is going to move significantly higher end of month which could create downside vol and add on the dips.

Also, for those with a quick few minutes, great short read on tech making a case it will go higher: https://money.yahoo.com/3-historic-p...133034044.html. I suspect we see some vol over the summer months.



SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ: SOFI) just received its second formal analyst rating after completing its SPAC merger on June 1. As with the first rating, the second rating is a Buy, giving the company a perfect 10/10 analyst rating score.

After the close Tuesday, Rosenblatt analyst Sean Horgan initiated coverage on the stock with a Buy rating and $30 price target.

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Horgan said SoFi has a "powerful cost advantage over incumbents which will lead to dramatic disintermediation over the next 5-10 years, leaving substantial primary bank accounts, revenues, and market value up for grabs."

According to the firm's research, challengers like SoFi have customer acquisition costs (CAC) typically ranging from $20-$50, versus up to $1,000 for traditional banks.

The low cost is possible due to a de minimus physical footprint and viral marketing / P2P network effects as evidenced by the success of Cash App (SQ: Buy) and Venmo (PYPL: Buy), Horgan said.

"The shift is already underway, as young people ask their parents to "Venmo them" some money," Horgan commented. "This is a much more powerful customer acquisition tool as compared to checking your bank balance or receiving promotional credit card offers in the mail. This is critical to the success we expect for challenger banks."

While competition and consolidation are likely to follow for mobile-first banks, the big bank challenger banks face a “jump ball” opportunity to seize market share from the old guard, the analyst added.

He sees SOFI as well-positioned to capture a significant amount of the value hanging in the balance.

As for catalysts, the analyst sees the pending national bank charter as a "meaningful catalyst."

The average price target between the two analysts is $27.50, suggesting 32% upside from the current levels.

[jaisonline]

Hi 7sin,

No concerns with further SOFI shares’ unlocking ?

I’m also high on SOFI at current price levels & long term outlook

Originally Posted by 7sins

For those following along on SOFI, new coverage initiated (second one now) at outperform, PT $30 which is about 70% upside. I am hearing them be called the trinity with SQ and PYPL. Continues to be a great long term hold and interesting note below on the intiation. Small float today but I believe float is going to move significantly higher end of month which could create downside vol and add on the dips.

Also, for those with a quick few minutes, great short read on tech making a case it will go higher: https://money.yahoo.com/3-historic-p...133034044.html. I suspect we see some vol over the summer months.



SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ: SOFI) just received its second formal analyst rating after completing its SPAC merger on June 1. As with the first rating, the second rating is a Buy, giving the company a perfect 10/10 analyst rating score.

After the close Tuesday, Rosenblatt analyst Sean Horgan initiated coverage on the stock with a Buy rating and $30 price target.

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Horgan said SoFi has a "powerful cost advantage over incumbents which will lead to dramatic disintermediation over the next 5-10 years, leaving substantial primary bank accounts, revenues, and market value up for grabs."

According to the firm's research, challengers like SoFi have customer acquisition costs (CAC) typically ranging from $20-$50, versus up to $1,000 for traditional banks.

The low cost is possible due to a de minimus physical footprint and viral marketing / P2P network effects as evidenced by the success of Cash App (SQ: Buy) and Venmo (PYPL: Buy), Horgan said.

"The shift is already underway, as young people ask their parents to "Venmo them" some money," Horgan commented. "This is a much more powerful customer acquisition tool as compared to checking your bank balance or receiving promotional credit card offers in the mail. This is critical to the success we expect for challenger banks."

While competition and consolidation are likely to follow for mobile-first banks, the big bank challenger banks face a “jump ball” opportunity to seize market share from the old guard, the analyst added.

He sees SOFI as well-positioned to capture a significant amount of the value hanging in the balance.

As for catalysts, the analyst sees the pending national bank charter as a "meaningful catalyst."

The average price target between the two analysts is $27.50, suggesting 32% upside from the current levels.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

Hi 7sin,

No concerns with further SOFI shares’ unlocking ?

I’m also high on SOFI at current price levels & long term outlook

Definitely a concern with shares unlocking, I think current float is 67m shares and it will be closer to 800M after unlocking. I have found share unlocks to be much more detrimental for companies that are grossly overvalued, like the play we did on $SNOW a few months back. Not so much the case here with SOFI and from my experience, share unlocks from IPOs have been more severe than SPACS. Typically they bounce back if they were not overvalued.

The question is, when shares unlock, how many look to cash in and sell or hold (or do investors see more upside and not sell, new $30pt helps)? If more look to sell, I am not sure we can hold $22 levels. My personal plan is to trim about 30% of my warrants, should SOFI dip or pullback with the market, I will use that cash along with adding additional monies to 2023 leaps for SOFI. One could also buy one month puts, $20P are ~$1.15 as insurance protection against a long position should an unlock takes the wind out of its sails. SOFI is a long term hold for me and will look to add where I can.

[hkuo]

Just bought more COTY Jan 2023 $10C. Been watching it for a while and I couldn’t resist at the current price.

[AshCashEmAll]

Originally Posted by hkuo

Just bought more COTY Jan 2023 $10C. Been watching it for a while and I couldn’t resist at the current price.

Same here I’ve been DCA’ing the last three days but today would’ve been a great time to buy


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